Asian stocks.... down sharply...

[Zebo]

"Michigan, which took in $26.4 million a month through the tax five years ago, is now averaging $9.8 million a month"

States to be next banks. aka too big to fail.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/...will-apf-14505291.html

 

[Jaskalas]

Originally posted by: Skoorb
Zebo's list among others are why this economy is nowhere near a bottom yet. Stock market? Who freaking knows, calling that it appears nobody can do, but calling a duck a duck is not hard, and this economy truly is still getting screwed hard.

Well, it is said that the market looks ahead. So it should turn around before the economy hits bottom. No idea when that'll be though.

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: Jaskalas

Originally posted by: Skoorb
Zebo's list among others are why this economy is nowhere near a bottom yet. Stock market? Who freaking knows, calling that it appears nobody can do, but calling a duck a duck is not hard, and this economy truly is still getting screwed hard.

Well, it is said that the market looks ahead. So it should turn around before the economy hits bottom. No idea when that'll be though.

Yeah that's true. It seems to pre-empt by about six months, although it didn't during the last recession at the beginning of the decade. Normally does, tho.

 

[Firebot]

Originally posted by: Zebo
I'll close them out if good news starts appearing. Too much shit yet to hit fan.

-layoffs and ripple effect as loss of tax revenues hit the states and municipalities.
-Commercial RE
-Resets of ARM's
-Jobless claims worse every month
-more banks to fail because of that after people chew though savings
and so on... and you can think this is just a recession all you want see you in summer.

Exactly, buying when there's no good news and all bad news is a recipe for disaster. It's the same with those AMD stock buying dolts who kept on saying buy buy because AMD will always come back, while everything they do they butcher. They've been saying that even back when AMD was around 30$.

People have been saying buy back since Dowjones hit 11K. Bailouts and stimulus plans are NOT good news, at least until they show an effect.

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: Zebo
I'll close them out if good news starts appearing. Too much shit yet to hit fan.

-layoffs and ripple effect as loss of tax revenues hit the states and municipalities.
-Commercial RE
-Resets of ARM's
-Jobless claims worse every month
-more banks to fail because of that after people chew though savings
and so on... and you can think this is just a recession all you want see you in summer.

You don't think the market has all those obvious items priced in yet?

The market's waiting for the govt to nationalize the bad banks right now.

 

[miketheidiot]

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Zebo
I'll close them out if good news starts appearing. Too much shit yet to hit fan.

-layoffs and ripple effect as loss of tax revenues hit the states and municipalities.
-Commercial RE
-Resets of ARM's
-Jobless claims worse every month
-more banks to fail because of that after people chew though savings
and so on... and you can think this is just a recession all you want see you in summer.

You don't think the market has all those obvious items priced in yet?

The market's waiting for the govt to nationalize the bad banks right now.

i agree.

The uncertainty of what the government is going to do is probably hurting markets worse than any actually nationalization would, at least in my opinion. clearing up some of the systemic risk would be a good thing, and probably make up for any downsides to nationalization.

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: miketheidiot

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Zebo
I'll close them out if good news starts appearing. Too much shit yet to hit fan.

-layoffs and ripple effect as loss of tax revenues hit the states and municipalities.
-Commercial RE
-Resets of ARM's
-Jobless claims worse every month
-more banks to fail because of that after people chew though savings
and so on... and you can think this is just a recession all you want see you in summer.

You don't think the market has all those obvious items priced in yet?

The market's waiting for the govt to nationalize the bad banks right now.

i agree. The uncertainty of what the government is going to do is probably hurting markets worse than any actually nationalization would, at least in my opinion. clearing up some of the systemic risk would be a good thing.

After they nationalize the banks, there will be a short term rally (maybe even back up to 8k), then all those other items listed will erode earnings and the market will probably come back to a 7k-8k trading range.

 

[miketheidiot]

also i think the market will bottom at around 4500 to 5000, sometime in mid-late 2010, and the recession will end between q3 2009 or q1 2010. Once the banking sector gets sorted (and its on its way, imo) things should get noticably better.

 

[Zebo]

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Zebo
I'll close them out if good news starts appearing. Too much shit yet to hit fan.

-layoffs and ripple effect as loss of tax revenues hit the states and municipalities.
-Commercial RE
-Resets of ARM's
-Jobless claims worse every month
-more banks to fail because of that after people chew though savings
and so on... and you can think this is just a recession all you want see you in summer.

You don't think the market has all those obvious items priced in yet?

The market's waiting for the govt to nationalize the bad banks right now.

Somewhat but not near enough due to unsophisticated investor class brought on visa vi 401k's and other quasi-forced plans keeping money in preventing a total breakdown. You guys don't understand we are having a systemic breakdown - not enough salaries or jobs to float any kind of decent economy. Almost gains in the past 10 years were financed though debt taken out in from overvalued RE. Party is over we are leveraged to the max. In order to correct this we must make things people holding our notes and cash want. With deadbeat nation we have this is impossible unless we have a massive sociological change. America needs to vomit and it's going to.

