Big 3 Take A Thumping In June

[jpeyton]

Did we expect sales of gas guzzling SUVs to drop? Yes. But now overall sales of all vehicles...trucks, crossovers, sedans, etc., have dropped for Ford, GM, and Chrysler. With the national average of gas hitting a new record of $4.10, spending on new vehicles from domestic auto makers is dropping through the floor.

Overall auto sales in the US will drop 12%, and Toyota will hold the line with a matching 12% decrease in sales. But Ford, GM, and Chrysler will post drops that far exceed the downturn in the industry; posting drops of 28%, 25%, and 31% respectively.

What vehicles are immune to the downturn? Not surprisingly, there are incredibly short inventories for cars like the Prius and Civic Hybrid, but traditional gas-powered Civics have small inventories too. Luxury brands are also showing immunity; inventories are short for cars like the Audi A5/S5, Mercedes C-Class, and Lexus LX luxury SUV.

Text

Ford sales plunge
Buyers flee SUVs and pickups and also shun Ford's cars and crossovers as automakers face worst month for U.S. sales since '92.
By Chris Isidore, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: July 1, 2008: 12:47 PM EDT

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Ford Motor reported that its U.S. sales tumbled 28% in June from a year ago, as record high gas prices and rising consumer worries about the economy resulted in what could turn out to be the weakest month for auto sales in 16 years.

Ford (F, Fortune 500), the No. 3 automaker in terms of U.S. sales, saw demand for its SUVs plunge by more than half and for pickups and other trucks fall more than a third.

Even the so-called crossovers, a sign of strength in the light truck segment until recently, saw sales off 18% from a year earlier, as buyers went searching for more fuel efficient vehicles in the face of record $4 gas prices. But Ford apparently didn't have the car models buyers were looking for, as its car sales fell 12%.

"Clearly, the rapid rise in gasoline prices, and the resulting shift toward fuel efficient vehicles, has been challenging," said Jim Farley, Ford group vice president, in a statement.

"Consumer fundamentals and consumer confidence deteriorated as the first half unfolded. The economy enters the second half of the year with a notable absence of momentum and a high degree of uncertainty," Farley continued.

Ford announced steep cuts in production of its pickup and other truck models last month and a shift towards more production of cars. It also said it expected to announce plans for further cuts in plants and capacity in the months ahead.

Farley said buyers' new demand for cars provided Ford an opportunity. But only the Ford Fusion, the Mercury Milan and the Volvo V70 and C70 posted year-over-year gains in sales. And sales of those four models combined only increased by 3000 vehicles from a year ago.

By comparison, sales of Ford's key F-Series pickup tumbled by more than 26,000 vehicles in June. The F-Series was, up until last month, the nation's best-selling vehicle.

Last month Ford announced it would delay the roll-out of the new version of the F-Series.

The overall sales slide was worse than the forecast of a 25% drop from auto sales tracker Edmunds.com.

Edmunds is also predicting a 25% drop in sales at General Motors (GM, Fortune 500), a 12% decrease in sales at Toyota Motor (TM) and 31% plummet in sales at Chrysler LLC.

Those automakers are due to report their June sales later Wednesday. Honda Motor (HMC) is the only major automaker expected to show even a modest gain from a year ago.

Overall U.S. sales are expected to fall 12%, according to Edmunds. Other experts are also forecasting a grim month for the industry.

Chrysler Chairman and CEO Bob Nardelli revealed last week that a private forecast from J.D. Power & Associates called for a seasonally-adjusted annual sales rate of only 12.5 million vehicles in June.

That would be the lowest reading in this closely watched measure since April 1992. It is also nearly 2 million below the rate seen in April and May of this year.

 

[Engineer]

The industry has been increasing sales each year up to a record 16+ million vehicles in the US last year. The number, according to the exec's in my own company, is now expected to drop in the 12+- million range. 25% or so drop in sales is a real killer....(my company is cutting to the bone...).

Honda is one of the true stars right now with a 3% year over year sales gain (thanks to Civic and Civic Hybrid).

 

[ayabe]

Big ticket items are not being bought whether it's cars, or furniture.

People are insecure.

 

[Moonbeam]

Who wants a gas car when you can drive a Telsa or a Volt.

 

[mxyzptlk]

Originally posted by: Moonbeam
Who wants a gas car when you can drive a Telsa or a Volt.

Kinda sucks that if you were in the income bracket that could afford a Tesla, rising fuel costs would be of little concern to you in any vehicle.

and I guess you'd have to be from the future to drive a volt..

