Are Japan and China edging closer to war?

DucatiMonster696

Diamond Member
Aug 13, 2009
4,269
1
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This is an interesting story developing in Asia with Japan and China both basically feuding over islands which are pretty much worthless in terms of natural resources. However there are a few voices out there from some people who say that historically when ever there has been a global economic crises and the confidence of nations, their currencies and debt solvency have been shaken (Japan is basically 1 Quadrillion Yen in debt and inflation has grown well beyond what the new nationalist and militant government has projected) these events have a trend toward leading to major regional, if not global conflict(s) in the world.

Those who espouse this view point to WW2 which was proceeded by the Great Depression (which hit most of the world along side the US) as an example of a period of time in which economic unraveling of nations had lead up to a culminating conflict between nations. Of course we'll have to wait and see how this develops and hopefully cooler heads prevail but I can see the logic behind the view of economic global turmoil being the catalyst and precursor for future wars between nations.

http://news.yahoo.com/japan-talk-warning-shots-heats-china-dispute-051924041.html


TOKYO (AP) — Japan says it may fire warning shots and take other measures to keep foreign aircraft from violating its airspace in the latest verbal blast between Tokyo and Beijing that raises concerns that a dispute over hotly contested islands could spin out of control.

Japanese officials made the comments after Chinese fighters tailed its warplanes near the islands recently. The incident is believed to be the first scrambling of Chinese fighters since the tensions began to rise last spring.
According to Chinese media, a pair of J-10 fighters was scrambled after Japanese F-15s began tailing a Chinese surveillance plane near the disputed islands in the East China Sea. China has complained the surveillance flight did not violate Japanese airspace and the F-15s were harassing it.

It was the first time the Chinese media has reported fighters being mobilized to respond to Japanese air force activity in the area and comes amid what Japan says is a rapid intensification of Chinese air force activity around the islands, where Japanese and Chinese coast guard ships have squared off for months.

Though there have been no outright clashes, the increased sea and air operations have fueled worries that the situation could spin out of control.

Such concerns have grown over official comments suggesting new Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his Cabinet are considering the use of "tracer" fire as a means of responding to airspace incursions. Tracer rounds are designed to burn brightly to get the attention of a pilot who may have missed other warnings due to a radio malfunction, while also indicating that the aircraft firing them is prepared to take further action.

"Every country has procedures for how to deal with a violation of its territory that continues after multiple cautionary measures," Japanese Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera said Wednesday when asked if tracer shots would be fired against intruding aircraft that refuse to change course. "We have response measures ready that are consistent with global standards."
Onodera said the use of warning shots has long been provided for under Japan's defense policies and is widely accepted under international rules of engagement. Japan's air force has not actually resorted to them since 1987 — against a Soviet aircraft — and none were fired last week.

But Chinese and Japanese media have suggested Tokyo is publicly floating the possibility to test China's reaction. The escalation of tensions has worried the United States, with Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton saying Friday that while the U.S. doesn't take a position on who has sovereignty over the islands, it opposes "any unilateral actions that would seek to undermine Japanese administration."

That brought a sharp retort from the Chinese Foreign Ministry on Sunday. The comments "ignore the facts" that the islands are China's inherent territory, spokesman Qin Gang said in a statement that urged the U.S. to adopt "a responsible attitude."
In Beijing last week, a Foreign Ministry spokesman said China is on "high alert" and suggested Japan is escalating the tensions over the islands, called the Diaoyu in China and the Senkaku in Japan. Taiwan also claims the small isles, which are uninhabited but may be surrounded by valuable underwater natural resources.

"Chinese planes and ships are exercising normal jurisdiction in the waters and airspace surrounding the Diaoyu Islands," spokesman Hong Lei said. "We are opposed to the operations of Japan's planes and ships, which violate our rights around Diaoyu. We are on high alert against this escalation."

As is often the case, Chinese media quoted military academics with a much more fiery response. "Japan's desire to fire tracer warning shots as a way of frightening the Chinese is nothing but a joke that shows the stupidity, cruelty and failure to understand their own limitations," Maj. Gen. Peng Guangqian of the Chinese Academy of Military Sciences was quoted as saying by the China News Service and other state media.

"Firing tracer bullets is a type of provocation; it's firing the first shot," he said. "Were Japan to dare to fire tracers, which is to say fire the first shot, then China wouldn't stint on responding and not allow them to fire the second shot."
Peng said Japan may have put out the report to generate discussion and gauge China's response.
___
Associated Press writer Christopher Bodeen contributed to this report from Beijing.
 
