APS editor says there is not a scientific consensus on global warming

Pacfanweb

Lifer
Jan 2, 2000
13,158
59
91
The American Physical Society, an organization representing nearly 50,000 physicists, has reversed its stance on climate change and is now proclaiming that many of its members disbelieve in human-induced global warming. The APS is also sponsoring public debate on the validity of global warming science. The leadership of the society had previously called the evidence for global warming "incontrovertible."

In a posting to the APS forum, editor Jeffrey Marque explains,"There is a considerable presence within the scientific community of people who do not agree with the IPCC conclusion that anthropogenic CO2 emissions are very probably likely to be primarily responsible for global warming that has occurred since the Industrial Revolution."

The APS is opening its debate with the publication of a paper by Lord Monckton of Brenchley, which concludes that climate sensitivity -- the rate of temperature change a given amount of greenhouse gas will cause -- has been grossly overstated by IPCC modeling. A low sensitivity implies additional atmospheric CO2 will have little effect on global climate.

Larry Gould, Professor of Physics at the University of Hartford and Chairman of the New England Section of the APS, called Monckton's paper an "expose of the IPCC that details numerous exaggerations and "extensive errors"

In an email to DailyTech, Monckton says, "I was dismayed to discover that the IPCC's 2001 and 2007 reports did not devote chapters to the central 'climate sensitivity' question, and did not explain in proper, systematic detail the methods by which they evaluated it. When I began to investigate, it seemed that the IPCC was deliberately concealing and obscuring its method."

According to Monckton, there is substantial support for his results, "in the peer-reviewed literature, most articles on climate sensitivity conclude, as I have done, that climate sensitivity must be harmlessly low."

Monckton, who was the science advisor to Britain's Thatcher administration, says natural variability is the cause of most of the Earth's recent warming. "In the past 70 years the Sun was more active than at almost any other time in the past 11,400 years ... Mars, Jupiter, Neptune?s largest moon, and Pluto warmed at the same time as Earth."

Text

Um, oops?

Regards,

Global Warming extremists


edited title

To keep P&N a discussion forum and reduce the amount of inflamatory troll posts, please post more than simple links or complete quotes of articles that can be found by anyone. If you believe something is important enough to post, you must have some opinion of your own about the content of the article or link. "Um, oops" does not meet that criteria.

Anandtech Senior Moderator
Red Dawn
 

Pacfanweb

Lifer
Jan 2, 2000
13,158
59
91
Proved: There is no climate crisis

Lord Monckton?s paper reveals that ?

* The IPCC?s 2007 climate summary overstated CO2?s impact on temperature by 500-2000%;
* CO2 enrichment will add little more than 1 °F (0.6 °C) to global mean surface temperature by 2100;
* Not one of the three key variables whose product is climate sensitivity can be measured directly;
* The IPCC?s values for these key variables are taken from only four published papers, not 2,500;
* The IPCC?s values for each of the three variables, and hence for climate sensitivity, are overstated;
* ?Global warming? halted ten years ago, and surface temperature has been falling for seven years;
* Not one of the computer models relied upon by the IPCC predicted so long and rapid a cooling;
* The IPCC inserted a table into the scientists? draft, overstating the effect of ice-melt by 1000%;
* It was proved 50 years ago that predicting climate more than two weeks ahead is impossible;
* Mars, Jupiter, Neptune?s largest moon, and Pluto warmed at the same time as Earth warmed;
* In the past 70 years the Sun was more active than at almost any other time in the past 11,400 years.
 

OrByte

Diamond Member
Jul 21, 2000
9,303
144
106
ok

either there is climate change and we have to do something about it

or

there isn't climate change and we do nothing about the natural occurrences happening across the globe that is impacting peoples lives.

I guess your vote is to sit on your hands eh? nice.
 

Pacfanweb

Lifer
Jan 2, 2000
13,158
59
91
Originally posted by: OrByte
ok

either there is climate change and we have to do something about it

or

there isn't climate change and we do nothing about the natural occurrences happening across the globe that is impacting peoples lives.

I guess your vote is to sit on your hands eh? nice.
Point is, there is no global warming. Surface temp's been cooling for ten years. As suspected, it's all a big lie. And whose lives are being impacted? Even if they were, there is absolutely nothing that can be done about it.
 

NeoV

Diamond Member
Apr 18, 2000
9,504
2
81
hey pacfan - just cause you read it on the intarweb - doesn't mean it's true
 

OrByte

Diamond Member
Jul 21, 2000
9,303
144
106
Originally posted by: Pacfanweb
Originally posted by: OrByte
ok

either there is climate change and we have to do something about it

or

there isn't climate change and we do nothing about the natural occurrences happening across the globe that is impacting peoples lives.

