You guys are serious? The ps4 is a mid range gaming pc with a blu ray player thrown in for $400. I don't even console game but I'm likely buying one just for the 3d blu ray capabilities and it will likely be a much better interface to stream Netflix and prime than my smart tv. That and I might play 1 or 2 games a year is enough for me to throw down the $400. Sony is really giving these away at or below cost and you're looking for a price cut? Wow.
Mark my words, bookmark the thread, and be amazed when it comes true.
Sony may or may not drop the price, but I absolutely guarantee that between the XB1 and PS4 we will see a new SKU with either a bundle, a price drop, or both before Christmas 2014.
Bluray players are like $40 already, mass produced BD drives are even cheaper for the companies that mfg the. 500GB Hard Drives are nothing. The APU is relatively cheap. The power supply is relatively cheap. All of the stuff really isn't that expensive, with the major exception of the 8GB of GDDR5 that's in the PS3 (might be long-term advantage Microsoft as it will give them more leverage in lowering prices while still being profitable unit for unit).
These things are
HUGELY less cutting edge for 2013 than the 360 was in 2005 and PS3 was in 2006. Back then you were dealing with very high end GPUs, large custom CPUs, much higher TDP and power requirements, Bluray was nutty expensive for the PS3, on and on and on.
Add to the equation the economy is crap, both companies are launching at the same time, and the most important thing for both companies is to gain and hold early traction in getting these things into gamers homes. After all, the more gamers get on board, the more likely you are to get one sold to their friends. It's pretty typical for groups of friends to all get the same console in order to play online together. The name of the game is to sell the systems so they can get you on the online subscription, game sales, and microtransactions.
Once the launch hysteria dies down and Q1 2014 sales are near-dead (again, look at Q1 numbers for previous launches), whichever console is falling behind will be under pressure to shake things up.
This is going to be different than it was with the PS3/360 war, not only are these consoles
massively less expensive to make, but they are launching head to head with at least similar prices.
In 2006, Microsoft had no real reason to price drop, because their competition wasn't out for most of the year, and then after launch was already hugely more expensive. Post-PS3 launch, Sony would have loved to have price dropped sooner, but the enormous expense of manufacturing it and limited production capacity made that basically impossible to pull off. All in an economy much much healthier than today.
I'll put $$ on there being a price drop and/or bundle before Dec 1st, 2014. The most likely first possibility is a $399 XB1 bundle. There is also the possibility they will release a Kinect-less SKU.
One must remember that neither the PS3 nor 360 sold all that much at launch pricing. Sales were flat outside of Q4 for the most part, and sales rates really didn't start climbing dramatically until the price drops. Examine the numbers for yourself, 360 sold 5 million year one, but slipped to just over 3 million the next year. PS3 was even worse, selling out the initial shipment, but sales were outright horrible at $599 and even $499. PS3 didn't start gaining steam until they reached $399, and even then was somewhat sluggish. 360 started gaining
serious steam when
$299 models with decent HDDs in fall 2008.
I've been watching and correctly predicting gaming market movements for the better part of three decades, with a great deal of connection to the industry, along with a great deal of interest in economic indicators and statistics. In my eyes, I would be stunned if we DIDN'T see at least one price drop or new SKU between now and next year. It could come in any number of ways :
Instead of a $399 bare PS4, we might see PS4 + Eyetoy for $399. Or PS4 + GT6, whatever. Instead of a $499 XB1, we might see a $429 XB1 w/Forza. Etc.
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