Another Hurricane Heading Our Way... fvck

[Vortex22]

WTF

 

[Vortex22]

My power was out for a week with the last one. This damn hurricane needs to miss Florida.

 

[CrackRabbit]

Send it this way i could use a week off of work

 

[Anubis]

its your own fault for moveing there

 

[yankeesfan]

ehhh, won't be as strong as Charley.

 

[Tremulant]

The last one missed us (thank god), but I hear this one is headed straight for us. (In Coral Springs area)

 

[Eli]

<nelson> HAA HAA </nelson>

Don't like it? Move. That's what you get for living in hurricane territory.

 

[Psycho18]

Frances can blow me!
<----- Lives in Palm Bay

 

[wckd]

anyone know if the path of this storm will bring it up along the east coast towards the carolinas?

 

[Vortex22]

Originally posted by: yankeesfan
ehhh, won't be as strong as Charley.

Uhhh it's already up to 135 mph and is still many days away. They said it will most likely be category 5 in the next 2 days.

 

[pulse8]

I'm supposed to fly out to Miami next Thursday.

 

[yankeesfan]

Originally posted by: Vortex22
<blockquote>quote:
<hr><i>Originally posted by: <b>yankeesfan</b></i>
ehhh, won't be as strong as Charley.<hr></blockquote>

Uhhh it's already up to 135 mph and is still many days away. They said it will most likely be category 5 in the next 2 days.

you're right, i skimmed an article but didn't read all of it

 

[Carbo]

No one has a clue as to where FrannyBabe is headed. It's a bit early to be pushing the panic button. Remind your neighbors not to count on you in a crisis.

 

[sharkeeper]

NHC

Is is far too early to tell where this hurricane will make landfall if it does.

People in the SE U.S., Bermuda, and Bahamas need to monitor this closely and review your hurricane preparation plans at this time.

Cheers!

 

[Mill]

Originally posted by: Carbo
No one has a clue as to where FrannyBabe is headed. It's a bit early to be pushing the panic button. Remind your neighbors not to count on you in a crisis.

NHC said for the whole SE to be on guard in their 5PM discussion.

 

[sharkeeper]

NHC said for the whole SE to be on guard in their 5PM discussion.

Hurricane Frances Discussion Number 16


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 28, 2004



Frances has continued to strengthen while maintaining a 20 nmi
diameter eye. The initial intensity is set at 115 kt based on a
Dvorak intensity estimate of t6.0...or 115 kt...from both TAFB and
SAB...a 3-hr average ODT of t5.9...or 113 kt...a 2.5-hr average ODT
of t6.0...and a subsequent increase in the Dvorak data T-number to
t6.5...or 127 kt...since the 18z satellite estimates were made.
Based on this information...Frances is now a category 4 hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale.

The initial motion is 305/08. Frances remains on track and appears
to be making a turn back toward the west-northwest. Otherwise...
there is no change to the previous track forecasts or reasonings.
Most of the NHC model guidance agrees on gradually building the
subtropical ridge westward to the north of Frances throughout the
forecast period. The NHC running track errors through 28/18z are
44...71...and 104 nmi at 24-...48-...and 72-hr...respectively.
These errors are half our average errors...and are better than all
of the computer models...including the consensus models. Therefore
...We have a fair degree of confidence in our forecast track...which
remains between the GFS model to the south and the UKMET model to
the north. The NOGAPS model has been by far the worse performing
model with its strong right of track bias...so it was ignored for
this package. While our current forecast errors are quite good...
there is still enough uncertainty in the longer time periods to make
it too early to try and determine if...when...and where Frances
will make landfall. However...now would be a good time for everyone
in the southeastern U.S...the Bahamas...and the Turks and Caicos
Islands to check their hurricane preparedness plans and supplies.

Frances is embedded in a low-shear environment with excellent
outflow in all quadrants...including an outflow channel to the
north. The SSTs between 62-68w longitude are near 29c...so at least
some additional slow intensification should occur. It is possible
that Frances could even reach near-category 5 intensity at any time
during the forecast period...but a better opportunity would be
after 84 hours when the hurricane will be moving over near-30c SSTs
when a 50-60 kt northerly wind speed maximum is forecast by the GFS
...UKMET...GFDL...and NOGAPS models to dig southward along the east
side of Frances...enhancing the outflow in the eastern semicircle.

Forecaster Stewart

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 28/2100z 17.9n 52.6w 115 kt
12hr VT 29/0600z 18.7n 53.9w 120 kt
24hr VT 29/1800z 19.4n 55.8w 125 kt
36hr VT 30/0600z 20.0n 58.0w 125 kt
48hr VT 30/1800z 20.5n 60.5w 125 kt
72hr VT 31/1800z 21.3n 65.4w 125 kt
96hr VT 01/1800z 22.5n 70.5w 125 kt
120hr VT 02/1800z 24.0n 75.5w 125 kt



If the UKMET holds out, MIA is in trouble.

