[APPLE] "Switch" One Year Later: No One Switched

[Jeff7181]

By the way, my Prius gets 500 miles to the tank (<12 US gallons), requires no special skill to operate it, works on any road, but has a max speed of "only" 100 mph.

About 42 MPG... not bad... but not unusually high.

 

[NFS4]

Originally posted by: Jeff7181

By the way, my Prius gets 500 miles to the tank (<12 US gallons), requires no special skill to operate it, works on any road, but has a max speed of "only" 100 mph.

About 42 MPG... not bad... but not unusually high.

Considering my 3,100 lb Camry gets ~ 30MPG, I'm not that impressed either given the size of the car.

 

[ViRGE]

Originally posted by: GL
I hope I don't even need to mention that extrapolating marketshare from unit sales is an imprecise science. Ask a Mac user how long he/she keeps his/her computer before upgrading to a new one. Compare that to the typical PC user. For some reason, Mac users tend to keep their computers longer than their PC counterparts. For the sake of simplicity, let's say in the time that a Mac user owns one Mac, a PC user owns two PCs. You still only have two people but if you apply this marketshare Voodoo, it'll appear as though there are two PC users to the one Mac user. It's almost as bad as determining how many Windows users there are by looking at sales of Windows. There are way more Windows users than there are sales of Windows. Even so, there are still many people included in business figures as Windows users that formatted their computer and installed an alternative OS.

I definately think that has a lot to do with the numbers. Where I work for example, an entity that uses Macs exclusively, we have had purchasing restrictions enacted because of the economy; the Mirrored Drive Door G4 tower has been out for nearly a year, but we don't have a single one since no one is allowed to buy them. As it is right now, we still have users running old PowerBook 3400C's; ugly machines that run as slow as 166mhz, but the division that uses them has no intention of upgrading unless they break(and this isn't an economy based decision). To say Macs have a long life is an understatement; some of the pieces of trash we still use should have been taken out back and shot years ago, and yet they still keep chuging along.

PS MechBgon, bite me

 

[littlegreencube]

Originally posted by: BD2003
As long as their systems remain absurdly expensive and relatively slow, they are going to keep losing market share.

Agreed.

 

[dartworth]

Originally posted by: Eug

It's like the old analogy of making a car that gets 1000 miles to the gallon, never breaks down, and requires no special skill to operate it, but you can only drive it on 1% of the roads.

By the way, my Prius gets 500 miles to the tank (<12 US gallons), requires no special skill to operate it, works on any road, but has a max speed of "only" 100 mph.

I'd like to take your Mac and Prius and throw them in the back of my Ram QC 4x4 and take them directly to the scrap yard where they belong

 

[T9D]

..

 

[addragyn]

fifty percent of computer buyers at Apple?s stores did not currently own a Mac. macnn.com

Yup no new customers for Apple.

This is from the SAME comference call the article is about!


How exactly is Apple's "useage share" eroding? According to Google's zeitgeist it's been in the same 3% - 4% range for the past few years. Since installed base of PCs has absolutely increased this could support two conclusions; Macs are used longer and not all new ones are replacing old. Since pro sales have been in the toilet somebody else must be buying the things. Can you think of any other reasons has that Apple has kept the same share of the pie while the pie has gotten bigger? "Fewer users" indeed!


I absoluitely don't believe that Apple has "a dwindling third-party developer pool". Insteaad of trying to indentify the developers why not just look at those who serve them. Because if there is a need the market will serve it. Oreilly: macdevcenter.com & mac.oreilly.com/ plus a now 2 year old conference. Freshmeat now has an OS X branch[/l Apple's browser Safari uses the khtml engine from the KDE project, and they're not just using khtml they gave a bunch of fixes to the project during the Safari announcement. Of course there are the large Fink, Darwin ports, and Gentoo projects wokring under the metapgk umbrella all to bring free software to OS X/Darwin. If seems to me like developer interest in Apple is going up, because of OS X. And the real geeks like the core Perl hackers are already there.


Interestingly the market also disagrees with wininformant. Apple was @ $13.25 2 months ago, it last closed @ $20.85. Basically for every 10k you stuck in Apple in may you have made $5700. Nice little two month return.


I'd think an "Ace Reporter" could do a little ace fact checking!

 

[NFS4]

Yup no new customers for Apple. This is from the SAME comference call the article is about!

I don't think he said no new customers, he said no one switched from PC's. It's more likely that someone who has never had a computer before would be buying a Mac vs someone who has used Windows before and then "switches" over to a Mac.

I don't know about you, but I think that it would be easier for a person who has never used a computer before to jump right into using a Mac than someone who has been used to using Windows for a while switching over to a Mac (there's just too much built in biases/familiaration with Windows machines). That's why there hasn't really been that big of a "switch."

I'd think an "Ace Reporter" could do a little ace fact checking!

Do you think that I do a background check on every single link I post in GH? For the front page, yes. But not here on the forums. That's what you people are for

 

[BoberFett]

Does anybody ever wonder why the only killer apps for Mac are from Apple? Everything positive I hear about for Mac is iThis and iThat. Don't any 3rd parties write anything good for Mac besides Adobe?