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Dari

Lifer
Oct 25, 2002
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A miscalculation is a very real possibility in this case. Japan has tried to cool this issue in spite of provocations from within its own borders and from China. The problem with China is, unlike a normal country, there are many organs of the government that act independently of each other. You have the Oceanic surveillance, Chinese Navy, the Chinese province that is closest to these islands, the Defence Ministry, and others that do as they please depending upon their connections in the Chinese apparatus. They don't communicate with each other well. Add the fact that China feels it has been wronged (these islands belonged to Okinawa before Japan annexed Okinawa) and it deserves these islands (as well as all of the South China seas) and this big baby is testing the resolve of others. But, looking at how the Japanese view territory, the government in Tokyo will never back down, no matter what. China also cannot back down because it has an unelected government that has to answer to the wishes of the people in other ways, namely via economic and nationalistic means.

So, yeah, China is about to learn that it cannot boss other countries around. Seeing as to how they insist on ratcheting up this crisis in order to dare the Japanese side to respond, they are both aggressive and afraid. I don't think this will end well.
 

Dari

Lifer
Oct 25, 2002
17,133
38
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The terrible thing about Chinese governance is that the organs that the rest of the world governments would communicate with directly to resolve this issue peacefully are not in the all-powerful State Council. These are the Foreign Ministry and Defense Ministry. What's laughable is that the Defense Ministry does not control the country's military (it exists mainly to interact with foreign governments). That is controlled by the (Communist) Party Central Military Commission. The government is basically an interlocking group of clans and interests.

http://forums.anandtech.com/showpost.php?p=34487243&postcount=20
 

DucatiMonster696

Diamond Member
Aug 13, 2009
4,269
1
71
A miscalculation is a very real possibility in this case. Japan has tried to cool this issue in spite of provocations from within its own borders and from China. The problem with China is, unlike a normal country, there are many organs of the government that act independently of each other. You have the Oceanic surveillance, Chinese Navy, the Chinese province that is closest to these islands, the Defence Ministry, and others that do as they please depending upon their connections in the Chinese apparatus. They don't communicate with each other well. Add the fact that China feels it has been wronged (these islands belonged to Okinawa before Japan annexed Okinawa) and it deserves these islands (as well as all of the South China seas) and this big baby is testing the resolve of others. But, looking at how the Japanese view territory, the government in Tokyo will never back down, no matter what. China also cannot back down because it has an unelected government that has to answer to the wishes of the people in other ways, namely via economic and nationalistic means.

So, yeah, China is about to learn that it cannot boss other countries around. Seeing as to how they insist on ratcheting up this crisis in order to dare the Japanese side to respond, they are both aggressive and afraid. I don't think this will end well.


There are also a few more issue to this problem in that the current Japanese government is not helping the situation. They basically won political power by promoting a nationalist and militant agenda which historically has resonated with the Japanese people especially now due to the economic decline of their nation.

In addition Japan is not a resource rich nation and they have to import most of the resources they use in their economy which means they have to be on the defensive against the growing influence and power of the new dominate big boy on the block, aka China. Furthermore China and the Chinese people (along with almost all of Asia) have no great love for Japanese people due to the past atrocities committed during WW2 of which Japan has not fully accepted or acknowledge. In the end I hope this does not escalate but given the animosity held by both sides and the economic issues at play I have a nagging gut feeling that conflict will arise later on down the road if not presently between both of these nations.
 
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Dari

Lifer
Oct 25, 2002
17,133
38
91
There are also a few more issue to this problem in that the current Japanese government is not helping the situation. They basically won political power by promoting a nationalist and militant agenda which historically has resonated with the Japanese people especially now due to the economic decline of their nation.

In addition Japan is not a resource rich nation and they have to import most of the resources they use in their economy which means they have to be on the defensive against the growing influence and power of the new dominate big boy on the block, aka China. Furthermore China and the Chinese people (along with almost all of Asia) have no great love for Japanese people due to the past atrocities committed during WW2 of which Japan has not fully accepted or acknowledge. In the end I hope this does not escalate but given the animosity held by both sides and the economic issues at play I have a nagging gut feeling that conflict will arise later on down the road if not presently between both of these nations.

How is a party in Japan supposed to deal with an aggressive outsider? By kowtowing to them? That will never happen and the current party is not at fault at all. What you say is akin to saying that an American political party should be more understanding of the interests of a foreign government that is behaving aggressively towards it. Only a weak people would bow to such pressure. Seeing your previous posts, you are no pacifist so your comment in how another party in another country is supposed to act is more aligned with your own bias than how you would act yourself if you were in that situation.

