ARM profits up 22%. Maybe the tech economy is doing well after all.

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Genx87

Lifer
Apr 8, 2002
41,091
513
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Oh goody. A whole year.

Time isn't in ARM's favor. The mobile market has a strong desire for higher performance, and this isn't ARM's comfort zone. It's Intel's territory. ARM would rather not go there if they can help it. Meanwhile Intel is very successfully lowering the power consumption of its designs. So ARM is being forced to fight an uphill battle, only to find a giant who's running down that same hill to destroy them.

Nonsense. Tablets don't replace a desktop or laptop. Intel's margins are affected by other factors. ARM hasn't stolen any market share from Intel yet, but Intel is about to steal market share from ARM.

Come on tablet and smartphone growth is through the roof while Intels desktop dvision saw an 8% drop year on year. AMD saw a 9% drop.

We keep hearing about how Intel is going to start taking mountains of marketshare in the tablet, phone, and ultra mobile market. Yet they dont have a phone, they dont have a tablet anybody buys, and their ultra book has been a complete flop. It is always just around the corner right? Reminds me of another product launch. Performance and sales right around the corner. That sunk just like the Titanic.
 

Exophase

Diamond Member
Apr 19, 2012
4,439
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Nonsense. Tablets don't replace a desktop or laptop. Intel's margins are affected by other factors. ARM hasn't stolen any market share from Intel yet, but Intel is about to steal market share from ARM.

So what exactly would you attribute the sharp decline in netbook sales to? Seeing as how netbooks were pretty much the only market Atom was successful in..
 

BenchPress

Senior member
Nov 8, 2011
392
0
0
Come on tablet and smartphone growth is through the roof while Intels desktop dvision saw an 8% drop year on year. AMD saw a 9% drop.
Please read post #6 for two reasons why that's the case.
We keep hearing about how Intel is going to start taking mountains of marketshare in the tablet, phone, and ultra mobile market. Yet they dont have a phone, they dont have a tablet anybody buys, and their ultra book has been a complete flop. It is always just around the corner right?
You appear to have no sense of time scale here. Intel can and will deliver highly competitive chips in these markets in 2013/2014. That's a very short time from an investor's point of view. But it's not as if tomorrow we can have this conversation again and I have anything tangible to show as proof, and you can use that as proof of the contrary.
 

Genx87

Lifer
Apr 8, 2002
41,091
513
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Please read post #6 for two reasons why that's the case.

You appear to have no sense of time scale here. Intel can and will deliver highly competitive chips in these markets in 2013/2014. That's a very short time from an investor's point of view. But it's not as if tomorrow we can have this conversation again and I have anything tangible to show as proof, and you can use that as proof of the contrary.

I have a fine sense of timescale. I have been listening to Intel proclaim they are right around the corner to break into these markets for several years now. I have no doubt they will deliver what they believe to be a product to get into the market. But my confidence on whether they actually get into the market with any traction is very low.
 

pelov

Diamond Member
Dec 6, 2011
3,510
6
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PS. for the curious. the reason its mandated duopoly... AMD got their x86 license when they won a lawsuit against intel. Intel tried to use them as a second manufacturer for a deal with a major seller (which required there be at least 2 suppliers of each part)

Companies are not as willing to dive into an ISA and everything it entails if there's only 1 major provider. That could potentially put their entire business model at risk. Obviously there's still a long way from ARM making headway into servers (I believe they're currently at single digit % market share?), but it's still something that they'll think about.

15% performance bump is plenty generous. The performance increase we're seeing on tablets/smartphones right now is just to make up for what they actually lack, performance. What tricks does tablets/smartphones have? Bigger screen, higher resolution, more cores, slimmer, etc. A boring progression in terms of development of a newer product, and it is only a matter of time that these tricks run out of steam.

That's not what's happening. In fact, Intel, MS, Apple and nearly all the big OEMs are hedging their bets on mobile and not PCs. That doesn't mean PCs will be going away -- on the contrary. Somebody will always need to make the software on PCs; but to state that it's a fad is ridiculous. Consider smartphones, where they outsell PCs by a massive number. And that's just smartphones! Would you call that a fad? Really?

