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Discussion Black Swan Potential: COVID19, 2020 Election, GOP, & Electoral College

Paratus

Paratus

Lifer
BLACK SWAN: an unpredictable or unforeseen event, typically one with extreme consequences.

So it turns out without a constitutional amendment congress and the president can’t prevent the presidents current term from ending in January of 2021. If they cancel the election ostensibly due to COVID19 he’s still out.

BUT....

As we all know the electoral college is how the president is actually chosen and the electors are chosen by the states. Constitutionally and legally those electors do not have to be chosen based on the state election popular vote. They can be appointed by the state legislature of which 28 states and 294 electoral college votes are controlled by the GOP

Trump could simply cite COVID19 and ask those states to appoint electors to elect him to “protect the public”.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics...-constitution-state-electors-coronavirus.html
 
Still a long time before the election. Possibility that Coronavirus is a distant memory by July, and all but forgotten in November as something else dominates the news cycle.
 
Wouldn't this also depend on how electing EC delegation is authorized in each state? If assigning delegates by popular vote is codified in state Constitution, for instance, the state legislature might not have the authority to override without amendment.
 
GoodRevrnd said:
Wouldn't this also depend on how electing EC delegation is authorized in each state? If assigning delegates by popular vote is codified in state Constitution, for instance, the state legislature might not have the authority to override without amendment.
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That’s a good point, but as we’ve seen in Wisconsin, North Carolina and others state GOP legislators won’t hesitate to manipulate state law for partisan ends.


We’d probably any have to look state by state to see what the real risk is.
 
Moonbeam said:
What if Trump catches the virus and dies?
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I'm of the opinion that he's already caught it. There is a high probability that Ivanka either has it, or caught it from the Australian Home Minister Dutton, who has tested positive. And I think, in that sieve of all possibilities and as luck would have it, Trump may not have become symptomatic. He's just a carrier of the latest plague virus -- which would seem to come with the territory of being Satan's Spawn.

That Thing -- the virus -- is extremely contagious. How could Ivanka not have it, after being all warm and chummy with Dutton? Did he give it to her? Or did he catch it from her? How many trips to China has she made in the last two or three months?

If I catch that bug, I could f***ing die. But now that we're suddenly in a panic about COVID-19, I don't think the panic we've had for three years is sufficiently appropriate for the Real Virus in the Oval Office.

Whether or not they find a vaccine in less than 18 months, I think they should rename the virus COVFEFE-19. Or -- just call it the Trump Virus.

It's scary enough that it's infected people on Capitol Hill. Took over a whole neighborhood in New Rochelle. A person could be walking down a street, crossing a patch of sidewalk where someone had stood 40 seconds earlier when they sneezed. The latter person might be 50 feet away in a brisk walk, and the aerosol of their sneeze would infect the second person to cross over that patch of sidewalk.

I'd say -- y'all should contact your Registrar of Voters/Elections and get mail-in ballots. Settle your affairs if you're my age, and only go out in public when it rains . . . .
 
BonzaiDuck said:
I'm of the opinion that he's already caught it. There is a high probability that Ivanka either has it, or caught it from the Australian Home Minister Dutton, who has tested positive. And I think, in that sieve of all possibilities and as luck would have it, Trump may not have become symptomatic. He's just a carrier of the latest plague virus -- which would seem to come with the territory of being Satan's Spawn.

That Thing -- the virus -- is extremely contagious. How could Ivanka not have it, after being all warm and chummy with Dutton? Did he give it to her? Or did he catch it from her? How many trips to China has she made in the last two or three months?

If I catch that bug, I could f***ing die. But now that we're suddenly in a panic about COVID-19, I don't think the panic we've had for three years is sufficiently appropriate for the Real Virus in the Oval Office.

Whether or not they find a vaccine in less than 18 months, I think they should rename the virus COVFEFE-19. Or -- just call it the Trump Virus.

It's scary enough that it's infected people on Capitol Hill. Took over a whole neighborhood in New Rochelle. A person could be walking down a street, crossing a patch of sidewalk where someone had stood 40 seconds earlier when they sneezed. The latter person might be 50 feet away in a brisk walk, and the aerosol of their sneeze would infect the second person to cross over that patch of sidewalk.

I'd say -- y'all should contact your Registrar of Voters/Elections and get mail-in ballots. Settle your affairs if you're my age, and only go out in public when it rains . . . .
Click to expand...
I hope you guys have already stopped smoking and be stuffing yourself with 100umg vitamin D supps daily...
 
UNCjigga said:
Still a long time before the election. Possibility that Coronavirus is a distant memory by July, and all but forgotten in November as something else dominates the news cycle.
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Hopefully it is, but at that point Trump will take credit for his excellent handling of the crisis (so much better than Swine Flu!) and possibly sail into reelection because now he'll have been tested, and, well, people are morons.
 
Won't happen. Elections are about more than the Presidency. No election? No Reps in Congress. No Senators to fill expired terms. State & local govts are the same.
 
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