Canadian Federal Election 2015

[cbrunny]

Speaking in broad strokes, not too far off Spungo. All three parties have pledged support for Israel. This election won't be changing Canadas perception on that.

For us there are really three major issues: 1. ISIS/Refugees 2. Russia 3. Peacekeeping.

Platforms tend to break down like this:

Cons:
1. Air strikes, soldier training, humanitarian aid, general status quo on refugees, reasonably large presence in conflict.
2. Foster positive relationships with allies, strong stance against Russia, defend the north.
3. Lower priority than #1 & 2, historical low for Canada in terms of numbers.

Libs:
1. Train local soldiers, more refugees. No armed conflict.
2. No idea. Probably defend the north but wants to scrap the F-35s for cheaper planes AND cut military spending. So, whatever that amounts to. Still anti-Russian destabilization though.
3. Bring peacekeeping back to prominence in Canada.

NDP:
1. Humanitarian aid, more refugees. No armed conflict. ISIS conflict not sanctioned by UN so no Canadian combat.
2. No idea. probably defend the north but not clear on how he will do this. I assume he is still anti-Russian destabilization. Will probably rely on UN to resolve any major disputes with territory.
3. Increase peacekeeping efforts and humanitarian aid efforts.


As good as the debate was, for me personally it was kind of useless. I think Trudeau's foreign policy platform is very weak, as is Mulcair's. In my opinion, We should be stormtrooping ISIS, using Rick Hillier's refugee plan, peacekeeping in regions where it reasonably makes sense to do so relative to the financial cost and prevalence/significance of conflict.

The problem with foreign policy is that everyone wants to help everyone in every reasonable way. As they should. It would be amazing to be able to do everything that everyone wants, make sure no one is hungry or in conflict or under oppressive threats or getting fucking beheaded or sold as sex slaves. Sadly that isn't the case, and it is necessary to prioritize and work with other governments to establish some semblance of order in policy. Put another way, it's easy to want to do something but it has to make sense to the world in order for it to make sense as policy. We're all at a disadvantage for that as voters as we really have no idea what other countries want Canada to do or do differently.

 

[cbrunny]

http://www.lispop.ca/seat-projection/federal

CPC: 126
NDP: 106
Liberal: 104
Bloc: 1
Green: 1

 

[Jhhnn]

I'm not sure why your link assumes Keynesian economics works. Japan has been doing Keynesian stimulus for the past few decades and it has caused one of the longest depressions in human history. America went full Keynesian in 1929, and it lead to the longest depression in US history. We've been doing Keynesian stimulus in the US since 2006 (the last time interest rates were hiked), and that has lead to the second longest depression in US history. Right now, economists have US growth estimated at around 2%, which is far below the long term trend. A sustained period of below average growth is called a depression. Contrary to popular belief, depression does not mean GDP shrinks every year; that's called a technical recession.

I'm curious what the other parties plan on doing to stimulate the economy. I don't know what the liberals are up to, but the NDP often talk about shutting down the tar sands or taxing them out of existence, similar to Obama's promise of destroying the coal industry (ignoring the fact that coal powers most of the US). That's the exact opposite of stimulus. Take something is profitable most of the time, such as tar sand, and tax it until companies are forced to liquidate assets, lay off thousands of workers, and stop all future investment.
People in Washington state are nervously watching this election. A lot of oil from Alberta passes through Washington and Montana, so we're hoping Canadians don't try to crush that industry. I work in transportation engineering, and a lot of the work we do is related to oil transport. If I'm not mistaken, Harper and Trudeau are in favor of oil pipelines and rail transport to the US, but the NDP guy wants oil transported from western Canada to eastern Canada, and he's vocally against selling oil to China (racism?). That doesn't just hurt Washington and Montana. That would mean Alberta sells oil below market price, which ultimately hurts Alberta as well.

That's a load of ideologically convenient horseshit.

Whatever Keynesianism Japan engaged in during the 90's & 00's was like dealing with a patient who needs 3 pints of blood by giving them 1, then saying it didn't work.

The US didn't engage in Keynesian policy until 1932. Between the crash of 1929 & FDR's election, the FRB actually shrank the money supply driving deflation which reached 40% at his inauguration. The Gold reserve act of 1934 allowed the govt to devalue the dollar from $21/oz to $35/oz thus creating liquidity for keynesian purposes.

 

[Spungo]

Whatever Keynesianism Japan engaged in during the 90's & 00's was like dealing with a patient who needs 3 pints of blood by giving them 1, then saying it didn't work.

Japan's debt to GDP is 240%. How much more stimulus do you want? Will you be satisfied when it gets to 300%, or will you insist that it needs to be at least 500%? How many quadrillions of yen should they borrow and spend?

The US didn't engage in Keynesian policy until 1932.

Fail. Hoover immediately started Keynesian stimulus.
Hoover jacked the taxes up to 63% to pay for all of that stimulus. FDR then raised the tax rate to 90%.

