Canada's turn coming up: housing bubble!

yllus

Elite Member & Lifer
Aug 20, 2000
20,577
432
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They've been saying that for almost ten years now. No doubt its coming, but I'll believe it when I see it.
 

IronWing

No Lifer
Jul 20, 2001
72,667
33,529
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With China slowing, a fall in commodity prices could kick the legs out from under the Canadian housing market.
 

3chordcharlie

Diamond Member
Mar 30, 2004
9,859
1
81
They really said it in 2002? It had hardly begun by then...

They've been saying that constantly ever since there's been a housing market. It's always going to get worse. Sometimes it even does get worse. But it's always 'going to'.

There's an unsteady cooling happening at the moment.

Volume down but prices still high in many places. Meaning most sales aren't 'forced'.

In general, the economy is pretty good, we have actually tightened lending standards, and most of the 'action' has been at the high end of the market. Especially without mortgage interest deduction, there's much less incentive to continually refinance for higher amounts.

There is, however, some pretty significant over-valuation at the higher end of the market.

For the higher income folks who are truly going to be affected, losses are just losses, they aren't life-destroying, and even then the majority will simply have the option to stay put rather than crystalize their losses.
 
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Whiskey16

Golden Member
Jul 11, 2011
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With China slowing, a fall in commodity prices could kick the legs out from under the Canadian housing market.
No, only certain geographically narrow - metro core of Toronto and Vancouver plus portions of its immediate surrounding cities such as West Van, North Van, Richmond, and Burnaby - segments of the market.

Yet any changes there will be cannot compare to the fiasco witnessed in the USA where wide swaths of suburbs went into foreclosure. It is nothing than hyperbole and false equivalency to present attempts to equally contrast the Canadian market to that of the what proved to be a rather widespread and fraudulent market in the USA.

Much of this talk of a bubble on par with the USA it totally out of whack with reality. Much of the rest of the Canadian housing market may become flatter for a while or some will continue to see a small rise in value.
 

yllus

Elite Member & Lifer
Aug 20, 2000
20,577
432
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They really said it in 2002? It had hardly begun by then...

From what I recall (without looking it up) there was a correction in 2001, and we've been going nowhere but uphill since. In 2007 there was another short-lived correction that lasted maybe six to eight months.

I live in downtown Toronto and have been interested in buying for that entire time. I was briefly tempted to pull the trigger in 2007 when the correction meant that a 1,000 sqft condo was "only" $450,000, but with my rent so low in comparison I couldn't justify it. I may go without ever buying at this rate and I'm actually fine with that.
 

sandorski

No Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
70,749
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No, only certain geographically narrow - metro core of Toronto and Vancouver plus portions of its immediate surrounding cities such as West Van, North Van, Richmond, and Burnaby - segments of the market.

Yet any changes there will be cannot compare to the fiasco witnessed in the USA where wide swaths of suburbs went into foreclosure. It is nothing than hyperbole and false equivalency to present attempts to equally contrast the Canadian market to that of the what proved to be a rather widespread and fraudulent market in the USA.

Much of this talk of a bubble on par with the USA it totally out of whack with reality. Much of the rest of the Canadian housing market may become flatter for a while or some will continue to see a small rise in value.

Indeed. To reiterate, Canada's Housing Market is nothing like the US Housing Bubble. There will be a correction in Canada's market, at some time, but there are always Corrections at some point.
 

Doppel

Lifer
Feb 5, 2011
13,306
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0
OK just so I'm clear from the Canadians here there's basically nothing to worry about. Forget the charts that show household incomes grossly outpaced by home values, record consumer debt, etc. it's just gonna be fine, maybe a little correction at the most.

Do you actually have numbers to support this or just really, really hope it's the case?

Canada is now enslaved to low interest rates just as the US is. A single point, let alone two, could do real damage and quickly.
Canada's Housing Market is nothing like the US Housing Bubble.
Actually it is very much like it. Lots of numbers show this to be so.
 

Northern Lawn

Platinum Member
May 15, 2008
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They've been saying that for almost ten years now. No doubt its coming, but I'll believe it when I see it.

Yeah if our housing bubble could survive the economic collapse of the world in 2008, LOL, we're going to be fine.
 

sandorski

No Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
70,749
6,319
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OK just so I'm clear from the Canadians here there's basically nothing to worry about. Forget the charts that show household incomes grossly outpaced by home values, record consumer debt, etc. it's just gonna be fine, maybe a little correction at the most.

Do you actually have numbers to support this or just really, really hope it's the case?

Canada is now enslaved to low interest rates just as the US is. A single point, let alone two, could do real damage and quickly.
Actually it is very much like it. Lots of numbers show this to be so.

