Bye, Bye Berlusconi.

[Beowulf]

Originally posted by: techs

Originally posted by: maddogchen
Remains too close to call. techs jumped the gun a bit.

I was just posting because I saw it like in ten places.
I wonder, do they have Diebold voting machines in Italy?
Or just cr*ppy exit polls?
Because exit polls in the US are like, 99.8 percent correct.

I have to think its crappy exit polls if this often happens according to BBC

 

[CessnaFlyer]

I guess the Post 9-11 mentality of the world is America needs to be confronted and voters are electing anti-American politicians.

Is that why Germany elected a Pro Bush leader?

 

[theeedude]

Originally posted by: Genx87

Originally posted by: senseamp

Originally posted by: Genx87

Originally posted by: senseamp

Originally posted by: ntdz

Originally posted by: techs
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jh...et=/portal/2006/04/10/ixportaltop.html

Voting has finished in Italy's general election, and early exit polls suggest that centre-left leader Romano Prodi will be the new Italian prime minister, beating incumbent Silvio Berlusconi.

A poll by the Nexus research institute indicated that Mr Prodi's alliance would win between 50 and 54 per cent of the vote in both the lower house and the Senate upper house of parliament.



Interestingly Italys involvement in Iraq was not an issue since Berlusconi has set a firm date for Italian withdrawal.
This is interesting in that Bushes American foreign policy has caused a huge backlash with voters in Europe and South America turning leftward in increasing numbers.
It seems England is our only remaining ally in Iraq and that seems to be a function of Blairs popularity on other issues keeping him in office.
I guess the Post 9-11 mentality of the world is America needs to be confronted and voters are electing anti-American politicians.

Haven't you learned from 2004 that exit polls aren't right? 😉

That hasn't been proven, and I wouldn't be so sure that it was the exit polls that weren't right.

Yeah right, 02 wasnt any different. Exit polls are not an accurate way to declare victory.

But they may be an accurate way to measure voter intent. Whether the voter intent translates into election outcome depends on other factors. These are well known and commonly used statistical methods we are talking about. There is a chance that the exit poll is wrong, but with large enough sample size, it's highly unlikely, and even more unlikely that many exit polls in many different precincts have a large discrepancy from the vote count.

Well the last 3 elections in this country have seen exit polls crash and burn.

Bush was supposed to lose Florida in 00 according to the exit polls and he didnt.
In 02 the polls were all out of whack.
And in 04 the exit polls had Kerry winning but he ended up losing byu ~3.5 million votes.

I think they are cute to talk about and give the news people something to focus on but they dont seem to be very accurate with regards to how actual voter turnout goes.

I think statistics is cute too. But when there are discrepancies, they need to be explained, and so far they haven't been. So we don't know if the exit poll is wrong or recording and counting of votes is wrong or people lie at exit polls.
Independent exit polls are essential for monitoring elections. Especially if there is no paper trail to do a recount. Significant discrepancies between exit polls and results should be investigated.

 

[chcarnage]

I would like to write some things but this has to wait until tomorrow.

Rest assured that American foreign policy didn't influence this election. The Italians have had plenty of other topics to discuss in the campaigns.

The result for the parliament and the senate chamber may vary because Italians have to be at least 25 years old to vote a Senator candidate.

Live election results are online here: http://www.corriere.it

 

[glenn1]

Interestingly Italys involvement in Iraq was not an issue since Berlusconi has set a firm date for Italian withdrawal.
This is interesting in that Bushes American foreign policy has caused a huge backlash with voters in Europe and South America turning leftward in increasing numbers.

The actual record is rather more mixed, perhaps it's even fair to say that closer to the opposite has occured. Yes, Zapatero did win in Spain, but after that the more conservative candidates have been winning pretty steadily - Bush beat Kerry, Harper beat Martin in Canada, Howard was reelected in Australia, Angela Merkel beat Schroeder, etc. Admittedly some of the races have been close (like Germany's) while others have been fairly lopsided (like Howard's win). If Belusconi does lose, it'll bring the numbers closer to a mixed record, but for right now, saying there's a popular anti-American/Iraq War backlash in foreign policy is more wishful thinking than reality.

As far as South America turning left, that does seem to be the trend (particularly if the relative unknown Humala wins in Peru), but it's quite debateable how much of that is due to concerns over American foreign policy.