Cheers!

 

[DurocShark]

Originally posted by: CrackRabbit
Send it this way <img src="i/expressions/face-icon-small-happy.gif" border="0"> i could use a week off of work

Heh... Any way to kick that thing over to SoCal? There are a lot of complacent fools here that freak out when it sprinkles...

:roll:

 

[Actaeon]

Damn... Charley was pretty bad too.

Ugh...

 

[Nitemare]

Originally posted by: sharkeeper
<blockquote>quote:
<hr>NHC said for the whole SE to be on guard in their 5PM discussion. <hr></blockquote>

<b>Hurricane Frances Discussion Number 16


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 28, 2004



Frances has continued to strengthen while maintaining a 20 nmi
diameter eye. The initial intensity is set at 115 kt based on a
Dvorak intensity estimate of t6.0...or 115 kt...from both TAFB and
SAB...a 3-hr average ODT of t5.9...or 113 kt...a 2.5-hr average ODT
of t6.0...and a subsequent increase in the Dvorak data T-number to
t6.5...or 127 kt...since the 18z satellite estimates were made.
Based on this information...Frances is now a category 4 hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale.

The initial motion is 305/08. Frances remains on track and appears
to be making a turn back toward the west-northwest. Otherwise...
there is no change to the previous track forecasts or reasonings.
Most of the NHC model guidance agrees on gradually building the
subtropical ridge westward to the north of Frances throughout the
forecast period. The NHC running track errors through 28/18z are
44...71...and 104 nmi at 24-...48-...and 72-hr...respectively.
These errors are half our average errors...and are better than all
of the computer models...including the consensus models. Therefore
...We have a fair degree of confidence in our forecast track...which
remains between the GFS model to the south and the UKMET model to
the north. The NOGAPS model has been by far the worse performing
model with its strong right of track bias...so it was ignored for
this package. While our current forecast errors are quite good...
there is still enough uncertainty in the longer time periods to make
it too early to try and determine if...when...and where Frances
will make landfall. However...now would be a good time for everyone
in the southeastern U.S...the Bahamas...and the Turks and Caicos
Islands to check their hurricane preparedness plans and supplies.

Frances is embedded in a low-shear environment with excellent
outflow in all quadrants...including an outflow channel to the
north. The SSTs between 62-68w longitude are near 29c...so at least
some additional slow intensification should occur. It is possible
that Frances could even reach near-category 5 intensity at any time
during the forecast period...but a better opportunity would be
after 84 hours when the hurricane will be moving over near-30c SSTs
when a 50-60 kt northerly wind speed maximum is forecast by the GFS
...UKMET...GFDL...and NOGAPS models to dig southward along the east
side of Frances...enhancing the outflow in the eastern semicircle.

Forecaster Stewart

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 28/2100z 17.9n 52.6w 115 kt
12hr VT 29/0600z 18.7n 53.9w 120 kt
24hr VT 29/1800z 19.4n 55.8w 125 kt
36hr VT 30/0600z 20.0n 58.0w 125 kt
48hr VT 30/1800z 20.5n 60.5w 125 kt
72hr VT 31/1800z 21.3n 65.4w 125 kt
96hr VT 01/1800z 22.5n 70.5w 125 kt
120hr VT 02/1800z 24.0n 75.5w 125 kt

</b>

If the UKMET holds out, MIA is in trouble.

Cheers!

Ouch, there was a high pressure front hanging out right off the coast of Virginia as well that will assure that it does not go back out to sea. It's going to be a doozy wherever it lands. It will slap old Charley around like a red-headed stepchild.

 

[Farbio]

this whole area - central fl, will be in a panic should it be announced its heading this way. there's already enough problems with finding wood and such - its only gonna get worse

 

[cucumber]

Originally posted by: Anubis
its your own fault for moveing there

What a dumb thing to say. Did you choose to live where you do based on the weather?

It's not like there are major hurricanes always hitting fla. Charley was the last major storm since andrew. The hurricanes between these were realy more just a nuisance than a serious threat.

 

[Nitemare]

Originally posted by: cucumber
<blockquote>quote:
<hr><i>Originally posted by: <b>Anubis</b></i>
its your own fault for moveing there<hr></blockquote>

What a dumb thing to say. Did you choose to live where you do based on the weather?

I don't live in Alaska because of the weather

 

[Kalvin00]

Also keep in mind it could cross over Florida, enter the Gulf, and make landfall anywhere along the Gulf Coast...but it's still way too early to say.

 

[cucumber]

sh1t. You got me there. Kind of an extreme example but still true. Fla isn't realy so bad though.

 

[WannaFly]

Wow I need to watch more news! I hope it doesn't come this way. UCF was lucky there were no student on campus when charley rolled through, couldnt imagine how hellish it would be with 10,000 students on campus(I work for the UCF PD)