Oh goody. A whole year.

Time isn't in ARM's favor. The mobile market has a strong desire for higher performance, and this isn't ARM's comfort zone. It's Intel's territory. ARM would rather not go there if they can help it. Meanwhile Intel is very successfully lowering the power consumption of its designs. So ARM is being forced to fight an uphill battle, only to find a giant who's running down that same hill to destroy them.

People buy whole products, not processing power. If people wanted to buy processing power then the iPad would never have taken off, Intel wouldn't have bothered with Ultrabooks, they wouldn't be bothering with smartphones now, and MS would have went Medfield instead of Tegra.

I'd gladly take a 30% dip in CPU performance if it means I get much better WiFi range and consistency.
 

BenchPress

Senior member
Nov 8, 2011
392
0
0
So what exactly would you attribute the sharp decline in netbook sales to? Seeing as how netbooks were pretty much the only market Atom was successful in..
Apple. They managed to create devices with an overall better user experience than a netbook. This was due to things like touch screen technology, a good mobile OS, and a more desirable design. Although Intel didn't have the right product at the right time, I don't the use of ARM chips wasn't a primary factor in the demise of netbooks. ARM was benefiting more from the other qualities of Apple's products, than from its own, to stop Atom in its tracks.

The playing field is a lot more level now, and the CPU actually starts to be a determining factor. Intel is determined to deliver 14 nm chips for this stabilized mobile market sooner rather than later, and they'll most certainly have unprecedented performance/Watt. The binary compatibility with desktops/laptops won't hurt either as the mobile OS converges with it.
 

Exophase

Diamond Member
Apr 19, 2012
4,439
9
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Right, and Apple is using ARM, every Apple device sold is royalty money to ARM.. so if Apple stole market share from Intel how does this not count as ARM stealing market share from Intel?

Apple using ARM IP instead of an Intel SoC isn't arbitrary. ARM's business model allows what Apple needs, Intel's doesn't. End of story. It doesn't matter if ARM succeeds on the merits of its business model instead of one the merits of its designs, success is success.

And I'll bet you hard cash that 2014 iPads still won't be using Intel designed CPUs.
 

dma0991

Platinum Member
Mar 17, 2011
2,723
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That's not what's happening. In fact, Intel, MS, Apple and nearly all the big OEMs are hedging their bets on mobile and not PCs. That doesn't mean PCs will be going away -- on the contrary. Somebody will always need to make the software on PCs; but to state that it's a fad is ridiculous. Consider smartphones, where they outsell PCs by a massive number. And that's just smartphones! Would you call that a fad? Really?
They are not hedging 100% of their effort in improving smartphones/tablets are they? Intel is making Medfield but effort to develop desktop/server CPU still goes on. M$ didn't make W8 an OS exclusively for tablets alone. M$ still makes W8 for desktop albeit a terrible job. If Apple was staying true to Steve's post PC era mantra, then why are they announcing new iMac and MBP in their event?

Smartphones/tablets has its place as a secondary device to your bigger and much more versatile laptop/desktop. That won't change for a very long time. Performance aside, can a smartphone/tablet provide me with the cheap and easily expandable storage capacity that the desktop provides? Smartphones/tablets might outsell PCs but they will not replace it, at least not in my lifetime.

I didn't consider them a fad that would fade in time. It will just be another device besides a laptop/desktop that you would want to purchase. I don't think anyone would be willing to only use smartphones/tablets without at least owning one laptop or desktop.
 

mrmt

Diamond Member
Aug 18, 2012
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The ARM guys' R&D isn't additive among competitors in the space.

No, but part of Intel R&D is spent on foundries, that's why you must count at least TSMC R&D. Plus the bunch of ARM manufacturers gives feedback to ARM about performance, tweaks, and other things that comes in the next generation.

So while it isn't a simple addition, you also cannot take onlyu ARM spending.
 

