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Billionaire Bond investor predicts Trump win

T

thilanliyan

Lifer
ca.news.yahoo.com

Gundlach, who called Trump's 2016 election, predicts he'll win again

The billionaire bond investor thinks the polls are "very, very squishy."
ca.news.yahoo.com ca.news.yahoo.com

This part of it is what I'm worried about:
""I think polls are very, very squishy right now because of the highly toxic political environment in which we live," Gundlach said. Gundlach said he’s come across data suggesting that about "two-thirds of conservatives or moderate conservatives say that they have lied about their support for Donald Trump either directly or by omission.""

I'm pretty sure there are people who are "ashamed" to publicly support Trump (in polling) but come Nov they will vote Repub no matter what cause ebil libruls. I'm really not sure there are many independents or undecided any more. I hope I'm wrong and the polls are accurate but his base is not insignificant and if there are enough people who will vote Repub no matter what in key states... 🙁
 
thilanliyan said:
ca.news.yahoo.com

Gundlach, who called Trump's 2016 election, predicts he'll win again

The billionaire bond investor thinks the polls are "very, very squishy."
ca.news.yahoo.com ca.news.yahoo.com

This part of it is what I'm worried about:
""I think polls are very, very squishy right now because of the highly toxic political environment in which we live," Gundlach said. Gundlach said he’s come across data suggesting that about "two-thirds of conservatives or moderate conservatives say that they have lied about their support for Donald Trump either directly or by omission.""

I'm pretty sure there are people who are "ashamed" to publicly support Trump (in polling) but come Nov they will vote Repub no matter what cause ebil libruls. I'm really not sure there are many independents or undecided any more. I hope I'm wrong and the polls are accurate but his base is not insignificant and if there are enough people who will vote Repub no matter what in key states... 🙁
Click to expand...

It's deja vu.

fivethirtyeight.com

It’s Way Too Soon To Count Trump Out

Joe Biden currently has a robust lead in polls. If the election were held today, he might even win in a landslide, carrying not only traditional swing states su…
fivethirtyeight.com fivethirtyeight.com

081220-topline_white.png
 
At best it's a 50-50 toss-up.

Anyone looking at a Michigan or Wisconsin poll where Biden is up by less than 10 and thinking Biden has it, is partaking in wishful thinking.
 
If Biden can win Florida where he's polling pretty well, he'll only have to win one between Penn, Wisc, Mich, NC so I think that 70% is fairly accurate right now.
 
imho, Green and Libertarian parties are a bit stronger than they were in 2016.

GPUS: Stein/Baraka => Howie/Walker
LP: Johnson/Weld => Jorgensen/Cohen

Personally, I am hoping for third party blunders...
www.politico.com

Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson: 'What is Aleppo?'

'I'm incredibly frustrated with myself,' Johnson says as his campaign tries to minimize the fallout.
www.politico.com www.politico.com
 
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What some bond investor says, or whether Trumpers are lying in their poll responses shouldn't have anything to do with it.

Look at the carnage (Oh! A favorite Trump word!). Thousands of immigrant kids separated from their parents, some permanently, housed in deplorable conditions. Two million civil servants -- some asked to work for nothing -- with a three-month loss of pay. National monuments scarred by building Trump's wall. The corruption of likely collusion and the very solid case of blackmailing the president of Ukraine. Obstruction of Congress. Obstruction of Justice. Moving toward 200,000 dead in one year for mismanaging the COVID epidemic and cancelling the pandemic response team Obama had put in place. Pre-presidential years of tax fraud and tax evasion. Consorting with hookers, then paying them off to keep quiet during the 2016 election campaign. Possible money laundering, using real-estate holdings. Using his office to make money, some of it from our own Treasury. Proposing to build a new FBI building to prevent his hotel competition from acquiring the same property.

"Bikers for Trump" and other slime can continue supporting him, but I don't believe a majority of the American people can stand for this. If so, the human race is doomed, either for ignorance, meanness and amorality and indifference.

No -- the only way he can win this election is to cheat. And this manipulation of the USPS, trying to turn political mail (and ballots) into bulk mail when it had First Class status is just one example of it. In some GOP-controlled states, they are limiting or reducing the drop-boxes in country registrar offices or other locations -- an option for COVID-wary voters who don't trust USPS under Trump. They're pulling out all stops, just to keep Trump out of several different criminal courtrooms.

