Anyone sticking to current Gen for a while?

[Arkaign]

PS3 and original Xbox launches were disasters and priced way too high for most consumers (Xbox more so because PS2 was... PS2 and Gamecube was way cheaper), look at just about everything else.

http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/Price_cuts

With over 1 million pre-orders already the PS4 could easily look like the Wii or PS2's price drop histories. Not to mention we're talking about a matter of months. See you in early 2015.

EDIT: Also LOL at swappable HDD's in Xbox One. External is often cheaper anyway.

We're also talking about an economy that's drastically worse than 2005 and 2006. Most affected are those in the prime demographic of 18-35 year olds. The majority of new jobs created are part time, and many formerly full-time positions have been reduced or are being reduced to part time to escape the ACA mandated health care for 'full time' workers.

There is a certain economic strata of professionals and higher-income brackets that are largely unaffected by the economic disaster that we're seeing in the big picture, and that will be most of the first wave of people that can afford to drop $399-$499 for a video game box on launch (usual hysteria). Of course, many of these will still be purchased by poor people pawning things, getting loans on their car title, using payday loans, or all kinds of similar idiocy. Beyond that, it's going to get thinner and thinner quickly.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/08/04/part-time-low-wage-jobs/2613483/

Launch success of selling through during the initial Q4 hype machine will have zilch to do with Q1 numbers and beyond. A ton of them are probably being bought by scalpers anyway. PS3 was an utter disaster honestly until the major price drops, but one could point to its initial launch where they sold basically everything they could ship that first season and call it a 'success'.

Now PS4 will very likely NOT price drop before hitting pressure from XB1, given that they're starting out with a 20% gap. It will take something major to get PS4 MSRP to move earlier than 2015. However, seeing the XB1 drop to $399 with or without a Kinect is basically guaranteed by November '14 unless their sales are inexplicably strong. If they are more than 10% behind in installed console base by Q3 '14, we may even see a move beyond $399.

The real magic bullet will be $299, just as it was for countless systems before this one. 360 didn't take off huge really until their legit $299 drop in '08. PS3 didn't start really moving until their $299 box in '09.

These companies aren't stupid, they know that the real victory is won by installed base + attachment rate. Sitting on launch pricing for too long is just letting potential sales go out the window (or worse, to the competition if their pricing is substantially better for similar product). They know that a certain number of dedicated buyers will pay the full entry price, but wear that too thin, and you have to cut the pricing to get the next round of new players in the door.

And finally : these new consoles are FAR FAR FAR cheaper to make than the 360/PS3 were to start with.

 

[Arkaign]

Another batch of facts :

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-...show-how-badly-economy-has-tanked-under-obama

Please treat this carefully, it's not meant to be discussed here in a political lens, and one could argue from either political stripe (eg; how much of this damage was already caused by the economic collapse of '08 vs. policy failures afterwards).

The point is that outside of our Anandtech millionaire and billionaire club, the economy is ludicrously terrible right now.

The middle class is dangerously close to disappearing entirely, and look at some of the most startling facts :

*- 53% of US Workers now make less than $30k/year
*- 7 of 8 new jobs are part time
*- 40% of current workers make less in real income than minimum wage earners brought home in 1968
*- 76% of all Americans are living "paycheck to paycheck"
*- Median household income has declined 4 years in a row, totaling an average $4,000 drop
*- 6 million fewer full time employees vs. 2007

It's just an utter mess no matter which way you look at it. It's easy to forget if you're like many of us on AT who work in fields that have been dramatically less affected. I'm lucky enough to work for one of the most successful corporate law firms in the country. At the same time, I've lost count of how many people that I know who have lost their jobs, been cut back, been forced into part time, lost their homes, etc.

 

[Dumac]

Just cancelled my PS4 launch edition from Amazon, so maybe someone without a launch edition will be pleasantly surprised 🙂

 

[Hopeless]

I'll be good with my 360 for quite sometime. I've got a backlog already and it's growing with the live freebies for the next few months and cheep deals I find on SD. Since I don't hardly buy any games at release, just wait for prices to fall to $20 or so means there's still quite a few games I haven't even played.

I'll probably end up with a PS3 long before I move onto the next gen.