 

[Ktulu]

Originally posted by: Moonbeam
Who wants a gas car when you can drive a Telsa or a Volt.

Is it 2010 already?

 

[jpeyton]

Originally posted by: Ktulu

Originally posted by: Moonbeam
Who wants a gas car when you can drive a Telsa or a Volt.

Is it 2010 already?

GM is getting their just desserts.

 

[WHAMPOM]

NA! It is 2008 and an EV1 would get 300 miles plus with an upto date battery pack instead of the orignal sixty mile-lead/acid. But GM destroyed them all, a great example of cutting of their nose to spite their face.

edit: 1997 GM EV1 with a range of 70 to 100 miles. First 100 vehicles released for test drive, got 10,000 responses(expected 900). Custom built, they were too expensive, but mass production would have reduced the price by 3/4 because they had so few parts. But with a 30,000 waiting list and 250,000 prospective customers(just CA), GM cut the production of electric cars.

 

[jpeyton]

Originally posted by: WHAMPOM
NA! It is 2008 and an EV1 would get 300 miles plus with an upto date battery pack instead of the orignal sixty mile-lead/acid. But GM destroyed them all, a great example of cutting of their nose to spite their face.

Not that we need 300-mile battery packs; a 60-mile commuter vehicle satisfies the needs of 90% of our population.

 

[Foxery]

The stock market reaction was fun;
Ford announced, whole market dropped (worse than expected?) and F hit a new low
Toyota announced, whole market dropped (worse than expected?) and TM didn't quite reach its low
GM announced, whole market went up (beat expectations) and GM's own stock rose ~20%

 

[EagleKeeper]

Originally posted by: jpeyton

Originally posted by: WHAMPOM
NA! It is 2008 and an EV1 would get 300 miles plus with an upto date battery pack instead of the orignal sixty mile-lead/acid. But GM destroyed them all, a great example of cutting of their nose to spite their face.

Not that we need 300-mile battery packs; a 60-mile commuter vehicle satisfies the needs of 90% of our population.

Given some of the commutes in the major metro areas, something with a range of 100-150 miles is needed. 60 miles seems to short for a one way limit unless a full recharge can be done or regeneration charging is available.

How would it handle the A/C load? Is that range on level surface vs hills like in CA metro areas.

A 600 mile range unit with a 8 hr recharge would be great for vacations.

 

[Genx87]

Originally posted by: Common Courtesy

Originally posted by: jpeyton

Originally posted by: WHAMPOM
NA! It is 2008 and an EV1 would get 300 miles plus with an upto date battery pack instead of the orignal sixty mile-lead/acid. But GM destroyed them all, a great example of cutting of their nose to spite their face.

Not that we need 300-mile battery packs; a 60-mile commuter vehicle satisfies the needs of 90% of our population.

Given some of the commutes in the major metro areas, something with a range of 100-150 miles is needed. 60 miles seems to short for a one way limit unless a full recharge can be done or regeneration charging is available.

How would it handle the A/C load? Is that range on level surface vs hills like in CA metro areas.

A 600 mile range unit with a 8 hr recharge would be great for vacations.

4-600 mile ranges will be a requirement for these things to replace pure gasoline engines.

 

[jpeyton]

Originally posted by: Common Courtesy
Given some of the commutes in the major metro areas, something with a range of 100-150 miles is needed. 60 miles seems to short for a one way limit unless a full recharge can be done or regeneration charging is available.

100-150 miles one way? A very small minority of commuters make that kind of trip daily.

 

[EagleKeeper]

Originally posted by: jpeyton

Originally posted by: Common Courtesy
Given some of the commutes in the major metro areas, something with a range of 100-150 miles is needed. 60 miles seems to short for a one way limit unless a full recharge can be done or regeneration charging is available.

100-150 miles one way? A very small minority of commuters make that kind of trip daily.

I am thinking that range is needed if the unit can not reach a full charge within a 6 hr time frame.

I agree that there are very few that are in the car for 2 hrs at a time (when it is not traffic).

Many metro areas can easily exceed a 60 mile commute becuase of suburban sprawl.

 

[Ldir]

Originally posted by: Genx87

4-600 mile ranges will be a requirement for these things to replace pure gasoline engines.

Why? Most gasoline cars do not have that range.

