Apple iPhone 6 sales disappoint, shares plummet 7%

[Commodus]

Man, I used to love HTC's stuff, I had my HD2 tweaked to hell and back, dunno what the hell happened to them, mostly poor management I guess. Samsung just kicked their ass...

Think it mostly amounts to a confusing strategy, primarily between 2010-2011. Too many models and lots of compromise. Just ask Thunderbolt owners who had to settle for a chunky design and miserable battery life simply so that Verizon could say it had one more LTE phone. Things got much, much better from 2012 onward (I loved the One X / One S), but this was also at the same time that Samsung hit its stride with the GS3 and its endless marketing blitz. HTC got overshadowed, and its oddball UltraPixel cameras probably scared people off from phones that were arguably better than Samsung's in most respects.

As for the One M9... well, I think that's an instance of HTC not really understanding what people wanted next. Yes, we wanted higher-resolution cameras... but you didn't have to go too far in the other direction and offer a 20-megapixel camera that isn't good in low light.

 

[Achtung!]

KGI which has an excellent track record predicts iPhone sales to stagnate and even decline (!!) in the next quarter when Apple releases its new devices:

http://9to5mac.com/2015/08/11/kgi-zero-or-negative-iphone-growth/

And considering the devaluation of the Chinese yuan, this could hit Apple's profits in China hard.

The main reason for this forecast of a sales decline is probably because Force Touch will be underwhelming.

 

[Commodus]

Reviving this thread, since it already looks like it's claim chowder in the making (that is, a dubious prediction proven to be wrong later).

Apple says it's on track to beat last year's first-weekend iPhone sales. (Sounds like it's not done calculating the tally yet, but it's confident enough to say something on the record.) We'll see how long-term sales shake out, of course, but this clearly isn't a tepid launch.

This is a friendly reminder that analysts are good at summarizing existing data and occasionally getting leaks, but they're typically lousy at predicting the future. They don't have the insight into which products will be on the market, rarely account for surprise factors and often put more worth in a company's historical reputation than market realities. Remember, if analysts were accurate back in 2011, you'd probably be using a Windows phone today (because it's still 1998, and Microsoft eventually leads every market it enters, right?).

Here's the simple truth: the iPhone 6s is building on an already popular phone, and catering to a wider potential audience than the 6 (since there are a lot of 5s and 5c buyers, on top of the usual newcomers/switchers/holdouts). It may not produce the same kind of spike in demand that we saw with the 6, but the odds are high that it'll generate similar or better sales when compared to last year's model. Apple would have to either botch the launch or run into an unprecedented industry contraction to sell significantly fewer devices.

 

[Eug]

I'm not sure how much people like me matter in terms of sales volumes, but I absolutely refused to buy a 1 GB iPhone in 2014 no matter what. I was even a bit hesitant back in 2013 for my iPhone 5s (but was desperate because I wanted to get off Android).

2 GB or bust.

As I've mentioned before, the main reason I didn't buy two of the iPhone 6s is cost, partially because of the terrible exchange rate for the current Canadian dollar. So, we're sticking to just one iPhone 6s purchase for now.

 

[PricklyPete]

Count me as an Apple-drone who finally has given in (after 3 happy years with my 5) and ordered a 6s. I will likely keep thus phone 3 more years...but I have no incentive to jump off the Apple bandwagon.

 

[PricklyPete]

2 GB or bust.

Good news...

http://9to5mac.com/2015/09/13/iphone-6s-2gb-ram-ipad-pro-4gb-ram/

 

[Eug]

Count me as an Apple-drone who finally has given in (after 3 happy years with my 5) and ordered a 6s. I will likely keep thus phone 3 more years...but I have no incentive to jump off the Apple bandwagon.

Yes, my wife is on the iPhone 5 so I got her the 6s. I'm on the 5s, and may get a 6s, but will wait, possibly until the iPhone 7.

This is the first time ever that she will have a more advanced phone than I will.

Good news...

http://9to5mac.com/2015/09/13/iphone-6s-2gb-ram-ipad-pro-4gb-ram/

Yes, I'm aware already. In any case, I pre-ordered on the 12th, 98% sure that it would come with 2 GB RAM.

 

[dawheat]

Reviving this thread, since it already looks like it's claim chowder in the making (that is, a dubious prediction proven to be wrong later).

Apple says it's on track to beat last year's first-weekend iPhone sales. (Sounds like it's not done calculating the tally yet, but it's confident enough to say something on the record.) We'll see how long-term sales shake out, of course, but this clearly isn't a tepid launch.