As for WWII, yeah, things happened. And these countries have asked for Japan to apologize many times. Japan has apologized many times. But it is never enough. Fact is, if you ask for an apology you must be ready to forgive...

If Japan was like Russia, this issue would end real quick...
http://www.ibtimes.com/russian-coast-guard-fires-chinese-boat-straining-friendship-723772
 
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Zeze

Lifer
Mar 4, 2011
11,395
1,189
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Mark my words. Nothing will come out of this.

It's all chest beating and saber rattling. This is 2013. In the age of global economy and everyone benefiting off of each other, neither are stupid enough to go to any kind of war over this.

Remind me to necro this few years from now.
 

King4x4

Member
Jan 12, 2013
71
0
0
^^
So freaking true.
The real war now is in the esponige bussiness and backstabbing deals in the tech industry.
 

Dari

Lifer
Oct 25, 2002
17,133
38
91
Mark my words. Nothing will come out of this.

It's all chest beating and saber rattling. This is 2013. In the age of global economy and everyone benefiting off of each other, neither are stupid enough to go to any kind of war over this.

Remind me to necro this few years from now.

^^
So freaking true.
The real war now is in the esponige bussiness and backstabbing deals in the tech industry.

Neither of you know China. They have been doing far worse to smaller neighbors. Boarding ships, cutting underwater powerlines, etc... And the way they talk to others. They talk down to them like a parent scolds a child. But full of histrionics. The difference with Japan is that they have to tread carefully. Otherwise, they'd be intidimating the Japanese just the same.
 

ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
20,378
145
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Certainly no. In that case Canada and Denmark must be at the edge of war as well.

Its nothing but political talk.
 

Dari

Lifer
Oct 25, 2002
17,133
38
91
Certainly no. In that case Canada and Denmark must be at the edge of war as well.

Its nothing but political talk.

How the fuck is it "nothing but political talk" when both nations are deploying fighter aircrafts? People like you and the previous two posters are always the ones that are blase about the probability of war then shocked when conflict breaks out. People like you say this is all talk or the nations have far too much to lose to want to fight each other. But all that is nonsense. We just have to look at history to see countless escalations and eventual miscalculations. That's when things take on a life of their own...
 

randomrogue

Diamond Member
Jan 15, 2011
5,449
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Japan is one of China's largest trading partners. About $350 billion a year. Therefore it's pretty easy to conclude that this is saber rattling.

With that said China is a huge bully in Asia right now. EVENTUALLY something might happen but between which nation or nations I have no idea.

The problem with Japanese Chinese relations is that no matter how much Japan apologizes for WWII the Chinese never let it go. They use it as a political card and it's ridiculous. Nanking was raped 75 years ago and this is still an issue for them despite the multiple apologies. Forgive but don't forget. Someone needs to teach them this.
 

Zeze

Lifer
Mar 4, 2011
11,395
1,189
126
How the fuck is it "nothing but political talk" when both nations are deploying fighter aircrafts? People like you and the previous two posters are always the ones that are blase about the probability of war then shocked when conflict breaks out. People like you say this is all talk or the nations have far too much to lose to want to fight each other. But all that is nonsense. We just have to look at history to see countless escalations and eventual miscalculations. That's when things take on a life of their own...

Care to make a bet? There has been a history of bets here and someone also paid up (it was $500) supervised by a mod.

I bet you $50 USD that there will be 0 casualty resulting directly from this island dispute between Japan and China by January of 2014, no make it 2020.


Not that I care about money or betting, but I'll come down to that. That's how confident I am about how worthless their chest beating are.

Call China or Japan what they are, but their top politicians and generals aren't fucking stupid. They have brains like you and me. No retard is going to actually pull the trigger and cause a war over this.

Remember 2 years ago when NK sunk SK's ship? Yea people actually DIED- 104 of them. Despite FURIOUS threats and taunts from both sides, NOTHING happened. Why? Because public is quick to forget. Both are smart to know, they'll both lose by fighting.
 
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Baptismbyfire

Senior member
Oct 7, 2010
330
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Yeah, nothing is going to happen. Because the two nations have nothing to gain from going to war. The Japanese elite would rather transfer all their assets out of Japan, jump ship, and leave all other Japanese to sink, rather than go to war. You forget that patriotism is only for the masses.
 

Dari

Lifer
Oct 25, 2002
17,133
38
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Care to make a bet? There has been a history of bets here and someone also paid up (it was $500) supervised by a mod.

I bet you $50 USD that there will be 0 casualty resulting directly from this island dispute between Japan and China by January of 2014, no make it 2020.


