Here is the bottom line:
Unless you do oil analysis, anything any of us say is a pure guess. It could be an educated guess, but it is still a guess.
The only way to tell if the brand and weight of oil you chose is doing its job under your environmental conditions with your driving habits and your individual engine is to run oil analysis.
Essentially, oil change intervals are worst case scenario numbers, because these variables are impossible to figure in.
You may well be able to get 10,000 miles out of synthetic. You also may well be able to get 10,000 miles out of a high quality regular oil. The distinction between synthetic and dino is actually quite blurred - there are high quality dino oils that have better specifications than low quality synthetics. It's just not black and white.
The thing that people need to realize is that not all brands are created equal. There is a very wide variation in formulation, which may or may not work well for your engine, driving habits and environment.
To complicate matters, a 10W-30 isn't a 10W-30 isn't a 10W-30. The numbers on the bottle actually tell very little about the properties of the oil, it is just a general guideline. There are 0W-30's that are closer to 40 weight, and 5W-30's that are closer to a 20 weight.
It really is very counter intuitive. I suggest if you are really going to worry about this, do some research on BITOG and do oil analysis.
After you get an idea of what is and isn't working for your engine, you don't have to keep doing them. I say you should have a good idea of what brands and weights are good after 5 tests if you do some research to narrow it down in the first place.
Edit: I feel the need to elaborate more.
Most people don't pay any attention to their driving environment. If you live in an area where it is very hot in the summer, and very cold in the winter, you will probably find that synthetic is better just for the convenience factor - that way you're less likely to have to use two grades throughout the year. A car driving in Arizona during the summer demands different oil characteristics than the same car driving in Alaska during any time of the year.
It's silly to make blanket statements on this subject. They are anecdotal at best, and completely wrong at worst. Again, I will reiterate - the only way to know for sure is to do oil analysis.