 

[conjur]

Italy Heads Toward Split in Parliament
AP - 16 minutes ago
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060411/ap_...;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl

ROME - Silvio Berlusconi, Italy's longest-serving premier since World War II, was locked in a battle for power Tuesday with his center-left challenger, as the country's parliament apparently headed toward an irreconcilable split between their coalitions. Final results in the two-day vote ending Monday showed Romano Prodi's center-left winning control in the lower house of parliament, with 49.8 percent of the vote compared to 49.7 won by Berlusconi's conservatives. The winning coalition is automatically awarded 55 percent of the seats, according to a new electoral law.

 

[Rainsford]

Originally posted by: Genx87

Originally posted by: senseamp

Originally posted by: Genx87

Originally posted by: senseamp

Originally posted by: ntdz

Originally posted by: techs
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jh...et=/portal/2006/04/10/ixportaltop.html

Voting has finished in Italy's general election, and early exit polls suggest that centre-left leader Romano Prodi will be the new Italian prime minister, beating incumbent Silvio Berlusconi.

A poll by the Nexus research institute indicated that Mr Prodi's alliance would win between 50 and 54 per cent of the vote in both the lower house and the Senate upper house of parliament.



Interestingly Italys involvement in Iraq was not an issue since Berlusconi has set a firm date for Italian withdrawal.
This is interesting in that Bushes American foreign policy has caused a huge backlash with voters in Europe and South America turning leftward in increasing numbers.
It seems England is our only remaining ally in Iraq and that seems to be a function of Blairs popularity on other issues keeping him in office.
I guess the Post 9-11 mentality of the world is America needs to be confronted and voters are electing anti-American politicians.

Haven't you learned from 2004 that exit polls aren't right? 😉

That hasn't been proven, and I wouldn't be so sure that it was the exit polls that weren't right.

Yeah right, 02 wasnt any different. Exit polls are not an accurate way to declare victory.

But they may be an accurate way to measure voter intent. Whether the voter intent translates into election outcome depends on other factors. These are well known and commonly used statistical methods we are talking about. There is a chance that the exit poll is wrong, but with large enough sample size, it's highly unlikely, and even more unlikely that many exit polls in many different precincts have a large discrepancy from the vote count.

Well the last 3 elections in this country have seen exit polls crash and burn.

Bush was supposed to lose Florida in 00 according to the exit polls and he didnt.
In 02 the polls were all out of whack.
And in 04 the exit polls had Kerry winning but he ended up losing byu ~3.5 million votes.

I think they are cute to talk about and give the news people something to focus on but they dont seem to be very accurate with regards to how actual voter turnout goes.

Exit polls are fine, the problem is that nobody who reads them seems to understand the "correct to within +/- x%". It's like those words don't even exist for commentators on either side. Some people wonder if the polling data indicates Bush stole the election, and guys like you laugh at the polls that show Kerry winning in 2004. And yet nobody seems to understand that polls DO NOT give you the exact results, they predict it within a range. Sure, sometimes they will be more accurate than others, but even in 2004, polling was scientifically accurate, it's not their fault that people can't read.

Here's an excellent example from 2004. Approximations put the vote at about 48% Kerry, 51% Bush. That is a difference of 3%, which means if Bush's results had been 1.5% (of the total voters) lower, and Kerry's had been 1.5% higher, Kerry would be President. This is well within the margin of error in every poll I've seen for the 2004 election. Perhaps they were LESS accurate than they have been in the past, but they are still just as accurate as they claim to be. The fact that they are simply "cute to talk about" is our fault for being too dumb to understand what polling data means. Well, not "our" fault...I think I understand it pretty well 😉

 

[Rainsford]

Originally posted by: glenn1

Interestingly Italys involvement in Iraq was not an issue since Berlusconi has set a firm date for Italian withdrawal.
This is interesting in that Bushes American foreign policy has caused a huge backlash with voters in Europe and South America turning leftward in increasing numbers.

