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Boris's days probably numbered.

P

pmv

Lifer
The Tories look set to continue their pattern of giving every Tory MP (and maybe, eventually, everyone in the country) a turn at being Tory leader.

Though he won the no-confidence vote, so did Theresa May, but she was still out shortly afterwards - and his winning margin was even smaller than her's (211:148 vs 200:117).

www.theguardian.com

‘Out in a year’: what the papers say about Tory vote on Boris Johnson

Only the most stridently supportive titles stand vocally behind prime minister after 41% of his own MPs vote for his removal
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

Funnily enough, the Parliament Square bus stop predicted the vote better than anyone.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1533920156728139782
 
sdifox said:
Is Labour even viable now?
Click to expand...

Hard to say. Personally I think Starmer is far too bland and non-committal about everything to really take advantage of Tory weakness. He ought to be doing better than he is, considering the absolutely disastrous inflation problem and the still-lingering effects of "Partygate". But the Tories are masters at self-destruction-through-infighting, and they are obviously now a house divided.

Funny thing is that Boris seems more unpopular with traditional Southern Tories than with the new Northern Tory voters. Two byelections coming up, one looks likely to go Lib Dem, the other Labour.
 
I think if they had the vote before the war in Ukraine when the fallout from Partygate was much bigger the vote could have gone the other way. All his opponents would have had to do was run the photo of the Queen mourning Prince Philip alone juxtaposed to Boris drinking at one of the Number 10 parties which, AFAIK, happened the very same day.

His latest thing is to try to rally the Boomer Brexiteers by saying he'll chuck the metric system and bring back imperial measurements:

Boris Johnson to reportedly bring back imperial measurements to mark platinum jubilee | Brexit | The Guardian
 
uallas5 said:
I think if they had the vote before the war in Ukraine when the fallout from Partygate was much bigger the vote could have gone the other way. All his opponents would have had to do was run the photo of the Queen mourning Prince Philip alone juxtaposed to Boris drinking at one of the Number 10 parties which, AFAIK, happened the very same day.

His latest thing is to try to rally the Boomer Brexiteers by saying he'll chuck the metric system and bring back imperial measurements:

Boris Johnson to reportedly bring back imperial measurements to mark platinum jubilee | Brexit | The Guardian
Click to expand...


Err whut? Not isolated enough? Let's go back to Imperial!
 
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Damn, these are bad ratings! Worse than I'd have expected, really.

I can just about understand "gets things done" (given he bulldozed his way to Brexit, albeit by just ignoring all the problems with NI) and "likeable" (not that I find him so, but he clearly comes over well on TV). But I find it quite astonishing that as many as 25% of respondents associated "sticks to his principles" with the guy, given that one of his defining characteristics is that he hasn't got any.

Amusingly low ratings for trustworthyness, though. I do wonder how much the negatives on "represents what most people think" is due to him being seen as an out-of-touch priivleged toff and how much is actually due to a lot of socially-conservative voters thinking he's too liberal.

And with such high negatives for 'competent' he's surely doomed.


1654617799024.png

(Graphic borrowed from the yahoo story:
)
 
If I had to pick one of those qualities to 'agree' with, I'd be tempted to concede "brave", on the basis that he does cycle in London traffic. And maybe even 'not as unlikable on a personal-level as the average Tory MP'.

But how can anyone react to the one about 'sticks to his principles' with anything other than cracking up with laughter? If he had a principle it would die of loneliness. And I wouldn't trust him to decide on pizza toppings, never mind 'big decisions'.
 
evident said:
Seems like the tory's are still going to stay in power even with their shitty leadership?
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Maybe. I've seen some arguments that this maybe the best outcome for critics of the Tories — Boris survives, but the vote drags down confidence in him and the party as a whole.
 
Commodus said:
Maybe. I've seen some arguments that this maybe the best outcome for critics of the Tories — Boris survives, but the vote drags down confidence in him and the party as a whole.
Click to expand...


Yeah, if he hadn't survived the vote they'd have been able to try the trick of changing leader and pretending this was a brand new government anyway, so no need for any further change come the election. Now they are stuck with an increasingly-unpopular leader.

On the other hand, the Conservatives don't seem to have many credible candidates to replace him with anyway. Possibly if they'd had to dump him they'd have ended up with someone even more unpopular.

