Anyone notice crude oil prices today?

[Duddy]

OMG!!! I checked prices this morning before markets opened and guessed that it would rise about another 75 cents.

I check it just now after work and it's $134.20!!!!

WTF happened for it to rise over $4 in a day?!

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: Duddy
OMG!!! I checked prices this morning before markets opened and guessed that it would rise about another 75 cents.

I check it just now after work and it's $134.20!!!!

WTF happened for it to rise over $4 in a day?!

Oil supplies took an unexpected dip this week as did refined products. Refined products taking a dip doesn't suprise me since the refineries are cutting back production because of lack of profit. Any news, good or bad lately, drives the price up. It's a bull(shit) market and it's going to run until the big boys (hedge funds and speculators) quit playing the game (or even reverse course and short oil on the way down).

 

[miketheidiot]

absolutely nothing

welcome to the age of the oil bubble

 

[StageLeft]

I echo the last two. Fvcking nothing happened in the last day or even really in the last four months, but that hasn't stopped a 60% appreciation in a known commodity. The good news is that when it pops the pendulum will overswing as it always does when things pop and then we'll end up making some of this on the backend, like a built in short.

at least that's my hope

 

[ponyo]

What if this rise is really in anticipation of something happening with Iran this summer or fall. You heard the saying, "Stocks don't lie, people do." This case, the oil prices don't lie, people do.

 

[Tom]

i predict it will drop to $40 within 18 months.

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: Tom
i predict it will drop to $40 within 18 months.

You forgot the 1 in front of that 40. Just ask all those people who predicted $30 before $80 just over a year ago....now we're looking at 130+.

 

[Tom]

Originally posted by: Engineer

Originally posted by: Tom
i predict it will drop to $40 within 18 months.

You forgot the 1 in front of that 40. Just ask all those people who predicted $30 before $80 just over a year ago....now we're looking at 130+.

speculators that used to chase real estate are now chasing oil, the timing you mentioned makes it pretty clear.

these oil prices are just as unsustainable as the real estate bubble. demand for oil is elastic, it's just takes time. but it will drop at these prices.

 

[Duddy]

http://futuresource.quote.com/...t=future%2Cindex&us=cl

And it's at 134.73 now.

 

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: Tom

Originally posted by: Engineer

Originally posted by: Tom
i predict it will drop to $40 within 18 months.

You forgot the 1 in front of that 40. Just ask all those people who predicted $30 before $80 just over a year ago....now we're looking at 130+.

speculators that used to chase real estate are now chasing oil, the timing you mentioned makes it pretty clear.

these oil prices are just as unsustainable as the real estate bubble. demand for oil is elastic, it's just takes time. but it will drop at these prices.

I agree it will drop. To $40? Maybe. My guess is we'll see sub $3 gas for '09 summer driving season. I'll guess $2.75 gallon next summer. But who really knows? If I knew, I would be buying leap puts on something like USO.

I doubt Tom has wagered any money on his prediction.

 

[desy]

Actually demand for oil is very Inelastic, demand doesn't change much with price variability IE price of oil has doubled but has effected a 2% decrease in consumption in NA
Most speculators are now going long, meaning they don't see it coming down.

Problem ConocoPhillipsl heavily invests in setting up capacity in Argentina. Chavez siezes control and they lose their investment.
Problem Mexico and Russia don't allow Big Oil access to their resources, same as many OPEC countries.
Problem there are many less exporting countries today than there were 10 yrs ago, China used to export, Britain used to export.
Problem the remaining countries that do export now have increased domestic consumption leaving less to be exported, partially because they subsidize consumption.
Problem Shell invests heavily in Nigeria, constant supply disruption from Nigerians.

 

[1prophet]

Originally posted by: Duddy
OMG!!! I checked prices this morning before markets opened and guessed that it would rise about another 75 cents.

I check it just now after work and it's $134.20!!!!

WTF happened for it to rise over $4 in a day?!

Really? Now back to the most important thing on MSNBC front page as of 10:50 PM Eastern time.

America Picks a New 'Idol'
Winner of 'David vs. David' battle revealed in show's seventh season finale
Vote: Did the best David win?

Probably the most important vote for most Americans.

 

[BarneyFife]

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: Tom

Originally posted by: Engineer

Originally posted by: Tom
i predict it will drop to $40 within 18 months.

