My thoughts on Broncos vs. Colts, especially in the context of the Broncos probably meeting the Seahawks in the Super Bowl again, and assuming the Colts and Packers are about equal in strength:
Denver playcalling was lackluster. Too many passes into too much coverage. Too many near interceptions. Too many times sending Montee Ball right into the lions' den, even after it was clear that wasn't working. (Ball actually did well...his poor YPA was not his fault.) We copied the Percy Harvin sweep, and it did well, but we only ran it once. Why? Seahawk playcalling is more creative and makes better use of their roster.
Seahawks play with a lot more fire, which multiplies their talent edge.
Broncos won the turnover battle, but almost didn't. One of our grabs from Luck was very close, and the Colts dropped at least two Manning passes early which probably should have been INTs. One or two of those goes a different way, and the Broncos lose this game, even though the Colts are clearly not as talented.
Manning did finally scramble, and he would have gotten a first down if it hadn't been called back. Even if you just get three yards and slide, even if your QB is 85 years old, I think he has to scramble here and there, or a major threat is removed. A threat which the Colts, Packers, and Seahawks can constantly hold over their opponents' heads.
Basically what it comes down to is, I'm not sold on the Broncos coaching staff. Not against the Seahawks in the big game. Seahawks are more dangerous in too many ways, and the way the Broncos played against the Colts, we would lose again. Maybe not 43-8, but 36-16 looks very realistic.