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Are the Republicans setting themselves up for failure post-November?

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WP. The message I got from the R side of the fence was one of fear, this will create death panels, turn our democracy into a socialist republic and many other untruths shouted endlessly (see Boehner during the last debate) to create fear and pandemonium.
 
Sheik Yerbouti said:
I'm just quietly waiting for the centrist leaning R's to say "Well, I always thought the HCR was a good idea, just not in it's present form. I was for it before I was told to be against it, but now it looks like a good idea"
Or something along those lines to cover the shit stain tracks they left behind them.
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LOL!! Good one!!!
 
Carmen813 said:
If current polling trends continue Republicans may be setting themselves up for failure pre-November.
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I've been saying that all along. All the false attacks and outright lying emails they've been circulating has been nothing short of disgusting. Well, they always were the types who thought the ends justified the means. I think if health care reform doesn't work they will be scapegoated by the voters even worse then the Dems. After all, at least the Dem's tried, all the GOP did was obstruct, lie, obstruct, and then lie some more.

Payback will be a bitch and I think any savy politician realizes this.
 
nobodyknows said:
I've been saying that all along. All the false attacks and outright lying emails they've been circulating has been nothing short of disgusting. Well, they always were the types who thought the ends justified the means. I think if health care reform doesn't work they will be scapegoated by the voters even worse then the Dems. After all, at least the Dem's tried, all the GOP did was obstruct, lie, obstruct, and then lie some more.

Payback will be a bitch and I think any savy politician realizes this.
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In all likelihood they will gain seats in November, probably 25-35 in the house and 3-6 in the Senate.

I don't personally believe a 'repeal and redo' type of platform will work very well. It's really going to depend on the quality of the candidates. The other thing is fund raising, the RNCC is not doing well right now in terms of actually having the money it needs to compete in all the areas that are toss-ups.
 
Carmen813 said:
In all likelihood they will gain seats in November, probably 25-35 in the house and 3-6 in the Senate.
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If I remember correctly, in the last century the party in control of the presidency has lost an average of 26 seats in the house in each mid-term election. The average senate loss is about 3-4 seats. Your numbers are pretty much repeating history.

But, do note that the first midterm election tends to be nicer for the presidential party. Those historical numbers are closer to 17 house seats and 1 senate seat lost. It depends a lot on redistricting, number of retiring congressmen, etc. Real Clear Politics is estimating +7 GOP senators and +16 house (but there are many tossups there).

I'm going to go out on a limb and estimate 15 house losses and 5 senate losses, but there is still a lot of time between now and November. So, I reserve the right to change my mind.
 
Carmen813 said:
In all likelihood they will gain seats in November, probably 25-35 in the house and 3-6 in the Senate.

I don't personally believe a 'repeal and redo' type of platform will work very well. It's really going to depend on the quality of the candidates. The other thing is fund raising, the RNCC is not doing well right now in terms of actually having the money it needs to compete in all the areas that are toss-ups.
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dullard said:
If I remember correctly, in the last century the party in control of the presidency has lost an average of 26 seats in the house in each mid-term election. The average senate loss is about 3-4 seats. Your numbers are pretty much repeating history.

But, do note that the first midterm election tends to be nicer for the presidential party. Those historical numbers are closer to 17 house seats and 1 senate seat lost. It depends a lot on redistricting, number of retiring congressmen, etc. Real Clear Politics is estimating +7 GOP senators and +16 house (but there are many tossups there).

I'm going to go out on a limb and estimate 15 house losses and 5 senate losses, but there is still a lot of time between now and November. So, I reserve the right to change my mind.
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Interesting. I just have to think that a lot of what happens will depend on how many D's and R's happen to be up for reelection this year. Anything can happen, i.e. Bush getting reelected so there are too many variables to make anysolid predictions... but I still feel the Dem's have the edge. This health care reform issue is like a war and if things start going well for Obama the D's could get on a roll.

What issues do the R's have besdies that? The economy is doing fairly well despite the naysayers and the bungeling of the previous administration. I'm not sure what the R's can say there? There the illegal immigrtation issue and what to do about it, but then again, Bush and the GOP sat on their asses enjoying thebenifits of the cheap labor so how do they make that an issue without reminding everyone of what a bunch of lyhing hipocrits they are?

It will be interesting.
 
I somewhat agree with Nobodyknow, six months can be an eternity in politics, and that is about what we have left until the 11/2010 mid term elections.

Meanwhile many external of internal events will happen that may credit or discredit Obama and the Democrats. Meanwhile Obama and the democrats are way behind in getting much of their agenda through congress.

That and the fact that many American vote their wallets. I think many American still blame GWB and the GOP for the economic meltdown and give Obama some credit for containing the damage, because it could have been far worse. But if the stalled economy picks up before November/2010, its gonna be bad news for the R's. If not, its gonna hurt the D's.