 

[mosco]

Killer Apps? Audion, Candybar, Camino, Any product from omnigroup(omniweb, omnigraffle, omni outliner), Watson, Fink, Firestarter,Missing media burner, Carracho, Forty-two, themepark, X-plane, Audio Hijack, Proteus, Aduim, Onyx, Graphic converter, ffmegX, openoffice, Weatherpop, etc(just some of the apps i use)

Just got to macupdate.com or versiontracker.com/macosx and you will find plenty of software.

 

[EdipisReks]

Originally posted by: BoberFett
Does anybody ever wonder why the only killer apps for Mac are from Apple? Everything positive I hear about for Mac is iThis and iThat. Don't any 3rd parties write anything good for Mac besides Adobe?

a big reason for this is simply the fact that Apple makes incredible software. for instance Adobe quit making Premiere for the Mac platform because FinalCut Pro is sooooo much better than Premiere. Premiere has almost caught up with Final Cut 2. Final Cut is currently on 4.

 

[EdipisReks]

Originally posted by: KDOG
Hmmm, when it comes to macs, I am reminded of a saying:

"If you make a computer an idiot can use, only idiots will use it."

I think that about covers it....

didn't it take you a month to get a your Radeon 9500 Pro to work? maybe you should have bought an Apple. and i hardly call a BSD based machine to be ones that "only idiots can use". most people i know who have recently switched to Macs have been *nix geeks.

 

[DSE]

Originally posted by: jfano

Originally posted by: Eug

It's like the old analogy of making a car that gets 1000 miles to the gallon, never breaks down, and requires no special skill to operate it, but you can only drive it on 1% of the roads.

By the way, my Prius gets 500 miles to the tank (<12 US gallons), requires no special skill to operate it, works on any road, but has a max speed of "only" 100 mph.

I'd like to take your Mac and Prius and throw them in the back of my Ram QC 4x4 and take them directly to the scrap yard where they belong

His Prius is what the car companies are putting on the other side of the scale to balance out the emmissions and gas milage requirements so that they can still make and sell your RAM QC. I know, not the same manufacturer, but you get the jist.

 

[BoberFett]

Originally posted by: mosco
Killer Apps? Audion, Candybar, Camino, Any product from omnigroup(omniweb, omnigraffle, omni outliner), Watson, Fink, Firestarter,Missing media burner, Carracho, Forty-two, themepark, X-plane, Audio Hijack, Proteus, Aduim, Onyx, Graphic converter, ffmegX, openoffice, Weatherpop, etc(just some of the apps i use)

Just got to macupdate.com or versiontracker.com/macosx and you will find plenty of software.

I've never heard of any of those. The only thing I ever hear is "You should switch to Mac because it's got iSomethingOrOther." I never have to wonder if there's software I want for the PC. If I want it, it's available.

Oh well, I guess my experience with Macs has just been very negative over the years, and they haven't done anything to impress me recently.

 

[TheOverlord]

the lovely Janie Porche

she goes to my college...we wrote an article about her in our newspaper. i didn't get to shoot the photo assignment though. my only claim to fame...sad ain't it.

 

[Barnaby W. Füi]

Eh, who cares? They aren't going anywhere.

 

[vetteguy]

By the way, my Prius gets 500 miles to the tank (<12 US gallons), requires no special skill to operate it, works on any road, but has a max speed of "only" 100 mph.

My 300HP Corvette got 31mpg on the highway. And I think you were missing the point of my analogy: Apple is trying to have the market share of a mainstream product while maintaining a niche customer base. Not going to happen.

 

[tcsenter]

Yep, one year 'post-switch' data isn't enough to make any conclusive pronouncements.

We'll have to wait for two years of declining market share and sales 'post-switch' in order to more reliably make projections about the year of Apple's inevitable death. lol!

Unless it drops the price of all their models by at least 20%. That is their only hope because people aren't going to start paying more. Apple has already tapped-out the upper echelon of savvy consumers who embrace the maxim "you get what you pay for".

The rest of us are willing to take our chances if it means saving a couple bucks.

 

[Barnaby W. Füi]

Originally posted by: vetteguy

By the way, my Prius gets 500 miles to the tank (<12 US gallons), requires no special skill to operate it, works on any road, but has a max speed of "only" 100 mph.

My 300HP Corvette got 31mpg on the highway. And I think you were missing the point of my analogy: Apple is trying to have the market share of a mainstream product while maintaining a niche customer base. Not going to happen.

I don't think that's the case. I think they're well aware that they are a niche company with a niche userbase. There is no way they ever expected to gain mainstream marketshare. Just because they tried to get a few more customers with their switch thing doesn't mean that they thought they would take over the world. I hope they're not THAT stupid (and I don't think they are - because they're doing quite well).

Oh, did you guys know Apple's earnings were up last quarter or whatever? Like I said: they're not going anywhere.

 

[wetcat007]

Originally posted by: Intelman07
Bah those ads were lame anyways....... the people talked like they couldn't even use the computer.