 

[RedRooster]

I pre-ordered both today, with the intention of selling one or just taking it back to the store. Glad there was more stock made available, hopefully they'll each get delivered close to day one. Goodbye current gen, I'm done with your pitiful graphics and slow menus! 🙂

 

[HeXen]

I pre-ordered both today, with the intention of selling one or just taking it back to the store. Glad there was more stock made available, hopefully they'll each get delivered close to day one. Goodbye current gen, I'm done with your pitiful graphics and slow menus! 🙂

No doubt there are many, many others that are thinking the exact same things. Personally I kinda doubt there will be such high demand and low stock from those that did not pre order, that there will be very many willing to shell out twice the retail amount on Ebay this time like there was in the past.

 

[Dumac]

I pre-ordered both today, with the intention of selling one or just taking it back to the store. Glad there was more stock made available, hopefully they'll each get delivered close to day one. Goodbye current gen, I'm done with your pitiful graphics and slow menus! 🙂

Screw you. Hope you drop the damn thing on your toe.

 

[RedRooster]

Screw you. Hope you drop the damn thing on your toe.

That's not nice! Bring some beers over, I'll let you use the worn out Mad Catz controller as player two. :awe:

 

[cmdrdredd]

No doubt there are many, many others that are thinking the exact same things. Personally I kinda doubt there will be such high demand and low stock from those that did not pre order, that there will be very many willing to shell out twice the retail amount on Ebay this time like there was in the past.

The difference this time vs last time is these are using readily available parts. No custom CPUs and custom memory configurations etc. So I expect replenishment won't be an issue.

 

[Bman123]

As much as I would like a shiny new console I just can't bring myself to drop the money on it. I think I'm getting burned out on gaming honestly. The only game I saw that I really want I pants vs zombies

 

[Arkaign]

Bookmarking for when it doesn't happen.

I doubt we'll see a price drop until early 2015, except maybe a Kinect-less SKU for Xbox One.

LOL.

Let's look at de-facto price drops in LESS THAN 6 MONTHS, shall we?

First off, we got Forza and Titanfall bundles at the full $499 (a $60 discount compared to launch buyers for those that wanted either of those games, though you could consider it a no-discount situation if you were never going to buy either game).

Then we got all the big retailers dropping the very same bundles to $449 (a $110 discount compared to launch buyers, or a $50 discount even if you threw the game away because you didn't want it).

Then Fry's got in on the action and started giving Forza AND Titanfall together @ $460 (a $150 discount compared to launch buyers, or $40 even if you threw the games in the trash because you didn't want them).

Target had the big discount though. Xbox One + 1 year of XBLG + Titanfall for $449 (a $170 discount compared to launch buyers!).

Considering that the XB1 is now $449 at Walmart, Best Buy, etc, one can consider the discount to be basically locked in by now (with a game to boot).

Now watch for E3. Odds are they will go even further (as just making a $449 price tag 'official' with a press release would be extremely deflated by the price already being at that level for so long in the first place). $399, maybe even $399 with a game will be more likely than not.

I don't even have to start with the price cuts all over the UK and Europe. And many of those came directly from Microsoft themselves, though others came from retailers who couldn't move the inventory they had ordered (reality wasn't as optimistic as their expectations).

'By early 2015?' Oh ye of little faith. If Microsoft gets aggressive enough we may even see a $349 PS4 for the hell of it (that's a pretty big IF though, it would only happen if an aggressive XB1 price cut brought the XB1 into a leading role). By fall 2015 one or both of them will be at $299, mark my words. They can both significantly cut costs by then, and the first one to really break the $300 mark will pick up a TON of marketshare. Historically, even very popular consoles don't get mass penetration until that mark is hit.

 

[MongGrel]

Haven't had a console in at least 20 years, so I guess that would be a no.

 

[Wingznut]

Was wondering how many of us were going to stick with the current Gen consoles after the new ones come out? I was going to pay for the ps4 in full and decided not to.
I will have no trouble staying plenty busy till this time next year playing madden 25, nba 2k14, gta 5 and cod ghosts on the ps3.

As much as I would like a shiny new console I just can't bring myself to drop the money on it. I think I'm getting burned out on gaming honestly.

Didn't you end up buying one console, then the other? 🙂

The only game I saw that I really want I pants vs zombies

Pants vs Zombies sounds like an awesome game!

 

[Arkaign]

Didn't you end up buying one console, then the other? 🙂

Pants vs Zombies sounds like an awesome game!

Lol nice catch. This is a golden thread for some good natured fun and retrospective. It's really fascinating to see what people thought.

 

[gorcorps]

LOL.

Let's look at de-facto price drops in LESS THAN 6 MONTHS, shall we?