As for the R's, they don't seem to have learned a thing since 2004 when their policies started laying giant eggs on domestic and foreign policy.

But only time will tell where the American electorate is come 11/2010.
 
Never has major social welfare legislation been overturned. Republican only tried once and it took a Democrat to do, sorta do it, in 1994. Republicans only hope is fiscal bankruptcy. Even socialists (real ones) in Greece are slashing major social welfare with their insolvency.

Lucky for them it's just around the corner. Does not matter who gets elected every elected government becomes more spend thrift from the days of its founding until it collapses due to people voting themselves too many entitlements and obligations. Happens every-time. This Government will collapse fiscally - then after a period of anarchy a new government will arise - very small and conservative - established by people who fear what went wrong with the last one. But as generations pass they end up repeating the mistake again. Rinse and repeat fourth tuning and all that.. Somewhere in the middle, between the time of conservative founding and prodigious spending is probably ideal. Balance.
 
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The other thing to say is that the GOP really have no real spokesperson, and because 2010 is mid-term election they don't necessarily need one.

But come 2012, the GOP will need a respected leader to unite them. Which is the current GOP dilemma now split into the radical right and the moderate wings where most of the GOP votes are. The GOP 2008 problem was, their nominee, McCain, was acceptable to GOP moderates, but failed to excite the radical right of the GOP. Palin could have repaired that damage, but because she was such a brainless and immature spokeswoman, she alienated the GOP moderates.

Scanning the GOP horizon, I fail to see someone who can be such a articulate and credible spokesperson for GOP ideas without sounding like a re run of gridlock. Hence any GOP Congressional or Senate member fails to qualify. Jindel took a stab at it and flubbed it, maybe Pawlenti of Minnesota, but the American people have had a belly full of the old GOP talking points, they did not work for GWB governance, they did not work for McCain/Palin, and the only voting block those talking points work for is the radical right of the GOP. And the size of that voting block is only about 25% of the nation, leaving the GOP 25% short of enough votes to win general elections.
 
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New USA Today poll out.

Support for the newly signed HCR bill is now 49% for, 40% against. That's a huge swing in favor of the bill and the Democrats.

Congrats Obama.
 
Lemon law said:
Meanwhile Obama and the democrats are way behind in getting much of their agenda through congress.
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I'm just curious, what is the appropriate timeline for promises? If a president makes a campaign promise, how long should he/she be given to make good on that promise? One month? One year? Until the midterms? Until the next presidential election? Until the maximum possible eight years are up?

As it stands, Obama has made good on ~19% of his promises (using this gauge), but he is 29% of the way through his first term. No president has ever gotten all of his promises though.
 
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Maybe a good question dullard, but to some extent a question impossible to answer.

And maybe its a perception problem, in terms of playing the blame game, I think Obama has tried very hard to fulfill most of his campaign promises, but if the congress will not go along, its still defaults to having a President and not a dictator.

And credit or discredit where its due, the GOP is in total gridlock opposition, so any bill takes a 60 vote super majority to pass the Senate.
 
I HIGHLY doubt they will get a majority. Certainly not a 2/3rd, that is never gonna happen.

November I really cannot predict now. There is truth and then there is the truth you tell people, the one they vote on. Who knows what lies and bullsh*t both sides will spew for the next round.

This is as hard to read as the stock market.
 
dullard said:
I'm just curious, what is the appropriate timeline for promises?
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How about, until people forget they were made? Personally, I don't believe them when they're made, so I don't wait around for them to happen. Sure, some come true, but most don't.
 
Mursilis said:
How about, until people forget they were made? Personally, I don't believe them when they're made, so I don't wait around for them to happen. Sure, some come true, but most don't.
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I can't find it at the moment, but there was a website that listed the percent of promises that came true. I think most presidents were in the 70%-80% range. I think you should revise your thinking regarding how many come true.
 
2010 is going to be referendum on health care reform. If democrats keep majority, it's a mandate to pass the public option.
 
dullard said:
I can't find it at the moment, but there was a website that listed the percent of promises that came true. I think most presidents were in the 70%-80% range. I think you should revise your thinking regarding how many come true.
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I'd be more willing to accept that number if the whole business weren't so subjective, both as to what the promise actually was, and whether it was fulfilled.
 
Darwin333 said:
Can't they just defund it? Power of the pursestrings and all that jazz.
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Its already been discussed in the thread.

1) The President still has to sign the budget which he can reject if its not to his liking.
2) The funding would only be for the current year and not future years.
3) From dullard's post:
That, and the US government is spending very little in the first few years. If they set the numbers to $0 in 2011 this will happen:

* Doctors/surgeons will not get 10% bonuses through medicare.
* Small businesses will not get health care tax credits.
* Medicare patients will not get preventative plan service.
* Medicare patients who spend over $2700 on drugs will not get a $250 rebate.
* Large pharmaceutical companies will not pay fees.
* Tanning companies will not pay tax.
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