Construction of Hoover Dam started in 1931. As someone who works in engineering, I can tell you planning starts years earlier. If they started construction in 1931, that means they were planning it since 1930 or earlier.

Between the crash of 1929 & FDR's election, the FRB actually shrank the money supply driving deflation which reached 40% at his inauguration. The Gold reserve act of 1934 allowed the govt to devalue the dollar from $21/oz to $35/oz thus creating liquidity for keynesian purposes.

Saying this shows me that you don't understand how banking works. This is a lot easier to understand if you remember one thing: all paper money is a form of debt, and all debt is money. It's a paper claim on something, meaning it's a debt obligation. When a bank issues loans, they are creating new money; they are not lending out something that already exists. During the roaring 1920's, it became popular to borrow money to buy stocks, which is called margin debt. If everyone is borrowing money, that means the money supply grows. That's inflation, and it needs to go somewhere. In this case, stocks. Stock prices were hugely inflated and completely disconnected from the underlying economy (sound familiar?). People could then turn around and use the increased stock equity as collateral for more loans to buy more stocks. This is a process called rehypothecation, and it allows extremely high levels of leverage to be reached. It can be done an infinite number of times to create an infinite supply of money. This process eventually reverses and creates a situation similar to what sank Lehman Brothers. Suppose I'm leveraged 50 to 1; I have 2% equity. If my stocks go down 2%, I'm technically insolvent. If stocks go down more than 2%, I could have very large negative equity. I could owe more money than I could ever possibly pay back. As long as the loans are good and I'm still able to make payments, the money supply does not contract. As soon as I default on the loans, the money supply contracts. Now imagine millions of people defaulting at the same time, and they are defaulting on very large loans. The result is extreme deflation. The money supply collapses. Bank balance sheets become negative because they list bonds as assets, and the value of those assets need to be marked down when the loans go bad. Banks also list bank deposits as liabilities. If the bank's liabilities exceed the value of the bank's loans, the bank is insolvent. All of the depositors are wiped out. Imagine a scenario where your entire stock portfolio has negative value due to leverage, all of your bonds crash to zero because the borrowers are bankrupt, and your bank account no longer exists. Now imagine that happening to millions of people at the same time.

Maybe Hoover and the fed could have done more to support the banking system, but blaming them for the collapse of the money supply is simply wrong. They didn't intentionally shrink the money supply. The money supply naturally imploded, and they didn't act fast enough to stop it. Bernanke claims to be a student of the great depression, and that appears to be true to some extent. To his credit, he did prevent a complete banking collapse.

 

[KMFJD]

NDP seems to be losing a lot of momentum lately

 

[cbrunny]

NDP seems to be losing a lot of momentum lately

I suspect a lot of it has to do with NDP foreign policy.

 

[3chordcharlie]

We now have a Government not just openly, but proudly wearing its racism in public. They have promised, even if they lose in Court, to find a way to ban the niqab from citizenship ceremonies. This is not about identity (that problem is already asked and answered). This is about intolerance and fear.

We are about to have an anonymous snitch line to inform about your neighbors' 'barbaric cultural practices'. http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-barbaric-cultural-practices-law-1.3254118

And we have declared Canadian citizenship to be essentially meaningless. http://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/...rip-citizenship-from-canadian-born-terrorist/

 

[cbrunny]

We are about to have an anonymous snitch line to inform about your neighbors' 'barbaric cultural practices'. http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-barbaric-cultural-practices-law-1.3254118

are you suggesting that forced marriage of young girls is OK? That's one of the practices your article mentions. Does society have a responsibility to protect its citizens? How is this any different from calling something like the children's aid society?

And we have declared Canadian citizenship to be essentially meaningless. http://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/...rip-citizenship-from-canadian-born-terrorist/

I know you aren't defending terrorists but why is a Canadian terrorist equal to a not-terrorist Canadian? Why is citizenship different from freedom?

Legit questions. Not trying to be a dick.

 

[KMFJD]

are you suggesting that forced marriage of young girls is OK? That's one of the practices your article mentions. Does society have a responsibility to protect its citizens? How is this any different from calling something like the children's aid society?



I know you aren't defending terrorists but why is a Canadian terrorist equal to a not-terrorist Canadian? Why is citizenship different from freedom?

Legit questions. Not trying to be a dick.

I'm pretty sure there are mechanisms in place for this that don't require a new snitch hotline.

 

[cbrunny]

I'm pretty sure there are mechanisms in place for this that don't require a new snitch hotline.

Almost definitely yes. But what harm does it do?

 

[Victorian Gray]

Almost definitely yes. But what harm does it do?

It's a fucking dog whistle for bigots and racists. This is the work of that nasty little Australian 'fixer' that the Conservatives hired a few weeks back. He specializes in this kind of crap. Personally, I'm disgusted by it.

 

[Victorian Gray]

are you suggesting that forced marriage of young girls is OK? That's one of the practices your article mentions. Does society have a responsibility to protect its citizens? How is this any different from calling something like the children's aid society?

