Blu-ray is dead

[tk149]

I wanted HD-DVD to win, but after Toshiba quit, I bought a PS3.

My dad has poor eyesight. I recently played a BR clip from "Planet Earth" on my 1080p 52" TV, and even he could see the difference between upscaled DVD's and Blu-Ray.

Would he go out and buy a BR player? I don't know. Probably not until they drop below $150.

Anyway, my point is that if even my dad can see the difference, just about anyone can. They'll need a big-screen HDTV though. Whether or not most people think the upgrade is worth it will be totally dependent on the price of players and media.

I think one of the driving forces behind DVD adoption was the advent of Apex sub-$100 DVD players. They forced the rest of the companies to create cheaper DVD players, and really brought DVD within reach of the average family.

I don't think BR is going to die, but I don't think it'll take off like DVD did, unless a new Apex shows up (Apex went Bankrupt).

I suspect that even fewer households have a super-wide internet pipe to download HD content than have 42" or larger HDTV's. I don't think digital download is really going to take off until a LOT more people have 3 MB/s or higher.

 

[Oyeve]

I have an HDTV and have no plans on getting BR. Upscaled DVD is fine for me. If BR really takes off and kills DVD then I will buy one when its 100 or less. If something else comes out and kills BR and DVD then I will get that. I have seen BR movies and IMO not worth it right now. Again, if BR becomes mainstream and DVDs die off and BR movies can be had for 15 bucks on release day then I will switch.

 

[toslat]

Blu-ray is here to stay and people should accept it.

What happens in the consumer electronics and media marketplace is less dependent on consumer preferences than some seem to believe, but depends more on the direction of a few major players.

Going forward, there will be more 1080p sets, BR discs and players. Somewhere in the near future BR will overtake DVD, 1080p will overtake 480+720p. Plasma/LCD has already overtaken CRT.

If you have a problem with BR, I suggest you have yourself frozen in a cryogenic state, hopefully waking up in 10yrs+ to a new media standard.

The fate of BR is not in the hands of consumers, but rather in the the hands of the powers that be. Right now, the gods watch BR.

 

[DaveSimmons]

Let's look at this from another perspective. One month ago, Paramount's Iron Man became the first Blu-ray Disc release to sell 500,000 units in its first week of release. Industry sources tell me that the title has CONTINUED to sell well and is closing in on 1 million units sold.

Interesting, I hadn't read that.

And it's funny that 360 fanboys say PS3 owners only buy it for blu-ray, while HD-DVD confederates claim it's just being bought for games.

It's used for both, and worldwide Sony sold 2.43 million PS3s during July-September.

 

[Muadib]

I forgot to post this little tidbit to this thread.

October was the biggest month for Blu-ray yet.


Yeah, Blu-ray is dead.:roll:

 

[bananas]

downloadable HD content will be the future.

 

[bigdog1218]

Originally posted by: bananas
downloadable HD content will be the future.

Sure it is, in 10+ years. Internet download speeds are probably the only thing growing slower than Blu-ray sales. The average download speed in the US is 2.3mb/s, why would someone spend hundreds of dollars a year to upgrade their internet, but not pay $200 for a Blu-ray player?

 

[sdifox]

Originally posted by: bananas
downloadable HD content will be the future.

I don't think so... bandwidth cap is going to be the norm...

 

[coreyb]

ya i dont think so, maybe in the countries that have good internet download speeds.

 

[DisgruntledVirus]

Blu-ray is dead lol

Blu-ray isn't dead, it's just much slower than DVD was at the same point in it's life span. There are three main reasons for this. First off DVD didn't have to compete with another format like Blu-ray vs HD-DVD. That caused adoption to slow, due to people waiting for a "winner" and because people got HD-DVD instead. Now people that got HD-DVD need to get Blu-ray, which they might not be very thrilled about buying.

Second reason is that not everybody needs/wants to spend money on it. Upscaling DVD players, people don't have HDTV's, online delivery, and the expense means that the adoption rate is going to be much slower.

Third reason is not everybody can tell a difference, or if they can don't want to have to RE-buy their current DVD collection. I know many people with hundreds or thousands of DVD's, that to replace with Blu-ray would cost thousands of dollars on top of hundreds or thousands already spent on DVD's.

There might be other reasons, but those are the 3 main reasons I see Blu-ray hasn't been fully adopted yet.