The downside, it seems to me, is that it encourages Labour to just employ the strategy of waiting for the Conservatives to implode, rather than coming up with any inspiring plans of their own. Which might make any subsequent Labour government a short-lived one.

I think this is saying more-or-less the same thing

www.theguardian.com

Labour faces dilemma of attack against weakened Boris Johnson

Analysis: Opposition split on whether to target unpopular PM or wider Tory brand, but true test is to pitch Keir Starmer to country
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com


No matter their public exhortations that Johnson must go for the good of the country, there is broad consensus among Labour MPs that Johnson is a major asset for the Labour party – and the data seems to prove that analysis.

There is no social group that trusts the prime minister – even Conservatives. Labour is leading on trust on almost all policy measures, including the economy. According to the latest YouGov MRP poll, the Conservatives are set to lose 85 out of 88 Labour-facing seats.

But there is also a fear that Labour’s comfortable polling now is dependent on Johnson, rather than the party making its own weather. Keir Starmer’s speech after the result of the Tory MPs’ no-confidence ballot barely registered.
Click to expand...
 
As predicted they got crushed in the two by-elections. Interesting that they are crumbling from both 'ends', losing in both the working class north and the affluent rural south-west, to both Labour and the Lib Dems.

Of course, he still insists on hanging on in there. This really is the most _incompetent_ government we've ever had.
Not just ideologically not to my taste, as with most Tory governments, but (unusually for Tories) inept and directionless. I might have hated Thatcher, but she was competent and extremely successful at doing what she wanted to do.

Boris, perhaps like Trump, doesn't seem to even know what he wants to do with power now he has it - other than having "Prime Minister" on his CV (and strike Churchillian postures - maybe our loss is Ukraine's gain?)

Nothing is working properly in this country now. Every part of the state is ceasing to function - we have all-time-record NHS waiting lists, the court system has clogged up with massive backlogs in cases, the vehicle licensing agency and the passport agency are both suffering from disastrous backlogs in issuing documents (and thus adding to the economic turmoil, because people can't work without required documents), the railways have gone on strike (not unconnected to the fact that thanks to inflation hitting the highest level since the 1970s, workers in general have suffered the greatest drop in real income levels for 200 years)

It's hard to trace a direct chain-of-causation for some of the chaos - the pandemic hasn't helped - but it seems like the tone is ultimately set by having a public-school dilettante at the top who has gotten used to relying on luck, charm and privilege to escape all consequences of his failure to focus on the job in hand.

 
I probably should pay closer attention to UK politics. If Trump is re-elected in 2024, UK is on top of our list of places to move to should that happen.
 
kt said:
I probably should pay closer attention to UK politics. If Trump is re-elected in 2024, UK is on top of our list of places to move to should that happen.
Click to expand...

Unless things change here dramatically, expect the UK to walk the US's line, perhaps with a decade or two's lag.
 
Rishi Sunak leaving is a pretty big deal. I’d measure Boris’ remaining time in office in weeks, not months.
 
mikeymikec said:
Unless things change here dramatically, expect the UK to walk the US's line, perhaps with a decade or two's lag.
Click to expand...

There is going to be some level of bad anywhere you go, it can't be any worse than the US in the current state. You do realize that democracy as we know it in the US will die if Trump manages to win in 2024? We picked the UK because my wife is a citizen and her parents are also planning to move there. Our other option is another country in the EU.
 
kt said:
There is going to be some level of bad anywhere you go, it can't be any worse than the US in the current state. You do realize that democracy as we know it in the US will die if Trump manages to win in 2024? We picked the UK because my wife is a citizen and her parents are also planning to move there. Our other option is another country in the EU.
Click to expand...
The main problem is if democracy dies in the US we are way too big and way too powerful for other countries to really get away from.

I personally don’t think Trump will win or even be the nominee in 2024 (Hi, DeSantis!) but if I end up being wrong I think shit is going to go sideways in a very large number of ways very quickly as Trump will be out for revenge and he will know he no longer faces any meaningful constraint.
 
Like if Trump gets indicted like I think he will and somehow wins the presidency anyway if I were Joe Biden, Obama, or one of several hundred other people I would flee the country during the transition period as Trump will definitely attempt to put them in prison.
 
kt said:
I probably should pay closer attention to UK politics. If Trump is re-elected in 2024, UK is on top of our list of places to move to should that happen.
Click to expand...
you guys keep saying stuff like this, i have to ask, you know that's not true, right? you can't just "move here".
 
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