Bitcoin is on fire again

[LegendKiller]

Bitcoin/cryptocoins represent a paradigm shift in payment systems. Time will tell if it becomes the new paradigm or if it is rejected in favor of the status quo - or something else.

Every time you here somebody say "paradigm shift" or "new paradigm" you fucking run. You don't walk away from it, you run the fuck away at the fastest speed possible.

 

[Rinaun]

Many in the past have succeeded like that though.

For the guy with no money to burn, it's too risky.

At the end of all these runs (to make it simple just the last 20-30 years: dotcom boom, buying early in Apple, Microsoft, Oracle, etc; gold, real estate flipping, buying cabbage patch kids/furbys to resell, etc ), you will have those that made a fortune and those left holding the bag.

Oh yeah, no doubt. I still kick myself for not taking my parents debit card and buying bitcoins for them; they would of been pissed at first but now watching the prices I think I'd rather go through the drama just to help them out.

I told them to invest when they were climbing to 20$ and for some reason the idea just sounded so outrageous that they told me they would have rather "gone to Vegas with the 200$". I was so tempted, I just never did buy 200$ of coin. If I had bought that, now 6+ months later we would of had...... easily 10 grand. Now? I wouldn't invest if you paid me to.

 

[LegendKiller]

Here's a chart comparing the DJI 2007/2008 chart to BTC's current chart:

That's a "head and shoulders top" for those interested in the name of the chart pattern.



That's exactly what they did in 2007 and 2008.

There isn't a single person that is very wealthy that has a long-term track record of investing that is sitting in his underwear at home looking at charts and drawing arrows that has been successful at technical trading.

Don't use people like Dalio or PTJ as examples of "technical trading" because they have legions of quants and high-speed computers that are analyzing micro second trades. Your technical analysis is a fucking joke and to say you have gotten in/out and timed your trades perfectly only highlights the intellectual fallacy that average technical traders fall into to stroke their egos while hiding their losses.

 

[SAWYER]

http://www.dailydot.com/business/bitcoin-tesla-model-s-car/

lol damn

 

[Train]

tanking? At $777.77

https://twitter.com/bitcoinprice/status/409155308968497153

 

[Blackjack200]

There isn't a single person that is very wealthy that has a long-term track record of investing that is sitting in his underwear at home looking at charts and drawing arrows that has been successful at technical trading.

Don't use people like Dalio or PTJ as examples of "technical trading" because they have legions of quants and high-speed computers that are analyzing micro second trades. Your technical analysis is a fucking joke and to say you have gotten in/out and timed your trades perfectly only highlights the intellectual fallacy that average technical traders fall into to stroke their egos while hiding their losses.

Ugh, and this head and shoulders bullshit is actually on the CFA exam now.

 

[LegendKiller]

Ugh, and this head and shoulders bullshit is actually on the CFA exam now.

Pretty sad. That's what you get when you water down real fundamental analysis with HFT pushing quants.

Shove them into the bond world and watch their theories of "technicals" dominating go down the drains.

Do they even require the reading of Irrational Exuberance now?

 

[holden j caufield]

Every time you here somebody say "paradigm shift" or "new paradigm" you fucking run. You don't walk away from it, you run the fuck away at the fastest speed possible.

haha +1, but hey if you use the card and let it work while you're sleeping or at work, why not, there is very little risk and I've got a few extra pcie slots.

 

[Blackjack200]

No, all the readings are pulled neatly into the texts that they issue. To be fair, most of it is fundamental analysis, it's funny to be studying and practicing CAPM, dividend discounts, and all the FI stuff, and then you go into fairy tale land of mountains and valleys and trend line bullshit.

 

[brianmanahan]

lol, technical analysis is like 14th century medicine. complicated, but useless.

 

[destrekor]

I think there's something here:

whatever I say about market analysis, run the opposite direction.

I wrote off bitcoin forever ago when it was low in price (after one or two price spikes), saying I couldn't get a worthwhile amount of coin from my GPUs (nvidia). I think if I started then, I could have something of real value now (for less than the power cost).

I also thought, if one could roughly estimate the jumps or at least catch on at the right time, you could invest trading-style, buying coin for cash and hoping it goes up. I swore off that idea because there was no fraud protection or anything like modern trading.


I also notably, at a time when I was somewhat day-trading (petty cash volumes ), when gold was like 700, that it just couldn't get going ridiculously high. I fucked that call up.

I also thought about Microsoft last year, and, well yeah, they're on quite the rise lately.

 

[IEC]

Every time you here somebody say "paradigm shift" or "new paradigm" you fucking run. You don't walk away from it, you run the fuck away at the fastest speed possible.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Kuhn

I meant it from a scientific perspective, not a financial one. Finance and economics guys like to pretend they are scientists but they're hardly rational, and often don't understand the meaning of the buzzwords they are using (or worse, are intentionally misleading).

 

[AnonymouseUser]

In light of the recent events:

United States dollar almost doubles in value in a single day

 

[halik]

Pretty sad. That's what you get when you water down real fundamental analysis with HFT pushing quants.

Shove them into the bond world and watch their theories of "technicals" dominating go down the drains.

Do they even require the reading of Irrational Exuberance now?

Ugh, and this head and shoulders bullshit is actually on the CFA exam now.

Meh, that section was literally like 3 pages and Level1 exam had about 1 question about it (something along the lines of "technical analysis attempts to predict blah blah"). Incidentally I finally got of my ass and doing L2 this year, will report back to see if they added more alchemy.

