BLS officials reject conspiracy theories on jobs report

shira

Diamond Member
Jan 12, 2005
9,500
6
81
Another right-wing talking-point debunked. But what do you think the odds are that are ATPN's hard-core wing-nuts will stop claiming that the figures were manipulated?

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/officials-reject-conspiracies-unemployment-rate-070150849.html

WASHINGTON — When conspiracists suggested Friday that the Obama administration had engineered a sharp drop in unemployment to aid President Barack Obama's re-election, the response was swift.

Career government officials, economists and even some Mitt Romney supporters issued a collective sigh.

The staffers who compute the U.S. unemployment rate work in an agency of the Labor Department. Officials who have overseen the work say it's prepared under tight security with no White House input or supervision.

"To think that these numbers could be manipulated. ... It's impossible to do it and get away with it," said Keith Hall, a former commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the agency that calculates the unemployment rate.

"These numbers are very trustworthy," said Hall, who was appointed by President George W. Bush and whose four-year term ended in January.

The figures that produce the unemployment rate are crunched by several dozen people at the bureau. The only BLS employee appointed by the White House is the commissioner, who operates independently of the White House.

The job is now vacant but is being handled by Acting Commissioner John Galvin, who has worked at the BLS for 34 years.


Yet conspiracy theorists came out in force Friday after the government reported a sudden drop in unemployment a month before Election Day — to 7.8 percent for September from 8.1 percent in August.

Their message: The Obama administration would do anything to ensure a November victory, including manipulating unemployment data. Labor Department officials, joined by Democrats and some Republicans, called the charges implausible.

That didn't stop the chatter. The allegations were a measure of how politicized the monthly unemployment report has become near the end of a campaign that's focused on the economy and jobs.

The conspiracy erupted after former General Electric CEO Jack Welch, a Republican, tweeted his skepticism five minutes after the BLS announced the unemployment rate at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time.

"Unbelievable jobs numbers..these Chicago guys will do anything..can't debate so change numbers," Welch tweeted, referring to the site of the Obama campaign headquarters.

The drop in unemployment was announced two days after Obama's lackluster performance in his first debate with Romney.

Republican Rep. Allen West of Florida soon announced via Facebook that he agreed with Welch.

"Somehow by manipulation of data we are all of a sudden below 8 percent unemployment, a month from the presidential election," West wrote. "This is Orwellian to say the least."

The Obama administration was forced to defend Labor's statisticians and economists against accusations that came without supporting evidence.

"No serious person ... would make claims like that," said Alan Krueger, chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.

The monthly jobs report is prepared with raw data collected by Census workers. The workers interview Americans in about 60,000 households or visit them door-to-door.

People are asked whether they're employed and, if so, whether their jobs are full or part time. The Census workers gather other information about the respondents' education, age and gender and ask whether they're self-employed.

Most of the interviews are done in the week that includes the 19th day of the month. The resulting pile of data is transferred securely by Census to BLS about a week before the jobs report is due.

The office suites where the report is prepared and compiled goes on lockdown. Employees can't access the area without a hard pass. Staffers working on a paper copy of the report are expected to keep it under lock and key if they aren't at their desk — even when they go to lunch.

The security isn't just about keeping the data free of political pressure. The unemployment figures, if leaked early, could improperly move financial markets.

Tom Nardone, a 36-year veteran of the BLS, oversees the report's preparation. The goal, Nardone said, is to make the report as accurate and "apolitical" as possible.

"We strive to be like Joe Friday, just presenting the facts," he said.


A draft of the report is completed by early Wednesday before the Friday when it's released. Several groups of staffers review it. That Wednesday is usually the earliest that the commissioner of the BLS gets involved.

On Thursday afternoon, the report is sent to the White House's Council of Economic Advisors. Krueger provides a copy to the president.

Hilda Solis, Obama's labor secretary, doesn't see the report until around 8 a.m. Friday, a half-hour before its public release.

A week later, Labor releases the raw data on its website. Many academics use the data, which is stripped of all identifying information, for their own research.

The commissioner is the BLS' only political appointee. And even he or she operates independently of the presidential administration. The Obama administration has selected a new commissioner: Erica Groshen, a vice president at the New York Federal Reserve. She has yet to be approved by the Senate.

On Friday, Romney refrained from discrediting the government data. But plenty of conservatives did that work for him.

Conn Carroll, an editorial writer at the Washington Examiner, tweeted: "I don't think BLS cooked numbers. I think a bunch of Dems lied about getting jobs. That would have same effect."

Rick Manning, communications director of Americans for Limited Government and a former public affairs chief of staff at the Labor Department, said "anyone who takes this unemployment report serious is either naive or a paid Obama campaign adviser."

Rep. Paul Broun, a Georgia Republican, weighed in with a statement saying the report "raises questions for me, and frankly it should be raising eyebrows for people across the country."