The actual record is rather more mixed, perhaps it's even fair to say that closer to the opposite has occured. Yes, Zapatero did win in Spain, but after that the more conservative candidates have been winning pretty steadily - Bush beat Kerry, Harper beat Martin in Canada, Howard was reelected in Australia, Angela Merkel beat Schroeder, etc. Admittedly some of the races have been close (like Germany's) while others have been fairly lopsided (like Howard's win). If Belusconi does lose, it'll bring the numbers closer to a mixed record, but for right now, saying there's a popular anti-American/Iraq War backlash in foreign policy is more wishful thinking than reality.

As far as South America turning left, that does seem to be the trend (particularly if the relative unknown Humala wins in Peru), but it's quite debateable how much of that is due to concerns over American foreign policy.

I think the recent election results tend to show that we aren't as important as we think we our. Sure, the way we are viewed overseas is an issue (and I think we're kidding ourselves if we think it's even close to positivly), but I think the average voter votes on more issues than just what the leader's stance is on America or Bush's foreign policy. Foreign elections are a poor barometer for measuring foreign views of our country and our politics, a much better method is to actually poll the foreigners themselves. And the results really aren't all that great. The world may be electing a mixed bag of conservative and liberal leaders, but the results in whether or not they would elect BUSH tell a much different story.

 

[jlmadyson]

Prodi Claims Italian Election Victory; Berlusconi Seeks Recount

April 11 (Bloomberg) -- Romano Prodi claimed victory in the closest Italian election since World War II, as Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi demanded a recount.

Final results for the Chamber of Deputies showed Prodi's alliance winning by a margin of just 25,224 out of more than 38 million votes cast. In the Senate, Berlusconi's coalition held a one-seat lead, with the final outcome dependent on six seats set aside for Italians living abroad to be determined later today.

The returns raised the prospect that the two houses of parliament may wind up under divided control for the first time in half a century. Whatever the final result, the prime minister may be vulnerable to the demands of small coalition partners and find it hard to keep campaign promises to stimulate Italy's lagging economy and reduce the world's third-largest debt.

``A divided parliament would most likely lead to a temporary government,'' said Salvatore Zecchini, a professor of international economic policy at Rome's Tor Vergata University. A narrow majority for Prodi ``would make it very difficult to pass measures to boost growth and balance the public accounts.''

Whichever side wins the Senate will have only a narrow majority, excluding the votes of Italy's seven senators who are appointed for life. One life senator, former President Francesco Cossiga, said he would refrain from voting in a confidence vote. The other six haven't commented.

``We won,'' Prodi told flag-waving supporters in Rome at 2:53 a.m, almost 12 hours after the polls closed. ``Now we must work together to unify this country.''

`Work Together'

Berlusconi's spokesman, Paolo Bonaiuti, called for ``a scrupulous verification of the ballots,'' adding that Prodi had failed to take more than half the overall vote.

``The difference between them is so minimal that it leaves open the possibility of a long-standing dispute over the result,'' said Antonio Noto, director of IPR Marketing, one of Italy's leading pollsters, in a telephone interview.

The outcome of the Italian vote has parallels with the inconclusive election result in Germany in September. Christian Democrat Angela Merkel eventually formed a ``grand coalition'' with the Social Democrats after two months of talks which led to outgoing Social Democrat Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's retirement from politics.

The 2000 U.S. presidential election won by George W. Bush hinged on a handful of votes in Florida.

Once the final results are in, Italian President Carlo Azeglio Ciampi, 85, will decide whether to ask Prodi or Berlusconi to try to form a government.

`Worst-Case Scenario'

``A split parliament would be the worst-case scenario,'' said Dario Perkins, an economist at ABN Amro NV in London.

Italy's economy is likely to trail that of its European neighbors for the 10th year in 11, according to European Commission forecasts. Prodi, 66, has promised to trim labor costs for businesses by $12 billion to stimulate growth and cut the world's third-biggest debt.

Prodi led by an average of 5 points in the final 10 opinion polls before a March 24 cutoff on surveys. In the final week of the campaign Berlusconi, 69, promised to eliminate the tax on first homes, while denouncing his rivals as communists and idiots. Prodi ended his campaign renewing pledges to seek unity and denouncing Berlusconi's economic record.

After exit polls showed Prodi comfortably ahead in both houses, the mood was euphoric among Prodi supporters gathered at his headquarters. When projections showed the race was tight, the mood changed visibly.

``I was happy for about five minutes,'' said Gina Guandalini, 55, who teaches literature at a private university in Rome. ``I wanted a landslide victory but it's painful to see that it's not going to be the case.''

