Average Obamacare Enroll - Age 50+ Game Set.

[senseamp]

You are missing something. Something VERY important.

#1) First and foremost, last I checked the average lifespan isn't 80. Our nation is heavily obese, I would place the average lifespan ~60-65 at the most.

#2) The most important point that is being missed the most: THIS IS A PYRAMID SCHEME. That means, they MUST have shitloads of young people to account for the older generations taking advantage and paying the same (or less) price. You must understand, the principle of ObamaCare revolves around the idea that the population is still multiplying (when in reality, population growth has actually slowed down, see boomerang's post on birth rates). Even if it was at the average age, that would not matter because what is needed is for it to be heavily on the young side, hence Pyramid Scheme.

I don't think you know what a Pyramid Scheme is.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Technically, not apples to apples. Your employer is charged by the insurance company and passes a portion of that charge on to you. When the insurer sends your employer a bill it is rated based on morbidity (i.e. in proportion to risk). That your employer chooses to pass the cost on to the employees in a flat manner is a different dynamic.

Oh No! It's completely the same. You see, because he doesn't see what happens behind the scene's - it doesn't exist! La-la-la-la-la I'm not listening!

 

[Agent11]

In my state the website http://www.coveroregon.com// still is not operational, at all.

Between the older people with health conditions and the expansion of medicaid to cover low income people I have a hard time imagining the math working out.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

I don't think you know what a Pyramid Scheme is.

.. I don't think you do? What is so hard to understand? The people at the top are ALWAYS relying on the people at the bottom.

The people at the top are the one's taking advantage of the situation, while the people at the bottom are always screwed.

 

[Dman8777]

You are missing something. Something VERY important.

#1) Average lifespan is 78 in the US. Our nation is heavily obese, it's funny, our lifespan is something that is missing the "middle class". Most are either going to die at ~55-65, or from 85-100.

#2) The most important point that is being missed the most: THIS IS A PYRAMID SCHEME. That means, they MUST have shitloads of young people to account for the older generations taking advantage and paying the same (or less) price. You must understand, the principle of ObamaCare revolves around the idea that the population is still multiplying (when in reality, population growth has actually slowed down, see boomerang's post on birth rates). Even if it was at the average age, that would not matter because what is needed is for it to be heavily on the young side, hence Pyramid Scheme.

Your second point is true for all forms of insurance though, whether mandated by the government or not. It's also not technically a pyramid scheme because no one's getting rich (outside of the private insurers anyway) and the young people will eventually be old and benefit in the same way as those who are currently older. In other words, there's no fraud being perpetrated here.

 

[piasabird]

I think they are stretching the truth and they are counting the medicare enrollees.

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

I think they are stretching the truth and they are counting the medicare enrollees.

I've heard that as well.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

I think they are stretching the truth and they are counting the medicare enrollees.

In yet it still looks just as bad when it is included

Your second point is true for all forms of insurance though, whether mandated by the government or not. It's also not technically a pyramid scheme because no one's getting rich (outside of the private insurers anyway) and the young people will eventually be old and benefit in the same way as those who are currently older. In other words, there's no fraud being perpetrated here.

These insurance companies KNOWINGLY see the higher risk in patients (Pretty much all that have enrolled so far). Any normal insurance situation would be accounting for the risk they are taking by charging higher premiums. Instead, it's a government formula. This is completely unlike any normal insurance situation.

 

[EagleKeeper]

I think they are stretching the truth and they are counting the medicare enrollees.

Medicare or Medicaid?
Medicare is fixed at 65 or over and is not state dependent.
Medicaid is per state to cover the low income

 

[sactoking]

I think they are stretching the truth and they are counting the medicaid enrollees.

Fixed that.

But you're right, the reports generally refer to "health law enrollees" so they can roll the Medicaid numbers up as well.

 

[spacejamz]

Can anyone provide a reasonable explanation of why a young male in his 20's would pay $200/month instead of paying the small fine. Many don't have coverage now...is there something different that will now cause them to sign up, especially in the numbers that are needed to make the ACA work as intended?

 

[senseamp]

.. I don't think you do? What is so hard to understand? The people at the top are ALWAYS relying on the people at the bottom.

The people at the top are the one's taking advantage of the situation, while the people at the bottom are always screwed.

By top you mean people who are sick at the moment and bottom you mean people who are healthy at the moment? That's how insurance works, quick, call the FTC and tell them to shut down all insurance companies as pyramid schemes.

 

[senseamp]

Can anyone provide a reasonable explanation of why a young male in his 20's would pay $200/month instead of paying the small fine. Many don't have coverage now...is there something different that will now cause them to sign up, especially in the numbers that are needed to make the ACA work as intended?

The fine scales with income. So if you are low income, the fine is small, but then your insurance is subsidized and also cheap or even free under Medicaid.
Also, if you are hit by a car, by the time your insurance application is processed, you could be bankrupt with Medical bills.

 

[fskimospy]

The fine scales with income. So if you are low income, the fine is small, but then your insurance is subsidized and also cheap or even free under Medicaid.
Also, if you are hit by a car, by the time your insurance application is processed, you could be bankrupt with Medical bills.

