Back of the envelope calculations on a 3 module Kaveri

[Vesku]

With the current Haswell expectations being similar to SB->IB there has been musings that this may be the opportunity AMD needs to narrow the gap in CPU performance.

I have a more involved spreadsheet that takes Anandtech.com/bench numbers and adjusts them but the results I was most interested in were a what if: 15% IPC improvement over 6300 along with a 10% perfectly scaling clockspeed bump (~FX 6350 clocks). Here is how the imagined product compares to the 3570K results:

 

[Abwx]

IPC improvement for a whole module will be closer to 20%
according to AMD s numbers so your estimation is right only
for softs that are purely single threaded , about none in this list.

Edit : Also clocks should be limited to 4Ghz.

 

[SiliconWars]

Kaveri will lack the L3 cache remember, and that does make a difference - especially in gaming.

I believe performance will rise higher than 15%-20% but I don't know how AMD will keep power under control. I'm not sure they will even try at first - they'll aim for faster by sheer brute force. What AMD really needs to do is finally put the i3's to rest and distance themselves from those chips, so that Kaveri can comfortably sell for >$150 with a couple of SKU's. That shouldn't be difficult at all.

 

[Vesku]

IPC improvement for a whole module will be closer to 20%
according to AMD s numbers so your estimation is right only
for softs that are purely single threaded , about none in this list.

Edit : Also clocks should be limited to 4Ghz.

Actually most of the areas this guesstimate is below 3570K are single threaded situations. 10% over 6300 clocks puts this estimated peformance at 3.85GHz and probably overestimates what it will be set to boost to.

 

[Montosaurous]

Kaveri will lack the L3 cache remember, and that does make a difference - especially in gaming.

I believe performance will rise higher than 15%-20% but I don't know how AMD will keep power under control. I'm not sure they will even try at first - they'll aim for faster by sheer brute force. What AMD really needs to do is finally put the i3's to rest and distance themselves from those chips, so that Kaveri can comfortably sell for >$150 with a couple of SKU's. That shouldn't be difficult at all.

It would be pretty awesome if AMD got the i3 retired, or at least priced much lower.

 

[SPBHM]

It would be pretty awesome if AMD got the i3 retired, or at least priced much lower.

well, if AMD aims for $150 that also dangerously close to i5 territory,


I would love to see Intel lowering the i3 prices, or giving something else (like unlocked multi :ninja: ), so I hope AMD does put some pressure, because I'm not very excited about how much faster the current i3s are compared to what they were in 2011 or even before.

 

[Montosaurous]

i3's are only good if you plan on playing older games or if it is for an office machine.

 

[moviegoer1948]

i3's are only good if you plan on playing older games or if it is for an office machine.

Right on point, I will say they are only good for an office machine, and not so much for even playing older games, much better options out there for cheap.

 

[Montosaurous]

The Pentium G2120 would be better for older games, true.

 

[AtenRa]

Even if you add 15% IPC to A10-5800K + 50% for the GPU then you completely make the Core i3 irrelevant at the $120-130 price market.

 

[raghu78]

AMD needs a very strong response in Kaveri to stop the CPU division from bleeding further. Kabini/Temash is important but truly it is the big core Kaveri which will ensure sustained profitability for AMD's CPU division in the long term. Last year AMD's CPU division lost 1 billion revenue compared to previous year. the Q1 2013 figures were even worse. they lost USD 450 million revenue in a single quarter compared to the same quarter a year ago.

What I am worried about is the Globalfoundries 28nm bulk process being the game spoiler. AMD has traditionally required SOI to match Intel's bulk transistor performance. nobody in the industry comes close to Intel's bulk transistor performance characterisitics. Also Globalfoundries has been the major reason for the delay to Kaveri. the 28nm production ramp at Globalfoundries has been severely delayed due to process issues. By the time Kaveri launches Haswell would be mid way through its lifecycle and Broadwell on 14nm would be around the corner. Thats what is scary.

 

[AtenRa]

By the time Kaveri launches Haswell would be mid way through its lifecycle and Broadwell on 14nm would be around the corner. Thats what is scary.

By the time Kaveri launches Intel will also launch Haswell Core i3, current Core i5 and i7 are not in the same segment with AMDs APUs. And since i dont expect a GT3 with those Haswell Core i3, Kaveri will have no competition both in CPU and iGPU performance.