First off, we got Forza and Titanfall bundles at the full $499 (a $60 discount compared to launch buyers for those that wanted either of those games, though you could consider it a no-discount situation if you were never going to buy either game).

Then we got all the big retailers dropping the very same bundles to $449 (a $110 discount compared to launch buyers, or a $50 discount even if you threw the game away because you didn't want it).

Then Fry's got in on the action and started giving Forza AND Titanfall together @ $460 (a $150 discount compared to launch buyers, or $40 even if you threw the games in the trash because you didn't want them).

Target had the big discount though. Xbox One + 1 year of XBLG + Titanfall for $449 (a $170 discount compared to launch buyers!).

Considering that the XB1 is now $449 at Walmart, Best Buy, etc, one can consider the discount to be basically locked in by now (with a game to boot).

Now watch for E3. Odds are they will go even further (as just making a $449 price tag 'official' with a press release would be extremely deflated by the price already being at that level for so long in the first place). $399, maybe even $399 with a game will be more likely than not.

I don't even have to start with the price cuts all over the UK and Europe. And many of those came directly from Microsoft themselves, though others came from retailers who couldn't move the inventory they had ordered (reality wasn't as optimistic as their expectations).

'By early 2015?' Oh ye of little faith. If Microsoft gets aggressive enough we may even see a $349 PS4 for the hell of it (that's a pretty big IF though, it would only happen if an aggressive XB1 price cut brought the XB1 into a leading role). By fall 2015 one or both of them will be at $299, mark my words. They can both significantly cut costs by then, and the first one to really break the $300 mark will pick up a TON of marketshare. Historically, even very popular consoles don't get mass penetration until that mark is hit.

Let's not get ahead of ourselves here... $450 was a sale price, not the norm. A quick check at Amazon and Gamestop shows they're at $500 again. But those sales were definitely good for how early they came, and even though it's $500 retail it at least comes with Titanfall now.

 

[Bman123]

Didn't you end up buying one console, then the other? 🙂

Pants vs Zombies sounds like an awesome game!

Haha auto correct got me. Yeah I ended up buying both systems so I could get all the exclusives

 

[Arkaign]

$450 is the defacto price now. WalMart, Best Buy, etc. Combine that with the now standard price matching of most major retailers, and the fact that customers don't like spending $50 more for no reason, and it's here to stay.

The price cuts have already been officially made in the UK and some other markets, though the ones in the states happened too fast to be combined with an official marketing push.

Look for a permanent 'official' price cut to happen at E3, because going back to $499 would be brand suicide for them. They've exhausted the bulk of the dedicated fanbase willing to pay $499 for the item. Similarly, there is not an infinite number of people willing to pay $399 for a PS4 and no game. The prices will have to eventually come down there as well, though there's less justification when you have no competition on price (see : X360 vs. PS3, which gave some people some unrealistic expectations about pricing and the facts of the marketplace).

Also, look at this :

Those numbers are WITH the de-facto and official price cuts in effect. To re-raise the price now would make those trends even worse for them.

So :

Most likely : announcement of new $449 bundle at E3 (with something added to make it stand out like XBLG, and a pick-your-game DD voucher).

Less likely, but possible considering Phil Spencer is not Mattrick : announcement of $399 in some form or fashion.

Somewhat possible : they leave the official price cut out of the press/PR entirely until Fall. This seems less likely considering the poor trending, but would almost certainly have to coincide with a deeper price cut to make an impression at that time.

Virtually impossible : they re-raise the price to $499 and hold it. They have said they're in it to win it, and to do so would basically throw away any chance of being competitive until they dropped the price again.

Finally, these price cuts are quite certainly at the direction/offering from Microsoft themselves (though some retailers have gone above and beyond on their own accord to move extra inventory). The clues abound :

(1)- Retailers are not in the business to lose money, and the margins aren't there on consoles to discount from $499 to $449 without taking a bath.

(2)- The prices come with lots of strings about what can be advertised. Go to Best Buy and WalMart (both places with the $449 price), and look at XB1 pricing. They have agreed to hide the price until you get to the point of actually paying for it.

E3 will be super interesting. The XB1 for the interim is in a poor position until the fall. Many cross-platform titles are coming, and most of those will be advantage to PS4. But E3 can help them a lot if they really get people excited and show their new revised vision for the XB1. Basically anything but what they are showing now. As it stands, the majority of XB1 consoles sold so far have been Nov/Dec '13 in the US market. Titanfall gave a small temporary bump, but has already receded lower than PS4 levels even in their top market.