I don't think they did, infact they blatently said it, lol they were extremily pathetic.

 

[Eug]

About 42 MPG... not bad... but not unusually high.

Considering my 3,100 lb Camry gets ~ 30MPG, I'm not that impressed either given the size of the car.

Well, people have gotten over 700 miles on a tank, but I don't generally try too hard to drive to save gas. Anyways, my last tank of gas was a 41 L (10.83 US gal) fillup after 800 km (497.1 mi). That's 5.125 L/100 km which is 46 mpg, for this 2800 lb car.

In other words, my Prius is about 10% lighter, but gets 50% better gas mileage. Not too shabby if you ask me.

Even if you were to drop 100 km off my last trip with the same fuel (ie. more jackrabbit driving), that'd still be 40 mpg, a 33% increase in gas mileage over the Camry.

BTW, the 2004 Prius is higher power, bigger size (mid-size), and is rated for better gas mileage. (My 2001 is apparently just under the cutoff for the mid-size class, and the 2004 just squeaks into the mid-size class.)

 

[NFS4]

Originally posted by: Eug

About 42 MPG... not bad... but not unusually high.

Considering my 3,100 lb Camry gets ~ 30MPG, I'm not that impressed either given the size of the car.

Well, people have gotten over 700 miles on a tank, but I don't generally try too hard to drive to save gas. Anyways, my last tank of gas was a 41 L (10.83 US gal) fillup after 800 km (497.1 mi). That's 5.125 L/100 km which is 46 mpg, for this 2800 lb car.

In other words, my Prius is about 10% lighter, but gets 50% better gas mileage. Not too shabby if you ask me.

Even if you were to drop 100 km off my last trip with the same fuel (ie. more jackrabbit driving), that'd still be 40 mpg, a 33% increase in gas mileage over the Camry.

BTW, the 2004 Prius is higher power, bigger size (mid-size), and is rated for better gas mileage. (My 2001 is apparently just under the cutoff for the mid-size class, and the 2004 just squeaks into the mid-size class.)

I'd rather spend $6,000 less money and get a Corolla and get in the high 30's/low 40's. It'd take you years to make up for the difference fuel costs would save you vs the extra $$$ you put down for the vehicle. Not to mention that it isn't exactly a fast car...even compared to a Corolla.

Don't get me wrong, hybrids are nice, but they're not quite "there" yet. Hybrids don't really make much sense in a car as small as a Prius. They make the most sense in larger more expensive vehicles (Sienna, Highlander, RX330...all which will have hybrid versions within the next two years) which could stand to gain a few MPG. I don't think that people who have a Corolla or Civic are screaming about getting poor MPG. But you may hear people in those larger vehicles saying those same things.

 

[Eug]

I'd rather spend $6,000 less money and get a Corolla

Well, a Corolla is a good deal, but it's not a direct comparison. It's a smaller car, with less power, less features, and poorer handling. (I had to drive a rental Corolla for a couple weeks, while my Prius was fixed. Damn hit and run on my parked car. :|)

 

[LethalWolfe]

Why is it that Apple, a computer hardware company that also makes software, gets pitted against every non-Apple made computer when people configure these stats? Why don't they compare figures from Apple, Dell, HP/Compaq, IBM, Gateway, etc., side by side instead of comparing Macs to all non-Macs? That's like saying

And, just as a casual observation, in the past year or so there has been a significant increase in new Mac owners that have joined a Mac forum I frequent.


Lethal

 

[NFS4]

Originally posted by: Eug

I'd rather spend $6,000 less money and get a Corolla

Well, a Corolla is a good deal, but it's not a direct comparison. It's a smaller car, with less power, less features, and poorer handling. (I had to drive a rental Corolla for a couple weeks, while my Prius was fixed. Damn hit and run on my parked car. :|)

(1) Smaller car, but not by much compared to a "current" Prius.
(2) Less horsepower my ass Prius has a 70HP gas engine + 44HP from the electric motors. 70 + 44 = 114HP. Toyota actually nets them together as being less than that as they rate the net power of the Prius at 98HP...and it performs like it too. Corolla has 138HP.
(3) I have to LOL at that handling comment. The Prius runs on skinny energy saving-saving, hard-ass tires. No way in the world that a Prius is going to outhandle a Corolla

As for pricing:

'03 Toyota Corolla LE; 5-speed stick

Standard Equipment
Power windows one touch up-down/locks/mirrors
A/C
AM/FM/CD

Optional Equipment
ABS
Side airbags
Cruise Control

Price: $15,076



'03 Toyota Prius

Standard Equipment
Power windows one touch up-down/locks/mirrors
A/C
AM/FM
ABS

Optional Equipment
Side airbags
Cruise Control

Price: $20,980


Performance

Corolla / Prius

0-60: 8.2 seconds / 12.8 seconds
1/4 mile: 16.4 seconds @ 86 MPH / 19.3 seconds @ 75.3 MPH
Slalom (handling test): 63.3 MPH / 57.5 MPH