Originally posted by: pcoffman
I hope you're wrong, and that software can be written that will take better advantage of multicore. The primary driver of performance in the future is going to be adding more cores and learning how to take advantage of those cores. It won't be clock speeds so much.
I hope I'm wrong too, but I don't think that I am. Multi-processor (and therefore, multi-core) systems have been available for x86 workstation and server PCs for years, dating back at least to the PPro days. 3d rendering apps, Photoshop, CAD apps, compilers, and other apps have been aggressively multithreaded for years as well. Dual-core CPUs for the desktop are breaking ground that professional-grade computer platforms broke years ago, and believe me, there are serious problems involved with trying to get a single app intended for a single user to utilize many CPUs (or cores) simultaneously. You can get compilers to do it, and you can spawn multiple applications, but multithreading has certain limitations that can not be easily overcome.
It is possible that the proliferation of consumer-level multicore CPUs and the even-increasing need to squeeze performance out of new hardware (in order to sell said hardware) will finally spur additional progress in multithreading, but do keep in mind that coders and compiler monkies have been working for years to take advantage of dual and quad CPU platforms via multithreading. What we see now in highly-optimized professional apps should give us an idea of how hard it is to utilize 4 or more cores in a single app, and from what I've seen, pegging 4 cores at 100% CPU usage with a single multithreaded app is very difficult. I think you can do it with a compiler and maybe some 3d rendering and/or CAD apps.
Furthermore, everyone's going multicore, so the idea that the future lies in our ability to use multiple cores successfully is only partially true. He who has the best individual core wins. Both Intel and AMD will have quad core systems available for consumers within the next year or so. Whoever can populate these CPUs with superior cores and superior interconnects will win. It's still about clock speed and ipc.