car sales indicator suggests recession nearby

[OS]

link

The contention is that % change in car sales is closely linked to economic activity and has in the past accurately marked recessions.

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: OS
link

The contention is that % change in car sales is closely linked to economic activity and has in the past accurately marked recessions.

And at the same time copper futures, whcih are a benchmark of economic health, remain strong. The auto sales stats are interesting, but we will have to see how things turn out.

 

[halik]

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: OS
link

The contention is that % change in car sales is closely linked to economic activity and has in the past accurately marked recessions.

And at the same time copper futures, whcih are a benchmark of economic health, remain strong. The auto sales stats are interesting, but we will have to see how things turn out.

Not to mention that the yeild curve and credit and liquidity spreads are still holding on as well

 

[OS]

Originally posted by: halik

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: OS
link

The contention is that % change in car sales is closely linked to economic activity and has in the past accurately marked recessions.

And at the same time copper futures, whcih are a benchmark of economic health, remain strong. The auto sales stats are interesting, but we will have to see how things turn out.

Not to mention that the yeild curve and credit and liquidity spreads are still holding on as well

does this show a slightly inverted yield curve?

link

 

[LunarRay]

Ceteris Paribus perhaps..
That indicator assumes the dynamics that drive car sales also have driven all relevant aspects of the economy historically that resulted in recessive quarters and progressive ones.
I believe that there is independence between the auto industry sales and interest rates for instance. And that Sales are more controlled by Car Manufacturers and the Dealers by their use of promotions than the price of gas (with in reason).
I look first to the psychological atmosphere and what seems to be afoot there and who wants to 'feel good' and thereby stimulate to some extent the market or who might be too scared to invest in another 5 years of debt cuz the gas price went up...
I know some don't accept as fallacy the notion 'post hoc ergo propter hoc' but I do.. and find most any reasoning that suggests that the second event was caused by the first event because the first event preceded the second to be unsound or coincidental at best.... at least in my understanding of Economics's social issues.
However, in some cases I find it true.. like the suggestion of the thread.. It can cause a recession to occur if enough folks believe it and act accordingly.. heheh

 

[theeedude]

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: OS
link

The contention is that % change in car sales is closely linked to economic activity and has in the past accurately marked recessions.

And at the same time copper futures, whcih are a benchmark of economic health, remain strong. The auto sales stats are interesting, but we will have to see how things turn out.

Copper (and pretty much all other commodity) futures are strong on demand from China and other emerging economies.
http://www.ame.com.au/guest/cu/cuss.jpg
Commodity prices and US economic cycle aren't very closely coupled anymore.

 

[halik]

Originally posted by: OS

Originally posted by: halik

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: OS
link

The contention is that % change in car sales is closely linked to economic activity and has in the past accurately marked recessions.

And at the same time copper futures, whcih are a benchmark of economic health, remain strong. The auto sales stats are interesting, but we will have to see how things turn out.

Not to mention that the yeild curve and credit and liquidity spreads are still holding on as well

does this show a slightly inverted yield curve?

link

yeah it's been like that for a while (the street expect ben to stop raising rates),
I actually talked to a hedge fund manager about that couple days ago - apparently a slightly inverted curve is not that big of a problem, but when the 3year and 5year trasures take a nose dive, shiat will hit the fan.

Eveyone has been saying watch out for 2007...

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: senseamp

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: OS
link

The contention is that % change in car sales is closely linked to economic activity and has in the past accurately marked recessions.

And at the same time copper futures, whcih are a benchmark of economic health, remain strong. The auto sales stats are interesting, but we will have to see how things turn out.

Copper (and pretty much all other commodity) futures are strong on demand from China and other emerging economies.
http://www.ame.com.au/guest/cu/cuss.jpg
Commodity prices and US economic cycle aren't very closely coupled anymore.

I would disagree. It is difficult to make anything without using copper. And our manufacturing output continues to climb.

 

[theeedude]

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: senseamp

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: OS
link

The contention is that % change in car sales is closely linked to economic activity and has in the past accurately marked recessions.

And at the same time copper futures, whcih are a benchmark of economic health, remain strong. The auto sales stats are interesting, but we will have to see how things turn out.

Copper (and pretty much all other commodity) futures are strong on demand from China and other emerging economies.
http://www.ame.com.au/guest/cu/cuss.jpg
Commodity prices and US economic cycle aren't very closely coupled anymore.

I would disagree. It is difficult to make anything without using copper. And our manufacturing output continues to climb.