BenchPress

Senior member
Nov 8, 2011
392
0
0
I have a fine sense of timescale. I have been listening to Intel proclaim they are right around the corner to break into these markets for several years now.
Those have always been half-assed attempts. Current Atoms are still based on the old architecture that was aimed at netbooks. It would have been wrong to have high expectations of that (but that doesn't have to stop Intel from proclaiming it to still be relevant). The real offensive has only been announced fairly recently; when they said to move to 14 nm for the mobile chips at the same time as the desktop chips, and to bring new architectures at a tick-tock pace. These are the real game changers you should have been listening to.
I have no doubt they will deliver what they believe to be a product to get into the market. But my confidence on whether they actually get into the market with any traction is very low.
That still shows you have bad timing. Your expectations where too high when nothing was changing, and now that things really are about to change you've lost confidence. You really shouldn't let personal expectations and confidence based on the past, interfere with technological facts.
 

ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
20,378
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Come on tablet and smartphone growth is through the roof while Intels desktop dvision saw an 8% drop year on year. AMD saw a 9% drop.

Smartphones mainly replace old style phones. And people need up upgrade smartphones all the time due to their cons. Not to mention rapidly increasing the price. Kinda opposite of what you expect.

Specially Nokia, the biggest cellphone maker is feeling this.


344186-nielsen-smartphones-vs-feature-phones.jpg


You can most likely plot a somewhat similar graph for HDs vs SSDs. Its just not useful way in measure growth in the segment. It just means people replaced product A with product B.

People only want to focus on a few success stories like Qualcomm, Apple and Samsung. But they forget Nokia, TI etc in the same run.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technolo...-quadruple-as-smartphone-sales-fall-34pc.html

Its easy to manipulate ARM to seem much more successful than it is.

And in ARMs case, they mainly benefit from phone makers going from 1 core to 2 or 4 cores. ARM gets payed per core, not per CPU.
 
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BenchPress

Senior member
Nov 8, 2011
392
0
0
People buy whole products, not processing power. If people wanted to buy processing power then the iPad would never have taken off, Intel wouldn't have bothered with Ultrabooks, they wouldn't be bothering with smartphones now, and MS would have went Medfield instead of Tegra.

I'd gladly take a 30% dip in CPU performance if it means I get much better WiFi range and consistency.
Absolutely. But those factors are levelling out. The iPhone used to be better than any other phone in just about every aspect. Its success can't be attributed to ARM. Today there's fierce competition between mobile phones, and the CPU is setting them apart a lot more than before.

ARM just happened to be at the right place at the right time to benefit from this new mobile market. And I don't mean that makes it undeserved or anything. I'm just saying that in the future they'll inevitably have to face Intel at pure technological prowess, meaning they'll almost certainly lose the market dominance they have today.
 

pelov

Diamond Member
Dec 6, 2011
3,510
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Absolutely. But those factors are levelling out. The iPhone used to be better than any other phone in just about every aspect. Its success can't be attributed to ARM. Today there's fierce competition between mobile phones, and the CPU is setting them apart a lot more than before.

ARM just happened to be at the right place at the right time to benefit from this new mobile market. And I don't mean that makes it undeserved or anything. I'm just saying that in the future they'll inevitably have to face Intel at pure technological prowess, meaning they'll almost certainly lose the market dominance they have today.

I think what benefits ARM over x86 atm is the flexibility. If a company -- let's take Apple -- decides that they need something specific, they can't really approach Intel to make it for them. Intel can't afford to make specific x86 products for any one company in particular. It would be far too time consuming and there wouldn't be enough money in it. ARM gets by that, essentially saying "go for it."

It's definitely going to be an interesting 3-4 years. There's going to be consolidation in the ARM space and Intel will either have a good foothold in mobile or they'll be relegated to a smaller market share.

I can tell you that the current trend of opting to make the entire device, à la Apple and Amazon, means these companies would much rather buy into ARM and make their own cores and SoCs than buy into x86.
 

mrmt

Diamond Member
Aug 18, 2012
3,974
0
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If the only other big x86 chip maker is willing to deviate from x86 and dive into ARM, do we really want to look toward x86 as a long term platform?

Where the performance isn't needed, that's going to suddenly be a tougher sell for Intel


From time to time I hear this talk about how Intel would be sore from AMD leaving to the ARM camp. I think that AMD fans don't know the place the company occupies in the food chain.

