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Billionaire Bond investor predicts Trump win

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fskimospy said:
If they don’t take polls but just vote then why did the polls accurately predict Trump’s vote share in 2016 and why did they correctly predict Republican vote share in 2018?
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I don't know or care about vote share. I do know that pretty much every poll said Hillary was going to be president of the united states. They were wrong. Why pretend they had it right? Why search for some extenuating circumstance that shows they had it right when they clearly didn't?
While I would consider a Trump win extremely unlikely at this point, I wouldn't look at the polls and get all warm and fuzzy over it.
 
Greenman said:
I don't know or care about vote share. I do know that pretty much every poll said Hillary was going to be president of the united states. They were wrong. Why pretend they had it right? Why search for some extenuating circumstance that shows they had it right when they clearly didn't?
While I would consider a Trump win extremely unlikely at this point, I wouldn't look at the polls and get all warm and fuzzy over it.
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You're confusing the polls themselves with the people who were interpreting the polls.
 
Greenman said:
I don't know or care about vote share. I do know that pretty much every poll said Hillary was going to be president of the united states. They were wrong. Why pretend they had it right? Why search for some extenuating circumstance that shows they had it right when they clearly didn't?
While I would consider a Trump win extremely unlikely at this point, I wouldn't look at the polls and get all warm and fuzzy over it.
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You are living in a fantasy land. How have you constructed an alternate reality about something that wasn’t even four years ago? Is it too much right wing media?

The polls said Clinton would win the popular vote by about two points and she did. They were right. Some people extrapolated what they polls said into meaning Clinton would be president and were wrong but that doesn’t change the fact that the polls were extremely accurate. Why pretend otherwise?

If you would like to make the argument that despite being right in the past the polls are wrong now then make it. Don’t lie about their past performance though.
 
I will worry right up until the day he's officially defeated. perhaps it's because I live in rural Wisconsin, and on my 30 minute drive to work in neighboring Minnesota I see almost a dozen Trump signs, and no Biden signs in yards. Most of the Trump supporters unsurprisingly still are 100% for Trump, so we are going to rely on independents and young voters to get off their collective asses and get out and vote. It is still far from over, we are one lucky break for Trump away from 4 more years of him, because against everything else people think their 401k's are doing great.
 
fskimospy said:
So again if that’s the case why has this phenomenon not manifested itself in 2016 or 2018? Did something change in 2019?
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nOOky said:
I will worry right up until the day he's officially defeated. perhaps it's because I live in rural Wisconsin, and on my 30 minute drive to work in neighboring Minnesota I see almost a dozen Trump signs, and no Biden signs in yards. Most of the Trump supporters unsurprisingly still are 100% for Trump, so we are going to rely on independents and young voters to get off their collective asses and get out and vote. It is still far from over, we are one lucky break for Trump away from 4 more years of him, because against everything else people think their 401k's are doing great.
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The EC is in effect vs 2018.
I feel big data has figured out who to target, how to target and have a great success targeting.
I feel Trump has no shame losing by an unbelievable margin and will focus on the EC votes. He will whine about his feels being hurt and voter fraud simply because he doesn’t like his feels being hurt or people who disagree with him.
I feel the Presidents campaign machinery has better tools and lower ethics toward using the data provided.
 
Fanatical Meat said:
The EC is in effect vs 2018.
I feel big data has figured out who to target, how to target and have a great success targeting.
I feel Trump has no shame losing by an unbelievable margin and will focus on the EC votes. He will whine about his feels being hurt and voter fraud simply because he doesn’t like his feels being hurt or people who disagree with him.
I feel the Presidents campaign machinery has better tools and lower ethics toward using the data provided.
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Again, saying that Trump will win despite losing the popular vote is one thing but your argument was that the polls are wrong because they are not accurately capturing Trump supporters because they hide it.

If that's the case then presumably we would have seen Trump gain a significantly larger percentage of the vote than the polls stated in both 2016 and 2018. This was not the case though, the polls were very accurate. So why were they accurate then but not now? What changed?
 
fskimospy said:
Again, saying that Trump will win despite losing the popular vote is one thing but your argument was that the polls are wrong because they are not accurately capturing Trump supporters because they hide it.

