If it matters to you, this is the rumour monger accuracy track record:
Top Apple Sources in 2022 # Name Accuracy 1 🐟 Ross Young 92.9% 2 🏀 Mark Gurman 86.5% 3 📉 Trendforce 84.5% 4 🎧 52audio 83.3% 5 🕘 9to5Mac 82.8% 6 ❓ MacRumors 72.7% 7 🇨🇳 China Times 72.7% 8 👨💻 Ming-Chi Kuo 72.5% 9 🧻 Jon Prosser 69.1% 10 🍍 Max Weinbach 69% 11 […]
appletrack.com
Mr. Gurman is 88.8% accurate out of 481 rumours. This statistic also illustrates just how much he talks about Apple, since he has well over twice as many rumours attributed to him as the 2nd place rumour monger.
A relatively common Mac announcement period is mid-October to mid November. So, if there is going to be a release, we'll likely hear something within the next 5 weeks. If we don't hear anything by about mid-November, then it's likely there won't be anything until spring 2022 or later.
Note that I exclude the Mac Pro from the discussion, as that one doesn't seem to follow the "rules" for release announcements that the other Macs do.
For the record, I expect new MacBook Pros within the month. No guarantees, but that's my personal prediction, and I'd give it 3:1 odds. I am less convinced about the new Mac mini and new iMac, especially because of the global component shortages, but those are also decent possibilities.
From the advice here and from what I gather elsewhere, the expectation is that they will all be M1X, based off the A14 core.
So, if you're in the market for a new MacBook Pro, does it make sense to wait? Well, that depends.
1. Can you wait? If not, and you absolutely need something now, then of course buy now.
2. Are you an education customer on a limited budget and want new AirPods? If yes then buy now and make use of the Back To School promotion if it's available in your country.
3. Do you need 32 GB? Then yes then wait, since the current M1 MacBook Pro model maxes out at 16 GB.
4. Do you want a new form factor? If yes then wait, since rumour has it it will get a new form factor.
5. Do you think the Touch Bar is stupid, like I do? If yes then wait, since rumour has it the Touch Bar is being killed off and will be replaced by proper function keys.
6. Do you want more ports? If yes then wait, since rumour has it the new MacBook Pros will gain more ports, and a better mix of ports too (like HDMI and SD).
7. Do you want an improved screen? If yes then wait, since rumour has it the MacBook Pros will gain mini-LED screens, with a new 14" size too.
8. Do you like MagSafe charging? If yes then wait, since rumour has it the MacBook Pros will gain MagSafe.
I'm not under any illusion that all of these predictions will necessarily come true, but I think there is a high chance that many of them will, so this is a very reasonable time to wait if you don't absolutely need to buy now.
As for the Apple Silicon Mac Pro, my expectation is that it will appear some time in 2022. I'm curious what they would choose to name those chips.
EDIT:
It turns out Macworld just published their take on this:
Things are happening with Apple's Macs. Let's take a look at what Macs you should think twice about before buying.
www.macworld.com
They suggest:
2021 - New MacBook Pros
2021/2022 - New Mac mini
2022 - New big iMac
2022/2023 - New Mac Pro