If he steals the election, we're all doomed -- even the half-wit Trumpers, for even they have suffered, failing perhaps to admit it. I don't know how Kamala Harris can participate firsthand in holding Trump accountable, but we need a Nuremberg Redux. MSNBC needs a boost in its weekend ratings for a year-long series of LOCKUP: "From the White House to the Big House".

Otherwise, if he succeeds in stealing the election, you can strike through the words "RESIST! "IMPEACH!" "DEFEAT!" and replace them all with "OVERTHROW!"

And the question remains: Who will have the balls for it, and when does it start? I myself must budget my retirement pay to allow for guns and ammo.
 
Maxima1 said:
It's deja vu.

fivethirtyeight.com

It’s Way Too Soon To Count Trump Out

Joe Biden currently has a robust lead in polls. If the election were held today, he might even win in a landslide, carrying not only traditional swing states su…
fivethirtyeight.com fivethirtyeight.com

081220-topline_white.png
Click to expand...

Saw that earlier today. I think it's about right. It takes into consideration the amount of time between now and 11/3. As they said, based on this polling, if the election was held today, Trump would have virtually no chance.
 
thilanliyan said:
ca.news.yahoo.com

Gundlach, who called Trump's 2016 election, predicts he'll win again

The billionaire bond investor thinks the polls are "very, very squishy."
ca.news.yahoo.com ca.news.yahoo.com
Gundlach said he’s come across data suggesting that about "two-thirds of conservatives or moderate conservatives say that they have lied about their support for Donald Trump either directly or by omission.""
Click to expand...

That right there is a crock of shit. People do not decline to say that they support their candidate in anonymous phone polls. To the contrary, people who agree to participate in polls want to make their candidate look good.

And he's saying that not only are some conservatives doing this, but most of them are. That's odd, since polling data says that over 85% of self-identified republicans say they are voting for Trump. I guess most of them are just lying about their party affiliation and all along there's been twice as many republicans and democrats in this country?

He's lying about this "data." It's pure fabrication. Which is why I can't trust anything he says.
 
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Still, it will come down to the virus. If the virus is worse or the same, then people will still be out of work and people will want a change. That is why Donald Trump will start a new lie claiming a vaccine is ready to go. And link his re-election to that vaccine availability. While claiming inside information, Trump will suggest if he is re-elected then we will have the vaccine. If he loses, then no vaccine. Trump will lie about having a vaccine not concerned with the lie because if the lie works and Trump is elected and no vaccine comes along and everyone realizes Trump lied to get re-elected, what can people do? The damage would be done, the lie worked, and Donald Trump is president once again. What are Democrats to do, impeach him?

Mark my words, in the final days of the election Trump will lie about a vaccine. Trump will lie as last resort to get elected. And his lie will be an elaborate lie involving discredited professionals and faked medical experts dressed up in a rented white coat. Trump will promise a vaccine which doesn’t exist, cross his fingers, and hope the electorate falls for it.
 
thilanliyan said:
ca.news.yahoo.com

Gundlach, who called Trump's 2016 election, predicts he'll win again

The billionaire bond investor thinks the polls are "very, very squishy."
ca.news.yahoo.com ca.news.yahoo.com

This part of it is what I'm worried about:
""I think polls are very, very squishy right now because of the highly toxic political environment in which we live," Gundlach said. Gundlach said he’s come across data suggesting that about "two-thirds of conservatives or moderate conservatives say that they have lied about their support for Donald Trump either directly or by omission.""

I'm pretty sure there are people who are "ashamed" to publicly support Trump (in polling) but come Nov they will vote Repub no matter what cause ebil libruls. I'm really not sure there are many independents or undecided any more. I hope I'm wrong and the polls are accurate but his base is not insignificant and if there are enough people who will vote Repub no matter what in key states... 🙁
Click to expand...
The great news is this means if he actually believes something this dumb we all have an opportunity to take his money, haha.

Again, if someone wants to explain why Trump voters were not shy in 2016 and 2018 when the polls got it right, but suddenly became shy for 2020, by all means do so. Otherwise, this is a person telling stories to make himself feel better.
 
nickqt said:
At best it's a 50-50 toss-up.