Dude, you've been droning on about this for a couple years now.
 

dennilfloss

Past Lifer 1957-2014 In Memoriam
Oct 21, 1999
30,509
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dennilfloss.blogspot.com
IIRC, they were saying late this summer on CBC television (Amanda Lang :wub:) that the markets in Vancouver and Toronto are starting to cool down nice and slow.
 
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Northern Lawn

Platinum Member
May 15, 2008
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Doppel and Peter Schiff. The two smartest guys on you tube...I mean they will be once Doppel goes on you tube.
 

Doppel

Lifer
Feb 5, 2011
13,306
3
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Doppel and Peter Schiff. The two smartest guys on you tube...I mean they will be once Doppel goes on you tube.
WTF? I post a very detailed article about a housing bubble and get flak? Why so butt hurt? Good fvck, I didn't realize you canucks were so damn bitchy about your housing market. I'm sorry if I made anybody cry.
Yeah if our housing bubble could survive the economic collapse of the world in 2008, LOL, we're going to be fine.
This kind of thing is retard logic. I have no horse in the game. If you do, you owe yourself to get ahead of retard logic.
 

gingermeggs

Golden Member
Dec 22, 2008
1,157
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Australia is no different, houses in 1999 cost $100,000 now $700,000+ average wage changed ah heck all almost went down against CPI......so someone has to buy at $700,000 which bank will lend that money to a $100,000PA family? the banks have shown their own fraud up! (they only will loan out %40 on that value now) and the gov and the Babyboomers all cashed in on their Kids future!
Nice cunts hey?
Opportunity!!!!!! never again opportunity- shame u scumbags! need some law not cartel!
This has been a generational thing it wont happen again, these people will go down as the humankind's biggest fraudsters ever! nice one flower power gen! hope you feel miserable on ure death beds!
 
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gingermeggs

Golden Member
Dec 22, 2008
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WTF? I post a very detailed article about a housing bubble and get flak? Why so butt hurt? Good fvck, I didn't realize you canucks were so damn bitchy about your housing market. I'm sorry if I made anybody cry.This kind of thing is retard logic. I have no horse in the game. If you do, you owe yourself to get ahead of retard logic.

there is a difference between the US of ass an the Canadiens and aussies it's call law! we don't get pilfered if we own a house in a poor area.......... like stripping copper wiring OMG! what a great place the usa is!!!! hahhhahhahahhaha OMFG! you idiots dont price welfare into your system; well look out middle class! your car just got stolen and your insurance is going thru the roof! if you can get cover anymore(maybe the Indians-bupa- will insure you!).
 

silverpig

Lifer
Jul 29, 2001
27,703
12
81
OK just so I'm clear from the Canadians here there's basically nothing to worry about. Forget the charts that show household incomes grossly outpaced by home values, record consumer debt, etc. it's just gonna be fine, maybe a little correction at the most.

Do you actually have numbers to support this or just really, really hope it's the case?

Canada is now enslaved to low interest rates just as the US is. A single point, let alone two, could do real damage and quickly.
Actually it is very much like it. Lots of numbers show this to be so.

One huge difference: There is no secondary market for mortgages here. Banks must hold whatever loans they issue and can't sell them to other institutions.
 

Whiskey16

Golden Member
Jul 11, 2011
1,338
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One huge difference: There is no secondary market for mortgages here. Banks must hold whatever loans they issue and can't sell them to other institutions.
Thereby the avoidance of extreme fraud by signing up excessive amounts of clients throughout the country for mortgages that they had no business in qualifying for and of those same banks glutfully justifying such risk behaviour by reselling that unserviceable debt as fraudulent products. Rather than being persecuted, few of those banks were left to fail and most were saved by your governments and thereby retaining the very same culture that will lead to similar catastrophes to again occur.

The Canadian economy and market is not that of the USA. We are linked, but there are great difference in personal responsibilities/actions and that of legislated regulation and enforcement of banking practices. There are also halfhearted reports decrying record personal debt here of being in equal risk to what was witnessed in the USA. The great difference remains of Canadians retaining a far better serviceability of their debt.
 
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Northern Lawn

Platinum Member
May 15, 2008
2,231
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We didn't sell millions of houses to people that can't afford them in hopes of doubling the interest payments then foreclosing on them all.

So Doppel, I'm telling you, the only way Canada will sink is if America crashes again but this time so hard it pulls us down with you.
 

DucatiMonster696

Diamond Member
Aug 13, 2009
4,269
1
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WTF? I post a very detailed article about a housing bubble and get flak? Why so butt hurt? Good fvck, I didn't realize you canucks were so damn bitchy about your housing market. I'm sorry if I made anybody cry.This kind of thing is retard logic. I have no horse in the game. If you do, you owe yourself to get ahead of retard logic.

You need to understand that it's not the housing market bubble folks are bitchy about in this thread its the prospect of potential political criticism about why there is a bubble in the first place. In addition to the ramifications of who gets the blame politically.