Conspiracy theories are nothing new for Obama. He has been dogged by discredited claims that he wasn't born in this country and that he is Muslim.

On Friday, one leading Republican sided with Obama's team in rejecting the latest accusations.

"Stop with the dumb conspiracy theories. Good grief," Tony Fratto, a strategist who was a top communications official in the Bush White House, tweeted.
 

umbrella39

Lifer
Jun 11, 2004
13,816
1,126
126
This will never quiet people who insulate themselves in an alternate reality. They just know they are right and that the liberal media, Obama, and the BLS are in on a grand conspiracy.
 

trenchfoot

Lifer
Aug 5, 2000
15,735
8,313
136
Funny how things look through Rove colored glasses. If the numbers look bad for Obama, then of course the numbers are accurate. The Repubs have been pointing to these jobs stats from the same origin for the longest time to make their case even if they've showed gradual improvements. BUT, if the numbers just so happen to look good at the moment, well, all of a sudden it's a conspiracy cooked up by the Obama admin. lol

The numbers have been generally trending toward a recovery and these new numbers is just another stat in the big picture. It could just as easily go the other way next month. Then the Repubs are going to all of a sudden look at those numbers as faithfully accurate....again.
 

Anarchist420

Diamond Member
Feb 13, 2010
8,645
0
76
www.facebook.com
The job conspiracy theory against Obama is truly one I take with a micrograin of salt... The president is a wreckless loon like myself, but he is the most pro-market president since Reagan. It's good to evade creditors and/or debtors sometimes... I need to convince my dad of that so he can invest in me like with a blog or whatever, unless he wants to pay more taxes.
 

Matt1970

Lifer
Mar 19, 2007
12,320
3
0
Something just doesn't add for a lot of people. We have added more jobs in previous months than we did in September and the rate never dropped .3% points.
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,685
136
Something just doesn't add for a lot of people. We have added more jobs in previous months than we did in September and the rate never dropped .3% points.

So, if you don't understand, it must be a Conspiracy!

Out there on the Right, in their alternate reality, anything they don't understand is obviously a Liberal conspiracy. Even the failures of their own policies are Liberal conspiracies. Even when they do understand but don't like it, it's a Liberal Conspiracy. In that case, they'll simply say they don't understand why Liberals are conspiring against them.

That's because they've never been wrong, just cheated by another Liberal conspiracy.
 

her209

No Lifer
Oct 11, 2000
56,336
11
0
I like how Obama decided to manipulate the jobs number now and not 6 months or 12 months ago.
 

Jadow

Diamond Member
Feb 12, 2003
5,962
2
0
yeah lots of part timers and people giving up will lower the unemployment rate.
 

Matt1970

Lifer
Mar 19, 2007
12,320
3
0
So, if you don't understand, it must be a Conspiracy!

Out there on the Right, in their alternate reality, anything they don't understand is obviously a Liberal conspiracy. Even the failures of their own policies are Liberal conspiracies. Even when they do understand but don't like it, it's a Liberal Conspiracy. In that case, they'll simply say they don't understand why Liberals are conspiring against them.

That's because they've never been wrong, just cheated by another Liberal conspiracy.

Do you ever give it a rest?
 

Engineer

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
39,230
701
126
Something just doesn't add for a lot of people. We have added more jobs in previous months than we did in September and the rate never dropped .3% points.

Revisions to previous months to much higher numbers maybe?
 

DCal430

Diamond Member
Feb 12, 2011
6,020
9
81
If anyone questions the numbers from the BLS, the Census Bureau publishes all of the raw data from the Current Population Survey, which is used to calculate unemployment each month.

You can go here and view the raw data and see the numbers used for your self. They have August available already:

http://dataferrett.census.gov/run.html

The raw data for September survey isn't up yet, but will be soon.
 
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her209

No Lifer
Oct 11, 2000
56,336
11
0
If anyone questions the numbers from the BLS, the Census Bureau publishes all of the raw data from the Current Population Survey, which is used to calculate unemployment each month.

You can go here and view the raw data and see the numbers used for your self. They have August available already:

http://dataferrett.census.gov/run.html

The raw data for September survey isn't up yet, but will be soon.

Obama is busy manipulating the raw numbers too. His manipulation powers are limitless.
 

umbrella39

Lifer
Jun 11, 2004
13,816
1,126
126
Something just doesn't add for a lot of people. We have added more jobs in previous months than we did in September and the rate never dropped .3% points.

It doesn't add up because you haven't worked at the BLS for 30 plus years and no matter how many times we suggest people read up on the BLS website how the number get calculated I doubt anyone ever does. There was no fudging then and there is no fudging now. The thought that the numbers could be manipulated show people's inability to accept reality. They is what they is.
 
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blackangst1

Lifer
Feb 23, 2005
22,902
2,359
126
I, for one, never bought into the conspiracy theory myself, but I thought it was common knowledge the BLS numbers and real unemployment we always different, with BLS numbers being lower? Geez its been that way for decades.

