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April 13, 2036

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65 Megatons? Pfeh. The Russians detonated a 50MT bomb. So long as it hits far from an urban center, not that many will die. At worst we'd lost a city or two.
 
Originally posted by: PingSpike
Originally posted by: bunnyfubbles
Originally posted by: binister
... dying in a fiery ball of Apophis.

Just heard about this on NPR. If my math is correct the impact would be equivalent to ~65 megaton bomb.

I guess the threat level of this asteroid has changed over the years but it is the only asteroid to achieve a level 4 on the Torino impact hazard scale.

Impact odds

As a comparison the odds of being dealt a royal flush in poker is 1 in 649,739.
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You didn't factor in the leaps and bounds our technology will advance in the next 30 years - which will drastically reduce the chances we'll be endagered by any NEO.
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I don't envision that many advances in the field of space travel in the next 30 years honestly. We haven't really done sh|t since the cold war ended, and we'll continue to not do sh|t.
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I think not. With China expanding their space program, I thik the US will step up tothe plate and make sure that China doesn't become a premeire space "player"

 
Originally posted by: So
65 Megatons? Pfeh. The Russians detonated a 50MT bomb. So long as it hits far from an urban center, not that many will die. At worst we'd lost a city or two.
Click to expand...

The bombs that were dropped in WWII were in the kiloton range and those instantly killed hundreds of thousands of people.

But I agree, 65MT probably won't destroy all life on Earth but I think the panic it will cause will create global chaos.
 
If my math is correct the impact would be equivalent to ~65 megaton bomb.
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Do you mean, "if I'm quoting a reliable source" or did you actually do the math to calculate this?

Tsar Bomba, mentioned above, was about 50 megatons. Wiki has a decent article to give an idea of the amount of damage it would cause here Russia had/has the capability of producing a much stronger bomb, but there's no military reason to have such a strong weapon.

But, (and I'm not going to attempt the calculations; it's simpler to just quote someone who has all the necessary numbers - mass, impact velocity, etc.) it's fairly simple to find estimates of the energy. Wiki, for example, places it at 880 megatons. An order of magnitude worse than what you calculated. (or rather, that's according to NASA calculations) Furthermore, if anyone is familiar with the comet/asteroid that exploded above Siberia (Tunguska event), you'll have a good idea how powerful 50 or 65 or 880 megatons is. The Tunguska event felled an estimated 60 million trees over 2,150 square kilometers (830 sq mi)." The Tunguska event is estimated at 10-15 megatons. Had that event occured just an hour or so later at the same latitude, it would have obliterated St. Petersburg.

Personally, I think it'd be pretty cool to get to experience a smaller impact on this planet (just as long as it hit a remote unpopulated area). It was incredibly interesting when the comet Shoemaker-Levy broke up and smacked Jupiter.
 
Remember to start accumulating massive amounts of debt in the early 2030's. If the world explodes and everyone dies while you still owe $10,000 to Visa, $10,000 to Mastercard, $10,000 to AmEx and another $30,000 on a car loan, YOU WIN!!!
 
dammit! that means i wont be able to play 'in the year 2525' by zager & evans during my new years eve party on december 31, 2524.
 
It's hard to even imagine that a supervolcano actually spits like >1000km3 to it's surrounding area. Just read it on wikipedia, never realized that so much amount of matter is actually mobilized when such event occurs.
 
Originally posted by: binister
Originally posted by: JRich
8.8e+02 MT != 65 MT
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Well then my math isn't correct 🙂 My TI-85 has failed me

What does it equal?
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Proof that a calculator is a crutch for people who can't think about math.
"What does it equal?" how about 8.8e+02 😛 🙂
 
Originally posted by: binister
Originally posted by: bunnyfubbles
Originally posted by: binister
... dying in a fiery ball of Apophis.

Just heard about this on NPR. If my math is correct the impact would be equivalent to ~65 megaton bomb.

I guess the threat level of this asteroid has changed over the years but it is the only asteroid to achieve a level 4 on the Torino impact hazard scale.

Impact odds

As a comparison the odds of being dealt a royal flush in poker is 1 in 649,739.
Click to expand...

You didn't factor in the leaps and bounds our technology will advance in the next 30 years - which will drastically reduce the chances we'll be endagered by any NEO.
Click to expand...

Like landing on it. Drilling a hole in it. And dropping a nuclear warhead into it?

Or are you speaking of sharks with friggin' laser attached to their heads? 😀
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+10 Cool points for incorporating TWO movie references into your reply. :beer:

 
Originally posted by: jlbenedict
"99.99770000% chance the asteroid will miss the Earth"


I like my chances!
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Doh!!! Beat me to it!!!


Though I am kinda' hopin' it comes close enough to give us somethin' pretty dang cool to look at in the sky!!!



Ooooh......oooh.........Of course, by then we'll all get an even better look since we'll all be in "FLYING CARS"..............yeah right?? 😛
 
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