Disagree about what? I didn't say US doesn't contribute to copper demand, but now there are other big players, so you can't just predict copper prices based on US economic cycle and the other way around. US could be in a recession and copper prices could still go up due to demand from China offsetting drop in US demand.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: senseamp

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: OS
link

The contention is that % change in car sales is closely linked to economic activity and has in the past accurately marked recessions.

And at the same time copper futures, whcih are a benchmark of economic health, remain strong. The auto sales stats are interesting, but we will have to see how things turn out.

Copper (and pretty much all other commodity) futures are strong on demand from China and other emerging economies.
http://www.ame.com.au/guest/cu/cuss.jpg
Commodity prices and US economic cycle aren't very closely coupled anymore.

I would disagree. It is difficult to make anything without using copper. And our manufacturing output continues to climb.

When you say "our" manufacturing output do you mean made here in the U.S. or on a global scale.

The U.S. is hardly producing anything, we're still doing more importing than exporting.

The amount of Hanjin cargo containers has still been steadily increasing.

Also I've noticed other than corn we don't grwo any agriculture either, just about everything I see in the supermarket is either from a South American Country or Canada.

Apparently Canada has warmed up nicely thanks to global warming to produce what used to be produced in the southern U.S.

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: LunarRay
Ceteris Paribus perhaps..

'post hoc ergo propter hoc'

LOL, are we in Rome?

 

[LunarRay]

Originally posted by: Skoorb

Originally posted by: LunarRay
Ceteris Paribus perhaps..

'post hoc ergo propter hoc'

LOL, are we in Rome?

I'm in So. Cal..

The latin terms have such a nice ring to them that I use them alot just to hear me say them... They do, however, define a very specific notion of Economic Theory so they do have usage clearly understood by the Greeks... hehe

 

[zephyrprime]

Copper is an indicator of economic health? Since when?

 

[Deptacon]

Originally posted by: zephyrprime
Copper is an indicator of economic health? Since when?

since the armchair economists here on the boards talked about economics at the top of this thread :roll:

 

[Jaskalas]

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: OS
link

The contention is that % change in car sales is closely linked to economic activity and has in the past accurately marked recessions.

And at the same time copper futures, whcih are a benchmark of economic health, remain strong. The auto sales stats are interesting, but we will have to see how things turn out.

If this only looked at GM and Ford then the answer is simple - China is beating them to death.

 

[XZeroII]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: senseamp

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: OS
link

The contention is that % change in car sales is closely linked to economic activity and has in the past accurately marked recessions.

And at the same time copper futures, whcih are a benchmark of economic health, remain strong. The auto sales stats are interesting, but we will have to see how things turn out.

Copper (and pretty much all other commodity) futures are strong on demand from China and other emerging economies.
http://www.ame.com.au/guest/cu/cuss.jpg
Commodity prices and US economic cycle aren't very closely coupled anymore.

I would disagree. It is difficult to make anything without using copper. And our manufacturing output continues to climb.

When you say "our" manufacturing output do you mean made here in the U.S. or on a global scale.

The U.S. is hardly producing anything, we're still doing more importing than exporting.

The amount of Hanjin cargo containers has still been steadily increasing.

Also I've noticed other than corn we don't grwo any agriculture either, just about everything I see in the supermarket is either from a South American Country or Canada.

Apparently Canada has warmed up nicely thanks to global warming to produce what used to be produced in the southern U.S.

Yea, that extra 0.1 degrees F has been a real help to Canada's agricutural marketplace.



Seriously though, there is no single indicator that can predict a recession. They just find weird patterns. Kind of like how they would say that Brett Favre has never lost a game at Lameau Field when the weather is below 29 degrees. Sure, it may be true but that doesn't mean anything about the future.

Just because I've only been in car accidents on Fridays doesn't mean that I should never drive on Fridays. It's usually just coincidence.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: XZeroII

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: senseamp

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: OS
link

The contention is that % change in car sales is closely linked to economic activity and has in the past accurately marked recessions.

And at the same time copper futures, whcih are a benchmark of economic health, remain strong. The auto sales stats are interesting, but we will have to see how things turn out.

Copper (and pretty much all other commodity) futures are strong on demand from China and other emerging economies.
http://www.ame.com.au/guest/cu/cuss.jpg
Commodity prices and US economic cycle aren't very closely coupled anymore.

I would disagree. It is difficult to make anything without using copper. And our manufacturing output continues to climb.

When you say "our" manufacturing output do you mean made here in the U.S. or on a global scale.

The U.S. is hardly producing anything, we're still doing more importing than exporting.

