Can we stop talking about autonomous cars?

[zinfamous]

"Deep learning" aka neural networks are data-based algs that nobody can really understand or debug in any meaningful way. They just "seem to work" until they don't. Fine for search classification, less so for driving.

how so? the learning that is needed for on-the-spot driving adjustment is vastly less complicated than search and complex calculation. You have a comparatively small number of variables that fit within an even smaller number of category trees that would determine how a vehicle responds to road situations. Once one car adjusts, all immediately adjust because the information is instantly shared on the local and general network. This type of calculation and adjustment is way faster than a collection of individual humans could ever hope to achieve. nVidia and AMD are already developing chips intended for these systems--so whether or not this is called "deep learning," this seems to be what is powering the network.

I think the real hurdle here is security with the various networks that control information sharing between hived vehicles and the common cloud system(s). Now that's a real bugaboo.

 

[agent00f]

how so? the learning that is needed for on-the-spot driving adjustment is vastly less complicated than search and complex calculation. You have a comparatively small number of variables that fit within an even smaller number of category trees that would determine how a vehicle responds to road situations.

If autonomous driving weren't complex then we'd already be doing it. It's exactly complicated due to the minute margin for error, eg 1 in 10 bad search results, no big deal, less so for occlusion detection.

Once one car adjusts, all immediately adjust because the information is instantly shared on the local and general network. This type of calculation and adjustment is way faster than a collection of individual humans could ever hope to achieve. nVidia and AMD are already developing chips intended for these systems--so whether or not this is called "deep learning," this seems to be what is powering the network.

I think the real hurdle here is security with the various networks that control information sharing between hived vehicles and the common cloud system(s). Now that's a real bugaboo.

Auto cars cannot rely on a network connection any more than they can on GPS.

 

[zinfamous]

If autonomous driving weren't complex then we'd already be doing it. It's exactly complicated due to the minute margin for error, eg 1 in 10 bad search results, no big deal, less so for occlusion detection.



Auto cars cannot rely on a network connection any more than they can on GPS.

why not? From what I have read, this is exactly how they are being designed--more or less a networked hive that continuously communicates among its neighbors and through other local network(s).

And I didn't say it wasn't complex, I said it wasn't as insurmountably complex as so many want to think it is.

 

[agent00f]

why not? From what I have read, this is exactly how they are being designed--more or less a networked hive that continuously communicates among its neighbors and through other local network(s).

Because they can't fail whenever the network drops, which you might've notice on occasion with your phone, same as GPS under a bridge or whatever. Fully networked is just marketing talk given no existing system has that sort of sophistication anyway. Given the nature of this specific task it's at best an additional feature, not the basic mode of operation. What you're talking about makes more sense for robots in a warehouse.

And I didn't say it wasn't complex, I said it wasn't as insurmountably complex as so many want to think it is.

The advanced ones which're even remotely feasible are basically the cutting edge of what's possible, and they've been "almost good enough" with only moderate progress for a while now.

 

[Ichinisan]

There are ~zero cars capable of full autonomy on the road today.

https://www.tesla.com/autopilot

Full Self-Driving Capability

Build upon Enhanced Autopilot and order Full Self-Driving Capability on your Tesla. This doubles the number of active cameras from four to eight, enabling full self-driving in almost all circumstances, at what we believe will be a probability of safety at least twice as good as the average human driver. The system is designed to be able to conduct short and long distance trips with no action required by the person in the driver’s seat. For Superchargers that have automatic charge connection enabled, you will not even need to plug in your vehicle.

All you will need to do is get in and tell your car where to go. If you don’t say anything, the car will look at your calendar and take you there as the assumed destination or just home if nothing is on the calendar. Your Tesla will figure out the optimal route, navigate urban streets (even without lane markings), manage complex intersections with traffic lights, stop signs and roundabouts, and handle densely packed freeways with cars moving at high speed. When you arrive at your destination, simply step out at the entrance and your car will enter park seek mode, automatically search for a spot and park itself. A tap on your phone summons it back to you.