 

[SPBHM]

i3's are only good if you plan on playing older games or if it is for an office machine.

sure there are a few games that are really hard on the i3, but the vast majority of newer games runs fine (for the cost)


currently I would agree that the i3s don't look as good as they did 2 years ago, but I hardly think it's accurate to describe it as an office CPU only,

I decided to give up 15 minutes of my life and take a look at basically every single "gamegpu" CPU test from this year (which included newer AMD CPUs, unfortunately only Sandy Bridge for Intel), adding a a few TomsHardware results that I was able to find for some of the same games, unfortunately there aren't many options to look for good gaming CPU tests, but this doesn't give such a disastrous result for even the i3 2100 (cheapest sandy bridge i3 from 2011)

Neverwinter 
[url]http://www.tomshardware.com/reviews/neverwinter-performance-benchmark,3495-9.html[/url]

i3 3220 slower but not far from the 8350

or here
[url]http://gamegpu.ru/images/stories/Test_GPU/MMO/Neverwinter%20Dungeons%20%20Dragons/nevervinter%20proz.jpg[/url]

i3 2100 not far from the 4300/6300.

Metro Last Light
[url]http://gamegpu.ru/images/stories/Test_GPU/Action/Metro%20Last%20Light/test/nastr/m%20proz.jpg[/url]

i3 2100 around 4100-6100

Far Cry 3 Blood Dragon
[url]http://gamegpu.ru/images/stories/Test_GPU/Action/Far%20Cry%203%20%20Blood%20Dragon/test/fc3%20%20proz.jpg[/url]

i3 2100 faster than the 8350.

Dead Island Riptide
[url]http://gamegpu.ru/images/stories/Test_GPU/Action/Dead%20Island%20Riptide/di%20proz.jpg[/url]

faster, but not a big deal, all the CPUs are to fast.

Marverl Heroes Beta
[url]http://gamegpu.ru/images/stories/Test_GPU/MMO/Marvel%20Heroes/test/mh%20proz.jpg[/url]

i3 2100 ahead of the 8350

Van Helsing

[url]http://gamegpu.ru/images/stories/Test_GPU/RPG/The%20Incredible%20Adventures%20of%20Van%20Helsing/vh%20proz.jpg[/url]

irrelevant, again...

World of Thanks

[url]http://gamegpu.ru/images/stories/Test_GPU/MMO/World%20of%20Tanks%200.8.5.0/wot%20proz.jpg[/url]

i3 2100 ahead of the 8350

Coh 2 beta

[url]http://gamegpu.ru/images/stories/Test_GPU/strategy/Company%20of%20Heroes%202/test/coh%202%20proz.jpg[/url]

i3 2100 ahead of the 8350

Sim City 2013

[url]http://gamegpu.ru/images/stories/Test_GPU/strategy/Sim%20City/ss%20proz.jpg[/url]

i3 2100 as fast as the 8350.

World of Airplanes

[url]http://gamegpu.ru/images/stories/Test_GPU/MMO/World%20of%20Warplanes/test/wow%20proz.jpg[/url]

i3 2100 ahead of the 8350

Bioshock Infinite

[url]http://gamegpu.ru/images/stories/Test_GPU/Action/Bioshock%20Infinite/test/bi%20proz.jpg[/url]

i3 2100 ahead of the 6300

Resident Evil 6

[url]http://gamegpu.ru/images/stories/Test_GPU/Action/Resident%20Evil%206/test/re%206%20proz.jpg[/url]

i3 2100 ahead of the 8350


Tomb Raider

[url]http://gamegpu.ru/images/stories/Test_GPU/Action/Tomb%20Raider%20тест%20GPU%20v%202/tr%20proz.png[/url]

i3 2100 is to slow, behind a 2.6GHz Athlon II X4
(I played the entire game on the i3 2100 and I had to lower Level of Detail to high or medium to get good, 30 or higher, framerate and higher GPU usage during the worst parts, like on the shanty town)