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: Zebo

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Zebo
I'll close them out if good news starts appearing. Too much shit yet to hit fan.

-layoffs and ripple effect as loss of tax revenues hit the states and municipalities.
-Commercial RE
-Resets of ARM's
-Jobless claims worse every month
-more banks to fail because of that after people chew though savings
and so on... and you can think this is just a recession all you want see you in summer.

You don't think the market has all those obvious items priced in yet?

The market's waiting for the govt to nationalize the bad banks right now.

Somewhat but not near enough due to unsophisticated investor class brought on visa vi 401k's and other quasi-forced plans keeping money in preventing a total breakdown. You guys don't understand we are having a systemic breakdown - not enough salaries or jobs to float any kind of decent economy. Almost gains in the past 10 years were financed though debt taken out in from overvalued RE. Party is over we are leveraged to the max. In order to correct this we must make things people holding our notes and cash want. With deadbeat nation we have this is impossible unless we have a massive sociological change. America needs to vomit and it's going to.

No, I understand. I vote Dow 5500. You just make it sound like the market is so stupid it hasn't priced in all those risks you listed.

 

[Zebo]

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Zebo

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Zebo
I'll close them out if good news starts appearing. Too much shit yet to hit fan.

-layoffs and ripple effect as loss of tax revenues hit the states and municipalities.
-Commercial RE
-Resets of ARM's
-Jobless claims worse every month
-more banks to fail because of that after people chew though savings
and so on... and you can think this is just a recession all you want see you in summer.

You don't think the market has all those obvious items priced in yet?

The market's waiting for the govt to nationalize the bad banks right now.

Somewhat but not near enough due to unsophisticated investor class brought on visa vi 401k's and other quasi-forced plans keeping money in preventing a total breakdown. You guys don't understand we are having a systemic breakdown - not enough salaries or jobs to float any kind of decent economy. Almost gains in the past 10 years were financed though debt taken out in from overvalued RE. Party is over we are leveraged to the max. In order to correct this we must make things people holding our notes and cash want. With deadbeat nation we have this is impossible unless we have a massive sociological change. America needs to vomit and it's going to.

No, I understand. I vote Dow 5500. You just make it sound like the market is so stupid it hasn't priced in all those risks you listed.

They have not find out nationalization won't work yet just like they had to find out the hard way all these injections were not working.

It's akin to loaning a minimum wage worker (americans) ten million dollars (increasing debt load) and expecting payment. Not going to happen.

 

[StageLeft]

You don't think the market has all those obvious items priced in yet?

Apparently not, or else why does it continue to plummet? The market has no idea what it wants to do. The market is also made up of a lot of people who are watching their 401k disappear and as it continues to sink they are wondering when it will stop and just simply want to cut their losses. Once they get out, they will not be eager to get back in.

 

[BuckNaked]

Hong Kong down 3.5% already...

^HSI Hang Seng 11,882.04 9:24PM ET Down 435.42 (3.53%)

http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia

seems to be cutting losses now... tot 2.55% at 10:00 pm EST

 

[rchiu]

Originally posted by: Slew Foot

Originally posted by: rchiu

Originally posted by: Slew Foot
The Nikkei was at 38,000 in 1989, currently at 7200.

That's your future folks.

Yeah, I am sure Japan has become a third world country with mobs running around the street and children starving just because their stock dropped by 4/5.

Where the heck did I say that? Learn to read doofus.

Where the heck did I say you said that? Just a general comments on ppl crying about stock prices and thinking it's the end of the world just because stock prices are low.

 

[Ozoned]

Originally posted by: Skoorb

You don't think the market has all those obvious items priced in yet?

Apparently not, or else why does it continue to plummet? The market has no idea what it wants to do. The market is also made up of a lot of people who are watching their 401k disappear and as it continues to sink they are wondering when it will stop and just simply want to cut their losses. Once they get out, they will not be eager to get back in.

For millions of people, 401K can't be touched unless employee is terminated from his employment. I venture a guess that those are the majority of the people still in.

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: Ozoned

Originally posted by: Skoorb

You don't think the market has all those obvious items priced in yet?

Apparently not, or else why does it continue to plummet? The market has no idea what it wants to do. The market is also made up of a lot of people who are watching their 401k disappear and as it continues to sink they are wondering when it will stop and just simply want to cut their losses. Once they get out, they will not be eager to get back in.

For millions of people, 401K can't be touched unless employee is terminated from his employment. I venture a guess that those are the majority of the people still in.

They can do as I've done, though, which is continue to unwind and put the money into bonds where I can at least watch my money slowly melt instead of be thrown on a gasoline-charged bonfire