Can Someone Please Explain How the SoCal Real Estate Market Works

Starbuck1975

Lifer
Jan 6, 2005
14,698
1,909
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I moved to SoCal about two years ago, fresh out of grad school with a solid job offer from a respectable company, achieving the American dream of social mobility coming from a fairly humble middle class household.

And yet I can't afford a home in Southern California, unless of course I am willing to accept a 2 hour commute each direction by living out in Riverside or San Bernardino.

Unfortunately, the timing of my move was terrible, as the SoCal housing market was already in the middle of spiraling out of control when I hit the ground.

Now I understand that SoCal attracts the rich and wealthy from the world over...everyone from the entertainment industry elite to Saudi oil princes and dot.com overnight millionaires. Similarly, I can see how say areas like Laguna Beach or Newport Beach or Malibu are considered hot markets, as they are coastal. I know and accept that certain areas of SoCal are simply beyond my reach, unless I hit the lottery.

What I don't understand is how rural suburban areas...Mission Viejo, Irvine, Anaheim Hills, Corona, Yorba Linda...are so overpriced, when there is really no justification for it.

All around me, I see these preplanned communities going up...and the price tag is always over $1M...homes that you can purchase in other regions of the country for 300k. Even a 1940s to 1960s era construction home that requires a lot of work goes for around 700k.

So how is that people are able to afford these homes? Again, I can see how the coastal regions would attract those making the money to afford such homes. But given my encounters with the families that live 10 miles inland, I don't see how they can possibly afford these homes. These families are probably bringing in salaries comparable to mine...somehow the math isn't working out for me...especially considering that in addition to having the $1M home, they also have a Mercedes and a Lexus in the driveway...I am still driving the Honda I purchased out of college.

I am well aware of these interest only or variable interest loans, which perhaps explain some of it...I refuse to go that route to purchase a home...but that seems like a fairly risky foundation for any housing market, and I can't envision such a market dynamic remaining sustainable.

Similarly, all of the housing reports and analyses I read indicate that the SoCal housing market is overprices by as much as 50%. I can't even imagine how blue collar families manage to get by out here...truly blows my mind.

So someone please enlighten me as to how people are able to afford homes in such an inflated market?

And for the record, I have been debt free since leaving the nest...no college loans...no car payments...invest in my company 401k, live on a fairly rigid budget, and do all the things I am supposed to be doing financially.

 

Paddington

Senior member
Jun 26, 2006
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Supply and demand. Lots of demand, but limited supply of real estate in the desireable LA coastal zone.

Someone I know who lives in LA says the city is increasingly becoming less middle class, and more split between rich and poor. It's filling up with two kinds of people: the rich who can afford the real estate, and immigrants from places like Mexico and China (used to less living space per person) who often live with large numbers of extended family in the same home all bringing in multiple pay checks.
 

amish

Diamond Member
Aug 20, 2004
4,295
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Originally posted by: Starbuck1975
So how is that people are able to afford these homes?

i'm going to go with they make more money than you.
 

Starbuck1975

Lifer
Jan 6, 2005
14,698
1,909
126
Supply and demand. Lots of demand, but limited supply of real estate in the desireable LA coastal zone.
I have heard this argument before, and have similarly read articles and journals that state it is very much a fabrication of reality that the real estate industry promotes to keep the market hot.

Also, the culture out here seems to promote that people view real estate as an investment through which to make a quick profit...house flipping and things of that nature.

i'm going to go with they make more money than you.
I am sure many do, but the median income of households in SoCal cannot sustain or afford the median cost of housing...and in the suburbs I live in, I am fairly confident that most of these families are bringing in salaries comperable to mine...and in many cases, less.
 

trmiv

Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
14,670
18
81
Same thing in the Bay Area. My wife and I make over 100K combined, but all we can afford is an apartment, and we are paying a mint for that. We're currently forming plans for a move to North Carolina within two years so we can buy a house.
 

tfinch2

Lifer
Feb 3, 2004
22,114
1
0
Are you limited to living in CA? I mean you're done with grad school so I don't see how finding another job can be problematic. Move out of CA, work hard, and live like a king.
 

Paddington

Senior member
Jun 26, 2006
538
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Originally posted by: Starbuck1975
Supply and demand. Lots of demand, but limited supply of real estate in the desireable LA coastal zone.
I have heard this argument before, and have similarly read articles and journals that state it is very much a fabrication of reality that the real estate industry promotes to keep the market hot.

How is it a fabrication of reality? :confused: Are they manufacturing new land in the Southern California coast? It is what people will pay for it. If you think that's too much for you get, then move somewhere else.