This is a friendly reminder that analysts are good at summarizing existing data and occasionally getting leaks, but they're typically lousy at predicting the future. They don't have the insight into which products will be on the market, rarely account for surprise factors and often put more worth in a company's historical reputation than market realities. Remember, if analysts were accurate back in 2011, you'd probably be using a Windows phone today (because it's still 1998, and Microsoft eventually leads every market it enters, right?).

Here's the simple truth: the iPhone 6s is building on an already popular phone, and catering to a wider potential audience than the 6 (since there are a lot of 5s and 5c buyers, on top of the usual newcomers/switchers/holdouts). It may not produce the same kind of spike in demand that we saw with the 6, but the odds are high that it'll generate similar or better sales when compared to last year's model. Apple would have to either botch the launch or run into an unprecedented industry contraction to sell significantly fewer devices.

Umm if sales are even remotely flat, AAPL will tank. It's kind of ridiculous considering the amount of cash Apple generates, but the whole stock shenanigans are due to skepticism of whether Apple can continue to grow at anything like historical rates, especially now that the larger phones have been introduced.

So similar sales to last year would be an unmitigated disaster and force Apple to turn into a dividend stock. Growth y/o/y of say 20% would probably be the minimum in keeping the doomsayers at bay. No one expects last years 50-60% y/o/y growth but if that somehow happened, their stock would skyrocket.

Considering China is a launch market unlike last year, I do expect 20-30% y/o/y sales growth normalized for different quarterly length. A bit better than expected, but not meteoritic.

 

[jakebrennan]

Yeah, this isn't looking good for Apple.

Apple's momentum 'meltdown' bites investors
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/04/us-apple-stocks-idUSKCN0Q92A020150804

When investors see the likely dismal sales of the upcoming iPhone 6s, prepare for an even bigger meltdown of Apple's shares.

I just laugh when people like Icahn think that Apple's shares can reach $1 trillion. It's at $0.6 trillion right now and most likely going to end up far lower than that in the next 1-2 years.

I'm betting my money that the iPhone 6s will sell much less than the iPhone 6 with US consumer sentiment getting lower and lower now.

The Chinese smartphone market is pretty much at saturation point. The only other large market now is India, where the Samsung Tizen Z series smartphones are dominating.

From CNBC on Monday: "Apple: We are on pace to beat last year's iPhone first-weekend record"

"Customer response to iPhone 6S and iPhone 6S Plus has been extremely positive and preorders this weekend were very strong around the world," the company said in a statement. "We are on pace to beat last year's 10 million unit first-weekend record when the new iPhones go on sale Sept. 25."

According to an iPhone Inventory blog which tracks the back-order status of the various iPhone models, the wait time for the big-screen iPhone 6S Plus in China is running at three to four weeks, and two to three weeks for the 6S, Re/code reported Saturday.

Apple Senior Vice President of Worldwide Marketing Phil Schiller speaks on stage during a Special Event at Bill Graham Civic Auditorium September 9, 2015 in San Francisco, California.

"As many customers noticed, the online demand for iPhone 6S Plus has been exceptionally strong and exceeded our own forecasts for the preorder period," the company also wrote. "We are working to catch up as quickly as we can, and we will have iPhone 6S Plus as well as iPhone 6S units available at Apple retail stores when they open next Friday."

 

[PricklyPete]

Yes, my wife is on the iPhone 5 so I got her the 6s. I'm on the 5s, and may get a 6s, but will wait, possibly until the iPhone 7.



This is the first time ever that she will have a more advanced phone than I will.







Yes, I'm aware already. In any case, I pre-ordered on the 12th, 98% sure that it would come with 2 GB RAM.

Ah...I misread your post and thought you were not aware.

I really have no complaints about my 5 and would still use it, but after 3 years of daily abuse (like running in the rain, being thrown by my toddlers, etc), the phone has started a random reboot issue. I'm actually surprised it lasted this long based on the abuse it has endured. If this problem hadn't crept up, I'd be trying to hold out for a 7.

 

[StrangerGuy]

http://www.statista.com/statistics/263401/global-apple-iphone-sales-since-3rd-quarter-2007/

iPhone shipments this quarter vs same quarter one year ago: 47.53M vs 35.2M (+35%, Samsung muuuuuuuuuuuuust reaaaaaaaally jelly)

Shhh everybody, don't let stupid facts like seasonality get in the way of Achtung!

(I have been wanting to do this for so long!)

 

[Eug]

Ah...I misread your post and thought you were not aware.

