[ Bloomberg ] AMD Facing Bleak Future

[tential]

I agree with you, but what happens when with the R&D you did its sufficient to make money?

I mean if AMD were at the toes of intel, both companies will need to invest in R&D in order to get an advantage from the other, the downside is the "race to the bottom" as you said, but do you think intel invest all that they can in R&D or just the necessary to stay on top?

Publicly traded company...
If you want to see the vast amounts of money Intel spends on it's R&D it's public knowledge...

AMD Is around 1.2 Billion R&D
(Sources since I was too lazy to actually pull up their Annual Earnings Reports).
http://www.icinsights.com/news/bulletins/Top-10-Semiconductor-RD-Leaders-Ranked-For-2013-/
http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...icro-devices-inc-is-still-a-terrible-bus.aspx

 

[Abwx]

Publicly traded company...
If you want to see the vast amounts of money Intel spends on it's R&D it's public knowledge...

AMD Is around 1.2 Billion R&D
(Sources since I was too lazy to actually pull up their Annual Earnings Reports).
http://www.icinsights.com/news/bulletins/Top-10-Semiconductor-RD-Leaders-Ranked-For-2013-/
http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...icro-devices-inc-is-still-a-terrible-bus.aspx

Undoubtly that intel is pouring much more money in RD but thoses figures cant be compared as such, there s a vast chunk that goes in process RD at intel, as well as other activities such as SSDs and other wifi chips.

 

[positivedoppler]

They recently talked about paying down the debt with excess money over 1 billion for 2015 to alleviate the debt interest payment so we shall see.

 

[tential]

Undoubtly that intel is pouring much more money in RD but thoses figures cant be compared as such, there s a vast chunk that goes in process RD at intel, as well as other activities such as SSDs and other wifi chips.

Ya you're right. AMD and Intel spend the same on CPU+GPU R&D for sure and the other 8 Billion Intel spend is on Wifi and SSD development.
Next gen Wifi from Intel will literally put you inside the internet.
/sarcasm

 

[Abwx]

Ya you're right. AMD and Intel spend the same on CPU+GPU R&D for sure and the other 8 Billion Intel spend is on Wifi and SSD development.
Next gen Wifi from Intel will literally put you inside the internet.
/sarcasm

You are somewhat cluless, how much for process RD.?.

For this kind of RD there s huge expenses in expensive gear, for the record TSMC has only 4500 RD enginers but it cost 450k$/year/enginer, and be sure that it s not the salaries that get thoses numbers inflated, so how much for Intel.?.

 

[dontsh00tmesanta]

PSH nah

 

[AtenRa]

Ya you're right. AMD and Intel spend the same on CPU+GPU R&D for sure and the other 8 Billion Intel spend is on Wifi and SSD development.
Next gen Wifi from Intel will literally put you inside the internet.
/sarcasm

PCCG

PC Client Group:
Delivering platforms designed for the notebook (including Ultrabook™ devices and 2 in 1 systems) and the desktop (including
all-in-ones and high-end enthusiast PCs); wireless and wired connectivity products; as well as home gateway and set-top box components.

DCG

Data Center Group
: Delivering platforms designed for the server, workstation, networking and storage computing market segments.

Internet of Things Group
: Delivering platforms designed for embedded market segments including retail, transportation, industrial, and buildings
and home, along with a broad range of other market segments.
•
Mobile and Communications Group
: Delivering platforms designed for the tablet and smartphone market segments; and mobile communications
components such as baseband processors, radio frequency transceivers, Wi-Fi, Bluetooth*, global navigation satellite systems, and power
management chips.

Software and services operating segments
consists of the following:
◦
McAfee: A wholly owned subsidiary delivering software products for endpoint security, network and content security, risk and compliance, and
consumer and mobile security.
◦
Software and Services Group: Delivering software products and services that promote Intel architecture as the platform of choice for software
development

 

[witeken]

Or if you take the slide from this year:

 

[Abwx]

Some bad news for the doomers and gloomers...

Globalfoundries has successfully obtained 14nm chip orders from AMD, previously the parent company of the foundry, said the sources. AMD also has 20nm and 28nm chips made at Globalfoundries

http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20141210PD214.html

AMD is set to launch x86-based Nolan and ARM-based Amur tablet processors in the second half of 2015. The Nolan processors will feature an interface that is compatible with both ARM and x86-based products.
The Amur processors will feature ARM's Cortex A57 architecture and will support both Android and Linux operating systems

http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20141211PD204.html

 

[Sweepr]

http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20141211PD204.html

So according to you (based on a DigiTimes rumour) they are hiding this new x86 chip in their latest roadmap?

