Apple smartphone shipment share hits bottom, lowest in 2 years

[QueBert]

Yep, Samsung is killing it. That's why the S7 went bogo something like a month after launch.

Let me know when Apple does a bogo to boost shipments.

Weren't they throwing in a free VR gear or whatever it's called too? I went into the Sprint store to get a new phone a few months ago. I wasn't paying much attention but I could swear they offered me 2 S7 Edges + the VR headset for like $200 or something crazy.

 

[Pantalaimon]

Saw that Samsung Electronics announced earnings. A bit of upside surprise at $4.6B this past quarter.

And yet for all of the hand wringing at Apple's "struggles", they cleared $10.5B in earnings in that same quarter. 😛

Because in this industry when companies fall down, they fall down quick and hard. See what happened to Blackberry and Nokia. They were both on top of the hill but then went to irrelevance quickly within a few years. Investors are afraid this might signal the beginning of the downward slide for Apple now.

 

[luv2liv]

Because in this industry when companies fall down, they fall down quick and hard. See what happened to Blackberry and Nokia. They were both on top of the hill but then went to irrelevance quickly within a few years. Investors are afraid this might signal the beginning of the downward slide for Apple now.

amen!
most people think we've hit peak phone. there's nothing new and exciting. no "rose gold" color is gonna fool anybody as innovation.

 

[blankslate]

Having said that, the rumors of iPhone 7 being a lukewarm upgrade are worrisome. I saw a leaked back panel and it looked exactly like the iPhone 6/6s'.

C'mon man you know the pattern that Apple has had in regards to its iPhone line for the past few iterations.

New number, nothing really exciting (the exception being the larger screen for the 6, but still a problem that needed fixing) and if any issue is discovered... the fix along with the more interesting hardware improvements will be released in the "S" version.

the 7s will have what most want in regards to a more than lukewarm upgrade.


__________________

 

[poofyhairguy]

I think it is a mistake to write off the iPhone 7 before we even see it. It should be the iPhone with a new form factor, and there is so much low hanging fruit in the current iPhone design that the iPhone 7 might be the biggest upgrade in a while. If they can shrink the bezel and add say an OLED screen that would be a huge upgrade even if the SoC+RAM is barely better than the 6s. Apple has been selling dinosaur phones for so long we have no clue how the market will react once they pick that low hanging design fruit.

The real question is if Apple will continue to float by on S models, or give people complete upgrades year to year. They maybe can't afford a slump every other year going forward, which would be BAD for the iPhone 7 because they then will trickle out the needed updates to the form factor (aka iPhone 7 removes bezel, 2017 iPhone 8 (would be 7S) goes OLED, etc.) to make each year a "real" upgrade.

 

[stlc8tr]

Because in this industry when companies fall down, they fall down quick and hard. See what happened to Blackberry and Nokia. They were both on top of the hill but then went to irrelevance quickly within a few years. Investors are afraid this might signal the beginning of the downward slide for Apple now.

Eh. If this actually was the case, Samsung Electronics' mobile division would have been shuttered long ago. Apple's fine and will continue to be fine for a long, long time.

 

[quikah]

Because in this industry when companies fall down, they fall down quick and hard. See what happened to Blackberry and Nokia. They were both on top of the hill but then went to irrelevance quickly within a few years. Investors are afraid this might signal the beginning of the downward slide for Apple now.

That is kind of a ridiculous comparison. There is a VERY strong base for Apple, they probably have peaked and are moving to more modest growth, but fearing a slide to irrelevance is a HUGE stretch.

If they can shrink the bezel and add say an OLED screen that would be a huge upgrade even if the SoC+RAM is barely better than the 6s. Apple has been selling dinosaur phones for so long we have no clue how the market will react once they pick that low hanging design fruit.

I don't think the iPhone would really benefit THAT much from shrunk bezels, it just makes the phone narrower (and shrink the battery even more), meh. iOS needs a major redesign IMO, it is FAR too limiting and pretty much dictates the design of the hardware.

 

[ElFenix]

The real question is if Apple will continue to float by on S models, or give people complete upgrades year to year. They maybe can't afford a slump every other year going forward, which would be BAD for the iPhone 7 because they then will trickle out the needed updates to the form factor (aka iPhone 7 removes bezel, 2017 iPhone 8 (would be 7S) goes OLED, etc.) to make each year a "real" upgrade.

iirc the S models have been big sellers historically.


the biggest issue facing phone makers going forward is that phones from several years ago are still 'good enough' for most people (and current midrange phones, even stretching into the upper low range phones).

there needs to be a new killer app that takes advantage of the then-current high-end hardware for flagship phones before the market will shift in that direction. maybe VR brackets can create a new killer app that drives new phone sales, or maybe not.