Since the beginning AMD wasn't relevant to x86 at all, they were just a second source for Intel processors, an architecture that was invented and improved by Intel. They didn't really develop processors, they were always cut-and-paste from Intel processors manufactured on a foundry process acquired from Motorola. Just after some judge decided that a x86 monopoly wouldn't be a good idea was that AMD got its license, but they had to develop their own microcode from now on.

Fast forwarding for the 2000's, for brief 5 years AMD enjoyed a relevant spot on x86, and it wasn't due to their merits, as most of the Athlon processor was tech acquired from DEC, and developed by former DEC employees. For a few years it could push some innovations on x86 ISA, but they are done with it and are back to where they always have been, a lower-tier second source of x86 processors.

What if AMD quits x86 tomorrow. Will it hurt Intel? Not at all. First AMD is so behind in the tech curve that they are not pushing innovation at all on x86, second Intel 100mm processors got so high performance that the company simply has capacity to spare. In fact, it would be a blessing for Intel, because instead of revenue coming for AMD to help them to post losses, it would come to improve Intel high margins and factories utilization even if Intel kept the same prices now.

Would it benefit ARM? Not at all. AMD is a nobody in the ARM world and a nobody^2 in the low-power environment, the envelope where ARM excels, plus its volumes pale in comparison to Qualcomm, Apple and Samsung. Graphics IP isn't a big deal either. There are Mali, Tegra, Apple, Adreno and PowerVR on that space already, and I don't see too much that Radeon could bring to the ARM ecosystem that the others already didn't or couldn't without great efforts.

So your statements fails on a lot of points. First AMD wasn't fundamentally relevant for x86, as it did exist and can exist without AMD without problems at all, second AMD isn't a big player in the x86 market, it is a second, marginal, almost insignificant player on the x86 market. Third is that Intel is aggressively shifting to low power.

ARM won't face the crippled Atom in 2013, but a very low power redesigned OoO chip built on 22nm cutting edge process, and by 2014 or 2015 a refresh on 14nm, well ahead of the other foundries. In the higher end, there will be Haswell at 10W in 2013 and you can bet that Broadwell and Skylake are going further down in the power ladder. It is in 2014 that we will have a clearer picture of who will preponderate where, when Intel x86 and ARM will clash at the 2-8W envelope.

As for AMD? They have not the R&D to go with Intel in the power ladder, and neither the cash to differentiate themselves from the other ARM manufactures. The alternative that everyone is expecting, ARM cores with AMD GPU for GPGPU will fail, not only because it won't be able to sustain the company, because they will have to match Nvidia and its project Denver, which is a project better funded and cooked by far more time, and with MUCH more software support than AMD ever provided.
 

pelov

Diamond Member
Dec 6, 2011
3,510
6
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From time to time I hear this talk about how Intel would be sore from AMD leaving to the ARM camp. I think that AMD fans don't know the place the company occupies in the food chain.

Since the beginning AMD wasn't relevant to x86 at all, they were just a second source for Intel processors, an architecture that was invented and improved by Intel.

Aaaaand then there was AMD64.

While Intel was busy fumbling about with RISC and HP clapping happily along, thinking they'd make more money than they'd know what to do with, AMD quite literally saved Intel's a__ and made x86 relevant for the server again.

People don't willingly buy into monopolies. Corporations are also generally smarter than your average idiot. If they see that the x86 space is being courted to by a single chip maker, then they're also well aware that that means higher prices and more risk.

There's a reason x86 never had just a single license holder. I'm sure you can figure out why
 

Lonyo

Lifer
Aug 10, 2002
21,938
6
81
Smartphones mainly replace old style phones. And people need up upgrade smartphones all the time due to their cons. Not to mention rapidly increasing the price. Kinda opposite of what you expect.

Specially Nokia, the biggest cellphone maker is feeling this.

You can most likely plot a somewhat similar graph for HDs vs SSDs. Its just not useful way in measure growth in the segment. It just means people replaced product A with product B.

People only want to focus on a few success stories like Qualcomm, Apple and Samsung. But they forget Nokia, TI etc in the same run.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technolo...-quadruple-as-smartphone-sales-fall-34pc.html

Its easy to manipulate ARM to seem much more successful than it is.