 

[halik]

In light of the recent events:

United States dollar almost doubles in value in a single day

Heh sadly it only happened in the cross with a crypto currency currently being fire sales by disappointed chinese.

 

[AnonymouseUser]

Heh sadly it only happened in the cross with a crypto currency currently being fire sales by disappointed chinese.

Here is a Chinese banker making sense of the "bad news":

Joseph Wang's answer to:
China: How will China's recent crack down on Bitcoins impact it's near-term and long-term value?

Joseph Wang's answer to:
China: What is the situation regarding Bitcoin from the perspective of someone in China?

It's actually really good news, but has been misinterpreted and used as a reason to sell at the end of a rally (it would have gone down even without the "bad news").

 

[Spungo]

lol, technical analysis is like 14th century medicine. complicated, but useless.

Some people are really good at it. That Jim Cramer guy on TV made millions through stock trading. His show doesn't reflect any of his skills because pumping and dumping is illegal, so the junk he recommends on TV is stuff he doesn't personally own. He also doesn't tell people when to sell things he previously recommended buying.

Drawing lines on a graph probably has a component similar to tarot cards. Tarot cards are interesting because they force people to frame things a certain way. The cards will say something bad is about to happen, so the person getting the reading will try to think of how this could be true. Why would something bad happen? What would this bad thing be? How can I prevent this bad thing?
I'll use Tesla as an example. I concluded months ago that this stock is going to crash. What if I still wanted to profit from Tesla on the ride up and during the crash? I might look at other bubbles to get an idea of how long bubbles last. I could draw some lines to estimate where the peak might be. It has dropped significantly from the peak and is rising again. I might want to look at other dead cat bounces to see how high these bounces go or how long they last.

 

[halik]

Here is a Chinese banker making sense of the "bad news":

Joseph Wang's answer to:
China: How will China's recent crack down on Bitcoins impact it's near-term and long-term value?

Joseph Wang's answer to:
China: What is the situation regarding Bitcoin from the perspective of someone in China?

It's actually really good news, but has been misinterpreted and used as a reason to sell at the end of a rally (it would have gone down even without the "bad news").

Anyone that claims the Chinese authorities will let bit coin become a medium of exchange in china is simply delusional. There is absolutely no way they'll let go of their monetary policy and that whole "it's a commodity" angle has been tried by Tancent and failed.

See QQ:
http://arstechnica.com/gaming/2009/06/china-outlaws-use-of-virtual-currency-for-real-world-items/

 

[LegendKiller]

Some people are really good at it. That Jim Cramer guy on TV made millions through stock trading. His show doesn't reflect any of his skills because pumping and dumping is illegal, so the junk he recommends on TV is stuff he doesn't personally own. He also doesn't tell people when to sell things he previously recommended buying.

Drawing lines on a graph probably has a component similar to tarot cards. Tarot cards are interesting because they force people to frame things a certain way. The cards will say something bad is about to happen, so the person getting the reading will try to think of how this could be true. Why would something bad happen? What would this bad thing be? How can I prevent this bad thing?
I'll use Tesla as an example. I concluded months ago that this stock is going to crash. What if I still wanted to profit from Tesla on the ride up and during the crash? I might look at other bubbles to get an idea of how long bubbles last. I could draw some lines to estimate where the peak might be. It has dropped significantly from the peak and is rising again. I might want to look at other dead cat bounces to see how high these bounces go or how long they last.

LOL - using Jim Cramer as an example of a technical trader.

Do you realize that somebody like Jim Cramer has a team of research analysts looking at all of the stuff he is buying/selling? Hedge funds don't just buy stuff on a whim and they don't just look at "heads and shoulders" graphs.

 

[xeemzor]

LOL - using Jim Cramer as an example of a technical trader.

Do you realize that somebody like Jim Cramer has a team of research analysts looking at all of the stuff he is buying/selling? Hedge funds don't just buy stuff on a whim and they don't just look at "heads and shoulders" graphs.

I imagine that there is a fair bit of insider info going around as well. The world of finance can be quite dirty.

 

[LegendKiller]

I imagine that there is a fair bit of insider info going around as well. The world of finance can be quite dirty.

He admitted to doing illegal things.

There are a lot of people like Steve Cohen out there.

 

[blankslate]

Someone recently bought a Tesla with bitcoins within the past few days

 

[xeemzor]

He admitted to doing illegal things.

There are a lot of people like Steve Cohen out there.

Yea, that's what pushed me out of finance. I can't imagine people who use money as a scoreboard and a way to judge self worth. Operations/Strategy is a waaay better fit for me.

Don't you ever run into moral hazard issues in your job? The money has to come from someone somewhere in a zero sum game. In essence the better you are at your job the more poor you make another. You can see this in how Wall Street salaries and bonuses have exploded at the cost of taking wage increases from other sectors. Is society really benefiting by having a 25 year old Investment Banker making $300k? One of my good friends lost his job at Citadel(when he was 20) because of moral issues and someone stabbing him in the back.

 

[Spungo]

LOL - using Jim Cramer as an example of a technical trader.

Do you realize that somebody like Jim Cramer has a team of research analysts looking at all of the stuff he is buying/selling? Hedge funds don't just buy stuff on a whim and they don't just look at "heads and shoulders" graphs.

Sure they do. Technical shows which part of the trend you're in.

 

[halik]

Sure they do. Technical shows which part of the trend you're in.

No