 

[poofyhairguy]

I don't think the iPhone would really benefit THAT much from shrunk bezels, it just makes the phone narrower (and shrink the battery even more), meh.

Actually its about getting a larger screen on the same size body. The iPhone non plus could have a 5 inch screen (or 5.1 even) instead of a 4.7 if they shrunk the bezels.

Raising the PPI of the screen would also be an upgrade. I can clearly see the pixels on the current non-Plus iPhone, time for it to be 1080p at least.

iOS needs a major redesign IMO, it is FAR too limiting and pretty much dictates the design of the hardware.

I don't know if Apple agrees, seeing as how they are selling "Pro" products that run iOS. Apple now has the problem Microsoft once had where if they change things too much all the users who are used to the way it was will be lost.

iirc the S models have been big sellers historically.

Because under a subsidy model that almost guaranteed an upgrade every 2 years a lot of people were on the "S" cycle. I think the sales of the iPhone 6S have shown that with that model breaking down some people are going to wait longer for upgrades which makes S models a harder sell.

the biggest issue facing phone makers going forward is that phones from several years ago are still 'good enough' for most people (and current midrange phones, even stretching into the upper low range phones).

there needs to be a new killer app that takes advantage of the then-current high-end hardware for flagship phones before the market will shift in that direction. maybe VR brackets can create a new killer app that drives new phone sales, or maybe not.

I agree 100%, just like tablets we have hit the limit of the form factor. I don't think there is a killer app coming for flagship phones, and even if it was VR Apple is way behind on that market.

I think the next big innovation is a change in form factor- phones that fold up or roll up or change form to best fit the user. The problem for Apple is that companies like LG and Samsung with their bendy OLED panels are in a better position to get there.

Apple is going to have to do something bold like buy Tesla to see major iPhone-like growth going forward.

 

[quikah]

the biggest issue facing phone makers going forward is that phones from several years ago are still 'good enough' for most people (and current midrange phones, even stretching into the upper low range phones).

there needs to be a new killer app that takes advantage of the then-current high-end hardware for flagship phones before the market will shift in that direction. maybe VR brackets can create a new killer app that drives new phone sales, or maybe not.

The phone market is hitting the same wall the PC market hit years ago. Most people don't need super powerful phones.

Eventually the PC and phone might combine into one device. MS (UWP & continuum) and Google (android apps on chromeOS) to some extent are working on this idea already. It seems like Apple is set on keeping these things separate.

 

[WelshBloke]

The phone market is hitting the same wall the PC market hit years ago. Most people don't need super powerful phones.

Eventually the PC and phone might combine into one device. MS (UWP & continuum) and Google (android apps on chromeOS) to some extent are working on this idea already. It seems like Apple is set on keeping these things separate.

I agree with Apple on this.

The app doesnt matter, its the data thats important.

By that I mean that I dont need the same app to look at photos on my PC and phone, as long as I'm looking at the same photos.


Give me access to all my data on every device I have but make the manner of viewing and manipulating that data appropriate to the device that I'm using.

 

[Pantalaimon]

That is kind of a ridiculous comparison. There is a VERY strong base for Apple, they probably have peaked and are moving to more modest growth, but fearing a slide to irrelevance is a HUGE stretch..

To you it might be not a big deal that Apple will have to do with only modest growth, but to investors who have poured money in stocks of Apple it is a big deal, especially since iphones have been the main bulk of Apple's growth.

 

[StrangerGuy]

The phone market is hitting the same wall the PC market hit years ago. Most people don't need super powerful phones.

Eventually the PC and phone might combine into one device. MS (UWP & continuum) and Google (android apps on chromeOS) to some extent are working on this idea already. It seems like Apple is set on keeping these things separate.

It's pretty baffling Apple spent so much effort into developing the most powerful ARM SoCs and then naively hope that software third parties will properly leverage the hardware power. Unlike consoles, it simply doesn't work that way due to the cheapass mobile app economy that is more or less forced to cater to the lowest common denominator.

They should have spend a few billion here and there to create really good iOS exclusive games and suddenly a ton of people won't even remotely think of buying Android no matter how good or cheap, and Apple will also have a really good pull factor to entice users to upgrade. Certainly a far more worthwhile investment than worthless stock buybacks.

 

[blankslate]

The phone market is hitting the same wall the PC market hit years ago. Most people don't need super powerful phones.

Pretty much this, I'm still using a 3 year old phone that was a flagship at the time of its release, I got it because of certain features it has and it's lasted this long mostly due to expandable storage allowing me to keep large amounts of media on the phone.

I'm finally looking to upgrade soon and I may just get a used flashship that is a year (maybe two years) old.