Good news for the country? Yes. Good news for Obama? Yes. Conspiracy? No.
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,685
136
Do you ever give it a rest?

Nah- I'm one of the Ebil Libruhls conspiring against you, remember?

It's a vast, vast conspiracy to take away your freedumbs & to make the baby Jesus cry, too. We use Islamofascist Commie Kenyan voodoo time warp mind control of the worst sort in an attempt to get you to look at yourself & what you believe, to question your faith in the sacred Free Market! and the poor persecuted Job Creators! from whom all Libertopian goodness flows.

We don't think that corporations are people, we think that every American citizen should have the unfettered right to vote, a truly horrifying prospect for all Righties, and that all Americans should be able to get a decent paying job, no matter what that does to the profit margins of the financial elite.

Worst of all, we don't think that greed is a virtue, or that derision towards the least fortunate among us is occupying the moral high ground, either.
 

her209

No Lifer
Oct 11, 2000
56,336
11
0
Oh yes they must be editing the responses to get to their predetermined unemployment number

Well duh. How else are you going to make your numbers add up to the outcome you've predetermined. Don't you know anything about fudging data?
 

blankslate

Diamond Member
Jun 16, 2008
8,794
568
126
Of course all the conspirators are denying the conspiracy.

Because it's easier to have a large group involved in a conspiracy without anyone talking than people want to believe after all.

It was extremely clever of them to also artificially keep it high until just the right time to drop it by an amazing .3 percentage points when it would most benefit Barack "Hussein" Obama doncha know...
 

Rainsford

Lifer
Apr 25, 2001
17,515
0
0
Something just doesn't add for a lot of people. We have added more jobs in previous months than we did in September and the rate never dropped .3% points.

The numbers aren't measured the same way. The "jobs added" number most people use (total nonfarm payroll) doesn't seem to include a number of types of workers like (obviously) farm workers or the self-employed. The employment rate is calculated by taking the TOTAL number of employed people and dividing it by the size of the labor force. This number is calculated based on household surveys. The growth in jobs seems to usually reference the nonfarm jobs number as reported by establishment surveys. In September the labor force was 155,063,000, the total nonfarm jobs were 133,500,000 and the total employment (used in the unemployment calculations) was 142,974,000. While nonfarm jobs only went up by 114,000 since August, total employment went up by 873,000. If the numbers "just don't add up" it's because people are comparing two different measurements.

And I don't want to point out the obvious, but this information is freely available to anyone who genuinely wants to understand the numbers. If "a lot of people" don't understand the data (as was the case with me) they could easily look it up and learn something.
 

mshan

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2004
7,868
0
71
If anyone wants to cry conspiracy, then perhaps they should be claiming that the August BLS top line number was artificially depressed to provide political cover for the Federal Reserve's QE Infinity program recently announced:
"We’re not saying a potential revision would be enough of a reason for the Fed to hold back on unleashing another round of stimulus. But considering the historical trends, it may be something Bernanke & Co. consider when debating what to do next."

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/201...-report-isnt-as-bad-as-it-looks/?mod=yahoo_hs



Fox and Rush never pushed this talking point aggressively, so it doesn't seem to have gained same traction as Jack Welch's tweet.

And there is also an ongoing investigation of GE Capital and it's involvement in subprime / financial crisis (quick google search -> http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/06/1141040/-Welch-Smears-Obama-To-Cover-Up-GE-s-Role-In-Subprime-Crisis; IIRC, Warren Buffett had to stabilize GE in 2008 with $3 billion injection of capital then (http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/09/news/companies/colvin_ge.fortune/index.htm), which Romney might make conveniently go away, so in Welch's case (his legacy?), his motivation may be more than just his own taxes, estate taxes, idealogy, or politics...


- First draft of the September BLS report was completed Wednesday afternoon, before presidential debate took place.

- And again, IIRC, unemployment rate from previous months is not revised after the fact; topline jobs numbers are. So perhaps the last few months were actually and always closer to 8% than initially thought.

- And if actual calculated unemployment rate this month was 7.849%, it is rounded to 7.8%, where if the actual number were 7.851%, it would have been rounded up to 7.9%.

Rise from 8.2% to 8.3% over summer was same thing (rounded up one month, rounded down others; actual change probably less than headline numbers indicate).

BLS jobs for October is going to be released Friday before election, so setting baseline so high for continued improvement (7.7% or 7.6%) also would seem self-defeating for Obama campaign. Narrative then becomes unemployment rate ticked up to 7.9%, 8%, or even above 8%, whether real or not (statistical noise from incomplete data, or real if good news produces tremendous surge of previously discouraged workers reentering potential workforce). Even if you had say 250k jobs created in October, if unemployment rate ticks up, that seems to be number that would resonate most with voters because it comes across as more meaningful to them (even if topline number were 400k, don't know how that translates for Main Street America if they still can't find a good job).
 
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