Can we stop talking about autonomous cars?

[K1052]

Hah, if you thought a banana in the tailpipe was bad just wait until teenagers put gum over your crash avoidance sensor.

I just don't see how these things are going to handle the real world dust dirt grime, age, lack of maintenance, and varying stages of obsolete technology on the road at the same time. I can't even read a PDF without 5 patches. ICE cars put up with alot of abuse, its a complete joke if you think joe blow who never gets oil changes and runs his tires at the wrong PSI is going to be zipping through red lights inches away from other cars with computer assisted precision with his 12 year old outdated car.

The real world and 3,000lb of moving mass just don't mix when it comes to computers. Computers operate best in controlled environments like precision manufacturing. The AI is just not going to be there. We can't simulate the way the brain works with digital circuits... its fundamentally the wrong circuitry.

Infrastructure will become more restrictive to manual driving. Parts of cities first, then whole cites, suburbs, interstates, etc. It just becomes progressive until there are no more manual cars on the vast majority of public roads. I didn't say this would be overnight. It could take a couple decades until its all done but make no mistake is it coming.

 

[Kaido]

Autonomous semis will put like a million people out of work.

3.5 million truckers in the US. 8.7 million employed by the trucking industry in related jobs.

 

[OverVolt]

Those comparisons don't even make sense. Most auto deaths aren't caused by poor maintenance, they're caused by poor driving.

Yea so? You can't force people to change. I'd argue though that if people used the proper season tires, and everyone had electronic assists you could save at least 10k. Its a moot point especially since AI technology just isn't going to come to fruition like you think it will. Something "wow amaze" like google maps is actually based on a pretty simple algorithm. There is basically zero probability they can make a functional autonomous car that can handle an unexpected lane closure at 55mph in my lifetime.

 

[OverVolt]

Infrastructure will become more restrictive to manual driving. Parts of cities first, then whole cites, suburbs, interstates, etc. It just becomes progressive until there are no more manual cars on the vast majority of public roads. I didn't say this would be overnight. It could take a couple decades until its all done but make no mistake is it coming.

Thats interesting because baltimore city had 1950's stop lights that don't even have a sensor to tell when a car is waiting at a red light.

Any day now I'm sure they'll find the money somewhere.

 

[Kaido]

Infrastructure will become more restrictive to manual driving. Parts of cities first, then whole cites, suburbs, interstates, etc. It just becomes progressive until there are no more manual cars on the vast majority of public roads. I didn't say this would be overnight. It could take a couple decades until its all done but make no mistake is it coming.

It's a good & a bad thing. I don't think we'll ever achieve 100% coverage in America because of the big draws of the country is driving. But imagine it in packed cities like NYC...you could reduce pedestrian injuries by the thousands & pedestrian deaths by the hundreds. Not to mention get rid of traffic jams. Although a lot of taxi drivers will be out of work then. But nation-wide, we kill 30-40k people a year in traffic accidents...even cutting that number in half would be amazing. I've lost far too many friends to stupid car accidents 🙁

 

[K1052]

Yea so? You can't force people to change. I'd argue though that if people used the proper season tires, and everyone had electronic assists you could save at least 10k. Its a moot point especially since AI technology just isn't going to come to fruition like you think it will. Something "wow amaze" like google maps is actually based on a pretty simple algorithm. There is basically zero probability they can make a functional autonomous car that can handle an unexpected lane closure at 55mph in my lifetime.

You're talking like there are not already autonomous cars not he roads and highways now. It's going to take some time to perfect but it is an inevitability at this point.

 

[Kaido]

Have fun following a car going 55mph on the interstate.

Eh...

http://www.autoblog.com/2015/10/20/tesla-autopilot-first-speeding-ticket/

 

[K1052]

Thats interesting because baltimore city had 1950's stop lights that don't even have a sensor to tell when a car is waiting at a red light.

Any day now I'm sure they'll find the money somewhere.

It would be extremely simple to regulate this on a fixed infrastructure basis. It's technically no different from the implementations of congestion pricing now, the consequences are just more severe.