Also, the culture out here seems to promote that people view real estate as an investment through which to make a quick profit...house flipping and things of that nature.

Meh. Again, it is what people will pay for it. There's no law against speculating in real estate.
 

ubercaffeinated

Platinum Member
Dec 1, 2002
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I think, strictly speaking from my own family's experience, is that we bought our homes before the market boomed. So right around 1992-1995, people who bought homes in all the suburban cities you listed, got them for under 500k. You look at the same houses now (3-4 bed, 2.5 bath, gated community, predomininantly Asian/uppermiddleclass neighborhood), they're right around the 1 million mark. So the people with the nice cars, can afford them because they bought the nice houses when they were normal priced. It's insane to pay to get the same now, but people do. Also, it helps when both income earners in the family are professionals.
 

Starbuck1975

Lifer
Jan 6, 2005
14,698
1,909
126
How is it a fabrication of reality? Are they manufacturing new land in the Southern California coast? It is what people will pay for it. If you think that's too much for you get, then move somewhere else.
Coastal...no...10 to 30 miles inland, there is no rationale behind it.

I think, strictly speaking from my own family's experience, is that we bought our homes before the market boomed. So right around 1992-1995, people who bought homes in all the suburban cities you listed, got them for under 500k. You look at the same houses now (3-4 bed, 2.5 bath, gated community, predomininantly Asian/uppermiddleclass neighborhood), they're right around the 1 million mark. So the people with the nice cars, can afford them because they bought the nice houses when they were normal priced. It's insane to pay to get the same now, but people do.
I have heard this as well...that when the market bottomed out in the 1990s, many middle class families were able to purchase homes...and they are now sitting on their retirement, or enough equity to indulge on other luxuries. Sad that I have to wait for others to suffer and hope the market crashes again so that I can purchase a home.

Are you limited to living in CA? I mean you're done with grad school so I don't see how finding another job can be problematic. Move out of CA, work hard, and live like a king.
I am used to a transient lifestyle, so moving isn't an issue...I guess I am fortunate in that I have that option...I feel bad for the families trying to get by out here that do not have the resources to pursue that option.


 

Paddington

Senior member
Jun 26, 2006
538
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0
Originally posted by: Starbuck1975
How is it a fabrication of reality? Are they manufacturing new land in the Southern California coast? It is what people will pay for it. If you think that's too much for you get, then move somewhere else.
Coastal...no...10 to 30 miles inland, there is no rationale behind it.

Compared to living 200 miles inland in some ****** town between LA and Las Vegas, 10-30 miles inland is plenty "coastal".

Also if there's no rational behind it, why the hell are you living there? If you've seen the light as it were and think LA is a ****** place for what you have to pay in rent, then move out.
 

Slew Foot

Lifer
Sep 22, 2005
12,379
96
86
The markets crashing in San Diego and the central valley right now. In a couple years youll see prices drop a bunch in all of CA. The speculators are stuck holding onto properties with negative cash flow and are trying to dump them. As ARMs reset throguh 2008 youll see people drop properties that they can no longer afford, additionally, depending on where you are in CA, between 20-55% of mortgages are neg-am, these people are toast. Supply is steadily building and will probably peak in 2008-2009, thats when youll see the best deals.

Ive posted a bunch on this before, you can search my other posts more more in depth analysis, i dont care to write it all again.
 

ubercaffeinated

Platinum Member
Dec 1, 2002
2,130
0
71
Originally posted by: Paddington
Originally posted by: Starbuck1975
Supply and demand. Lots of demand, but limited supply of real estate in the desireable LA coastal zone.
I have heard this argument before, and have similarly read articles and journals that state it is very much a fabrication of reality that the real estate industry promotes to keep the market hot.

How is it a fabrication of reality? :confused: Are they manufacturing new land in the Southern California coast? It is what people will pay for it. If you think that's too much for you get, then move somewhere else.

Also, the culture out here seems to promote that people view real estate as an investment through which to make a quick profit...house flipping and things of that nature.

Meh. Again, it is what people will pay for it. There's no law against speculating in real estate.


I'm with Paddington on this one - you can't make more land, but apparently people are making more people. The west coast is steadily becoming like it's east coast counterparts. Why are properties in Boston, NY, and suburban areas (talking only about the nice, nonghetto parts), at a fixed high price? Because they can't make anymore. They've been that expensive for along time now. The OP said it himself, the only reason Riverside/San Bernadino Co is cheaper for housing, is because there is actually land left to develop in those areas, since it's mostly chaparral there, if not straight up desert.
 

