As you mentioned, it depends on the tax bracket. For some people it certainly a huge savings. But everyone always talks about the tax deduction like its just a bunch of free money. But the truth is it isn't even 25% for most of the people that use it.
In order to deduct your mortgage interest you have to itemize and when you itemize you have to give up the standard deduction. So if you're a married couple its really "25% of your mortgage interest (and other itemizations) MINUS $11,600 (current standard deduction for married filing jointly couple)".
Say you just got a brand spanking new 200K mortgage in January this year and you put 20% down and have an interest rate of 4.25%. You pay ~$9100 in mortgage interest this year. It depends on your state income taxes and property taxes whether you'll even get over the standard deduction amount. Say you have $5500 property and incomes taxes. So that's (14600 - 11600) * 0.25 tax rate = $750. You get $750 for having that mortgage from the government. Whoopdee shit, time for a new flat screen. It isn't nothing but it isn't changing a family's lifestyle either.
Obviously, if you get ass reamed by state taxes (I do) or have a huge fucking loan its a bigger deal, but even then the amount of interest you pay goes down every year reducing the payout slowly over time....while the standard deduction amount grows every year. So chances are you'll end up taking the standard deduction again before the loan term is even up. Hell, if you bought a cheaper house and lived in a low tax area you might never even use itemize at all. So for your average middle income family it isn't doing shit anymore because interest rates are low as hell and property cost is extremely high, the opposite of the high inflation 70s and early 80s.
That's how it seems to work to me though. Am I missing something? I acknowledge the tax code isn't exactly easy to interpret.
True that.
I do sometimes forget about itemization, but while you aren't necessarily getting the whole benefit, the opportunity cost of having vs not having the money the money should be factored it.
#1) Security. What would worry you more: Owning your home, no/low savings, and losing your job or having a mortgage with $200k in savings and losing your job? You still have food, utilities, taxes, etc, etc to pay. $200k safety net will keep you just fine for a looong time
#2) Opportunity cost. A 30 year timeline (heck, even a 15 year timeline) is long enough to consider using the historical rate of return on the market, which last I checked a few months ago was in the neighborhood of 9%, which would make buying it straight up an extremely poor decision. Even a return of 6% should do the trick (not going to do the math on it right now).
Even though you wouldn't get the full benefit of the deduction, your opportunities elsewhere are sufficiently high as to be advantageous to have the loan, from both a long term financial standpoint and a short term financial standpoint.
I am not against outright home ownership or paying off the loan early, I plan on paying mine off early - it's just a very, very low priority. I'm saying that there are a lot of advantages and reasons to NOT pay off a mortgage early.