I guess your vote is to sit on your hands eh? nice.
Point is, there is no global warming. Surface temp's been cooling for ten years. As suspected, it's all a big lie. And whose lives are being impacted? Even if they were, there is absolutely nothing that can be done about it.

wow you are so smart. Thanks for your POV

I dont agree.
 

NeoV

Diamond Member
Apr 18, 2000
9,504
2
81
ok then - how about you read the debunking of this guy - from 2 years ago - before you go spouting off about your knowledge of climate change
 

NeoV

Diamond Member
Apr 18, 2000
9,504
2
81
oh, and by the way - the APS hasn't reversed ANYTHING - how about checking their web page?

http://www.aps.org/


Regards, people really desperate to cling to anything that might refute that millions of cars and factories might not actually be putting crap in the air that isn't great for the planet

/thread
 

Pacfanweb

Lifer
Jan 2, 2000
13,158
59
91
Originally posted by: Pacfanweb
Originally posted by: NeoV
oh, and by the way - the APS hasn't reversed ANYTHING - how about checking their web page?

http://www.aps.org/

/thread
Well, now that puts a bit of a damper on the article.
Not so fast
There is a considerable presence within the scientific community of people who do not agree with the IPCC conclusion that anthropogenic CO2 emissions are very probably likely to be primarily responsible for the global warming that has occurred since the Industrial Revolution


And from the original article in the first post:
and is now proclaiming that many of its members disbelieve in human-induced global warming. The APS is also sponsoring public debate on the validity of global warming science.
That's different than actually reversing the position of the APS as a whole. But we've been told for years now that there is no debate, that the scientific community is pretty much in agreement that global warming is real....now we're finding out that they are NOT in agreement.



 

Pacfanweb

Lifer
Jan 2, 2000
13,158
59
91
Originally posted by: NeoV
ok then - how about you read the debunking of this guy - from 2 years ago - before you go spouting off about your knowledge of climate change
Debunking by a global warming activist? Hardly unbiased...that article you linked says
A scientific paper is one published in a peer-reviewed scientific journal. This means it has been subject to scrutiny by other experts in the field.

Okay, then from my link:
Mathematical proof that there is no ?climate crisis? appears today in a major, peer-reviewed paper in Physics and Society, a learned journal of the 10,000-strong American Physical Society, SPPI reports.

I guess we can wait for the peer reviews, then. If there truly is a consensus among scientists, this paper will be thoroughly trashed, soon.
 

NeoV

Diamond Member
Apr 18, 2000
9,504
2
81
desperate much?

the guy who wrote the 'paper' you are clinging to isn't any expert in any way, shape or form - of anything having anything to do with the climate. That alone should tell you something.
 

woodie1

Diamond Member
Mar 7, 2000
5,947
0
0
I'm not sure which side to believe.

But ...

No matter what the cause, human-induced or not, shouldn't we try to mitigate the amount of crap we spew into the atmosphere?

 

Bowfinger

Lifer
Nov 17, 2002
15,776
392
126
Nothing to see here folks. The OP misrepresents the article from The Daily Tech, which in turn presents a rather one-sided view of the source APS "Editor's Comments" piece referenced. In fact, the APS has NOT reversed itself on anything.

Here is the source piece, in its entirety:
Editor's Comments

With this issue of Physics & Society, we kick off a debate concerning one of the main conclusions of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the UN body which, together with Al Gore, recently won the Nobel Prize for its work concerning climate change research. There is a considerable presence within the scientific community of people who do not agree with the IPCC conclusion that anthropogenic CO2 emissions are very probably likely to be primarily responsible for the global warming that has occurred since the Industrial Revolution. Since the correctness or fallacy of that conclusion has immense implications for public policy and for the future of the biosphere, we thought it appropriate to present a debate within the pages of P&S concerning that conclusion. This editor (JJM) invited several people to contribute articles that were either pro or con. Christopher Monckton responded with this issue's article that argues against the correctness of the IPCC conclusion, and a pair from Cal Poly San Luis Obispo, David Hafemeister and Peter Schwartz, responded with this issue's article in favor of the IPCC conclusion. We, the editors of P&S, invite reasoned rebuttals from the authors as well as further contributions from the physics community. Please contact me (jjmarque@sbcglobal.net) if you wish to jump into this fray with comments or articles that are scientific in nature. However, we will not publish articles that are political or polemical in nature. Stick to the science! (JJM)