You could also be like me and get cancer at 28 and end up with $200k in medical bills. Or maybe you have allergies and want to get allergy treatments. Or maybe you have one of a zillion other maladies you would like to have treated.

Might it be cheaper just to self pay those and skip insurance? Sure. Then again you get the discounts for insurance for those treatments and have the security of not being bankrupted by a major illness on top of it.

Maybe that calculation doesn't work for everyone, but I imagine it works for quite a few.

 

[spacejamz]

The fine scales with income. So if you are low income, the fine is small, but then your insurance is subsidized and also cheap or even free under Medicaid.

What if you are not low income? Does the White House really think these people will still pay $200/month instead of the $100/whatever fine? (will the fine ever get close to what the yearly premium would be?)

Has a breakdown of by income by age group (to see how many would qualify for a subsidy vs how many would pay full price) ever been produced?

Also, if you are hit by a car, by the time your insurance application is processed, you could be bankrupt with Medical bills.

How is that different than what happened before ACA?

 

[senseamp]

What if you are not low income? Does the White House really think these people will still pay $200/month instead of the $100/whatever fine? (will the fine ever get close to what the yearly premium would be?)

Has a breakdown of by income by age group (to see how many would qualify for a subsidy vs how many would pay full price) ever been produced?
How is that different than what happened before ACA?

http://www.healthinsurance.org/learn/obamacare-penalty-calculator/
If you aren't low income, your fine is not $100. For a single person making 50K, it's 400 next year, 800 in 2015, 1K in 2016. If you'd rather pay $100 per month for nothing than $200 per month for health insurance, I suppose you can. That $100 per month can then be used to ensure taxpayers against the risk of you getting into an accident and racking up more bills than you can handle.

 

[boomerang]

So, are the Medicaid enrollee's still on the hook for the deductible? Read something today saying that was the case.

 

[spacejamz]

http://www.healthinsurance.org/learn/obamacare-penalty-calculator/
If you aren't low income, your fine is not $100. For a single person making 50K, it's 400 next year, 800 in 2015, 1K in 2016. If you'd rather pay $100 per month for nothing than $200 per month for health insurance, I suppose you can. That $100 per month can then be used to ensure taxpayers against the risk of you getting into an accident and racking up more bills than you can handle.

So basically, there is no reason to believe that non-low income twentysomethings will actually pay for coverage (they aren't paying for it now. It stands to reason that they would be okay with paying the lesser amount)....to top it off, they can only get fined if they are owed a federal tax refund.

Guess we will see what happens by March of next year...

 

[senseamp]

So basically, there is no reason to believe that non-low income twentysomethings will actually pay for coverage (they aren't paying for it now. It stands to reason that they would be okay with paying the lesser amount)....to top it off, they can only get fined if they are owed a federal tax refund.

Guess we will see what happens by March of next year...

It may take till 2016 as penalty ramps up for some people to get the message.

 

[EagleKeeper]

It may take till 2016 as penalty ramps up for some people to get the message.

And by then the costs will accelerate to the insurance companies because they do not have the base to support the system.

Two years of expensive care being racked up without the broad base healthy income to compensate. Expect to see premiums jump to compensate.

 

[Darwin333]

Nope.

Normally in the insurance game you are paying based on how risky you are. That is not the case here. This is a case of socialism in that you are all equally paying the same amount, except not everyone is taking the same amount.

To be fair, a perfectly "true" health insurance of any kind would become impossible for anyone to afford once they hit a certain age. Is that what you are advocating, kicking the old and sick to the curb after their risk reaches a point in which they can't possibly afford any kind of reasonable healthcare?

If it was a fact that your house will burn down in the next 10 years how much do you suppose your home owners would go up? The answer is more than you could possibly afford.

 

[poofyhairguy]

It may take till 2016 as penalty ramps up for some people to get the message.

Some people will never get the message if the message is to pay more for more value. If people could get that message Wal-Mart wouldn't exist.

"Being responsible" is about the lamest selling point you could have for a product in 2013 when your audience is the YOLO generation.

 

[senseamp]

And by then the costs will accelerate to the insurance companies because they do not have the base to support the system.

Two years of expensive care being racked up without the broad base healthy income to compensate. Expect to see premiums jump to compensate.

www.cms.gov/CCIIO/Resources/Files/Downloads/3rs-final-rule.pdf

3R's:
Reinsurance
Risk Corridors
Risk Adjustment

The government insures health plans against adverse selection risk for a transition period until 2016.

 

[EagleKeeper]

www.cms.gov/CCIIO/Resources/Files/Downloads/3rs-final-rule.pdf

3R's:
Reinsurance
Risk Corridors
Risk Adjustment

The government insures health plans against adverse selection risk for a transition period until 2016.

More taxpayer payments on the hook.
Premiums will go up as far as allowed and then they will ask for a government handout.

 

[poofyhairguy]

Is that what you are advocating, kicking the old and sick to the curb after their risk reaches a point in which they can't possibly afford any kind of reasonable healthcare?

No, but they should be funneled into a different system that has a facet of care rationing and end of life counseling.