And in ARMs case, they mainly benefit from phone makers going from 1 core to 2 or 4 cores. ARM gets payed per core, not per CPU.

Do you have any actual evidence for that?
Considering also that (AFAIK) some licensees license the ISA in order to make whatever they want, and therefore don't (I think) pay a per-product fee at all, I am included to believe that you are just saying something for the same of saying it.
I would anticipate that the licensing terms ARM has with partners vary significantly, and there's nothing like a one size fits all per-core licensing fee at all.

They may report revenues per core shipped or similar metrics, but that doesn't mean licensing would be based on a per core system.


Edit: Per ARM themselves:
The companies who choose ARM technology pay an up-front licence fee to gain access to a design. They incorporate the ARM technology into their chip – a process that often takes 3–4 years. When the chip starts to ship, ARM receives a royalty on every chip that uses the design. Typically our royalty is based on the price of the chip.
 
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Khato

Golden Member
Jul 15, 2001
1,390
496
136

Yup, and they're projecting a decline in Q4 revenue of 7.6% to 9.3% while Intel's expecting relatively flat revenue no?

TSMC said as the global integrated circuit sector is undergoing inventory adjustments, the company's sales for the fourth quarter are expected to range between NT$129 billion and NT$131 billion, down about 8 percent from the third quarter.
 

pelov

Diamond Member
Dec 6, 2011
3,510
6
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It varies.

ARM Ltd does not manufacture or sell CPU devices based on its own designs, but rather, licenses the processor architecture to interested parties. ARM offers a variety of licensing terms, varying in cost and deliverables. To all licensees, ARM provides an integratable hardware description of the ARM core, as well as complete software development toolset (compiler, debugger, SDK), and the right to sell manufactured silicon containing the ARM CPU.
Fabless licensees, who wish to integrate an ARM core into their own chip design, are usually only interested in acquiring a ready-to-manufacture verified IP core. For these customers, ARM delivers a gate netlist description of the chosen ARM core, along with an abstracted simulation model and test programs to aid design integration and verification. More ambitious customers, including integrated device manufacturers (IDM) and foundry operators, choose to acquire the processor IP in synthesizable RTL (Verilog) form. With the synthesizable RTL, the customer has the ability to perform architectural level optimisations and extensions. This allows the designer to achieve exotic design goals not otherwise possible with an unmodified netlist (high clock speed, very low power consumption, instruction set extensions, etc.). While ARM does not grant the licensee the right to resell the ARM architecture itself, licensees may freely sell manufactured product (chip devices, evaluation boards, complete systems, etc.). Merchant foundries can be a special case; not only are they allowed to sell finished silicon containing ARM cores, they generally hold the right to re-manufacture ARM cores for other customers.
Like most IP vendors, ARM prices its IP based on perceived value. In architectural terms, lower performing ARM cores command lower license costs than higher performing cores. In implementation terms, a synthesizable core costs more than a hard macro (blackbox) core. Complicating price matters, a merchant foundry which holds an ARM license (such as Samsung and Fujitsu) can offer reduced licensing costs to its fab customers. In exchange for acquiring the ARM core through the foundry's in-house design services, the customer can reduce or eliminate payment of ARM's upfront license fee. Compared to dedicated semiconductor foundries (such as TSMC and UMC) without in-house design services, Fujitsu/Samsung charge 2 to 3 times more per manufactured wafer. For low to mid volume applications, a design service foundry offers lower overall pricing (through subsidisation of the license fee). For high volume mass produced parts, the long term cost reduction achievable through lower wafer pricing reduces the impact of ARM's NRE (Non-Recurring Engineering) costs, making the dedicated foundry a better choice.
Many semiconductor or IC design firms hold ARM licenses: Analog Devices, AppliedMicro, Atmel, Broadcom, Cirrus Logic, Energy Micro, Faraday Technology, Freescale, Fujitsu, Intel (through its settlement with Digital Equipment Corporation), IBM, Infineon Technologies, Marvell Technology Group, Nintendo, Nvidia, NXP Semiconductors, OKI, Qualcomm, Samsung, Sharp, STMicroelectronics, and Texas Instruments are some of the many companies who have licensed the ARM in one form or another.
[edit]Approximate licensing costs
ARM's 2006 annual report and accounts state that royalties totalling £88.7 million ($164.1 million) were the result of licensees shipping 2.45 billion units.[38] This is equivalent to £0.036 ($0.067) per unit shipped. However, this is averaged across all cores, including expensive new cores and inexpensive older cores.
In the same year ARM's licensing revenues for processor cores were £65.2 million (US$119.5 million),[39] in a year when 65 processor licenses were signed,[40] an average of £1 million ($1.84 million) per license. Again, this is averaged across both new and old cores.
Given that ARM's 2006 income from processor cores was approximately 60% from royalties and 40% from licenses, ARM makes the equivalent of £0.06 ($0.11) per unit shipped including both royalties and licenses. However, as one-off licenses are typically bought for new technologies, unit sales (and hence royalties) are dominated by more established products. Hence, the figures above do not reflect the true costs of any single ARM product.