Do I expect them to sit on their hands? Not if they want to be relevant, or are 'in it to win it'. And although I thought Mattrick was a world class expletive, I think Spencer has what it takes to get things moving again. For the near future it will have to be vision/PR/pricing, as that's all that can be done with a full leadership change in terms of real surprises, but in 6-12 months we should start to see drastic changes, and in 18-24 months see big projects come to bear that have his signature on them.

Anyway, yes I'll bump it up again when the price cuts are official. Beyond the obvious (official price cuts already in the UK, defacto price cuts already in the US), I will wait for one of the following to occur to claim total victory (of price cuts happening before Q1 2015) :

(1)- Microsoft announces $449, $429, $399, or other non-$499 price.

(2)- $449 becomes the constant big-box retailer price for the rest of the year even without official status (meaning that anyone with 3 brain cells can buy it at $449) as so

: http://lmgtfy.com/?q=xbox+one+price+cut

 

[SaurusX]

I haven't got any of the new consoles yet as there hasn't been that killer app (remember when that phrase was the new hotness?) for either platform yet. Once that happens, though, I'll jump in.

If anything I'm going back in time and playing the games on the older consoles that I missed in the first place. The obvious advantage is that outside of the collector's sphere for some titles most of these games are now cheap, but the gameplay is as good as ever. You reach a certain point with graphics where anything beyond is simply gravy, but the real meat and potatoes are already there.

 

[zerocool84]

PS4 won't change in price for a while though. Microsoft is the one that needs the boost so it makes sense that they had to do it. Usually price drops and bundles don't come out for a while after a new console release.

 

[Arkaign]

PS4 won't change in price for a while though. Microsoft is the one that needs the boost so it makes sense that they had to do it. Usually price drops and bundles don't come out for a while after a new console release.

You're almost certainly right regarding the PS4.

As for price cuts within a year, I think the 7th gen (with a myriad of reason price cuts took longer in truly notable ways) skewed people's memories :

http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/Price_cuts

Plenty of price cuts in console history within a year, and that goes way way back there.

 

[Lil Frier]

I was dead-set on waiting until Halo 5 launched to get a One. I though (and still think) that they'll come out with a specially-skinned console for it, like the Halo 4 one. However, my dad popped up the idea of getting a One as a graduation gift, and I've now spent the last week-plus playing the hell out of Forza and Titanfall on my new One (with some Kinect Sports sprinkled in).

Because of that, I'm going to be putting my Halo 4 360 and my collection of games (35 or so) on eBay, along with my headset (screw that $25 adapter) and controllers (guitars as well). I figure all I ever play on 360 now is Halo 4 and Black Ops II, and my cousin (who lives here and has 2 360s) has those games, so if I REALLY wanted to play them, I still could. Getting maybe $250-300 out of a console I never play anymore would be nice, because then I'd have spare cash to grab a second controller (the Titanfall one, of course), and I'd maybe grab a new keyboard and CPU cooler with some of it.

 

[cantholdanymore]

@Arkaign
Getting my discounted ps4 whenever gt7 gets released 🙂

 

[DaveSimmons]

I might get a PS4 during the 2014 holiday sales if they really do release the remastered PS4 version of The Last of Us this year. (I t just showed up on Amazon with a placeholder date.) I still need to play it despite owning a PS3.

I don't have an X1, just a 360 and PS3 (and gaming PC).

 

[Arkaign]

I might get a PS4 during the 2014 holiday sales if they really do release the remastered PS4 version of The Last of Us this year. (I t just showed up on Amazon with a placeholder date.) I still need to play it despite owning a PS3.

I don't have an X1, just a 360 and PS3 (and gaming PC).

Honestly you're in great shape for a good while yet. There were so many great titles released for 360/PS3 that going back and getting the ones you missed for cheap can be extremely rewarding. And of course the PC is a nearly infinite pile of awesomeness in terms of variety.

I'm not saying the people that jumped into XB1/PS4 are dumb or anything even remotely like that, but at the same time it's only for the most dedicated people. The lack of features so far, and the thin libraries at present, well, let's just say that most customers are better off waiting for the time being. Check back in the fall I say, we'll know more about how each company is supporting their product over a solid year, and how the libraries are truly shaping up. At least wait until after E3.

Who knows, Microsoft may amaze us all. And E3 should be full of all kinds of interesting things either way.

 

[Arkaign]

@Arkaign
Getting my discounted ps4 whenever gt7 gets released 🙂

Hahah, that's a good bet.