Not that I care about money or betting, but I'll come down to that. That's how confident I am about how worthless their chest beating are.

Call China or Japan what they are, but their top politicians and generals aren't fucking stupid. They have brains like you and me. No retard is going to actually pull the trigger and cause a war over this.

Remember 2 years ago when NK sunk SK's ship? Yea people actually DIED- 104 of them. Despite FURIOUS threats and taunts from both sides, NOTHING happened. Why? Because public is quick to forget. Both are smart to know, they'll both lose by fighting.

I don't make insignificant bets. If you want to gamble, go big. As for this conflict, I have already spelled out how China's governance works so there is a chance for serious miscalculations. Japan may not want conflict with China but they won't back down from a fight. The situation with north and south Korea is different. In that case, the North Koreans KNEW that S. Korea wasn't going to do anything. Why? Because their industrial hub and 20% of their population is like 50km from the DMZ. They wouldn't dare to respond in kind. And they didn't. The risk was not worth it for the S. Koreans because they had so much to lose. As for the North, they had complete control of their military. The same cannot be said of China and all the different governments that are at play (on the Chinese side) in this dispute. China has not manhandled Japan like they have other nations in dispute with China. One reason is because no one organ wants to take that big a risk. But they are probing to see how far they can take this.
 

Dari

Lifer
Oct 25, 2002
17,133
38
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Yeah, nothing is going to happen. Because the two nations have nothing to gain from going to war. The Japanese elite would rather transfer all their assets out of Japan, jump ship, and leave all other Japanese to sink, rather than go to war. You forget that patriotism is only for the masses.

You obviously don't know what you're talking about.
 

Dari

Lifer
Oct 25, 2002
17,133
38
91
Doesn't add much to the conversation, does it now.

No, your comment certainly doesn't. It's obvious you're equating the Japanese psyche of nationhood with whatever it is you are accustomed to. But the equivalency is absolutely false.
 

Baptismbyfire

Senior member
Oct 7, 2010
330
0
0
No, your comment certainly doesn't. It's obvious you're equating the Japanese psyche of nationhood with whatever it is you are accustomed to. But the equivalency is absolutely false.

You seriously believe that politicians would put their lives and their investments at risk to engage in a war that they cannot possibly win hoping for a glorious return to the days of Japanese Imperialism? If they truly cared for their country and their countrymen, they would not gear up for war, and would instead invest that money into developing new technology, and seek to reform the bureaucratic social structure that is stifling creativity at its very root and is killing whatever competitive edge Japan has had before. History has taught us over and over one thing about warmongers - they always use the real or imagined presence of an outside or internal threat to silence dissent and further solidify their power base. That is not what a patriot does the last time I checked.
 

ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
20,378
145
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How the fuck is it "nothing but political talk" when both nations are deploying fighter aircrafts? People like you and the previous two posters are always the ones that are blase about the probability of war then shocked when conflict breaks out. People like you say this is all talk or the nations have far too much to lose to want to fight each other. But all that is nonsense. We just have to look at history to see countless escalations and eventual miscalculations. That's when things take on a life of their own...

In terms of Canada vs Denmark. There is both troops and warships in a big pissing contest.

Its people like you who seeks the drama and cant understand politics.
 
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ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
20,378
145
106
The problem with Japanese Chinese relations is that no matter how much Japan apologizes for WWII the Chinese never let it go. They use it as a political card and it's ridiculous. Nanking was raped 75 years ago and this is still an issue for them despite the multiple apologies. Forgive but don't forget. Someone needs to teach them this.

Really?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_history_textbook_controversies#Major_controversies

Seems the japanese still got alot of issues on that front. My japanese friends says the same.

Its not just China being unhappy with Japan. South Korea aint happy either.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
52,429
45,907
136
How the fuck is it "nothing but political talk" when both nations are deploying fighter aircrafts? People like you and the previous two posters are always the ones that are blase about the probability of war then shocked when conflict breaks out. People like you say this is all talk or the nations have far too much to lose to want to fight each other. But all that is nonsense. We just have to look at history to see countless escalations and eventual miscalculations. That's when things take on a life of their own...

The Chinese are smart enough not to let this issue tip over into a real conflict since it would never turn out to their advantage. There are only ways to loose here. That's won't stop them from leveraging it to maintain/increase regional influence.

Failing all else the US has been attached at the hip strategically with Japan since the end of WWII and it is no secret. We (and other western countries) supply the JSDF with top of the line military equipment in addition to their own quite capable domestic arms industry. Any major conflict would only serve to embarrass the Chinese as militarily impotent beyond their land borders.