I really have no complaints about my 5 and would still use it, but after 3 years of daily abuse (like running in the rain, being thrown by my toddlers, etc), the phone has started a random reboot issue. I'm actually surprised it lasted this long based on the abuse it has endured. If this problem hadn't crept up, I'd be trying to hold out for a 7.

The 32-bit iPhone 5 is actually less RAM constrained than the 64-bit iPhone 5s, since both have 1 GB RAM and 32-bit uses less RAM. That said, in brief testing in 9.0, I've noticed a bit of lag occasionally on the iPhone 5, and not really on the 5s. So, I'm guessing that lag has to do with the CPU.

That said, the iPhone 5 is perfectly usable. More than sufficient for iOS 9 and even better, 9.1.

I'd be tempted to sell my 5s and just use my wife's hand-me-down 5, if it weren't for the 5s's better and faster camera, and TouchID. Performance-wise though, the 5 is not a significant problem.

It might be a problem if I had to surf full desktop websites on it, but the screen is too small for that anyway, and mobile websites are fast on it since they're so streamlined.

 

[PricklyPete]

The 32-bit iPhone 5 is actually less RAM constrained than the 64-bit iPhone 5s, since both have 1 GB RAM and 32-bit uses less RAM. That said, in brief testing in 9.0, I've noticed a bit of lag occasionally on the iPhone 5, and not really on the 5s. So, I'm guessing that lag has to do with the CPU.

That said, the iPhone 5 is perfectly usable. More than sufficient for iOS 9 and even better, 9.1.

I'd be tempted to sell my 5s and just use my wife's hand-me-down 5, if it weren't for the 5s's better and faster camera, and TouchID. Performance-wise though, the 5 is not a significant problem.

It might be a problem if I had to surf full desktop websites on it, but the screen is too small for that anyway, and mobile websites are fast on it since they're so streamlined.

Don't get me wrong, I'm definitely excited about all the new features, but I have never felt like my phone was a dog. My wife has no qualms with keeping her 5 for now (as it has suffered little abuse and runs like new).

3D Touch, fingerprint scanner, apple pay, and updated camera will be fun to play with.

 

[Eug]

I was just agreeing with you. Despite occasional lags here and there, the three year old iPhone 5 works just fine in iOS 9.1. My wife has no issues with its performance.

I'm mainly buying the 6s for her because it has a better camera and Live Photos, and because her iPhone 5 only has 16 GB. Actually 16 GB is OK but I need to empty it out every few months now that we have kids - she takes a lot of pictures and videos. CPU/GPU performance was never an issue. Also, she wants a bigger screen, and she almost never uses her phone one-handed so having to use it two-handed with her small hands isn't going to be a problem.

In contrast, its predecessor, the iPhone 4S, is near unusable in iOS 8 and 9. Or at least near unusable for computer geeks like us at AnandTech.

 

[PricklyPete]

I was just agreeing with you. Despite occasional lags here and there, the three year old iPhone 5 works just fine in iOS 9.1. My wife has no issues with its performance.



I'm mainly buying the 6s for her because it has a better camera and Live Photos, and because her iPhone 5 only has 16 GB. Actually 16 GB is OK but I need to empty it out every few months now that we have kids - she takes a lot of pictures and videos. Also, she wants a bigger screen, and she almost never uses her phone one-handed so having to use it two-handed with her small hands isn't going to be a problem. CPU/GPU performance was never an issue.



In contrast, its predecessor, the iPhone 4S, is near unusable in iOS 8 and 9. Or at least near unusable for computer geeks like us at AnandTech.

Good to know 5 works well on 9.1...will wait to update her phone till then. She has 32GB and also fills it up every couple months due to pictures/videos of kids.

The jump from 4 to 5 was huge performance wise...not feeling the 5 to 6s will be as noticeable...which I'm totally cool with as it means I can keep phones longer.

 

[Ns1]

When investors see the likely dismal sales of the upcoming iPhone 6s, prepare for an even bigger meltdown of Apple's shares.
...
I'm betting my money that the iPhone 6s will sell much less than the iPhone 6 with US consumer sentiment getting lower and lower now.

The Chinese smartphone market is pretty much at saturation point. The only other large market now is India, where the Samsung Tizen Z series smartphones are dominating.

:biggrin::biggrin::biggrin:

Well, it's official: Apple sold 13 million iPhone 6s and 6s Plus models in the first three days. That's 30 percent more than the last time around.