Start Craft 2 Heart of the Swan

[url]http://gamegpu.ru/images/stories/Test_GPU/strategy/StarCraft%20II%20Heart%20of%20the%20Swarm/test/sc2%20proz.png[/url]

i3 2100 ahead of the 8350

Sniper Ghost Warrior 2

[url]http://gamegpu.ru/images/stories/Test_GPU/Action/Sniper%20Ghost%20Warrior%202/test/SniperGhostWarrior2_proz.jpg[/url]

irrelevant

BF3 endgame (2013) MP64

[url]http://gamegpu.ru/images/stories/Test_GPU/Action/Battlefield%203%20End%20Game/test/bf3%20EG%20PROZ.jpg[/url]

i3 2100 as fast as the 8150

Arma III Alpha

[url]http://gamegpu.ru/images/stories/Test_GPU/Action/ARMA%20III%20Alpha/test/arma%203%20proz%20u.jpg[/url]

i3 as fast as the 4300 and other AMD CPUs


Crysis 3

[url]http://gamegpu.ru/images/stories/Test_GPU/Action/Crysis%203/test/proz.jpg[/url]

i3 2100 slower than the 2.6GHz Athlon II X4!

[url]http://media.bestofmicro.com/O/M/375430/original/Crysis3-CPU.png[/url]

i3 3220 as fast as the FX 4170.

Aliens Colonial Marines

[url]http://gamegpu.ru/images/stories/Test_GPU/Action/Aliens%20Colonial%20Marines/test/acm%20proz.png[/url]

i3 2100 faster than the 8350

Dead Space 3

[url]http://gamegpu.ru/images/stories/Test_GPU/Action/Dead%20Space%203/test/ds3%20proz.png[/url]

irrelevant

Devil May Cry

[url]http://gamegpu.ru/images/stories/Test_GPU/Action/DmC%20Devil%20May%20Cry/test/DMC-DevilMayCry_proz.jpg[/url]

irrelevant

also from late 2012
[url]http://pclab.pl/art50000-11.html[/url]

so, I guess it's not that bad, probably still holds it's a appeal when you consider power usage and some of the games for a lower cost system, but one thing is clear, the i5s are clearly ahead the competition (and are near the top for every game), and the price difference is not all that bad, if not, it's always a good case for the 6300, which is strong argument against the i3s for sure.

so if Intel doesn't change much, the $150 and lower is where AMD can shine at the moment, but I think the lower i5s are to close (180) in many cases.

I would hope Intel to at least release i3s with higher clock... it would certainly make a good difference, and they have a lot of room for that I would think.

 

[raghu78]

sure there are a few games that are really hard on the i3, but the vast majority of newer games runs fine (for the cost)

currently I would agree that the i3s don't look as good as they did 2 years ago, but I hardly think it's accurate to describe it as an office CPU only,

I decided to give up 15 minutes of my life and take a look at basically every single "gamegpu" CPU test from this year (which included newer AMD CPUs, unfortunately only Sandy Bridge for Intel), adding a a few TomsHardware results that I was able to find for some of the same games, unfortunately there aren't many options to look for good gaming CPU tests, but this doesn't give such a disastrous result for even the i3 2100 (cheapest sandy bridge i3 from 2011)

so, I guess it's not that bad, probably still holds it's a appeal when you consider power usage and some of the games for a lower cost system, but one thing is clear, the i5s are clearly ahead the competition (and are near the top for every game), and the price difference is not all that bad, if not, it's always a good case for the 6300, which is strong argument against the i3s for sure.

so if Intel doesn't change much, the $150 and lower is where AMD can shine at the moment, but I think the lower i5s are to close (180) in many cases.

I would hope Intel to at least release i3s with higher clock... it would certainly make a good difference, and they have a lot of room for that I would think.

Inte's core i3 CPU performance is never a problem. what we need to see is the GPU in i3. What we need to know - is the gpu performance on core i3 the same as their core i7 models. Haswell GT2 found on core i7 looks to be slower than 65w Richland A10 6700 GPU.

http://wccftech.com/intel-hd-4600-graphics/

Kaveri will be a significant improvement over Richland. The only question is will all Kaveri A10/A8 APU models come with GDDR5 memory. If Kaveri A10/A8 does come with GDDR5 the improvement its going to be more than 50% as Trinity/Richland lose performance due to bandwidth constraints.