 

[OverVolt]

It would be extremely simple to regulate this on a fixed infrastructure basis. It's technically no different from the implementations of congestion pricing now, the consequences are just more severe.

You're just naive. Cities don't cooperate that well. Flint couldn't even share water with Detroit.

First of all, goodbye to property values if any city actually mandates everyone must have an autonomous car.

Second of all, google is researching autonomous cars as more of a publicity stunt to keep up its image as a technology company. Its the kind of R&D where the end product is unlikely to be functional, but alot of cool advancements in crash avoidance tech and such will come out of it.

At the end of of the day google is a search/advertisement company and has a mobile OS.

Something like what Tesla is doing, as an actual car company with driving assists is alot more realistic. But its still yet to be seen if Tesla will mature into mainstream auto manufacturer.

 

[K1052]

It's a good & a bad thing. I don't think we'll ever achieve 100% coverage in America because of the big draws of the country is driving. But imagine it in packed cities like NYC...you could reduce pedestrian injuries by the thousands & pedestrian deaths by the hundreds. Not to mention get rid of traffic jams. Although a lot of taxi drivers will be out of work then. But nation-wide, we kill 30-40k people a year in traffic accidents...even cutting that number in half would be amazing. I've lost far too many friends to stupid car accidents 🙁

Cities will of course be first. It will take longer for the rest of the country to follow but it will eventually. At some point a generation that is used to nothing else will replace most of us old farts who might have romanticized the age of manually driven cars. There will always be an enthusiast community but it will be a closed system one day.

 

[OverVolt]

Cities will of course be first. It will take longer for the rest of the country to follow but it will eventually. At some point a generation that is used to nothing else will replace most of us old farts who might have romanticized the age of manually driven cars. There will always be an enthusiast community but it will be a closed system one day.

Yea and I just paid my sewer bill by mail, its in the basement of the firehouse and an old lady keeps a paper ledger. The town has 7,000 people.

Maybe if you ever actually left the city once in awhile, because I did grow up in the Baltimore-Washington metro area.

 

[K1052]

You're just naive. Cities don't cooperate that well. Flint couldn't even share water with Detroit.

First of all, goodbye to property values if any city actually mandates everyone must have an autonomous car.

Second of all, google is researching autonomous cars as more of a publicity stunt to keep up its image as a technology company. The its the kind of R&D where the end product is unlikely to be functional, but alot of cool advancements in crash avoidance tech and such will come out of it.

At the end of of the day google is a search/advertisement company and has a mobile OS.

Something like what Tesla is doing, as an actual car company with driving assists is alot more realistic.

The majority of people in NYC don't own a car and their prop values seem to do just fine. Other cities with relatively low rates of car ownership include SF, Boston, DC, etc. I don't see that your assertion holds water.

Every major auto maker is doing active research into autonomous vehicles. 3rd party companies with a lot to gain are doing so as well along with numerous suppliers to the auto industry. This is simply a matter of time.

 

[OverVolt]

The majority of people in NYC don't own a car and their prop values seem to do just fine. Other cities with relatively low rates of car ownership include SF, Boston, DC, etc. I don't see that your assertion holds water.

Every major auto maker is doing active research into autonomous vehicles. 3rd party companies with a lot to gain are doing so as well along with numerous suppliers to the auto industry. This is simply a matter of time.

Going by how well most touch-screen infotainment systems work its going to be awhile. Ford, Chevy, Mercedes, Toyota etc don't exactly attract the worlds greatest tech minds. Why would any developer worth their salt work for a car company over a tech company.

 

[K1052]

Yea and I just paid my sewer bill by mail, its in the basement of the firehouse and an old lady keeps a paper ledger. The town has 7,000 people.

Maybe if you ever actually left the city once in awhile, because I did grow up in the Baltimore-Washington metro area.

Towns of 7000 people will be about the last places to adopt this as law, as I indicated. It will logically work down the population ladder.

 

[Ichinisan]

There will probably be conversion kits for non-autonomous cars to make them autonomous.