You forgot the 1 in front of that 40. Just ask all those people who predicted $30 before $80 just over a year ago....now we're looking at 130+.

speculators that used to chase real estate are now chasing oil, the timing you mentioned makes it pretty clear.

these oil prices are just as unsustainable as the real estate bubble. demand for oil is elastic, it's just takes time. but it will drop at these prices.

I agree it will drop. To $40? Maybe. My guess is we'll see sub $3 gas for '09 summer driving season. I'll guess $2.75 gallon next summer. But who really knows? If I knew, I would be buying leap puts on something like USO.

I doubt Tom has wagered any money on his prediction.

No way will it go to under $3 EVER again.

 

[mozirry]

I am so happy I just got a cheapo 4 cyl saturn right now

i would be dying trying to fill my 5.3cyl v8 right now =)

 

[conehead433]

Bad news for the oil companies. I have a bicycle with over 60.000 miles. Looks like I'll be using it more often. I just wish more people would give them the finger.

 

[soccerballtux]

I don't know man, how are we supposed to keep track of this stuff without DMCowen?

 

[soccerballtux]

Originally posted by: desy
Actually demand for oil is very Inelastic, demand doesn't change much with price variability IE price of oil has doubled but has effected a 2% decrease in consumption in NA
Most speculators are now going long, meaning they don't see it coming down.

Problem ConocoPhillipsl heavily invests in setting up capacity in Argentina. Chavez siezes control and they lose their investment.
Problem Mexico and Russia don't allow Big Oil access to their resources, same as many OPEC countries.
Problem there are many less exporting countries today than there were 10 yrs ago, China used to export, Britain used to export.
Problem the remaining countries that do export now have increased domestic consumption leaving less to be exported, partially because they subsidize consumption.
Problem Shell invests heavily in Nigeria, constant supply disruption from Nigerians.

poor guys
first you yell at them for spamming
now this

 

[desy]

wha?
You din't like that?

 

[trenchfoot]

Originally posted by: conehead433
Bad news for the oil companies. I have a bicycle with over 60.000 miles. Looks like I'll be using it more often. I just wish more people would give them the finger.

i've been using public transportation and giving the oil robber barons the royal finger ever since gas hit $2.75/gal. quite qwhile ago. instead of filling up once a week for ~$40.00 i visit the pumps every 6-1/2 weeks since i started riding the bus. and since i work for the transportation company whose buses i ride on, i get to ride for free.

 

[crisscross]

Imbalances of Power By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN There has been much debate in this campaign about which of our enemies the next U.S. president should deign to talk to. The real story, the next president may discover, though, is how few countries are waiting around for us to call. It is hard to remember a time when more shifts in the global balance of power are happening at once ? with so few in America?s favor. Let?s start with the most profound one: More and more, I am convinced that the big foreign policy failure that will be pinned on this administration is not the failure to make Iraq work, as devastating as that has been. It will be one with much broader balance-of-power implications ? the failure after 9/11 to put in place an effective energy policy. It baffles me that President Bush would rather go to Saudi Arabia twice in four months and beg the Saudi king for an oil price break than ask the American people to drive 55 miles an hour, buy more fuel-efficient cars or accept a carbon tax or gasoline tax that might actually help free us from what he called our ?addiction to oil.? The failure of Mr. Bush to fully mobilize the most powerful innovation engine in the world ? the U.S. economy ? to produce a scalable alternative to oil has helped to fuel the rise of a collection of petro-authoritarian states ? from Russia to Venezuela to Iran ? that are reshaping global politics in their own image. If this huge transfer of wealth to the petro-authoritarians continues, power will follow. According to Congressional testimony Wednesday by the energy expert Gal Luft, with oil at $200 a barrel, OPEC could ?potentially buy Bank of America in one month worth of production, Apple computers in a week and General Motors in just three days.? But that?s not all. Two compelling new books have just been published that describe two other big power shifts: ?The Post-American World,? by Fareed Zakaria, the editor of Newsweek International, and ?Superclass? by David Rothkopf, a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment. Mr. Zakaria?s central thesis is that while the U.S. still has many unique assets, ?the rise of the rest? ? the Chinas, the Indias, the Brazils and even smaller nonstate actors ? is creating a world where many other countries are slowly moving up to America?s level of economic clout and self-assertion, in every realm. ?Today, India has 18 all-news channels of its own,? notes Zakaria. ?And the perspectives they provide are very different from those you will get in the Western media. The rest now has the confidence to present its own narrative, where it is at the center.? For too long, argues Zakaria, America has taken its many natural assets ? its research universities, free markets and diversity of human talent ? and assumed that they will always compensate for our low savings rate or absence of a health care system or any strategic plan to improve our competitiveness. ?That was fine in a world when a lot of other countries were not performing,? argues Zakaria, but now the best of the rest are running fast, working hard, saving well and thinking long term. ?They have adopted our lessons and are playing our game,? he said. If we don?t fix our political system and start thinking strategically about how to improve our competitiveness, he added, ?the U.S. risks having its unique and advantageous position in the world erode as other countries rise.? Mr. Rothkopf?s book argues that on many of the most critical issues of our time, the influence of all nation-states is waning, the system for addressing global issues among nation-states is more ineffective than ever, and therefore a power void is being created. This void is often being filled by a small group of players ? ?the superclass? ? a new global elite, who are much better suited to operating on the global stage and influencing global outcomes than the vast majority of national political leaders. Some of this new elite ?are from business and finance,? says Rothkopf. ?Some are members of a kind of shadow elite ? criminals and terrorists. Some are masters of new or traditional media; some are religious leaders, and a few are top officials of those governments that do have the ability to project their influence globally.? The next president will have to manage these new rising states and these new rising individuals and networks, while wearing the straightjacket left in the Oval Office by Mr. Bush. ?Call it the triple deficit,? said Mr. Rothkopf. ?A fiscal deficit that will soon have us choosing between rationed health care, sufficient education, adequate infrastructure and traditional levels of defense spending, a trade deficit that has us borrowing from our rivals to the point of real vulnerability, and a geopolitical deficit that is a legacy of Iraq, which may result in hesitancy to take strong stands where we must.? The first rule of holes is when you?re in one, stop digging. When you?re in three, bring a lot of shovels.

