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Bird Flu----- another thing to worry about.

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Thousands? Try millions....

Well let's see... the current avian flu has a 50% mortality rate (the percentage in JoeMonkey's article is actually 59% (63/117)).

Figures from current National Geographic article...

If it mutates to person-to-person transmission, and 60 million people in the US catch it... then 30 million people die.






















That doesn't seem so bad, eh Joe?
 
But, if it mutates to human to human transmission, is it necessarily going to have the same mortality rate?
 
The list goes on and on...

I'm sure netflix doesn't disinfect the returned movies. What happens if someone sneezes on a disc and you get it next, touching it then rubbing your nose, etc.?

Yes there are soooo many ways to spread pathogens it isn't funny. Best not worry about it, your woody may conk out! 🙂
 
FYI- I know the guy who reconstructed the 1918 flu personally. I'll be sure to keep you guys updated if he packs up for Antarctica any time soon. 😛
 
Originally posted by: DrPizza
But, if it mutates to human to human transmission, is it necessarily going to have the same mortality rate?
Click to expand...

Very true.... nobody really knows (using your logic though... the mortality rate could also get higher, like ebola). However, there are enough parallels (aggressiveness, mortality rate, etc) to the virus that led to the 1918 pandemic that health ministers around the world are taking notice. They have been watching since 1997, when the virus first appeared in Hong Kong.

Only two medications have shown any effectiveness in treating the virus once you're infected, Tamiflu and Relenza. Two countries with much smaller populations, France and Great Britain, have stockpiles of 15 million doses already. The US has a meager 2 million doses.

Call me overly cautious, but I've already ordered several courses of treatment (Tamiflu) for me and my family from Canada.

Fausto... don't you work at the CDC? What's your take on this? (in a purely unofficial capacity, of course!)
 
Originally posted by: PingSpike
I have a strong immune system. I'm confident that in the event I was some how infected, I would be a survivor.
Click to expand...
same here.

it's the very young, old, and immunocompromised that usually die from the flu.

 
Is this like SARS?

I have a good immune system despite how much I smoke, but I rarely get sick beyond a cough or stuffy nose.
 
Originally posted by: Metron
Originally posted by: DrPizza
But, if it mutates to human to human transmission, is it necessarily going to have the same mortality rate?
Click to expand...

Very true.... nobody really knows (using your logic though... the mortality rate could also get higher, like ebola). However, there are enough parallels (aggressiveness, mortality rate, etc) to the virus that led to the 1918 pandemic that health ministers around the world are taking notice. They have been watching since 1997, when the virus first appeared in Hong Kong.

Only two medications have shown any effectiveness in treating the virus once you're infected, Tamiflu and Relenza. Two countries with much smaller populations, France and Great Britain, have stockpiles of 15 million doses already. The US has a meager 2 million doses.

Call me overly cautious, but I've already ordered several courses of treatment (Tamiflu) for me and my family from Canada.

Fausto... don't you work at the CDC? What's your take on this? (in a purely unofficial capacity, of course!)
Click to expand...

How much does a course of treatment cost?
If there's a 1% chance of this flu happening (anyone have a clue)
And a 1% chance that members of my family will get it if it happens
Then, I'd think $100 is quite reasonable insurance for something with a .0001 probability.
 
Okay.... $59 for 10pills...

What's the normal dosage?
Duration?
Shelf life?
(if the stuff is good for 10 years, then it'd definitely be worth the investment now)
 
Originally posted by: PingSpike
I have a strong immune system. I'm confident that in the event I was some how infected, I would be a survivor.
Click to expand...

What about your parents? Grand parents? Kids? Nieces and nephews?

We all have someone we love at risk from something like this.

That said, I think there is more hype than anything in this.
 
Originally posted by: DrPizza
Okay.... $59 for 10pills...

What's the normal dosage?
Duration?
Shelf life?
(if the stuff is good for 10 years, then it'd definitely be worth the investment now)
Click to expand...

10 pills total, 2x a day for 5 days. Like most drugs, I would imagine they are good for 3 years or so on the shelf.

Just seems like cheap insurance to me, for something potentially dangerous.
 
CNN report it land on Turkish poultry. So Asia and EU.... do birds fly from there to US? 😀
The reason why its a low infect rate of human (beside no human -> human) is that it seems to not doing well from bird -> human
but its mutating ... and probably a matter of time...

but make no mistake... 50% dead rate still a normal:


"This virus right from scratch is probably the worst influenza virus, in terms of being highly pathogenic, that I've ever seen or worked with," Webster says. Not only is it frighteningly lethal to chickens, which can die within hours of exposure, swollen and hemorrhaging, but it kills mammals from lab mice to tigers with similar efficiency. Here and there people have come down with it too, catching it from infected poultry. Half the known cases have died.
 
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