The amount of Hanjin cargo containers has still been steadily increasing.

Also I've noticed other than corn we don't grwo any agriculture either, just about everything I see in the supermarket is either from a South American Country or Canada.

Apparently Canada has warmed up nicely thanks to global warming to produce what used to be produced in the southern U.S.

Yea, that extra 0.1 degrees F has been a real help to Canada's agricutural marketplace.

Seriously though, there is no single indicator that can predict a recession. They just find weird patterns. Kind of like how they would say that Brett Favre has never lost a game at Lameau Field when the weather is below 29 degrees. Sure, it may be true but that doesn't mean anything about the future.

Just because I've only been in car accidents on Fridays doesn't mean that I should never drive on Fridays. It's usually just coincidence.

Wow are you confused.

That is classic brainwashing, bringing completely different subjects to appear the same.

Until you shake that and can clearly see the difference, you will lost forever.

So sad.

 

[Stunt]

Originally posted by: senseamp

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: OS
link

The contention is that % change in car sales is closely linked to economic activity and has in the past accurately marked recessions.

And at the same time copper futures, whcih are a benchmark of economic health, remain strong. The auto sales stats are interesting, but we will have to see how things turn out.

Copper (and pretty much all other commodity) futures are strong on demand from China and other emerging economies.
http://www.ame.com.au/guest/cu/cuss.jpg
Commodity prices and US economic cycle aren't very closely coupled anymore.

Considering the US automotive sector has far more competitors (GM has half the marketshare it had in 70's) from outside the US; using your same logic (with discrediting the copper), the automotive sector and the US economy aren't very closely coupled.

 

[theeedude]

Originally posted by: Stunt

Originally posted by: senseamp

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: OS
link

The contention is that % change in car sales is closely linked to economic activity and has in the past accurately marked recessions.

And at the same time copper futures, whcih are a benchmark of economic health, remain strong. The auto sales stats are interesting, but we will have to see how things turn out.

Copper (and pretty much all other commodity) futures are strong on demand from China and other emerging economies.
http://www.ame.com.au/guest/cu/cuss.jpg
Commodity prices and US economic cycle aren't very closely coupled anymore.

Considering the US automotive sector has far more competitors (GM has half the marketshare it had in 70's) from outside the US; using your same logic (with discrediting the copper), the automotive sector and the US economy aren't very closely coupled.

Yes, if looking only at US automaker sales. No if looking at overall sales in the US.
If economy is doing well, people are more likely to buy a new car.

 

[Stunt]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674
When you say "our" manufacturing output do you mean made here in the U.S. or on a global scale.

The U.S. is hardly producing anything, we're still doing more importing than exporting.

The amount of Hanjin cargo containers has still been steadily increasing.

Also I've noticed other than corn we don't grwo any agriculture either, just about everything I see in the supermarket is either from a South American Country or Canada.

Apparently Canada has warmed up nicely thanks to global warming to produce what used to be produced in the southern U.S.

The US manufacturing base is still very strong. Through continuous improvement activities and increased productivity, our economy is able to do more with less (conservation and efficency). We no longer need as many people to produce what we consume today. Manufacturing jobs will continue to decline, even though manufacturing continues to stay strong. Jobs lost to offshoring is very little compared to the jobs lost to automation. Neither in my opinion are bad; it is the progression of the human race.

When the plow was invented, do you think peasants were up in arms over their loss of jobs?

Liberals hate Japanese cars sold here, yet celebrate when Boeing wins more business from Japanese airlines. Go figure...

 

[Stunt]

Originally posted by: senseamp

Originally posted by: Stunt

Originally posted by: senseamp

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: OS
link

The contention is that % change in car sales is closely linked to economic activity and has in the past accurately marked recessions.

And at the same time copper futures, whcih are a benchmark of economic health, remain strong. The auto sales stats are interesting, but we will have to see how things turn out.

Copper (and pretty much all other commodity) futures are strong on demand from China and other emerging economies.
http://www.ame.com.au/guest/cu/cuss.jpg
Commodity prices and US economic cycle aren't very closely coupled anymore.

Considering the US automotive sector has far more competitors (GM has half the marketshare it had in 70's) from outside the US; using your same logic (with discrediting the copper), the automotive sector and the US economy aren't very closely coupled.

Yes, if looking only at US automaker sales. No if looking at overall sales in the US.
If economy is doing well, people are more likely to buy a new car.

You are assuming you know why people buy new cars. People don't just go out and buy a car on a whim, just because their wage increased or the dow is up. The purchase of a car is complex; one factor is cost, sometimes it's marketing, car breakdowns, etc.

