What are the effects on the US economy in the case of a Chinese recession (if any)?
I have been debating with my friend that there is a positive effect on the US economy - he says otherwise and put money where his mouth is and purchased a sizable position September 41 QQQQ puts.
him: you're making it sound like a bad bet... and i completely disagree with you on falling chinese economy has no effect on the us. i think you hold a minority view on that one
me: enlighten me how a falling chinese economy has any bearing on the US economy?
Chinese economy stalls, less energy demanded, oil price falls => good for US
Chinese economy stalls, less commodities demanded, commodity price falls => good for US
No effect on Chinese goods from US due to USD peg
What am I missing macro-wise?
I have been debating with my friend that there is a positive effect on the US economy - he says otherwise and put money where his mouth is and purchased a sizable position September 41 QQQQ puts.
him: you're making it sound like a bad bet... and i completely disagree with you on falling chinese economy has no effect on the us. i think you hold a minority view on that one
me: enlighten me how a falling chinese economy has any bearing on the US economy?
Chinese economy stalls, less energy demanded, oil price falls => good for US
Chinese economy stalls, less commodities demanded, commodity price falls => good for US
No effect on Chinese goods from US due to USD peg
What am I missing macro-wise?