 

[sdifox]

Originally posted by: DisgruntledVirus
Blu-ray is dead lol

Blu-ray isn't dead, it's just much slower than DVD was at the same point in it's life span. There are three main reasons for this. First off DVD didn't have to compete with another format like Blu-ray vs HD-DVD. That caused adoption to slow, due to people waiting for a "winner" and because people got HD-DVD instead. Now people that got HD-DVD need to get Blu-ray, which they might not be very thrilled about buying.

Second reason is that not everybody needs/wants to spend money on it. Upscaling DVD players, people don't have HDTV's, online delivery, and the expense means that the adoption rate is going to be much slower.

Third reason is not everybody can tell a difference, or if they can don't want to have to RE-buy their current DVD collection. I know many people with hundreds or thousands of DVD's, that to replace with Blu-ray would cost thousands of dollars on top of hundreds or thousands already spent on DVD's.

There might be other reasons, but those are the 3 main reasons I see Blu-ray hasn't been fully adopted yet.

Last check I spent close to 18K on dvds...Frigging cost more than my entire home theatre setup, including replaced gears...And given the half ass job the studios are doing on high def re-releases, I am not rushing out to replace them.

 

[JackBurton]

I haven't had a chance to post in this thread in awhile because I was busy watching my Blu-ray movies in all their glory. BTW, NIN on Blu-ray looks AMAZING!

The fact is, the price of admission of Blu-ray is steep. The initial adoption will be slower than DVD just for the simple fact that you need an HDTV first. And as more people buy HDTVs and Blu-ray players start to drop in price, you'll start seeing spikes in Blu-ray sales. Streaming HD movies may be the future, but it is the distant future. First off, try explaining to some non-tech old guy, how to stream a movie. Good luck with that one. I have hard enough time explaining to them how to switch the source on their TV to select their BD player. Secondly, with stream media, you have two hurdles: Bandwidth caps and a higher internet bill to increase your internet speed to support large HD transfers. On top of that, you get an inferior transfer compared to Blu-ray.

Me personally, I hope Blu-ray stays a niche market. I like to be the only one with all the cool stuff.

 

[SlickSnake]

Originally posted by: JackBurton
I haven't had a chance to post in this thread in awhile because I was busy watching my Blu-ray movies in all their glory. BTW, NIN on Blu-ray looks AMAZING!

The fact is, the price of admission of Blu-ray is steep. The initial adoption will be slower than DVD just for the simple fact that you need an HDTV first. And as the more people buy HDTVs and Blu-ray players start to drop in price, you'll start seeing spikes in Blu-ray sales. Streaming HD movies may be the future, but it is the distant future. First off, try explaining to some non-tech old guy, how to stream a movie. Good luck with that one. I have hard enough time explaining to them how to switch the source on their TV to select their BD player. Secondly, with stream media, you have two hurdles: Bandwidth caps and a higher internet bill to increase your internet speed to support large HD transfers. On top of that, you get an inferior transfer compared to Blu-ray.

Me personally, I hope Blu-ray stays a niche market. I like to be the only one with all the cool stuff.

OMFG! You like NIN TO?!?!? We have something in COMMON?!?!? Lord have mercy!

BTW... NIN looks GREAT on HD-DVD, TOO! <hides>

And since you have 2 HD-DVD players, you are well on your way to HD niche market status, too! :laugh:

And the NEAR future of HD media is going to be HD movies on a memory stick of some sort, with no need for a player at all. You will be able to just plug it into the TV or HT receiver maybe via a common USB port and away you go in HD glory. No need for an add on player to break and you can easily transport a whole library of movies for traveling or playback an any device such as a laptop that has a proper USB implementation to handle the codec they will use.

 

[jeffw2767602]

Originally posted by: Wuzup101

Originally posted by: CFster
BS.

With everybody rushing out to buy new HD sets due to the impending end of OTA analog broadcasts, they will be looking for HD sources. Couple that with the expected Black Friday price chops and I think this is only the beginning.

And while new services such as Netflix streaming HD to XBox 360s looks promising, you'd better have a pretty fast connection to get any kind of quality. I enjoy a 20MB connection, but I'd bet 95% of households out there are under 5MB.

You've got to get your HD somehow.