Link

Article on nytimes. Don't ever stop driving your SUV's though how else can the poor Arabs fund terror.

 

[sportage]

On the nightly news they said United now charges $15 for bags or maybe it was EACH bag you check in, in order to re coop losses due to oil costs. They sounded like the cost of oil threatened the survival of United Airlines.
And someone else on the show said to expect $12 a gal gas soon.

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: BarneyFife

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: Tom

Originally posted by: Engineer

Originally posted by: Tom
i predict it will drop to $40 within 18 months.

You forgot the 1 in front of that 40. Just ask all those people who predicted $30 before $80 just over a year ago....now we're looking at 130+.

speculators that used to chase real estate are now chasing oil, the timing you mentioned makes it pretty clear.

these oil prices are just as unsustainable as the real estate bubble. demand for oil is elastic, it's just takes time. but it will drop at these prices.

I agree it will drop. To $40? Maybe. My guess is we'll see sub $3 gas for '09 summer driving season. I'll guess $2.75 gallon next summer. But who really knows? If I knew, I would be buying leap puts on something like USO.

I doubt Tom has wagered any money on his prediction.

No way will it go to under $3 EVER again.

How can you people be so myopic? It was sub $3 quite recently. It's not like this is a new commodity and half the oil fields in the world just dried up. It has had an unnatural spike. $40 may be a stretch and probably is, but sub $3 wouldn't take a massive reduction in per-barrel costs at all and they are wildly above their "true" value now.

Bad news for the oil companies. I have a bicycle with over 60.000 miles. Looks like I'll be using it more often. I just wish more people would give them the finger.

I am a cyclist and realize that bike commuting is not reasonable for most people. Safety and cleaning and time issues and weather aside, the shorter your commute, the less impact the bike makes on gas and the longer your commute the less likely you are to want to spend two hours each day riding to work. It is not a helpful solution at all, really.

And someone else on the show said to expect $12 a gal gas soon.

People say a lot of sh*t, don't they?

 

[tvarad]

This is starting to look like Enron scamming California during the 1990s electrical de-regulation "crisis". Here's wishing that OPEC meets the same fate as Enron.

 

[The Green Bean]

Sucks for me. My Currency has devalued by 15% because of crude prices even against the dollar. Death to trading oil in $.

 

[LegendKiller]

Originally posted by: tvarad
This is starting to look like Enron scamming California during the 1990s electrical de-regulation "crisis". Here's wishing that OPEC meets the same fate as Enron.

This isn't OPEC's fault.