Originally posted by: kenshorin
Here's my predictions...
AL East - Toss up between Boston and NY. The #2 team gets Wild Card. I think this is the year the Sox take em out though. :beer:
AL Central - not like it matters, because the winning team will not get beyond the ALDS. It will be close, even though the teams are weaker than the other divisions. Because of the Twins firesale, I think they will lose a few games off their final season total from last year. I think Chicago has a stronger rotation which will carry them further than last year, so I give them the edge. KC is the X factor however, if they can build on last years success.
AL West - Gotta give the Angels the edge, they did a hell of a job building. Seattle is on a continuing downward spiral, and I can see at LEAST one of Oakland's big three getting hurt (Either Hudson or Mulder... Zito's pitching style makes him a little less likely to get hurt.) They are going to lean even heavier on their rotation this year than last, and I think Mulder's injury last year was very telling of how the stress that team is putting on those guys is starting to wear on them (A stress fracture of the HIP?)
NL East - Tough to pick. I can't pick Philly even though they have a good team because Larry Bowa is a cancer. Florida may have won the WS, but they are young, so it will depend on how they respond... gotta go with Atlanta.
NL Central - Good teams in this division. the Cubs have great young pitching, but the Astros have also gotten much better in their rotation as well. One of those teams gets #1, the other one will be wild card. St Louis will be good but won't be able to compete with those two teams.
NL West - SF, all the other teams are weak.
I agree with all your predictions except for the NL East. The Fightin' Phils have improved so much you have to give the division to them, unless the Marlins pitching can bail them out. Look at their starters: Milton, Wolf, Padilla, Millwood, and promising young
Brett Myers, who's only 23!. They have arguably the most dominating closer in the MLB in Billy Wagner, he frequently hits 100+ on the radar (watch some of Barry Bonds' at bats against him, it's not even a contest).
Their bullpen: Arguably the most effective pitcher against lefties out of the pen, Rheal Cormier, who posted a 1.70 ERA,0.93 WHIP, and 8-0 record last year. They picked up Hernandez who set up Smoltz last season for the Braves, their rivals. They got Tim Worrell from the Giants, who saved 38 games last year and will set up Wagner. Madson (23) and Hancock (25) are both wet behind the ears young guys who will try and compete for a bullpen spot as well. Telemaco is solid, and Bud Smith can get the job done as well.
Their lineup: Added Doug Glanville coming off the bench, who had some clutch hits in the playoffs last year. Resigned Rollins to keep virtually the identical lineup as last year's team, so they are comfortable with their spots in the lineup and no adjustment will be necessary.
Overall analysis: We're talking about a team who won 86 games last year, ranked 12th in offense (keep in mind FL batted 17th, and ATL 2nd in the MLB) and kept all of their batting lineup; and ranked 11th in pitching (FL 10th, ATL 12th). They gained Worrell, Wagner, and Hernandez to help their ailing bullpen. They added Milton who is a top 3 starter on most MLB teams.
FL loses Encarnacion in the OF, Derek Lee at 1st, Redman from the starting rotation, and Pudge Rodriguez. They will even lose their closer, Urbina, b/c he's a free agent as well, and the Marlins haven't even called him up yet.
The Braves have lost their starting 3B(Castilla), OF (Sheffield), 1B(Fick), and C (Lopez). They lose Hernandez (to the Phils), Mercker, Reynolds, and Marquis out of the pen... I think that's enough to dislodge them out of the top spot in the East...
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