Please note that Self-Driving functionality is dependent upon extensive software validation and regulatory approval, which may vary widely by jurisdiction. It is not possible to know exactly when each element of the functionality described above will be available, as this is highly dependent on local regulatory approval. Please note also that using a self-driving Tesla for car sharing and ride hailing for friends and family is fine, but doing so for revenue purposes will only be permissible on the Tesla Network, details of which will be released next year.

From Home
All you will need to do is get in and tell your car where to go. If you don’t say anything, your car will look at your calendar and take you there as the assumed destination. Your Tesla will figure out the optimal route, navigating urban streets, complex intersections and freeways.

To your Destination
When you arrive at your destination, simply step out at the entrance and your car will enter park seek mode, automatically search for a spot and park itself. A tap on your phone summons it back to you.

 

[agent00f]

https://www.tesla.com/autopilot

Full Self-Driving Capability

Build upon Enhanced Autopilot and order Full Self-Driving Capability on your Tesla. This doubles the number of active cameras from four to eight, enabling full self-driving in almost all circumstances, at what we believe will be a probability of safety at least twice as good as the average human driver. The system is designed to be able to conduct short and long distance trips with no action required by the person in the driver’s seat. For Superchargers that have automatic charge connection enabled, you will not even need to plug in your vehicle.

All you will need to do is get in and tell your car where to go. If you don’t say anything, the car will look at your calendar and take you there as the assumed destination or just home if nothing is on the calendar. Your Tesla will figure out the optimal route, navigate urban streets (even without lane markings), manage complex intersections with traffic lights, stop signs and roundabouts, and handle densely packed freeways with cars moving at high speed. When you arrive at your destination, simply step out at the entrance and your car will enter park seek mode, automatically search for a spot and park itself. A tap on your phone summons it back to you.

Please note that Self-Driving functionality is dependent upon extensive software validation and regulatory approval, which may vary widely by jurisdiction. It is not possible to know exactly when each element of the functionality described above will be available, as this is highly dependent on local regulatory approval. Please note also that using a self-driving Tesla for car sharing and ride hailing for friends and family is fine, but doing so for revenue purposes will only be permissible on the Tesla Network, details of which will be released next year.

From Home
All you will need to do is get in and tell your car where to go. If you don’t say anything, your car will look at your calendar and take you there as the assumed destination. Your Tesla will figure out the optimal route, navigating urban streets, complex intersections and freeways.

To your Destination
When you arrive at your destination, simply step out at the entrance and your car will enter park seek mode, automatically search for a spot and park itself. A tap on your phone summons it back to you.

Teslas aren't autonomous.

 

[Ichinisan]

Teslas aren't autonomous.

You said:

There are ~zero cars capable of full autonomy on the road today.

From that first link I gave:
https://electrek.co/2016/10/28/tesla-model-3-self-drivin-ride-tesla-network-cost-per-mile/
"Tesla announced that all its new vehicles are now equipped with the necessary hardware to achieve full autonomy through software updates."

...but maybe this is a pedantic comment about them being tied to a network? I'd be concerned if it wasn't!

 

[Pantoot]

https://www.tesla.com/autopilot

To your Destination
When you arrive at your destination, simply step out at the entrance and your car will enter park seek mode, automatically search for a spot and park itself. A tap on your phone summons it back to you.

I feel like they told me my car would do that almost 2 years ago.
It does park itself, so long as the car is lined up with the spot, but it certainly won't drop me off at the mall entrance and then go find a spot. They claimed it would, and it never will.

Edit: I looked it up, their actual claim was:
"At the right time, it turns on the climate control and opens the garage door. On private property, Model S will even pull out of the garage and meet you at the curb."

My car doesn't do that, and never will. I believe the latest claims about as much as the ones they made in January of 2015.

 

[agent00f]

You said:


From that first link I gave:
https://electrek.co/2016/10/28/tesla-model-3-self-drivin-ride-tesla-network-cost-per-mile/
"Tesla announced that all its new vehicles are now equipped with the necessary hardware to achieve full autonomy through software updates."

...but maybe this is a pedantic comment about them being tied to a network? I'd be concerned if it wasn't!

It's a lot easier to claim they can do this than actually doing it.

Google's system is the cutting edge and its rather sophisticated 3d ranging system has trouble in increment weather, and the only truly autonomous driving it does (no engineer at the wheel just in case) is on the mean streets of Mountain View.