 

[K1052]

Going by how well most touch-screen infotainment systems work its going to be awhile. Ford, Chevy, Mercedes, Toyota etc don't exactly attract the worlds greatest tech minds. Why would any developer worth their salt work for a car company over a tech company.

Money is pouring into this effort across Silicon Valley on behalf of a lot of companies (not just the auto corps). Those are people who know how to write some code and develop new systems.

 

[rh71]

Is 13k the same as 5k?

That's the point - how will a small commuter car, with even more modern technology, get down to $5k if the lowest anyone has to offer is $13k barebones? May as well say we'll have $7k full size sedans some day, because why consider any history/evidence to the contrary already in front of our face? Yeah, let's go with that.

 

[ponyo]

That's the point - how will a small commuter car, with even more modern technology, get down to $5k if the lowest anyone has to offer is $13k barebones? May as well say we'll have $7k full size sedans some day, because why consider any history/evidence to the contrary already in front of our face? Yeah, let's go with that.

If you want funding and Wall St money, it's better to say $7k full size sedans. It's important to just keep making big promises and blowing smoke up people's ass. You have to keep people dreaming and fantasizing so you can delay the reality as long as possible.

 

[Chaotic42]

No. It's beyond our control.

Who were you before you were... wait, I had something for this.

I don't see this happening any time soon. It's fine to talk about rich people in San Diego using them to go a few blocks, but when will someone working for minimum wage in the mountains of West Virginia be able to use one in Winter? That's a long way off.

 

[Kaido]

Cities will of course be first. It will take longer for the rest of the country to follow but it will eventually. At some point a generation that is used to nothing else will replace most of us old farts who might have romanticized the age of manually driven cars. There will always be an enthusiast community but it will be a closed system one day.

Autonomous driving would be an awesome feature for RV's...I've always thought that owning an RV would be fun, but man, driving gets boring after awhile haha. Would be cool to hop in an RV & have it drive you to a campsite, no airplane required, just binge-watch some Netflix on the 2-day trip to Yosemite or whatever.

 

[Red Squirrel]

Oh man that totally would be cool! It would be like being on a private coach bus with a driver and you can just sit back. Though TBH I would have trouble trusting the tech to actually get away from the wheel, but who knows it might get so good that we never give it a second thought, like when you get in an elevator you trust that it will not try to kill you. 😛

 

[Capt Caveman]

Who were you before you were... wait, I had something for this.

I don't see this happening any time soon. It's fine to talk about rich people in San Diego using them to go a few blocks, but when will someone working for minimum wage in the mountains of West Virginia be able to use one in Winter? That's a long way off.

Uber is already testing them in Pittsburgh.

 

[K1052]

Autonomous driving would be an awesome feature for RV's...I've always thought that owning an RV would be fun, but man, driving gets boring after awhile haha. Would be cool to hop in an RV & have it drive you to a campsite, no airplane required, just binge-watch some Netflix on the 2-day trip to Yosemite or whatever.

Yea, there are a lot of possible advantages.

 

[cbrunny]

Seems to me that if all cars are autonomous, a speed limit becomes much more arbitrary to the point that it is not needed. Would make more sense at that point to cap speed based on carbon emissions or some other such metric (not saying that's my preference, just an observation).

 

[cbrunny]

Yeah I don't think fully autonomous will be around any time soon. If you notice, every time they test these it's on a nice clear smooth paved road with clear markings etc in middle of summer. How would they handle a more typical road that looks like this most of the year? No lines, no clear indication of edge of road. It's even more fun on outer city highways where the snow just gets pushed into the ditch and you can't really tell where the real centre of the road is. Suppose they could add metal wire under the road lines and make that standard then self driving cars would actually magnetically look for these to say in their lane. Then it only has to worry about what's in front. Ex: a slower vehicle.

I think what we'll see is semi autonomous. Features that can help automate certain things like follow the car in front of you if stuck in a traffic jam, etc. I think Teslas actually already have that.

See Waterloo, Ontario for the response to your post.