Originally posted by: eleison
Originally posted by: puffff
The $2B number for subprime numbers has been floating around out there for a while now. It's pretty much common knowledge that thats what BSC had in subprime. The fact that we presented that number to JPM, and JPM accepted that number after their due diligence reaffirms it. We had JPM employees all over our building (yes i work at BSC) friday afternoon looking at our books and records, so there's no questioning the numbers.
JPM pretty much had everyone by the balls on this one. They were one of two entities present when bear stearns offered itself up for sale. The other, a private equity firm, had little shot at it. When you have a motivated seller and only one buyer, the buyer can almost name his terms. Hence the $2 share price. And being able to convince the fed, who also wanted to see this deal done, to take on the risk. there's no point in them accepting a deal with no conditions when they're in the driver's seat here.
the other mortgage backed securities that are not subprime havent yet blown up on the scale subprime has. but there are many who believe that's next. JPM wanted to take on as little risk as possible, which is what any sane company would do right now, and so if they were able to get the deal with fed backing, why wouldnt they?
there's no doubt in my mind the company could've continued to operate if it werent for the run on the bank. fundamentally, it was as sound as it was 3 months, 6 months ago. if anything, it was the business model that was at fault, but no one could've predicted fear in the market could have such drastic effects.
Still doesn't make sense. If BSC was such a good company, why must they sell within only a few days? If it was such a good company, why aren't their more suitors -- not just a couple that you mention? Just doesn't add up. The smart people at BSC must know that their building is worth 1.5 billion, but yet the entire company is being bought for only $240million -- how can they allow this to happen unless there is some "funny business" going on.
Also, the Feds must certainly know, if you are correct, that BSC is worth a lot of money, but yet the Feds still need to back the deal for JPM to bite... It was in the news that w/o backing, JPM would not buy...
None of this makes sense if BSC was a "good company". It only makes sense if BSC was a bad company... I say ockman's razor prevails. Just like ENRON or the housing bubble, all the experts said it was "sound", it wasn't until things really started getting bad, that the real reasons were discovered. This is probably the same case...