The problem is that you could also bet that 95% of homes don't have an HD-TV. You further assume that people have all the gear to reap the benefit of buying blue ray over DVD. If you don't have a newer receiver to take advantage of the HD audio features, well than that's not a reason to go BR. Furthermore, many people sit too far away from their HD set to reap the full benefit of HD. For them, DVD up conversion may be a great (and cheaper alternative). DVD's look great on a 1080p set with a good up converter.

I'll go on the record as saying that I don't want to have wasted money on yet another player (Yes I have an HD-DVD player too!). However, because I bought a PS3 (actually 2 of them), I don't have to worry about it becoming a brick (as there will always be games!). I don't want to see BR go the way of the do-do... but at current prices... I can't justify buying a BR of a movie that I already own when it comes out.

For the record... you'll probably find that the people who are fanatical about BR and HD video/audio are the same people that have 20mb connections

According to news sites, 25%+ of homes have hdtvs.

 

[Genx87]

Originally posted by: bigdog1218

Originally posted by: bananas
downloadable HD content will be the future.

Sure it is, in 10+ years. Internet download speeds are probably the only thing growing slower than Blu-ray sales. The average download speed in the US is 2.3mb/s, why would someone spend hundreds of dollars a year to upgrade their internet, but not pay $200 for a Blu-ray player?

I have seen my internet bandwidth go up 6 fold since 2002. I went from a 1.5Mbps to 10Mbps this last summer. Most cable companies seem to be nearing 5Mpbs as the entry level line with an easy upgrade to something higher for a nominal charge. The thing that may kill downloads are caps.

 

[JackBurton]

Originally posted by: SlickSnake
OMFG! You like NIN TO?!?!? We have something in COMMON?!?!? Lord have mercy!

It's a crazy world.

BTW... NIN looks GREAT on HD-DVD, TOO! <hides>

My friend has the HD-DVD version, but since both were the same price, there was no reason for me to get the HD-DVD version. Both versions look great though.

And since you have 2 HD-DVD players, you are well on your way to HD niche market status, too!

Yep. And that's the way I like it.

And the NEAR future of HD media is going to be HD movies on a memory stick of some sort, with no need for a player at all. You will be able to just plug it into the TV or HT receiver maybe via a common USB port and away you go in HD glory. No need for an add on player to break and you can easily transport a whole library of movies for traveling or playback an any device such as a laptop that has a proper USB implementation to handle the codec they will use.

That may be a possible future, but that is a distant future. For the next 5-10 years, it is Blu-ray. No doubt about it.

 

[DisgruntledVirus]

Originally posted by: JackBurton

Originally posted by: SlickSnake
OMFG! You like NIN TO?!?!? We have something in COMMON?!?!? Lord have mercy!

It's a crazy world.

BTW... NIN looks GREAT on HD-DVD, TOO! <hides>

My friend has the HD-DVD version, but since both were the same price, there was no reason for me to get the HD-DVD version. Both versions look great though.

And since you have 2 HD-DVD players, you are well on your way to HD niche market status, too!

Yep. And that's the way I like it.

And the NEAR future of HD media is going to be HD movies on a memory stick of some sort, with no need for a player at all. You will be able to just plug it into the TV or HT receiver maybe via a common USB port and away you go in HD glory. No need for an add on player to break and you can easily transport a whole library of movies for traveling or playback an any device such as a laptop that has a proper USB implementation to handle the codec they will use.

That may be a possible future, but that is a distant future. For the next 5-10 years, it is Blu-ray. No doubt about it.

Like it or not, Blu-Ray is here for the near-mid term. Will it last as long as DVD? Who knows, but it will be here for years.

What would have been better is if companies had said "hey this whole disc stuff is stupid, lets figure out a way for digital distribution that makes sense and works."

Discs just happen to be the easiest, most cost effective form of distribution currently that is realistically possible to reach most people. Yes online can be cheaper, but not many people have the ability to stream a 720p movie in realtime over a network.

 

[Arkaign]

Originally posted by: Genx87

Originally posted by: bigdog1218

Originally posted by: bananas
downloadable HD content will be the future.

Sure it is, in 10+ years. Internet download speeds are probably the only thing growing slower than Blu-ray sales. The average download speed in the US is 2.3mb/s, why would someone spend hundreds of dollars a year to upgrade their internet, but not pay $200 for a Blu-ray player?