We're talking pennies per product compared to the inflated cost of x86.
 

Olikan

Platinum Member
Sep 23, 2011
2,023
275
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Yup, and they're projecting a decline in Q4 revenue of 7.6% to 9.3% while Intel's expecting relatively flat revenue no?

TSMC said it would be a decline in q3, and got a record q3

i mean....LOL, so much fail
 

mrmt

Diamond Member
Aug 18, 2012
3,974
0
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While Intel was busy fumbling about with RISC and HP clapping happily along, thinking they'd make more money than they'd know what to do with, AMD quite literally saved Intel's a__ and made x86 relevant for the server again.

Saved Intel from what? In case you don't remember around 2000 Intel chips of the time didn't pack enough punch to sit on all type of servers as they do now and memory above 4GB was mostly for high end servers, far above the performance levels of the x86 cores of the time. Sure, they wanted to kill x86 because they wanted to get rid of the bunch of legacy stuff included in the architecture, and failed. But what if AMD did not exist, what would Intel do? Simply develop an x64 extension (I think we can agree that Intel has enough resources to do that) and start to make chips with it, a bit sooner, a bit later, but they would.

People don't willingly buy into monopolies. Corporations are also generally smarter than your average idiot. If they see that the x86 space is being courted to by a single chip maker, then they're also well aware that that means higher prices and more risk.

People don't buy monopoly? Then why do people buy the iPhone? The iPhone is an Apple monopoly, nobody else can manufacture it. What about Windows? Or, but it's just the average Joe? What about the R/3, can you just go out and buy a second-source version of the R/3 if you are done with SAP? No, you can't.

Do you have any idea what Intellectual property means? It is *exactly* a monopoly. Once you fill a patent and it is accepted nobody can build a product around your idea, just you.

People usually confounds a monopoly of products that can compete with alternative product such as a PC architecture with another, like x86, DEC and PowerPC, with fuel for cars or a diamond mine, in which no matter what I do I'll have to deal with the monopolist. They are very different from an economic and juridical POV.
 

BenchPress

Senior member
Nov 8, 2011
392
0
0
Right, and Apple is using ARM, every Apple device sold is royalty money to ARM.. so if Apple stole market share from Intel how does this not count as ARM stealing market share from Intel?
Because it's not ARM who has done the stealing. If the iPad was ugly and had a cumbersome input method and shitty software, ARM wouldn't have saved it in any way.

So ARM's market share growth is only superficial. Sure, it's there for now, but it's not sustainable. There's no underlying technological advantages that will allow ARM to keep its position.
Apple using ARM IP instead of an Intel SoC isn't arbitrary. ARM's business model allows what Apple needs, Intel's doesn't. End of story. It doesn't matter if ARM succeeds on the merits of its business model instead of one the merits of its designs, success is success.
Here's the problem. If the mobile market is actually highly lucrative and it affects Intel's bottom line, they can and will adjust their business model to the market's needs. ARM on the other hand cannot ever get to the same level as Intel on the technological front.