Voting System

The vote was carried out under a new proportional voting system similar to the one that produced 52 governments in 48 years until it was abandoned in 1994.

During the final week of the campaign, Berlusconi attacked Milan magistrates for trying to end his political career. Prodi stressed the need for unity ``for the good of all of Italy.''

Prodi's previous administration collapsed in 1998 after little more than two years when a communist ally withdrew support and he lost a confidence vote by a single ballot. Three center-left governments and two different prime ministers rounded out that five-year legislature.

Berlusconi's Union of Christian Democrat allies forced him to step down and form a new government a year ago after losing 12 of 14 regional elections.

 

[BaliBabyDoc]

Martin lost b/c Liberals had gotten fat and lazy with power.
Schroeder had nothing to run on other than being against Bush.

Kerry . . . well he just sux. Given a different choice Bush could have easily lost.

Howard won in Australia b/c aside from wildfires and cyclones . . . Aussies are doing pretty well.

Spain wanted change . . . and the handling of the Madrid bombing arguably sealed the conservatives fate.

Italy is one of the worst fiscal disasters in Europe and Berlusconi oozes public sleaze.


The truth is that the citizenry of EVERY country above except for the US was opposed to the Bush War. There's very little doubt that Bush is unpopular in ALL of these countries (including the US). But as Rainsford noted; most informed voters go to the polls with multiple issues in mind . . . most of which have little to do with the idiot king of America.

 

[conjur]

Berlusconi needs power a bit longer to help hide his involvement in criminal activity.

 

[Rainsford]

Originally posted by: BaliBabyDoc
...
Italy is one of the worst fiscal disasters in Europe and Berlusconi oozes public sleaze.
...

It's funny. I recently spent 1 week in Italy, and while I knew virtually nothing about Italian politics, I left with those two impressions strong in my mind. They are having tremendous financial issues, which would explain the increasing popularity of the communists and other far-lefties there, and Berlusconi makes Tom Delay look good.

 

[glenn1]

The truth is that the citizenry of EVERY country above except for the US was opposed to the Bush War. There's very little doubt that Bush is unpopular in ALL of these countries (including the US). But as Rainsford noted; most informed voters go to the polls with multiple issues in mind . . . most of which have little to do with the idiot king of America.

That's fine and I agree, however those opposed to Bush or the Iraq war can't have it both ways - either anti-Americanism is a minor factor in foreign elections, or someone like Zapatero or Prodi winning is a direct repudiation of Bush and American foreign policy. Personally I think #1 is correct and the second is just so much smug posturing from those opposed to Bush.

BTW, Prodi isn't exactly a firebrand liberal - his nickname is "the professor" and he's about as boring and milquetoast as institutional cafeteria food.

 

[Rainsford]

Originally posted by: glenn1

The truth is that the citizenry of EVERY country above except for the US was opposed to the Bush War. There's very little doubt that Bush is unpopular in ALL of these countries (including the US). But as Rainsford noted; most informed voters go to the polls with multiple issues in mind . . . most of which have little to do with the idiot king of America.

That's fine and I agree, however those opposed to Bush or the Iraq war can't have it both ways - either anti-Americanism is a minor factor in foreign elections, or someone like Zapatero or Prodi winning is a direct repudiation of Bush and American foreign policy. Personally I think #1 is correct and the second is just so much smug posturing from those opposed to Bush.

BTW, Prodi isn't exactly a firebrand liberal - his nickname is "the professor" and he's about as boring and milquetoast as institutional cafeteria food.

Isn't Prodi a communist...or something quite close?

In any case, I agree with your view on the foreign elections, but I'd also add that it applies equally to conservatives who think Germany is a big feather in Bush's cap. As you said, you can't have it both ways 😉

 

[glenn1]

It's funny. I recently spent 1 week in Italy, and while I knew virtually nothing about Italian politics, I left with those two impressions strong in my mind. They are having tremendous financial issues, which would explain the increasing popularity of the communists and other far-lefties there, and Berlusconi makes Tom Delay look good.

Small world, I was just there a few days ago myself (Florence and Venice - wanted to go visit Lugano/Lake Como as well but didn't have the time). Saw the debate on Italian TV. And Berlusconi does remind me of a used car salesman, internet spammer, or some other sort of a unsavory character.