Dr. Detroit

Diamond Member
Sep 25, 2004
8,517
914
126
There is more to life than owning a home. Invest in your 401K plan and do your best to find a cheap place to live while saving all that you can.

Enjoy your life and laugh at all the suckers who are house-poor. While they are at Home-Depot shopping for remodeling supllies and mowing their lawns you are at the beach or traveling.


I too live in this great state and have it worse as I'm in the Bay Area, while I could afford a $700K mortgage, I would rather enjoy my life rather than being house-poor like so many of sappy co-workers. Not having to pay the plumber, or roofer, and having a maintenae guy at my Apt. complex means I never have to worry about crap going wrong.

:beer: Here's to living in an Apt. and investing my money in the Company 401K plan and traveling!


 

Paddington

Senior member
Jun 26, 2006
538
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0
I read somewhere that in the NYC area the only place where you can find what passes for affordable middle class real estate in the rest of the country is way out in North East Pennsylvania, or practically upstate near Binghamton. :Q
 

Paddington

Senior member
Jun 26, 2006
538
0
0
Originally posted by: Fmr12B
There is more to life than owning a home. Invest in your 401K plan and do your best to find a cheap place to live while saving all that you can.

Enjoy your life and laugh at all the suckers who are house-poor. While they are at Home-Depot shopping for remodeling supllies and mowing their lawns you are at the beach or traveling.


I too live in this great state and have it worse as I'm in the Bay Area, while I could afford a $700K mortgage, I would rather enjoy my life rather than being house-poor like so many of sappy co-workers. Not having to pay the plumber, or roofer, and having a maintenae guy at my Apt. complex means I never have to worry about crap going wrong.

:beer: Here's to living in an Apt. and investing my money in the Company 401K plan and traveling!

America gives such generous tax breaks for owning a home that you're losing out on a lot if you plan on renting your whole life. Those fellows with homes pay less taxes than you do, and are building equity.
 

JS80

Lifer
Oct 24, 2005
26,271
7
81
Originally posted by: Slew Foot
The markets crashing in San Diego and the central valley right now. In a couple years youll see prices drop a bunch in all of CA. The speculators are stuck holding onto properties with negative cash flow and are trying to dump them. As ARMs reset throguh 2008 youll see people drop properties that they can no longer afford, additionally, depending on where you are in CA, between 20-55% of mortgages are neg-am, these people are toast. Supply is steadily building and will probably peak in 2008-2009, thats when youll see the best deals.

Ive posted a bunch on this before, you can search my other posts more more in depth analysis, i dont care to write it all again.

rofl...
 

SampSon

Diamond Member
Jan 3, 2006
7,160
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I have to leave in a few minutes, and don't have time to write a big post or argue with people.

Though I do have a suggestion, take what Slew Foot says with a huge grain of salt.
 

Slew Foot

Lifer
Sep 22, 2005
12,379
96
86
Originally posted by: SampSon
I have to leave in a few minutes, and don't have time to write a big post or argue with people.

Though I do have a suggestion, take what Slew Foot says with a huge grain of salt.



You obviously dont live in CA. If nice coastal regions always hold RE value, then why is San Diego, arguably one of the nicest areas in the country, already down 10% since last June (on a per sqft median basis), and with prices that continue to drop and inventory that continues to rise? All this happening in the spring/summer months which traditionally are RE boom times?
 

SampSon

Diamond Member
Jan 3, 2006
7,160
1
0
Originally posted by: Slew Foot
Originally posted by: SampSon
I have to leave in a few minutes, and don't have time to write a big post or argue with people.

Though I do have a suggestion, take what Slew Foot says with a huge grain of salt.



You obviously dont live in CA. If nice coastal regions always hold RE value, then why is San Diego, arguably one of the nicest areas in the country, already down 10% since last June (on a per sqft median basis), and with prices that continue to drop and inventory that continues to rise? All this happening in the spring/summer months which traditionally are RE boom times?
I don't need to live in CA to understand the market. My company does business in CA, in the RE game.

The market will readjust, though don't expect it to drop to levels near what they were 10 years ago. Sure speculators will get burnt in the middle of property flipping, thoes are the ones mostly involved in negam loans. They intended to sell the property for a profit and not have to carry a long term mortgage. Though neg-am loans do not represent the majority of homeowners in the state, by any stretch of the imagination. People have this perception that everyone who bought in California in the past few years have no intention of living in the state and just want to make a profit. If that was the case then California would see a decline in population, or at least a very stable population.

This year June has been slow for -everybody- in the market. The market is slowing down and people are settling into the homes and loans they pulled to make it happen. The market can't continue to steam ahead the way it has been, so it will level off. The realistic typical holding period for a 30 year mortgage in America is 5-7 years, we are currently entering into the first year or two of that holding period.