 

[frozentundra123456]

Inte's core i3 CPU performance is never a problem. what we need to see is the GPU in i3. What we need to know - is the gpu performance on core i3 the same as their core i7 models. Haswell GT2 found on core i7 looks to be slower than 65w Richland A10 6700 GPU.

http://wccftech.com/intel-hd-4600-graphics/

Kaveri will be a significant improvement over Richland. The only question is will all Kaveri A10/A8 APU models come with GDDR5 memory. If Kaveri A10/A8 does come with GDDR5 the improvement its going to be more than 50% as Trinity/Richland lose performance due to bandwidth constraints.

Any kind of serious gaming is going to require a dedicated gpu, even with kaveri. At best it will have only hd7750 level of performance, not really adequate for higher image quality at 1080p and above in modern games.

 

[SiliconWars]

Any kind of serious gaming is going to require a dedicated gpu, even with kaveri. At best it will have only hd7750 level of performance, not really adequate for higher image quality at 1080p and above in modern games.

Well let's see what we can do based on the little information we have.

A 7750 is roughly equal to a 5770, 4870, GTX 650, GTX 550 Ti, GTX 260

Using the Steam hardware survey - http://store.steampowered.com/hwsurvey/videocard/ we can see that cards faster than these are...

NVIDIA GeForce GTX 560 Ti - 2.85%
NVIDIA GeForce GTX 460 - 1.72%
NVIDIA GeForce GTX 560 - 1.66%
NVIDIA GeForce GTX 670 - 1.43%
ATI Radeon HD 6870 - 1.36%
NVIDIA GeForce GTX 570 - 1.32%
ATI Radeon HD 6850 - 1.31%
NVIDIA GeForce GTX 660 - 1.31%
NVIDIA GeForce GTX 660 Ti - 1.13%
ATI Radeon HD 7850 - 1.09%
NVIDIA GeForce GTX 680 -1.09%
ATI Radeon HD 6950 -1.08%
NVIDIA GeForce GTX 580 -0.96%
ATI Radeon HD 6970 - 0.69%
ATI Radeon HD 7870 - 0.67%
ATI Radeon HD 7950 - 0.65%
ATI Radeon HD 7970 - 0.64%
ATI Radeon HD 5850 -0.63%

Other is 35.25% but the huge majority of those will be older, slower cards.

So after adding all those up we get a total percent of 22% of current gamers using a stronger card than the 7750. In other words, Kaveri will be good enough for almost 75% of the whole gaming market.

 

[raghu78]

Any kind of serious gaming is going to require a dedicated gpu, even with kaveri. At best it will have only hd7750 level of performance, not really adequate for higher image quality at 1080p and above in modern games.

no. if you are not a person who wants max eye candy kaveri should be more than enough. Kaveri A10 with GDDR5 should beat HD 7750 which runs at 800 mhz. clocks on kaveri are expected to be 900 Mhz.

http://www.3dcenter.org/news/amds-kaveri-apu-kommt-mit-gddr5-oder-ddr4-speichercontroller

http://www.tomshardware.com/reviews/radeon-hd-7770-7750-benchmark,3135-6.html

HD 7750 does 35 fps at High settings without MSAA in BF3 at 1080p. BF3 uses one of the most advanced game engines (Frostbite 2). The performance of Kaveri should be more than enough for high settings in most games. a game like crysis 3 you might have to run medium settings and tweak a bit more.

 

[frozentundra123456]

sure there are a few games that are really hard on the i3, but the vast majority of newer games runs fine (for the cost)


currently I would agree that the i3s don't look as good as they did 2 years ago, but I hardly think it's accurate to describe it as an office CPU only,

I decided to give up 15 minutes of my life and take a look at basically every single "gamegpu" CPU test from this year (which included newer AMD CPUs, unfortunately only Sandy Bridge for Intel), adding a a few TomsHardware results that I was able to find for some of the same games, unfortunately there aren't many options to look for good gaming CPU tests, but this doesn't give such a disastrous result for even the i3 2100 (cheapest sandy bridge i3 from 2011)

Neverwinter 
[url]http://www.tomshardware.com/reviews/neverwinter-performance-benchmark,3495-9.html[/url]

i3 3220 slower but not far from the 8350

or here
[url]http://gamegpu.ru/images/stories/Test_GPU/MMO/Neverwinter%20Dungeons%20%20Dragons/nevervinter%20proz.jpg[/url]

i3 2100 not far from the 4300/6300.

