Another Housing thread..

azazyel

Diamond Member
Oct 6, 2000
5,872
1
81
Well, I wasn't in a position to by a house until about this year. However, seeing the current trend of 'interest only loans' and the rising of Federal interest rates I might hold off and see if the pacific north west market goes on the decline. I just figure if interest rates get too high a lot of first time buyers may not be read for the extra $$ in payments


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Fed raises rates, signals more to come By Glenn Somerville


The Federal Reserve raised U.S. interest rates on Tuesday for the 12th straight time, taking them to the highest level in more than four years and indicating more hikes will be needed to keep inflation at bay.

The central bank's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee, expressing concern over potential inflation pressures, voted unanimously to raise the benchmark federal funds rate charged on overnight loans between banks a quarter percentage point to 4 percent.

The move extended a campaign of rate rises the Fed initiated in mid-2004 and took overnight borrowing costs to a level last seen in June 2001.

In a statement outlining its widely expected decision, the Fed described monetary policy as accommodative -- its way of saying more hikes are needed -- and said recent hurricanes were unlikely to derail the economic expansion.

"Elevated energy prices and hurricane-related disruptions in economic activity have temporarily depressed output and employment," the Fed said in its post-meeting statement.

"However, monetary policy accommodation, coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing ongoing support to economic activity that will likely be augmented by planned rebuilding in the hurricane-affected areas," it added.

Once again, the Fed said it was worried high energy prices could add to inflation pressures, although it said inflation outside of food and energy prices, and expectations of future inflation over the long haul were still contained.

"With underlying inflation expected to be contained, the committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured," the statement said.

The Fed has been aiming to bring short-term rates to neutral -- a rate that neither hinders growth nor fires inflation -- to sustain the economy's expansion.

Exactly where that level is remains unclear though private-sector analysts speculate it's around 4.5 percent.

Recent comments by Fed policy-makers suggest they still have some ways to go before they will feel comfortable pausing in the rate-hike campaign, which they kicked off in June 2004.

"We are considerably closer to where policy needs to be than we were 16 months ago, but we are not yet at a point where we can stop and watch the economy evolve for a while," Fed Governor Donald Kohn told a Pittsburgh audience two weeks ago.

Costlier energy is one factor making the Fed wary.

Oil prices that had jumped to a record $70.85 a barrel shortly after hurricane Katrina struck in late August were below $60 on Tuesday, but there were still concerns about refining capacity as the prime winter heating season nears.

Meanwhile, economic growth has remained durable in the face of costlier energy and the heavy damage to the U.S. Gulf Coast region caused by Katrina and late-September's Hurricane Rita.

The government said last week that growth in gross domestic product -- a gauge of total goods and services output within U.S. borders -- accelerated to a 3.8 percent annual rate in the third quarter from the second quarter's 3.3 percent.

So far, higher interest rates do not seem to be affecting a sizzling housing market. The Commerce Department said on Tuesday that construction spending climbed 0.5 percent in September to a record annual rate of $1.12 trillion, largely because of more home building.

In the statement outlining its action, the Fed said upside and downside risks to its twin goals of sustainable growth and price stability remained "roughly equal."

The policy committee also reiterated it would focus on data in making its future rate decisions, even though it thought a gradual course of increases was the most likely outcome.

In concert with its action on the key overnight rate, the Fed lifted the largely symbolic discount rate a matching quarter-point to 5 percent.

The U.S. central bank is widely expected to keep raising rates at least through the tenure of current Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, which ends in January. The remaining two meetings under the Greenspan era are scheduled for December 13 and January 31.

Betting was about even in futures markets that President George W. Bush's nominee to replace Greenspan, former Fed Governor Ben Bernanke, will oversee one more rate rise in March when he chairs his first policy-setting meeting.
 

IronWing

No Lifer
Jul 20, 2001
73,189
34,518
136
That's a tough decision. If you buy now you might get burned on price, if you wait you will get burned on rates. Time to find one of those mortgage calculators and start punching the numbers to see which hurts more in the long run. Trying to calculate the present value of money under several scenarios can make your brain hurt.
 

azazyel

Diamond Member
Oct 6, 2000
5,872
1
81
Originally posted by: ironwing
That's a tough decision. If you buy now you might get burned on price, if you wait you will get burned on rates. Time to find one of those mortgage calculators and start punching the numbers to see which hurts more in the long run. Trying to calculate the present value of money under several scenarios can make your brain hurt.

I am pretty sure though that I can qualify for a decent rate, I have almost perfect credit. It's just that the housing market in Seattle is completely overstated. I live in a not so nice part of town and even the worst s-holes are going for over $300K.
 

Genx87

Lifer
Apr 8, 2002
41,091
513
126
Hard to say, depends if the housing market continues to rise. Unless you think it will somehow fall out you are probably ok. Interest rates wont come down for a couple of years or more.

I got in July at 4 7/8s on a 7 year arm.Hopefully by the time I move to a variable rate the interest rates will be bottoming out. My dad had an arm where he was paying 2.5% interest. That is basically free money.
 

azazyel

Diamond Member
Oct 6, 2000
5,872
1
81
Originally posted by: Genx87
Hard to say, depends if the housing market continues to rise. Unless you think it will somehow fall out you are probably ok. Interest rates wont come down for a couple of years or more.