____________

 

[stlc8tr]

With all mature companies struggling to find new growth areas, I much prefer what Alphabet is doing vs. Apple. Alphabet spent 3.5 billion on moonshot projects last year. Apple made something like 55 billion in profit last year and to date, they've on track to spend 250 billion on stock buy backs that has done very little for their stock price. To me that 250 billion has been far less usefully spent.

Where did you see the $250B figure?

This article said that the number $104B, as of 4Q15.

http://appleinsider.com/articles/15...of-its-own-shares-in-massive-q4-buyback-surge

 

[dawheat]

Where did you see the $250B figure?

This article said that the number $104B, as of 4Q15.

http://appleinsider.com/articles/15...of-its-own-shares-in-massive-q4-buyback-surge

Hmm i swear I read in the last investor release that the capital return program was closer to 250B - that might have included committed future spending. So regardless, even going by your link + Apple's statements on 2016, it's still going to be at least 120B including 2016 on stock buyback alone.

Maybe changes the magnitude but still not the relative uselessness of spending that enormous amount of capital for such little gain.

 

[quikah]

To you it might be not a big deal that Apple will have to do with only modest growth, but to investors who have poured money in stocks of Apple it is a big deal, especially since iphones have been the main bulk of Apple's growth.

No argument it is causing concern on wallstreet, but you compared this to Blackberry and Nokia, 2 companies which essentially have gone out of business. That is a stretch.

 

[poofyhairguy]

No argument it is causing concern on wallstreet, but you compared this to Blackberry and Nokia, 2 companies which essentially have gone out of business. That is a stretch.

I think the example is relevant in it shows how quickly someone can slip if they fall behind technologically.

Nokia had THE first smartphone OS in Symbian. Then Blackberry came along and took the top position. Then Blackberry could keep up with touch screens so Apple took the top position. If Apple rests on its laurels too much with iPhones someone else might take their spot.

 

[Artdeco]

Ok, I've resisted long enough, going to Monday Morning QB Apple...

They need to cut the steep price on ram upgrades on iDevices. The public is more sophisticated now, and they understand it's a rip off.

Cook needs to step back, and go back to bean counting

Apple board needs to hire a pitchman as CEO

Start another line of phones, call them a "hobby" take some chances, develop manufacturing techniques on small batches, take some risks, God knows they can afford it.

Allow us to jailbreak, lose the software warranty, keep a hardware warranty. I'd sign off on a user agreement to that effect.

Sorry Apple, I was a super fan, but I've gone back to Android phone & Wear, going to sit out at least 1 gen, maybe more, till they start taking some chances again. Until a decent Android tablet shows up, I'll stick with the iPad, likely to get a used 12" Pro soon.

I think for me, after cleaning my toys and noticing what I had was essentially a collection of different sizes of tablets from Apple sort of freaked me out, an iPod Touch, iPad Mini, iPhone 6s, iPhone 6s Plus, and a 9.7" iPad. That's not innovation.

All that being said, 50 billion in sales, and 10 billion in profit is an insane amount of money, and perhaps suggesting Apple is in decline is just silly...

 

[Commodus]

I don't think catering to tinkerers with jailbreaking and experimental designs is going to help. Just ask Samsung how many people bought a Galaxy Note Edge.

To me, it's simple: more aggressive updates. Give folks a bigger reason to upgrade from generation to generation. Apple doesn't necessarily need to ditch the tick-tock cycle (major revamp, iterative update, repeat), but more tangible upgrades during those iterative periods would be good. Also, there are too many products that have unusually lengthy update cycles... Apple should have updated the MacBook Pro to Skylake, I think, even if precious little else changed.

 

[Ichinisan]

I don't really think wireless charging is so important that it will drive iPhone sales. The maindifference between wireless charging and wired charging is you can't use your phone while wireless charging.

At least with wires you can use your phone and even hold it up to your ear while charging.

I don't think for many people wireless charging is a necessary feature. It certainly isn't for me. Wired charging is still superior for my use cases.

Wireless is also inefficient and wasteful.

 

[Ichinisan]

I agree with you on this

also a lot of apple owners I know are fed up with having to buy expensive cables, if the wireless charger isn't included. some people gonna be very mad

I agree people want it, I just don't think its enough to see a massive increase in sales for that reason alone

They can buy the microUSB to Lightning adapter and use cheap cables.

I'm not sure if that charges an iPad at maximum speed though.

 

[Ichinisan]

Ok, I've resisted long enough, going to Monday Morning QB Apple...

They need to cut the steep price on ram upgrades on iDevices. The public is more sophisticated now, and they understand it's a rip off.

Are you confusing storage with RAM?

 

[Artdeco]

Are you confusing storage with RAM?

Yes :\

 

[dawheat]

Wireless is also inefficient and wasteful.

Totally - everything from smart watch chargers to electric toothbrushes should be corded for efficiency, convenience be damned.