Things are changing in Intel's favor on both aspects.
And I'll bet you hard cash that 2014 iPads still won't be using Intel designed CPUs.
So, coins instead of notes? :sneaky:

Seriously now, I don't think iPads will use Intel chips by then either. But I do expect the competition to deliver some worthy devices with Windows 8 capable of running a range of desktop applications. And that means ARM's superficial market lead starts to crumble. Apple is slowly but surely losing its dominant grip on the form factors they first introduced.
 

pelov

Diamond Member
Dec 6, 2011
3,510
6
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Here's the problem. If the mobile market is actually highly lucrative and it affects Intel's bottom line, they can and will adjust their business model to the market's needs

If we're to judge by their Ultrabook response, then no. If we're to judge by Medfield's pricing, then maybe/yes.

Intel is definitely sending mixed signals, though. On one side, they're willing to package a decent SoC and offer it for a good price, yet in the Ultrabook space they're willing to do anything humanly possible to avoid dropping the price on their processors (and thus screwing their OEMs) even as they face very poor sales and adaptation.

Seriously now, I don't think iPads will use Intel chips by then either. But I do expect the competition to deliver some worthy devices with Windows 8 capable of running a range of desktop applications. And that means ARM's superficial market lead starts to crumble. Apple is slowly but surely losing its dominant grip on the form factors they first introduced.

The same Microsoft that's copying Apple's business motto? I'd be surprised if Microsoft don't make their own SoCs in 2-3 years.

Intel needs to quit relying on Microsoft. It's the same reason Intel is predicting another crappy quarter during a time when their sales should be booming; right after a Windows release
 
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BenchPress

Senior member
Nov 8, 2011
392
0
0
I think what benefits ARM over x86 atm is the flexibility. If a company -- let's take Apple -- decides that they need something specific, they can't really approach Intel to make it for them. Intel can't afford to make specific x86 products for any one company in particular. It would be far too time consuming and there wouldn't be enough money in it. ARM gets by that, essentially saying "go for it."
That was absolutely ARM's major advantage at the time the iPhone and iPad were conceived. Apple needed that flexibility to execute its vision of these new devices, at a time when others were too sceptical that it would succeed to invest in it themselves.

However, that situation has changed dramatically, and continues to change. We have a pretty good idea of what a smart phone and a tablet should look and feel like now. And there's real profit to be made. So it's becoming a stable market, just like the PC market, where the technical requirements are well understood. So Intel can soon dominate these markets with just a handful of products. They don't have to specifically design things for Apple. Everyone needs largely the same things.
It's definitely going to be an interesting 3-4 years. There's going to be consolidation in the ARM space and Intel will either have a good foothold in mobile or they'll be relegated to a smaller market share.
Intel is the largest semiconductor company in the world. And this size gives them a considerable advantage in being able to stay ahead of everyone else in process technology as well as design. I'd love to root for the little guys, but frankly it's inconceivable that all those smart engineers and business people at Intel would let this slip and make them lose market share.
I can tell you that the current trend of opting to make the entire device, à la Apple and Amazon, means these companies would much rather buy into ARM and make their own cores and SoCs than buy into x86.
The problem is that making your own cores is very expensive compared to picking an off-the-shelf product. And the potential benefit from doing it is rapidly diminishing. Furthermore, soon Intel will offer a crushing advantage in performance/Watt. This will leave them no choice but to buy into x86.
 

ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
20,378
146
106
Do you have any actual evidence for that?
Considering also that (AFAIK) some licensees license the ISA in order to make whatever they want, and therefore don't (I think) pay a per-product fee at all, I am included to believe that you are just saying something for the same of saying it.
I would anticipate that the licensing terms ARM has with partners vary significantly, and there's nothing like a one size fits all per-core licensing fee at all.

They may report revenues per core shipped or similar metrics, but that doesn't mean licensing would be based on a per core system.


Edit: Per ARM themselves:

http://hexus.net/business/news/components/42929-arm-profits-rise-23-per-cent/

More cores = more royalties
ARM has been canny in growing royalty payments, the report states that “ARM's average royalty revenue per chip in Q2 2012 was 4.8 cents, up from 4.5 cents one year ago”. Main contributors to the increase are the growing popularity of multi-core chips and higher royalties charged for Cortex-A and Mali graphics processors, both growing in popularity.