 

[Abwx]

So according to you (based on a DigiTimes rumour) they are hiding this new x86 chip in their latest roadmap?

Carrizo shedule was announced last month, for a H1 2015 product that s quite a last moment announcement, Skybridge, wich is the chip pointed in Digitimes link, is sheduled apparently later, so where would be the surprise.?

 

[Sweepr]

Carrizo shedule was announced last month, for a H1 2015 product that s quite a last moment announcement, Skybridge, wich is the chip pointed in Digitimes link, is sheduled apparently later, so where would be the surprise.?

DigiTimes first mentioned Amur/Nolan back in early October and the 2014/2015 mobility roadmap was unveiled in late November. They could have announced Amur/Nolan by then.

 

[cytg111]

So according to you (based on a DigiTimes rumour) they are hiding this new x86 chip in their latest roadmap?
http://images.anandtech.com/doci/8742/Mobility Roadmap_575px.png

- I am an old man with possibly impaired deduction skills however according to him -> according to the source provided - nothing more nothing less. It sounds to me like you are inferring facts from non existent data.

As I see it you have two data sets each with their own implications, may i direct attention to bayesian inference ; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_inference

In statistics, Bayesian inference is a method of inference in which Bayes' rule is used to update the probability estimate for a hypothesis as additional evidence is acquired

Now measure the height of each pile of evidence and assign a "probability estimate", keyword being "probability". There is no real absolutes until after the fact (and even then).

 

[Abwx]

DigiTimes first mentioned Amur/Nolan back in early October and the 2014/2015 mobility roadmap was unveiled in late November. They could have announced Amur/Nolan by then.

The roadmap above seems to be a six months shedule in 2015, Excavator was well advanced when they released Kaveri and Carrizo-L is an updated Beema that doesnt need as much design means as Skybridge, besides they have absolutely no interest in trying to hurry up to release Skybridges before Intel release Cherrytrail, quite the contrary.

 

[Spungo]

AMD will be gone within 5 years. I am predicting it now.

I'm starting to think AMD is actually a front for organized crime. How does the company still exist after years of losses? If you assume the company is a front for some international heroin smuggling organization, it suddenly makes sense

I've said it before and I'll say it again - AMD needs to team up with Nvidia and Microsoft to really push GPGPU. Things compiled with Visual Studio should be able to use the video card for math just as easily as they can use the speakers for sound. This is AMD's only chance of surviving.

 

[III-V]

You cannot be serious here...

All it does it paint an inaccurate real-world picture of what your hardware can do. When your 3DMark score is 90% higher with a second card but you only get 40% more FPS, it is absolutely NOT representative of actual performance.

Next, you are going to say throughput is the end all be all of performance too? LOL

Typically scaling is around ~90% for a second GPU, on the off chance that it actually works.

 

[Spungo]

They recently talked about paying down the debt with excess money over 1 billion for 2015 to alleviate the debt interest payment so we shall see.

Debt doesn't matter. Profit/loss matters, and it looks like AMD is not doing too well on that front.
https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:AMD&fstype=ii&ei=NvaJVOGyONCasgfOhYDwAQ
I'll explain what some of these mean in general terms.

Capital Expenditures:
At a minimum, capex should cover the depreciation. For example, suppose the roof on your house will last 10 years and it cost $1000. That means the roof depreciates at a rate of $100/year. On your own personal balance sheet, you would need to budget for $100/year of capex just to keep the roof in its current condition. If you were building on your house and making it better, your capex would be greater than the depreciation. AMD's capex is consistently less than depreciation. That's not good.

Cash from operating activities:
This is the current cost of running the business without including capital expenditures. For your house, cash from operating activities includes expenses like heat and electricity, but it does not include money set aside for fixing the roof in the future. AMD's cash from operating activities is often negative, meaning the company loses money just by keeping the lights on. It gets even more negative if they want to fix the roof.

Net income:
This income includes depreciation. This is how much money is left after paying to keep the lights on and budgeting for future roof repairs. It does not include capex. AMD's net income has been negative for the last 2.75 years.

They can try paying down debt, but that money must come from somewhere. They would need to cut back on capex or start selling company assets.