Anyone looking at a Michigan or Wisconsin poll where Biden is up by less than 10 and thinking Biden has it, is partaking in wishful thinking.
Click to expand...
This is delusional thinking.

Ask yourself this - if Trump were up by an identical margin would you say the same thing? If not, you’re not thinking logically.
 
fskimospy said:
The great news is this means if he actually believes something this dumb we all have an opportunity to take his money, haha.

Again, if someone wants to explain why Trump voters were not shy in 2016 and 2018 when the polls got it right, but suddenly became shy for 2020, by all means do so. Otherwise, this is a person telling stories to make himself feel better.
Click to expand...

I do believe there are more deplorables than we think and i do believe there are many of them
I would guess because 2016 Trump was an unknown, 2020 Trump it is known he likes putting Brown kids in cages, he likes deporting adults who were brought here as infants they like the idea that the deported guy is a criminal.
They would be embarrassed if it became known, even if the poll is anonymous they dont trust it because fake news liberal media or just the internet
 
Fanatical Meat said:
I do believe there are more deplorables than we think and i do believe there are many of them
I would guess because 2016 Trump was an unknown, 2020 Trump it is known he likes putting Brown kids in cages, he likes deporting adults who were brought here as infants they like the idea that the deported guy is a criminal.
They would be embarrassed if it became known, even if the poll is anonymous they dont trust it because fake news liberal media or just the internet
Click to expand...
If that’s the case then why have the polls been able to consistently and accurately measure his support?
 
It depends a lot on how much election rigging and cheating by the GOP the courts will allow. For roughly the past twenty years the mantra of the "conservatives" on the bench is that the courts don't belong in the election process and they should keep hands off, leave it up to the elected officials currently in power (which is usually their favored party, the GOP). For over two hundred years before all political philosophies on the bench were united in that the courts-and all of us-had a strong duty to do everything possible to preserve, promote and protect free and fair elections in the USA, as that it the very bedrock of what the USA is.

The surrogates of Trump are actively sabotaging the entire concept of a fair election, through handicapping the post office's ability to handle absentee ballots based on spurious pretenses, or such things as artificially limiting ballot drop off locations for absolutely no valid reason.

Trump can steal a win-but if he does the American era will have officially ended. Our great experiment will have failed.

EDIT: The October surprise will be Barr announcing indictments of "deep state" officials that were involved in uncovering the Trump campaign's collusion with Russian intelligence during the 2016 campaign. Any vaccine announcement would be a followup surprise.
 
Unspecified indications of shy Trump voters
Polls are wrong
Socalism
Running mate is too appealing
Sexism

That guy has got everything.
 
woolfe9998 said:
Saw that earlier today. I think it's about right. It takes into consideration the amount of time between now and 11/3. As they said, based on this polling, if the election was held today, Trump would have virtually no chance.
Click to expand...
Yeah, for folks who just read the headlines of articles, it's worth pulling out and emphasizing this quote:
The uncertainty in our current 2020 forecast, conversely, stems mostly from the fact that there’s still a long way to go until the election. Take what happens if we lie to our model and tell it that the election is going to be held today. It spits out that Biden has a 93 percent chance of winning. In other words, a Trump victory would require a much bigger polling error than what we saw in 2016.
Click to expand...
Complacency is 100% bad. The election is in no way a gimmee. The Dems' supporters both need to do the work and show up and vote if they want to win. But anyone claiming that things look exactly the same as 2016 either isn't really paying attention or has an ax to grind.
 
fskimospy said:
If they don’t take polls but just vote then why did the polls accurately predict Trump’s vote share in 2016 and why did they correctly predict Republican vote share in 2018?
Click to expand...

Something has changed with polling. Not sure what but something has changed. Ill trust polls once the get a few more right
 
ewdotson said:
Yeah, for folks who just read the headlines of articles, it's worth pulling out and emphasizing this quote:

Complacency is 100% bad. The election is in no way a gimmee. The Dems' supporters both need to do the work and show up and vote if they want to win. But anyone claiming that things look exactly the same as 2016 either isn't really paying attention or has an ax to grind.
Click to expand...
But outside people dropping dead on the street from Covid. Highly doubt people won’t go out to vote in droves to get rid of the orange baby. So complacency that Biden has it in the bag shouldn’t be a concern.
 
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