I have seen my internet bandwidth go up 6 fold since 2002. I went from a 1.5Mbps to 10Mbps this last summer. Most cable companies seem to be nearing 5Mpbs as the entry level line with an easy upgrade to something higher for a nominal charge. The thing that may kill downloads are caps.

It sounds good, but in my city, which is supposed to be pretty high-tech, has crap for internet coverage. D/FW :

In some areas you can get ~7mbit or faster cable
In some areas you can get FIOS at the various speeds
In most areas you can get 768k or 1.5M DSL
In rare areas you can get 3.0M or higher DSL

In my apt. complex, which is fairly high-end (East side of Addison, $1100/mo, etc), you can ONLY get DSL from this horrible company that has $24.95 384(!!!!)k, $39.95 768k, or $59.95 1.5m .. sooo crappy.

I think WiMax coverage and ~100mbit nominal speeds with very high caps will be needed to make HD-on-demand full library even have a hope of replacing BD as the HD movie medium of choice. 8-10 years sounds about right, maybe longer.

 

[Genx87]

Dont know what city you live in. I live in the minneapolis area. We arent what I would call crazy hi tech around here. But the major cable companies(Charter, Comcast, and Medicom) are all offering 3-5 MBps on the low end and topping out at 15-20Mbps. Qwest is even getting into the act with fiber to the home with an introductory speed of 10Mbps topping out at 20Mbps.

 

[Arkaign]

I'm in the Dallas/Ft. Worth metro area, which is spectacularly uneven with availability/pricing/reliability of high-speed services.

Don't get me wrong, I wish ~100mbit internet was national and cheap, with no caps or very high caps. But the fact of the matter is that availability and speed is very uneven, with reliability and pricing even more wacky.

It's a decade out from being a legitimate contender as a HD Movie medium leader.

 

[Koing]

The prices are a lot cheaper now 2 for £30 or 3 for 2 deals. BUT what movie to get? I haven't actually bought a BR film yet. Casino Royal came with my PS3 package and it looks simply stunning on my dads 50" tv.

Koing

 

[yours truly]

Hey Koing,

I just watched Baraka, and was really impressed

Its not a movie as such, or a documentary, and its quite hard to quantify, but its art on film.

Not everyone is going to like it, but everyone should see it. The audio and visuals are really good

I just felt my 42' screen was way too small. I need to watch this at the cinema or Imax

Its a unique film but i recommend it

 

[marmasatt]

Originally posted by: Atomic Playboy
Bill Hunt, editor of Digital Bits, has posted a rebuttal. I've pasted it below because the link doesn't actually link to the day in question (10/30):







Mr. Harris actually then responded to the rebuttal the next day (for those who are interested...) Click

I don't have an interest either way because my side lost and I'm not bitter But he continues to make pretty good points.....

 

[Arkaign]

Originally posted by: marmasatt

Originally posted by: Atomic Playboy
Bill Hunt, editor of Digital Bits, has posted a rebuttal. I've pasted it below because the link doesn't actually link to the day in question (10/30):

Mr. Harris actually then responded to the rebuttal the next day (for those who are interested...) Click

I don't have an interest either way because my side lost and I'm not bitter But he continues to make pretty good points.....

^^ Wow. Bill Hunt is smoking meth laced with Acid. That is all.

 

[techwanabe]

The problem is that you could also bet that 95% of homes don't have an HD-TV.

According to news sites, 25%+ of homes have hdtvs.

I'm inclined to believe the 2nd figure (25% homes have HDTV) much more than the first (ie 5%).

Lets face it, I remember when I lived in Sacramento or other cities and I'd drive thru the poor neighborhoods occasionally on my way somewhere. You'd see a large (for the times) color TV in so many living room windows, not to mention a nice car - but the house is a shack. I casually noticed these days the same thing in the evenings when I drive or walk by houses in the neighborhoods around Syracuse suburbs. Yep, you see a large screen TV (now really big LCD's) in the living room. My guess is many of those are HDTV (either 720P or 1080). And the older generation are right there too. I went trick or treating with my daughter and her house is in a predominantly older (retired) neighborhood. The house two houses down from my ex had a HUGE LCD TV and they guy living there must be late 60's or 70's. I see huge LCD's glowing in many living rooms thru the window all over the place. This seems to be a major item people buy before other toys in American society.

So yeah, 25% of house holds and growing pretty quickly I wouldn't be surprised. Big nice TV's always seem to be high on peoples buy list.