 

[pw257008]

Debt doesn't matter. Profit/loss matters, and it looks like AMD is not doing too well on that front.
https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:AMD&fstype=ii&ei=NvaJVOGyONCasgfOhYDwAQ
I'll explain what some of these mean in general terms.

Capital Expenditures:
At a minimum, capex should cover the depreciation. For example, suppose the roof on your house will last 10 years and it cost $1000. That means the roof depreciates at a rate of $100/year. On your own personal balance sheet, you would need to budget for $100/year of capex just to keep the roof in its current condition. If you were building on your house and making it better, your capex would be greater than the depreciation. AMD's capex is consistently less than depreciation. That's not good.

Cash from operating activities:
This is the current cost of running the business without including capital expenditures. For your house, cash from operating activities includes expenses like heat and electricity, but it does not include money set aside for fixing the roof in the future. AMD's cash from operating activities is often negative, meaning the company loses money just by keeping the lights on. It gets even more negative if they want to fix the roof.

Net income:
This income includes depreciation. This is how much money is left after paying to keep the lights on and budgeting for future roof repairs. It does not include capex. AMD's net income has been negative for the last 2.75 years.

They can try paying down debt, but that money must come from somewhere. They would need to cut back on capex or start selling company assets.

If AMD has cash reserves, then cash is the asset they are "selling" at a rate of $1/$1 to pay down the debt. I assume that cash is not accruing interest at a rate equal to or greater than the interest they pay on debt, so they would be saving money by shedding an asset that is performing worse than its opportunity cost (in this case, a reduction in debt). Of course, cash provides security, so the strategy does involve risk, but AMD won't be shedding an asset that is outperforming the loss they're taking on their debt, so from a risk neutral point of view, it's a good call. Risk neutral might not be the optimal way to approach the world, of course.

Now, there's also other uses for the money, such as R&D, which may or may not end up as better uses (determined by whether the ROI is higher than the interest on the debt).

 

[tential]

Some bad news for the doomers and gloomers...



http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20141210PD214.html



http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20141211PD204.html

I have no doom and gloom for amd. The largest issue for amd has always been management. Even with inferior products many companies thrive. Amd can't thrive with superior products let alone inferior. So hopefully under new management they can do well.

 

[ShintaiDK]

I have no doom and gloom for amd. The largest issue for amd has always been management. Even with inferior products many companies thrive. Amd can't thrive with superior products let alone inferior. So hopefully under new management they can do well.

It seems to be deeply entrenched. 10 years now with shifting leadership and still same same.

 

[tential]

It seems to be deeply entrenched. 10 years now with shifting leadership and still same same.

Its a gut feeling I have that's it.
Not based off any facts at all just so you know. I just think by 2016, things will be looking better for amd than they do today.

 

[Dribble]

Its a gut feeling I have that's it.
Not based off any facts at all just so you know. I just think by 2016, things will be looking better for amd than they do today.

Gut feelings, happy thoughts and positive words of encouragement on tech forums do not pay the bills.

 

[Headfoot]

Why would you think this would be good for anybody? You don't merge two failing companies and get a success. Add that to the completely different ideologies of the two companies, along with the knowledge that nobody who works at AMD lives anywhere near the ROK and you get what?


A bad idea, thats what. Horrible, even.

If you knew what an asset sale was, or what the effect acquiring the employees and not the business is, you wouldn't make this comment.

 

[MiddleOfTheRoad]

So according to you (based on a DigiTimes rumour) they are hiding this new x86 chip in their latest roadmap?

That looks like an outdated roadmap that was issued when Rory Read was running the company. AMD has delayed their investor meeting until 2015 so Lisa Su can annouce a different strategy/product plan. Not sure which direction she is planning, but I doubt the roadmap will look like that. We already know about Zen/K12 which isn't even mentioned on that particular roadmap.

 

[Sweepr]

That looks like an outdated roadmap that was issued when Rory Read was running the company. AMD has delayed their investor meeting until 2015 so Lisa Su can annouce a different strategy/product plan. Not sure which direction she is planning, but I doubt the roadmap will look like that. We already know about Zen/K12 which isn't even mentioned on that particular roadmap.

K12/Zen is 2016 stuff, that's a 2014/2015 roadmap. If DigiTimes knows 20nm Amur/Nolan since October and it's actually a real product then it's safe to assume that it's in AMD's plans for quite some time. Yet for some reason they didn't announce these two new important products 3 weeks ago. Also note that in the first rumour back in October DigiTimes talked about a Q3-2015 launch, now it's a more vague H2-2015 launch.