 

[ElFenix]

http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/0...ales/index.htm?cnn=yes

GM dropped 8% on a daily sales rate basis, down 18% during the calendar month (3 less sales days including 1 less weekend this june than last)

toyota fell 21%, though i'm not sure how to take that. the article indicates that the japanese report on daily sales rate, not raw numbers. so if 21% if based on daily sales rate, then they were down on a calendar month a huge amount.

Originally posted by: jpeyton
GM is getting their just desserts.

so what is toyota getting?

 

[Thump553]

As ElFenix reported above, GM sales only dropped about 8%. The market was expecting greater than a 20% drop, and its stock actually went up for the day. Shows how strange the times are right now, when not so terrible news is treated as something to cheer.

Edit: I've seen reports that Ford's liabilities exceed its assets, and GM is extremely close to the same cliff edge. In essence, the bond holders are in charge of both companies now, and you buy their stock (which is fundamentally valueless now) purely on faith of things getting better in the future.

 

[Genx87]

Originally posted by: Ldir

Originally posted by: Genx87

4-600 mile ranges will be a requirement for these things to replace pure gasoline engines.

Why? Most gasoline cars do not have that range.

Most cars top out at 350-400 today. I can gurantee you 60 miles wont cut it.

 

[JSt0rm]

yeah GM failed imagine if they were 7 or 8 generations of electric car in. I used to think they had some kind of motive that involved the oil companies but now I see they are just stupid. The fact that they killed the ev1 will ensure I will never buy a GM car no matter what they do (its not like its hard - just look at those things).

 

[WHAMPOM]

Originally posted by: Common Courtesy

Originally posted by: jpeyton

Originally posted by: WHAMPOM
NA! It is 2008 and an EV1 would get 300 miles plus with an upto date battery pack instead of the orignal sixty mile-lead/acid. But GM destroyed them all, a great example of cutting of their nose to spite their face.

Not that we need 300-mile battery packs; a 60-mile commuter vehicle satisfies the needs of 90% of our population.

Given some of the commutes in the major metro areas, something with a range of 100-150 miles is needed. 60 miles seems to short for a one way limit unless a full recharge can be done or regeneration charging is available.

How would it handle the A/C load? Is that range on level surface vs hills like in CA metro areas.

A 600 mile range unit with a 8 hr recharge would be great for vacations.

EV1 charger 5Kw, 80% in 45 minutes, full charge in two hours. Lead/acid took eight.

 

[Ldir]

Originally posted by: Genx87

Originally posted by: Ldir

Originally posted by: Genx87

4-600 mile ranges will be a requirement for these things to replace pure gasoline engines.

Why? Most gasoline cars do not have that range.

Most cars top out at 350-400 today. I can gurantee you 60 miles wont cut it.

Right, not 400-600 like you said. But people will accept less range in electrics. You can refuel electric cars at home at night instead of going to a gas station. 150-200 miles will be good enough for most people. That is plenty for commuting and running errands.

 

[ElFenix]

Originally posted by: JSt0rm01
yeah GM failed imagine if they were 7 or 8 generations of electric car in. I used to think they had some kind of motive that involved the oil companies but now I see they are just stupid. The fact that they killed the ev1 will ensure I will never buy a GM car no matter what they do (its not like its hard - just look at those things).

it's not like they killed your mom and peed on her corpse.

when gas was $1.50 a gallon in 2002 going on with the EV1 was a stupid business proposition. not to mention the battery tech was pushed more by cell phones and laptops than GM ever could have.


edit: so now that the facts have come out and GM has beaten the 25% estimate and toyota has almost double the 12% predicted drop, will jpeyton edit the OP?

 

[Ktulu]

Might want to change the title to "Big 4".

Toyota apparently took a huge hit of 21%.

http://forums.anandtech.com/me...=2202954&enterthread=y

So how are the Toyota nut riders going to spin this?

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: Genx87

Originally posted by: Ldir

Originally posted by: Genx87

4-600 mile ranges will be a requirement for these things to replace pure gasoline engines.

Why? Most gasoline cars do not have that range.

Most cars top out at 350-400 today. I can gurantee you 60 miles wont cut it.

It will if gasoline rises enough in price.

 

[WHAMPOM]

Originally posted by: JSt0rm01
yeah GM failed imagine if they were 7 or 8 generations of electric car in. I used to think they had some kind of motive that involved the oil companies but now I see they are just stupid. The fact that they killed the ev1 will ensure I will never buy a GM car no matter what they do (its not like its hard - just look at those things).

Oh, a working electric car out on the road could only have lead to imitation, competition and innovation. GM cut that right in the bud.