 

[Rainsford]

Originally posted by: glenn1

It's funny. I recently spent 1 week in Italy, and while I knew virtually nothing about Italian politics, I left with those two impressions strong in my mind. They are having tremendous financial issues, which would explain the increasing popularity of the communists and other far-lefties there, and Berlusconi makes Tom Delay look good.

Small world, I was just there a few days ago myself (Florence and Venice - wanted to go visit Lugano/Lake Como as well but didn't have the time). Saw the debate on Italian TV. And Berlusconi does remind me of a used car salesman, internet spammer, or some other sort of a unsavory character.

Cool. I was in Florence as well, but I spent the rest of my time in Rome and Naples.

 

[glenn1]

Cool. I was in Florence as well, but I spent the rest of my time in Rome and Naples.

Were you there for "Culture Week" when entrance to the Uffizi was free?

 

[Rainsford]

Originally posted by: glenn1

Cool. I was in Florence as well, but I spent the rest of my time in Rome and Naples.

Were you there for "Culture Week" when entrance to the Uffizi was free?

Nope, I was there at the end of March, missed it by a little bit.

Edit: Very much worth the entry fee though, I can see why it's the most popular museum in Italy.

 

[jlmadyson]

ITALY VOTE - Berlusconi takes lead in Senate fight

ROME (AFX) - Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi's center-right bloc was leading in a tight race to control the Senate after Italy's general election, official figures showed.

Berlusconi's House of Freedom's coalition held a one-seat margin over Romano Prodi's opposition Union in the race for the upper house even after losing in the Campania region, which includes Naples.

Berlusconi's bloc has a total of 155 seats in the 315-seat upper house -- a one-seat margin over Prodi's center-left coalition with 154.

Six Senate seats allocated to overseas Italians, who were allowed to run in the election for the first time, had yet to be counted.

The interior ministry said the results for those six seats, and therefore the definitive result of the Senate elections, would not be known until later today.

Results of the vote for the lower house Chamber of Deputies, which has powers equal to the Senate's, later showed Prodi's alliance had secured a majority.

In order to govern, one of the coalitions has to win control of both houses of parliament.

Interesting

 

[BarneyFife]

Belusconi is great. He's a comedian.

 

[ntdz]

Originally posted by: conjur
Berlusconi needs power a bit longer to help hide his involvement in criminal activity.

His billions won't do?

 

[Steeplerot]

Originally posted by: ntdz

Originally posted by: conjur
Berlusconi needs power a bit longer to help hide his involvement in criminal activity.

His billions won't do?

We are talking about italia here not america. 😉

BTW congrats Italy for ditching the bush bottom kissing fascist. Viva!

 

[Skyclad1uhm1]

Originally posted by: Steeplerot

Originally posted by: ntdz

Originally posted by: conjur
Berlusconi needs power a bit longer to help hide his involvement in criminal activity.

His billions won't do?

We are talking about italia here not america. 😉

BTW congrats Italy for ditching the bush bottom kissing fascist. Viva!

It doesn't matter anymore for him, as he created a law while in power which prevents him from being sued for anything. Not to mention that all the previous TV 'debates' consisted of him being shown with perfect sound and image, and the image being shaken and the sound crackling when Prodi was in sight. And the owner of that, and all other major Italian TV stations happened to be Berlusconi himself, so guess what Hitlerian tactics caused those problems filming the opposition.

 

[Steeplerot]

Originally posted by: Skyclad1uhm1

Originally posted by: Steeplerot

Originally posted by: ntdz

Originally posted by: conjur
Berlusconi needs power a bit longer to help hide his involvement in criminal activity.

His billions won't do?

We are talking about italia here not america. 😉

BTW congrats Italy for ditching the bush bottom kissing fascist. Viva!

It doesn't matter anymore for him, as he created a law while in power which prevents him from being sued for anything. Not to mention that all the previous TV 'debates' consisted of him being shown with perfect sound and image, and the image being shaken and the sound crackling when Prodi was in sight. And the owner of that, and all other major Italian TV stations happened to be Berlusconi himself, so guess what Hitlerian tactics caused those problems filming the opposition.

Sounds like our foxnews, except they don't admit they are owned by the republican party. 😉
But we know they are "Fairly Bought-out"