You arn't going to see any major exile from California, it's a state with high demand and it will stay that way until it sinks into the ocean. You come off as if the sky is falling in California, when it really isn't and it's just following the natural cycles of the market.
 

Dr. Detroit

Diamond Member
Sep 25, 2004
8,517
914
126
Originally posted by: Paddington
Originally posted by: Fmr12B
There is more to life than owning a home. Invest in your 401K plan and do your best to find a cheap place to live while saving all that you can.

Enjoy your life and laugh at all the suckers who are house-poor. While they are at Home-Depot shopping for remodeling supllies and mowing their lawns you are at the beach or traveling.


I too live in this great state and have it worse as I'm in the Bay Area, while I could afford a $700K mortgage, I would rather enjoy my life rather than being house-poor like so many of sappy co-workers. Not having to pay the plumber, or roofer, and having a maintenae guy at my Apt. complex means I never have to worry about crap going wrong.

:beer: Here's to living in an Apt. and investing my money in the Company 401K plan and traveling!

America gives such generous tax breaks for owning a home that you're losing out on a lot if you plan on renting your whole life. Those fellows with homes pay less taxes than you do, and are building equity.


Understood, I'm a public accountant.

In order to take the tax breaks you have to spend the money. You are not earning equity by paying 1.1-1.3% of your home value in property taxes and on a medain home price of $700K that is a good $700+/month. Add in water/sewer/garbage/ home-owners insurance, repairs and the cost of owning depreiciating assets like refrigerators and it starts to tip the favor to a renter paying $800 - $1200 a month.

If you expect those 20% gains I too agree that home-ownership is the way to go. Historically it is closer to 3-5% and when the median is $700K there is not much room for advancement as a a couple of double digit years of gains we will all be in a million dollar 1300 sq ft ranch houses. In order to get the gain on your home you hve to sell it and that requires you to depart with 6% of your home value to a realtor!

Sure you may lose 2-3% a year versus buying a house, however you will not be house-poor and living that lifestyle. You will not be earning sweat equity, you will have fresh countertops, new appliances, and new carpet. In a home, not!

This year I'll have travelled to:
Boston
Chicago
Dallas
Reno
Las Vegas
Washington DC

My house poor co-workers talk about laying sod................



 

T9D

Diamond Member
Dec 1, 2001
5,320
6
0
It is insane. But keep in mind also that if you own a home you make equity. Then you go to sell and step up it only costs you a little bit. If you get in the market you can stay there and play ball with the big boys too. Not everyone is jumping right in with a million dollar house payment. The longer you are out of the market the father behind you fall. If you can affortd it there ever you should try to start somewhere you can.

And for the guy who doesn't want to ever own a house..... thats cool you want to do that. To each their own. But I dont enjoy that. I feel so much more grounded and secure owning my own house. And I love to go to home depot and fix up my place. I love to be out in my own yard on my own property that I own. I enjoy sitting out in the sun relaxing on my very own property that no one controls.There is no feeling like it. I love haveing control how my house looks and what colors to paint. You feel much much more free than ever. I guess if you dont do it you dont know. I was worried to before I bought a place but after getting it there is nothing like it. also think about this. Some day your rent will be way more than what someones mortgage is that bought a house years before. So how free are you really? Because I played things right I now own many places and have no mortgage at all. Cant beat that for being free.
 

JS80

Lifer
Oct 24, 2005
26,271
7
81
Originally posted by: Slew Foot
Originally posted by: SampSon
I have to leave in a few minutes, and don't have time to write a big post or argue with people.

Though I do have a suggestion, take what Slew Foot says with a huge grain of salt.



You obviously dont live in CA. If nice coastal regions always hold RE value, then why is San Diego, arguably one of the nicest areas in the country, already down 10% since last June (on a per sqft median basis), and with prices that continue to drop and inventory that continues to rise? All this happening in the spring/summer months which traditionally are RE boom times?

Down 10% this year, up 100% last 4 years, you're still up 80% and it's still very expensive. Real estate investors don't necessarily have to sell. People who will be forced to sell are far to none, and even they made money on the house from buying 3-5 years ago.
 

bennylong

Platinum Member
Apr 20, 2006
2,493
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0
Don't ask me, I'm in the same positon as you. I have $150k in a my 401k and another $80k for down payment, no debt, yet, I can't afford a house in Southern CA.

I think the only people that can afford it are the people that bought their house back in the 1980 or 1960.

The people in their 20's or 30's are screwed unless you have two income and making over $150k total.