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Bitcoin mining, the inevitable crash, and shorting the stock

B

BoomSlangx

Member
Hey,

I was just thinking, at some stage fairly soon, the entire ass end is gonna fall out of the Bitmining industry, those 10's or hundreds of thousands of 500 to 1500 sollar graphics cards going 100% all day long every day can't last much longer. At some stage, it's gonna collapse on a massive scale, and ALL of those lovely beautiful 1080,s 1080 ti's, 1070'sm Vegas etc are gonna absolutely bomBARD the market with people trying to make back at least SOME of the money by Roi... Anyone thought about Short selling?

Like betting against Bitmining, betting against it to fail... I mean, that's what that movie the BigShort was about i think, i didn't see it, but it was this EXACT situation, SUP Hyper inflation in house prices due to massive demand and manufactured hyper inflated prices, and in the end, there wasn't enough money coming in by like 15000 % to cover the costs of the purchases.. so it all collapsed and narly wreckd the entire world.

It's gonna happen again, remember you heard it here first! Anyone want to maybe delve into the possibilities, and maybe get some info from a broker on how we can bet against the market?

Im willing to bet, if i put 1000 dollars against it now, for it to come short (lose value) within 6 months i'll have turned it into 5000... whos in? 🙂
 
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For the foreseeable future I think it's more likely that there will be an upgrade wave.

I haven't researched this in a while but can you even make money mining with a GPU? I know for btc everybody uses ASICs.
 
Charmonium said:
For the foreseeable future I think it's more likely that there will be an upgrade wave.

I haven't researched this in a while but can you even make money mining with a GPU? I know for btc everybody uses ASICs.
Click to expand...
You can make money with a GPU yes, just not alot. But if you have about 5 or more GPU's, you can make quite alot, the only problem is it'll take you a year or 18 months to make back your hardware costs before you actually start making any money.

Bastards!
I don't think there'lll be an upgrade wave. What'll happen is they'll buy the newest cards also, and just add those on.
The only reason they aren't buying even more cards, is NOT because they don't have the money, or they can't fit it, it's because they can't get them for under 1000 bucks. So when the new machines come out, they'll buy a a few of those AND keep the current ones to make even more profit... ANIMALS. I hate them.
 
Charmonium said:
For the foreseeable future I think it's more likely that there will be an upgrade wave.


I haven't researched this in a while but can you even make money mining with a GPU? I know for btc everybody uses ASICs.
Click to expand...

What happened to all the idiots last August? i saw a bunch of "I'll be buying a GFX card soon but the prices are insane"> and EVERYONE was like "Don't worry, it's dying down, it'll be over soon" as if they knew what they were talking about...

Funny you don't see them on there again now backing up their "Don't worry".
i mean, all i want is an RX 570, a card that can barely run 1080p games at 30 fps at high settings (games that are 2 - 5 years old), and instead of paying the 189 it's supposed to be, i have to pay 415 for it, MORE than double... it's pathetic.

Im gonna sell this 1080 and just buy 2 680's for SLI or something. Screw the bastards

http://steamcommunity.com/discussions/forum/12/2579854400748125646/
 
I'm hoping they will dump the old cards but yeah they may keep em. That's what I'd do myself...

I'm mining ethereum but only have 2 cards because can't find any for under a grand, it's ridiculous. Wish they would just suck it up, and produce more. But they don't want to risk crypto crashing and then end up with too many cards nobody wants. Everybody says a big crash is coming, but I wonder if it's just false speculation to scare people.

You can sit on Amazon etc and hit refresh all day and get lucky but nobody ain't got time for that.
 
I hear there's money to be made on some coins. I'm doing FoldingCoin, which may not get as much money as some, but it does good, useful work. Then you can join the CureCoin team for a little more money, or the AnandTech team (198) for more fun. 😉
 
Shorting a bubble is the quickest way to the poor house. Unless you have like infinite funds, you'll be squeezed to the pulp. There is saying "Market can stay irrational for longer than you can remain solvent. Which is very true. People buying the bubble can only lose at max 100%. But can you afford to lose 200%? How about 500%? Or 1,000%? Some of the coins went up more than 10,000% last year. When you short, your potential max profit is 100% while your potential max loss is unlimited. Those are terrible odds. You'll get margin call way before you see the eventual crash.
 
ponyo said:
Shorting a bubble is the quickest way to the poor house. Unless you have like infinite funds, you'll be squeezed to the pulp. There is saying "Market can stay irrational for longer than you can remain solvent. Which is very true. People buying the bubble can only lose at max 100%. But can you afford to lose 200%? How about 500%? Or 1,000%? Some of the coins went up more than 10,000% last year. When you short, your potential max profit is 100% while your potential max loss is unlimited. Those are terrible odds. You'll get margin call way before you see the eventual crash.
Click to expand...

Exactly. Coins are currently in a wildly speculative bubble, but without a Gray's Sports Almanac 1950-2000 from old-Biff you have no way to know exactly when it will pop.

I don't fool myself into thinking I can time the market. I avoid needing to, by buying and holding index funds for decades. The closest I come to timing is buying more shares during a dip, since I'd be investing that money anyway and 10 years later it won't hurt me much if I failed to guess the best time to buy.
 
I don't think it's really going to "Crash" (end with finality). I think that there will be highs and lows, ebbs and flows, but I doln't see any real end to CC.
 
One of the people in that Steam forum made a good point... mining a specific cryptocurrency becomes slightly less profitable every day as it's difficulty rises.

At some point in the near future, Ethereum mining on a GPU won't make sense anymore. I've heard that ASIC's are already being developed for it, and when those start selling the difficulty will get to the point where you won't even be able to recoup your electricity costs by mining it with a GPU. This has already happened with Bitcoin and Litecoin in the past.

Of course, the GPU miners will move onto the next currency, but you have to wonder how many of those will actually take off now that the market is becoming saturated with all of the various crypto clones out there.
 
Yeah, it seems like way too many people have way too much invested in BitCoin (and other CC) to let it fail. The value will keep fluctuating but it will probably find a happy range and remain there for a while, at least until something new/more profitable comes along. I can't see dirt cheap GPUs showing up on eBay anytime soon.
 
VirtualLarry said:
I don't think it's really going to "Crash" (end with finality). I think that there will be highs and lows, ebbs and flows, but I doln't see any real end to CC.
Click to expand...
I expect BitCoin will fail someday, when its blockchain gets too unwieldy. But I don't see an end to CC in general.
 
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