Whether or not human produced carbon dioxide is a major cause of impending climate change (as is being debated in the two articles of this issue), the issue of energy ?production? by our Earth-bound societies must be faced. Fossil fuel supplies may become unavailable in this century ? or the next ? but in a finite system, obeying the laws of thermodynamics, non-fossil energy sources will have to become available to mankind, sooner or later (within the foreseeable lifetime of our planet). One major energy resource, being much touted again, is that of the fissioning nucleus. Nuclear power faces three major drawbacks in the public eye: the possibilities of devastating accidents; the possibility of ?proliferation? ? the diversion of energy resources and technology into weaponry; the problem of protecting present and future generations from ?nuclear ashes?- the long-lived radioactive byproducts of power generation by nuclear fission. For the most part, our society has ?stuck its head in the sand? regarding these issues, but we have spent a great deal of money exploring one possible means of dealing with the third problem ? burying nuclear wastes deep underground (out of site, ergo out of mind). As the News item in this issue summarizes, the Federal government, after the expenditure of billions of dollars, seems to be ready to start sending long-lived wastes to be buried in Nevada. Many people there object ? ?not in my backyard?! As physicists interested in the impact of physics on society (and the converse), we are obligated to participate intensely in the public debate on this problem of waste disposal as well as the other two. The final resolutions will have to be political but hopefully they will be well informed by knowledge of the physical possibilities as well as constraints. For example, I am unaware of any public discussion about the practical possibilities of decreasing the amount of long-lived nuclear ashes via the use of fast neutron fission reactors for power generation. I hope to see much more discussion of these issues in the future ?pages? of this journal. (I put quotation marks about the word ?pages? since it now appears that we may no longer be communicating with you via the customary paper pages; what word(s) should we use?) We know that many of our readers are well informed on these topics and hope that they will share their physical insights with the rest of us ? please submit articles, commentaries, letters, and enjoy the summer ? whether its warmth is in line with past trends or represents a new climate. (AMS)

Note that it clearly says nothing about the APS reversing its position. It merely states they recognize there is a debate about the details of global warming, and that they are therefore going to publish articles offering differing views. There are two global warming papers in that issue, one challenging the premise that man is a major contributor, the other showing how solar activity cannot explain the temperature increases we are seeing. In short, they are offering readers a chance to become better informed.
 

ranmaniac

Golden Member
May 14, 2001
1,940
0
76
Al Gore and Prince Charles are shaking in anger.

I guess they'll need another avenue for imposing their Malthusian agenda.

 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
88,009
55,448
136
Shocking, Mike Asher on Dailytech posts another anti MMGW article. Alert the media!
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
35,848
10,162
136
Originally posted by: Pacfanweb
"In the past 70 years the Sun was more active than at almost any other time in the past 11,400 years ... Mars, Jupiter, Neptune?s largest moon, and Pluto warmed at the same time as Earth."

Text

Um, oops?

Regards,

Global Warming extremists

Damn, the earth is so warm from our actions we're destroying not only the earth but the entire solar system!
 

Pacfanweb

Lifer
Jan 2, 2000
13,158
59
91
Originally posted by: NeoV
desperate much?

the guy who wrote the 'paper' you are clinging to isn't any expert in any way, shape or form - of anything having anything to do with the climate. That alone should tell you something.
Read up on him, other than from that article you linked that was written by a global warming activist.

 

DealMonkey

Lifer
Nov 25, 2001
13,136
1
0
Originally posted by: Bowfinger
Nothing to see here folks. The OP misrepresents the article from The Daily Tech, which in turn presents a rather one-sided view of the source APS "Editor's Comments" piece referenced. In fact, the APS has NOT reversed itself on anything.
I wonder if the douchebag who posted this nonsense would be so kind as to revise/clarify his OP? Nah, why bother when he's clearly on some sort of ideological roll . . .
 

Pacfanweb

Lifer
Jan 2, 2000
13,158
59
91
Originally posted by: DealMonkey
Originally posted by: Bowfinger
Nothing to see here folks. The OP misrepresents the article from The Daily Tech, which in turn presents a rather one-sided view of the source APS "Editor's Comments" piece referenced. In fact, the APS has NOT reversed itself on anything.
I wonder if the douchebag who posted this nonsense would be so kind as to revise/clarify his OP? Nah, why bother when he's clearly on some sort of ideological roll . . .
Better? And it's not nonsense....there are many, many scientists who agree. Do some googling and find out for yourself.