What if increased competition from Japanese carmakers is increasing the quality of cars and people are happy with their recent purchases. Maybe the used car market is so swamped and people are buying out their leases instead of getting a new car.

These are all perfectly reasonable explainations for fewer cars sold...not even considering the economy.

 

[XZeroII]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: XZeroII

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: senseamp

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: OS
link

The contention is that % change in car sales is closely linked to economic activity and has in the past accurately marked recessions.

And at the same time copper futures, whcih are a benchmark of economic health, remain strong. The auto sales stats are interesting, but we will have to see how things turn out.

Copper (and pretty much all other commodity) futures are strong on demand from China and other emerging economies.
http://www.ame.com.au/guest/cu/cuss.jpg
Commodity prices and US economic cycle aren't very closely coupled anymore.

I would disagree. It is difficult to make anything without using copper. And our manufacturing output continues to climb.

When you say "our" manufacturing output do you mean made here in the U.S. or on a global scale.

The U.S. is hardly producing anything, we're still doing more importing than exporting.

The amount of Hanjin cargo containers has still been steadily increasing.

Also I've noticed other than corn we don't grwo any agriculture either, just about everything I see in the supermarket is either from a South American Country or Canada.

Apparently Canada has warmed up nicely thanks to global warming to produce what used to be produced in the southern U.S.

Yea, that extra 0.1 degrees F has been a real help to Canada's agricutural marketplace.

Seriously though, there is no single indicator that can predict a recession. They just find weird patterns. Kind of like how they would say that Brett Favre has never lost a game at Lameau Field when the weather is below 29 degrees. Sure, it may be true but that doesn't mean anything about the future.

Just because I've only been in car accidents on Fridays doesn't mean that I should never drive on Fridays. It's usually just coincidence.

Wow are you confused.

That is classic brainwashing, bringing completely different subjects to appear the same.

Until you shake that and can clearly see the difference, you will lost forever.

So sad.

It's called an analogy. Until you learn what one is and understand how it can help people understand difficult subject, you will lost forever.

So sad.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: XZeroII

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: XZeroII

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: senseamp

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: OS
link

The contention is that % change in car sales is closely linked to economic activity and has in the past accurately marked recessions.

And at the same time copper futures, whcih are a benchmark of economic health, remain strong. The auto sales stats are interesting, but we will have to see how things turn out.

Copper (and pretty much all other commodity) futures are strong on demand from China and other emerging economies.
http://www.ame.com.au/guest/cu/cuss.jpg
Commodity prices and US economic cycle aren't very closely coupled anymore.

I would disagree. It is difficult to make anything without using copper. And our manufacturing output continues to climb.

When you say "our" manufacturing output do you mean made here in the U.S. or on a global scale.

The U.S. is hardly producing anything, we're still doing more importing than exporting.

The amount of Hanjin cargo containers has still been steadily increasing.

Also I've noticed other than corn we don't grwo any agriculture either, just about everything I see in the supermarket is either from a South American Country or Canada.

Apparently Canada has warmed up nicely thanks to global warming to produce what used to be produced in the southern U.S.

Yea, that extra 0.1 degrees F has been a real help to Canada's agricutural marketplace.

Seriously though, there is no single indicator that can predict a recession. They just find weird patterns. Kind of like how they would say that Brett Favre has never lost a game at Lameau Field when the weather is below 29 degrees. Sure, it may be true but that doesn't mean anything about the future.

Just because I've only been in car accidents on Fridays doesn't mean that I should never drive on Fridays. It's usually just coincidence.

Wow are you confused.

That is classic brainwashing, bringing completely different subjects to appear the same.

Until you shake that and can clearly see the difference, you will lost forever.

So sad.

It's called an analogy. Until you learn what one is and understand how it can help people understand difficult subject, you will lost forever.

So sad.

What analogy do you have for all these car dealerships I see going out of business?

Dealerships that have been around since WWII.

 

[Stunt]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674
What analogy do you have for all these car dealerships I see going out of business?

Dealerships that have been around since WWII.

With interest rates going up, it's more costly to hold inventories of unsold cars. Closing dealerships can be a huge cost savings if you pick the right ones.

 

[TheSlamma]

I don't know about the dealerships in other cities, but here int he Denver area I have been to every Honda Stealership and have yet to find a Fit.. even Civic stock is short.. but SUV's are all over the lot.... I thought SUV sales were getting stagnant right now with gas price? So why the huge stock still and where are the econoboxes.. or is this just a problem here?