 

[Artdeco]

Apple rarely misses analysts' expectations but today they did:

47.5 million iPhones sold in Q2 2015 vs analysts' expectations of 49 million (note that not all of these are iPhone 6, only about 35% of them are)

$49 to $51 billion revenue vs analysts' expectations of $51.13 billion. Revenue is the most important indicator of a company's growth

Profits per share surpassed analysts' expectations at $1.85 per share vs $1.81 per share.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/21/us-apple-results-idUSKCN0PV2AT20150721

Also today, news is out that Samsung maintained its lead over other rivals, whereas Apple's market share dropped by 4.1% from 20.5% to 16.4%.
http://www.gsmarena.com/samsung_top...15_huawei_leads_chinese_brands-news-13164.php

Apple will need to depend on the iPhone 6s and iPhone 6s Plus coming out in September. If the iPhone 6s fails to sell more than the iPhone 6, expect Apple's shares to plummet even further, possibly even below the $100 range.

For some reason, I have a bad feeling about this. The iPhone 6 sold so well because it was a MAJOR form factor change for Apple. It was an even bigger design and form factor change compared to the iPhone 4s to the iPhone 5.

If sales of the iPhone 6s are below that of the iPhone 6, this may be a negative turning point for Apple.

I find it difficult to respond to this thread without getting into trouble. As I've seen moderators suggest numerous times, being stupid isn't grounds for banning someone, but telling someone they're stupid is.

So I'll just leave this here:

To give you a bit of perspective, over the past three days, Apple has sold 3,000 phones per minute, or 50 devices per second.

 

[Thanatosis]

OP: Om nom nom crow

 

[Commodus]

I don't want to indulge too much in schadenfreude, because it's easy to get a prediction wrong. However, this is a friendly reminder that predictions have to be based on logic and historical patterns to stand a chance of coming true.

Clearly, that wasn't the case here. The prediction was based on a "bad feeling," short-term investor reactions and the OP's predispositions: he wants Samsung to dominate the mobile world, and for Apple to die. It's a classic case of trying to make facts fit a preconceived theory, rather than fitting the theory to the facts.

 

[sm625]

My prediction is 68M units during Q4. This is apple's Q1 2016 I believe. There's still plenty of dopes out there who cant find anything better to do with $700-$1000.

 

[Commodus]

My prediction is 68M units during Q4. This is apple's Q1 2016 I believe. There's still plenty of dopes out there who cant find anything better to do with $700-$1000.

In many cases, a person's smartphone is their true primary computer. Why would you not want to lavish money on it if you think you'll see the benefit?

Personally, I suspect Apple is more likely to move around 85-90 million iPhones. It shipped 74.5 million in calendar Q4 (that's fiscal Q1) last year, and the iPhone 6s' launch weekend sales are 30 percent above last year's model. Even if that initial spike isn't directly proportionate to Q4 volumes, it's hard to believe that this isn't reflective of increased demand.

 

[Ns1]

My prediction is 68M units during Q4. This is apple's Q1 2016 I believe. There's still plenty of dopes out there who cant find anything better to do with $700-$1000.

In many cases, a person's smartphone is their true primary computer. Why would you not want to lavish money on it if you think you'll see the benefit?

Even though my phone is not my primary computing device, I cannot think of ANYTHING I use in my daily life more than my phone.

 

[stlc8tr]

Personally, I suspect Apple is more likely to move around 85-90 million iPhones. It shipped 74.5 million in calendar Q4 (that's fiscal Q1) last year, and the iPhone 6s' launch weekend sales are 30 percent above last year's model. Even if that initial spike isn't directly proportionate to Q4 volumes, it's hard to believe that this isn't reflective of increased demand.

China is a launch country this time so that could account for the increased demand. I guess we'll have to see what next quarter's numbers look like.

After all, the OP's prediction was that the 6S/6S+ would be less popular than the 6/6+ so there's an entire year to figure out if this is the case.

 

[StrangerGuy]

There's still plenty of dopes out there who cant find anything better to do with $700-$1000.

Yeah because Apple is putting guns on their heads to buy them at those prices.

Apple haters are pissed because they have no valid excuses; Apple is nowhere close to a monopoly like Wintel did yet they are even more successful in generating profit.

 

[Eug]

China is a launch country this time so that could account for the increased demand.

After all, the OP's prediction was that the 6S/6S+ would be less popular than the 6/6+ so there's an entire year to figure out if this is the case.

Only partially. Analysts think China is responsible for about 2 million units. However, this year for the launch weekend, Apple sold around 3 million more (total 13 million) than last year (10 million), which means probably 1 million more excluding China, or about a 10% increase excluding China.