If that's the case then presumably we would have seen Trump gain a significantly larger percentage of the vote than the polls stated in both 2016 and 2018. This was not the case though, the polls were very accurate. So why were they accurate then but not now? What changed?
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I'm not sure much has changed, but polls are only as accurate as those chosen to participate, and those willing to participate.
 
fskimospy said:
Again, saying that Trump will win despite losing the popular vote is one thing but your argument was that the polls are wrong because they are not accurately capturing Trump supporters because they hide it.

If that's the case then presumably we would have seen Trump gain a significantly larger percentage of the vote than the polls stated in both 2016 and 2018. This was not the case though, the polls were very accurate. So why were they accurate then but not now? What changed?
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Maybe I expressed myself wrong. FOR whatever reason polls in important states appear to miss deplorables for whatever reason.
Again I am content to wait and see, maybe it was the news, maybe it was social media, maybe it was the polls. Regardless 2016 appeared Hillary was a lock until ahe wasn’t.
 
jmagg said:
I'm not sure much has changed, but polls are only as accurate as those chosen to participate, and those willing to participate.
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Not really true, polls are pretty successful at correcting for non-response bias.

If nothing much has changed then it's reasonable to assume that the polls will be broadly as accurate as they have been in the past, which means no 'shy Trump voter' phenomenon.
Fanatical Meat said:
Maybe I expressed myself wrong. FOR whatever reason polls in important states appear to miss deplorables for whatever reason.
Again I am content to wait and see, maybe it was the news, maybe it was social media, maybe it was the polls. Regardless 2016 appeared Hillary was a lock until ahe wasn’t.
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The polls definitely didn’t show Hillary as a lock as of Election Day.
 
fskimospy said:
If nothing much has changed then it's reasonable to assume that the polls will be broadly as accurate as they have been in the past, which means no 'shy Trump voter' phenomenon.
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Are there currently polls from the key EC states that show a similar trend to the overall polling?
 
A toxic environment to me means more polarized, and that implies less squishy "I don't know how to pick" middle people (who are frankly mind-blowing to me, because the parties stand for very different things on a number of key issues.) I don't see how that makes polls more variable, 538 talks about it in fact.

Anecdotally, I don't see the same level of "both parties suck, I'm voting protest or writing in Bernie!" this time around. That goes with the statement of "we need to burn the system down, so maybe Trump is what we need". Well, he's indeed burning it down--getting what you want, yet? If you are ultra-rich and like swimming in pools full of 100 dollar bills Scrooge McDuck style, the answer is certainly "yes"--which is why this guy is wishcasting what he wants.
 
I live in Washington, a predominantly blue state...in the big cities. Out here in the hinterlands, however...I'm surrounded by "Trump 2020" flags and supporters.
 
Me, an idiot, looking at the numbers:

Historically unpopular
Dogshit performance ratings on the issues
Worst favorables in the field
Not ahead in any swing state pooling avg
Trailing by 8-9 points in the nationals
Generic congressional ballot looks like 2018

Really smart people:

people are systematically lying to anonymous pollsters
 
BoomerD said:
I live in Washington, a predominantly blue state...in the big cities. Out here in the hinterlands, however...I'm surrounded by "Trump 2020" flags and supporters.
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You can even find tons of extremely not shy Trump voters in the rich enclaves of Southern California that everybody assumes are universally Democratic/liberal.
 
BoomerD said:
I live in Washington, a predominantly blue state...in the big cities. Out here in the hinterlands, however...I'm surrounded by "Trump 2020" flags and supporters.
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What's sad is that Eastern Washington was represented for years in congress by https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Foley for years, a Democrat. Then the Repubs made there big lie about term limits and used that to get rid of him and of course reneged on their term limit policy. Eastern Washington hasn't been the same since.
 
hal2kilo said:
What's sad is that Eastern Washington was represented for years in congress by https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Foley for years, a Democrat. Then the Repubs made there big lie about term limits and used that to get rid of him and of course reneged on their term limit policy. Eastern Washington hasn't been the same since.
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I lived in Spokane during many of the Tom Foley years. Always seemed to be a good man.
 
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