Speaking strictly on the economics issue of said bubble one could say that it will arrive, that a bust is inevitable. Of which said bust this is especially clear to arrive when it is government which fuels the bubble and lastly that the correction will be necessary to clear out the dead wood. As for Canada well the level and nature of their bubble bursting will depend on how deep they dug their hole and who they gave shovels to when digging.

However the politics of it all is what gets people bent out of shape because this is when their politically held views (which are not always based on sound economic reasoning) on the economy and the role of government as whole in the economy itself may come under fire and this is when it gets very personal for some people.
 
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Whiskey16

Golden Member
Jul 11, 2011
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However the politics of it all is what gets people bent out of shape because this is when their politically held views (which are not always based on sound economic reasoning) on the economy and the role of government as whole in the economy itself may come under fire and this is when it gets very personal for some people.
You just said a whole lot of nothing, and likely was the most politically ideologically motivated and non-economically nonsense in this thread.

The great variances between the two economies in the housing market
has already been corrected and is economically grounded.

A prime difference between any housing crashes/adjustments in as Canada and the USA is simply put -- the rate of change. Due to excessive and widespread fraud affecting all geographic and wealth sectors of the US housing market, it faced a RAPID crash.

By regulatory control, the relatively few housing debters in Canada who are as overly extended and in combination with the lack in number of fraudulent banking products built upon unrecoverable products, such a similar CRASH is not possible here.

As stated, only a couple of geographically isolated markets have been priced higher and more rapidly than what the domestic, and to a lesser extent, the international buyer market may bear. Due to such selling prices, these can apparently drive the AVERAGE selling price of whack, thereby skewing a market. Except for but a few relatively tiny regions, these skews can be reasonably adjusted to a more reasonable market rate when looking at the MEAN housing sale prices.

In particular the markets of Vancouver and its immediate cities, that housing market has been driven extraordinarily high by international capital - mostly based by new money in China. That has been well beyond the domestic economy means and has certainly reached a peak with few anymore unremarkable detached homes (some having received media attention as tear downs) and condos facing immediate bidding wars of over million for what should be around ~$600-750k. Such excess can be viewed as a pittance for family money that cannot buy into such a lifestyle and location anywhere back in the home market for that money's origin.

This is relatively new wealth and has been a strong driving force in the rapidly more costly Lower Mainland housing market for just over the past decade. Recently, many individuals of such family wealth are realising that the source of that money cannot be as easily attained where they have now chosen to live. There its becoming closed to a saturation for those wishing to expend and needing to buy into the market. This, in combination with a realisation that the market has peaked, has caused a slowdown in housing demand and sales. Yet this is hardly a country wide event.

Doppel, Ducati, and others, you have greatly failed in equating proposed fears of a Canadian housing crash equalling that experienced in the USA.

Different markets.
Different market demands.
Different degrees and numbers for who qualified and received mortgages.
Different degrees and numbers of banks and their clients holding unserviceable debt.
Different rates in foreclosures.
Different rates in the growth for the supply of housing upon the market.
etc...

None of those points have you addressed. All that appears is a conceited barb of 'you'll get your turn too.'

On to a biting critique of US ideological culture and blame for your housing ills... You have proved too radical, corrupt, and greedy in segments of your economy. You have paid a price and this has brought much of the world down with you. Though not all down as far. Unfortunately you have not learned and adapted to correct the ills that instigated your housing crisis and global recession that followed. You have plenty to learn and hopefully adopt from more economically CONSERVATIVE (note - not in political party name or ideology but that of general culture and practice) states such as Canada.

[edit - well no editing.... This was entered on my phone (gotta love Swype)...not the best platform for content creation and correction...the above errors will be kept]
 
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sandorski

No Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
70,749
6,319
126
You need to understand that it's not the housing market bubble folks are bitchy about in this thread its the prospect of potential political criticism about why there is a bubble in the first place. In addition to the ramifications of who gets the blame politically.

Speaking strictly on the economics issue of said bubble one could say that it will arrive, that a bust is inevitable. Of which said bust this is especially clear to arrive when it is government which fuels the bubble and lastly that the correction will be necessary to clear out the dead wood. As for Canada well the level and nature of their bubble bursting will depend on how deep they dug their hole and who they gave shovels to when digging.

However the politics of it all is what gets people bent out of shape because this is when their politically held views (which are not always based on sound economic reasoning) on the economy and the role of government as whole in the economy itself may come under fire and this is when it gets very personal for some people.

Real Estate rises and crashes, just like the normal Economic Cycle. All we're saying is that Canada's Bubble is not what the US/Europe Bubble was.
 

BudAshes

Lifer
Jul 20, 2003
13,986
3,340
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There's only like 4 nice places to live in canada so I'd imagine it's going to be expensive in those places.
 
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