The only forced marriages of young girls I've heard about in Canada happen to be done by a bunch of American and Canadian fundamentalist Mormons here in BC. I don't think that this odious bill is about those Mormons.

I know you aren't defending terrorists but why is a Canadian terrorist equal to a not-terrorist Canadian? Why is citizenship different from freedom?

Legit questions. Not trying to be a dick.

This is the govt. trying to remove the citizenship of a Canadian born citizen. Talk about the concept of slippery slopes!

 

[cbrunny]

It's a fucking dog whistle for bigots and racists. This is the work of that nasty little Australian 'fixer' that the Conservatives hired a few weeks back. He specializes in this kind of crap. Personally, I'm disgusted by it.

OK. But so is the internet.
Any racist person can call the cops now. Or go online and rant and rave about. Just because they can doresnt mean its right. A jackass that calls this line with racist intent or bigoted intent is no worse than a person calling the cops doing the same thing. A phone line doesn't change laws.

 

[cbrunny]

The only forced marriages of young girls I've heard about in Canada happen to be done by a bunch of American and Canadian fundamentalist Mormons here in BC. I don't think that this odious bill is about those Mormons.




This is the govt. trying to remove the citizenship of a Canadian born citizen. Talk about the concept of slippery slopes!

You should ask the CBC why they cited that specifically then.

 

[Victorian Gray]

OK. But so is the internet.
Any racist person can call the cops now. Or go online and rant and rave about. Just because they can doresnt mean its right. A jackass that calls this line with racist intent or bigoted intent is no worse than a person calling the cops doing the same thing. A phone line doesn't change laws.

There are none so blind as those who absolutely refuseto see.

 

[cbrunny]

There are none so blind as those who absolutely refuseto see.

Hey I don't think it is necessary but I don't see harm.

 

[Victorian Gray]

You should ask the CBC why they cited that specifically then.

citation please.

 

[Victorian Gray]

Hey I don't think it is necessary but I don't see harm.

Of course you don't.

 

[3chordcharlie]

are you suggesting that forced marriage of young girls is OK? That's one of the practices your article mentions. Does society have a responsibility to protect its citizens? How is this any different from calling something like the children's aid society?

There are many other means of enforcement. A snitch line as proposed only makes sense if you are trying to normalize increased surveillance and lack of protections.

First-run issue here: Is an anonymous 'tip' sufficient to satisfy probable cause and allow detention and search?

This is not a tool that a democratic country that values freedom would use.

I know you aren't defending terrorists but why is a Canadian terrorist equal to a not-terrorist Canadian? Why is citizenship different from freedom?

Legit questions. Not trying to be a dick.

I'm not sure you understand this part. The man in the linked article is a citizen of Canada, and of no other country. He was born in Canada, and his parents are Canadian citizens.

from a CBC article on the same man:

Gaya was born in Montreal to Pakistani immigrants who came to Canada over 30 years ago. His parents lost their Pakistani citizenship when they became Canadian citizens.

But in documents filed in Federal Court on Sept. 18, the federal government is alleging that Gaya's parents had their Pakistani citizenship retroactively restored in 2014.

Based on that claim, the government says that stripping Gaya of his citizenship would not render him stateless because he retroactively became a dual national the moment his parents did.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/saad-gaya-citizenship-revocation-terrorism-1.3253043

It's not that he shouldn't be in jail. He should be. The mental gymnastics required to buy into the Government's position here are stunning. He is a concvicted terrorist. But he is our convicted terrorist, not Pakistan's.

 

[cbrunny]

citation please.

Literally the CBC article that was linked like five posts ago.

 

[cbrunny]

citation please.

Post 232

 

[Victorian Gray]

Literally the CBC article that was linked like five posts ago.

Funny, I see nothing about Canadian Mormons and the forced marriage of young girls in that article.

 

[cbrunny]

First-run issue here: Is an anonymous 'tip' sufficient to satisfy probable cause and allow detention and search?

children's aid society says it is. I don't agree but I haven't read anything that says an anonymous tip will result in such a thing either. If I'm wrong I'd like to know that as that would impact my opinion on this item.

 

[cbrunny]

Funny, I see nothing about Canadian Mormons and the forced marriage of young girls in that article.

You brought up Mormons. Not me.

From the article. One of the spots its !mentioned

Forced marriages were*part of what motivated the*Zero Tolerance for Barbaric Cultural Practices Act, which was a series of amendments to the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act and the Civil Marriage Act that made*permanent residents and temporary residents inadmissible to Canada if they practice polygamy and established a national minimum age for marriage of 16.

The changes also made it*illegal to take*a child or non-consenting adult out of Canada to have them married abroad and limited*the use of provocation as a legal defence for so-called honour killings.*

 

[Victorian Gray]

You brought up Mormons. Not me.

From the article. One of the spots its !mentioned

As I said, there are none so blind as those who *refuse* to see.