Metro Last Light
[url]http://gamegpu.ru/images/stories/Test_GPU/Action/Metro%20Last%20Light/test/nastr/m%20proz.jpg[/url]

i3 2100 around 4100-6100

Far Cry 3 Blood Dragon
[url]http://gamegpu.ru/images/stories/Test_GPU/Action/Far%20Cry%203%20%20Blood%20Dragon/test/fc3%20%20proz.jpg[/url]

i3 2100 faster than the 8350.

Dead Island Riptide
[url]http://gamegpu.ru/images/stories/Test_GPU/Action/Dead%20Island%20Riptide/di%20proz.jpg[/url]

faster, but not a big deal, all the CPUs are to fast.

Marverl Heroes Beta
[url]http://gamegpu.ru/images/stories/Test_GPU/MMO/Marvel%20Heroes/test/mh%20proz.jpg[/url]

i3 2100 ahead of the 8350

Van Helsing

[url]http://gamegpu.ru/images/stories/Test_GPU/RPG/The%20Incredible%20Adventures%20of%20Van%20Helsing/vh%20proz.jpg[/url]

irrelevant, again...

World of Thanks

[url]http://gamegpu.ru/images/stories/Test_GPU/MMO/World%20of%20Tanks%200.8.5.0/wot%20proz.jpg[/url]

i3 2100 ahead of the 8350

Coh 2 beta

[url]http://gamegpu.ru/images/stories/Test_GPU/strategy/Company%20of%20Heroes%202/test/coh%202%20proz.jpg[/url]

i3 2100 ahead of the 8350

Sim City 2013

[url]http://gamegpu.ru/images/stories/Test_GPU/strategy/Sim%20City/ss%20proz.jpg[/url]

i3 2100 as fast as the 8350.

World of Airplanes

[url]http://gamegpu.ru/images/stories/Test_GPU/MMO/World%20of%20Warplanes/test/wow%20proz.jpg[/url]

i3 2100 ahead of the 8350

Bioshock Infinite

[url]http://gamegpu.ru/images/stories/Test_GPU/Action/Bioshock%20Infinite/test/bi%20proz.jpg[/url]

i3 2100 ahead of the 6300

Resident Evil 6

[url]http://gamegpu.ru/images/stories/Test_GPU/Action/Resident%20Evil%206/test/re%206%20proz.jpg[/url]

i3 2100 ahead of the 8350


Tomb Raider

[url]http://gamegpu.ru/images/stories/Test_GPU/Action/Tomb%20Raider%20тест%20GPU%20v%202/tr%20proz.png[/url]

i3 2100 is to slow, behind a 2.6GHz Athlon II X4
(I played the entire game on the i3 2100 and I had to lower Level of Detail to high or medium to get good, 30 or higher, framerate and higher GPU usage during the worst parts, like on the shanty town)


Start Craft 2 Heart of the Swan

[url]http://gamegpu.ru/images/stories/Test_GPU/strategy/StarCraft%20II%20Heart%20of%20the%20Swarm/test/sc2%20proz.png[/url]

i3 2100 ahead of the 8350

Sniper Ghost Warrior 2

[url]http://gamegpu.ru/images/stories/Test_GPU/Action/Sniper%20Ghost%20Warrior%202/test/SniperGhostWarrior2_proz.jpg[/url]

irrelevant

BF3 endgame (2013) MP64

[url]http://gamegpu.ru/images/stories/Test_GPU/Action/Battlefield%203%20End%20Game/test/bf3%20EG%20PROZ.jpg[/url]

i3 2100 as fast as the 8150

Arma III Alpha

[url]http://gamegpu.ru/images/stories/Test_GPU/Action/ARMA%20III%20Alpha/test/arma%203%20proz%20u.jpg[/url]

i3 as fast as the 4300 and other AMD CPUs


Crysis 3

[url]http://gamegpu.ru/images/stories/Test_GPU/Action/Crysis%203/test/proz.jpg[/url]

i3 2100 slower than the 2.6GHz Athlon II X4!

[url]http://media.bestofmicro.com/O/M/375430/original/Crysis3-CPU.png[/url]

i3 3220 as fast as the FX 4170.

Aliens Colonial Marines

[url]http://gamegpu.ru/images/stories/Test_GPU/Action/Aliens%20Colonial%20Marines/test/acm%20proz.png[/url]

i3 2100 faster than the 8350

Dead Space 3

[url]http://gamegpu.ru/images/stories/Test_GPU/Action/Dead%20Space%203/test/ds3%20proz.png[/url]

irrelevant

Devil May Cry

[url]http://gamegpu.ru/images/stories/Test_GPU/Action/DmC%20Devil%20May%20Cry/test/DMC-DevilMayCry_proz.jpg[/url]

irrelevant

also from late 2012
[url]http://pclab.pl/art50000-11.html[/url]

so, I guess it's not that bad, probably still holds it's a appeal when you consider power usage and some of the games for a lower cost system, but one thing is clear, the i5s are clearly ahead the competition (and are near the top for every game), and the price difference is not all that bad, if not, it's always a good case for the 6300, which is strong argument against the i3s for sure.

so if Intel doesn't change much, the $150 and lower is where AMD can shine at the moment, but I think the lower i5s are to close (180) in many cases.

I would hope Intel to at least release i3s with higher clock... it would certainly make a good difference, and they have a lot of room for that I would think.

Some posters seem to be on a crusade against the i3 basically. It is still adequate as a gaming processor. That said, it would not be my choice. Considering the entire cost of a system, buying games, internet, etc, etc. except for very unusual circumstances, it seems foolish not to get at least a low end i5 cpu for a gaming build.

I also think a non-hyperthreaded intel quad will be more than adequate for several years despite the claims of those who think everything is suddenly going to need 8 cores. I would be concerned about a dual core, even with HT though as far as longevity is concerned.

 

[Khato]

Here's the back of the envelope estimate I'd like to see for such a Kaveri - die size. Trinity is already at 246 mm^2 and even if you assume perfect scaling to 28nm it'd still be 188 mm^2. But to go to 3 module and 512 shaders would increase die size over 2 module 384 shaders by roughly 50, at which point you've grown the die up to around 282 mm^2.

Those i3's that keep getting brought up are 149 mm^2 for the SNB based 2C-GT2 and 118 mm^2 for IVB based 2C-GT2. aka, they sure had better destroy the i3's in pretty much all metrics considering that they're basically using 2x the die space.

As for the comparison to Intel's 4C offerings. Hey, if they manage to catch up to IVB by the end of this year good for them. I'll be enjoying Haswell in a few weeks

 

[AtenRa]

A dual module quad core, 512 GCN core Kaveri at 28nm should be close to 200mm2, adding another module + 2MB L2 should raise the die size close to ~25mm2.

So, a 6 core Kaveri die should be smaller or at least close to Trinity.

 

[SlowSpyder]

What does the rumor mill say about when Kaveri will launch? Is it a 2014 part?

 

[AtenRa]

@slowspyder

AMD have said Q4 2013

 

[Vesku]

Here's the back of the envelope estimate I'd like to see for such a Kaveri - die size.

On the consumer end, I think considerations about die size are quite minimal if they exist at all. The only real relevance it has is in how it might impact retail pricing and product choice. As die size considerations may impact whether AMD decides to put out a 3 module + 512 GCN core part at all or stick to a 2 module top end in their APUs.

I mean would any consumer be upset if Intel had to move full 4 core dies into their i3 line? Would ther be "this die is too large" hate mail?

 

[nehalem256]

Here's the back of the envelope estimate I'd like to see for such a Kaveri - die size. Trinity is already at 246 mm^2 and even if you assume perfect scaling to 28nm it'd still be 188 mm^2. But to go to 3 module and 512 shaders would increase die size over 2 module 384 shaders by roughly 50, at which point you've grown the die up to around 282 mm^2.

Those i3's that keep getting brought up are 149 mm^2 for the SNB based 2C-GT2 and 118 mm^2 for IVB based 2C-GT2. aka, they sure had better destroy the i3's in pretty much all metrics considering that they're basically using 2x the die space.

As for the comparison to Intel's 4C offerings. Hey, if they manage to catch up to IVB by the end of this year good for them. I'll be enjoying Haswell in a few weeks

The good news is that with the WSA die space is basically free. The only question is what are the power consumption consequences.

 

[Abwx]

It would make sense economcaly to start with a 3 modules die ,
that would be good enough against i5s on desktops while they
could salvage the functional 2 modules dies for mobile since
an eventual 1M/2C Kaveri does no more make sense given
that the low end is to be squeezed by Kabini.