I got in July at 4 7/8s on a 7 year arm.Hopefully by the time I move to a variable rate the interest rates will be bottoming out. My dad had an arm where he was paying 2.5% interest. That is basically free money.

It has been showing some cooling in the houseing costs I just hope it continues.

http://www.boston.com/business/articles...reas_housing_market_favors_the_buyers/
 

Antisocial Virge

Diamond Member
Dec 13, 1999
6,578
0
0
Wife and I are waiting for the market (we hope) to tank a bit. I would rather pay higher interest rates on a better house that lower rates on a crap house that was way overpriced.

EDIT: Whats the catch on these interest only loans? Does it come back to bite you in the ass in a few years? I expect people will be in trouble over them.
 

Slew Foot

Lifer
Sep 22, 2005
12,379
96
86
IO loans are only IO for about 3 years then you being paying off interest (with much larger payments). So the mortgage companies lure stupid people into buying a 500K house with a monthly payment of $1200 for the first three years, which then ends up balooning to $3000 (or so) after that.

The housing market is cooling off even in CA. Though prices are flat (maybe down a little) there is a huge oversupply now, especially in the central valley. I heard on the radio that there are ten homes for sale for every interested buyer, we'll see how this pans out for prices.
 
Jun 27, 2005
19,216
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Originally posted by: azazyel
Well, I wasn't in a position to by a house until about this year. However, seeing the current trend of 'interest only loans' and the rising of Federal interest rates I might hold off and see if the pacific north west market goes on the decline. I just figure if interest rates get too high a lot of first time buyers may not be read for the extra $$ in payments


You do know that the Fed doesn't set mortgage rates, right? When they raise short term interest rates it doesn'thave anything to do with mortgages.
 

ntdz

Diamond Member
Aug 5, 2004
6,989
0
0
Originally posted by: ironwing
That's a tough decision. If you buy now you might get burned on price, if you wait you will get burned on rates. Time to find one of those mortgage calculators and start punching the numbers to see which hurts more in the long run. Trying to calculate the present value of money under several scenarios can make your brain hurt.

It would probably be better to wait for prices to come down, the only problem with that is we have no idea when, or even if, they will come down.
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,686
136
Interest rates will vary in the long run, but the mortgage payment won't ever go down on a house you paid too much to get.. If prices dip, you're left holding the bag. And rates are bound to depress prices eventually.

It's not that much of an issue if you never need to go anywhere, if you end up staying the rest of your life. OTOH, negative equity and high payments can limit your opportunities down the road... Reversal of fortunes on the employment front of force default under such circumstances. Refinancing, borrowing against equity carried a lot of folks through the recent downturn, and you can't do that if you don't have any equity...

I don't envy anbody contemplating a real estate purchase today, not even the flippers who can afford to take a loss if required. I'd probably hold out, save my money, particularly if my present situation were advantageous and amenable... It seems likely that we're approaching a speculative market peak, which is defined as a lousy time to buy...
 
Oct 30, 2004
11,442
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Originally posted by: ironwing
That's a tough decision. If you buy now you might get burned on price, if you wait you will get burned on rates. Time to find one of those mortgage calculators and start punching the numbers to see which hurts more in the long run. Trying to calculate the present value of money under several scenarios can make your brain hurt.

It's hard to say. On the one hand the nation suffers from a population explosion. From 1990-2000 the U.S. suffered a population increase of 32.7 million or about 12%. Land around city areas is limited and people do need a place to live, and with the rising cost of gas, living further and further away from the city (to save money) is becoming increasingly impractical. So, if that current trend continues, presumably the value of a house in the suburbs and its land will also increase.

However, that assumes that much of the population increase also represents an increase in the number of Americans who are middle class since the poor can't really afford facny (or even modest) houses. If the nation's employment market continues to tank and the overall size and health of the middle class decrease due to global labor wage arbitrage, then the increasing value of the house might not outpace inflation.

Another issue is the possibility that the neighborhood where the house is located could go into the toilet. What if blacks and Hispanics start to move into the neighborbood and the overall value of houses in the neighborhood decreases as whites move further and further out? The property values might still increase some but not as much as if the house were located in a better area. (OK, maybe it's not like that in your city, but I grew up in the Detroit area where we have white cities and suburbs and black cities and inner-ring suburbs. The neighborhood my folks grew up in is almost a ghetto now and the one I grew up in is now mostly black; all the whites moved further away from the city ("white flight"). The city of Detroit itself is emptying out as everyone flees it.)

 

digiram

Diamond Member
Apr 17, 2004
3,991
172
106
I'm closing on a home in a couple of weeks. Good thing I locked on to the interest rates in August.
 

azazyel

Diamond Member
Oct 6, 2000
5,872
1
81
Originally posted by: Whoozyerdaddy
Originally posted by: azazyel
Well, I wasn't in a position to by a house until about this year. However, seeing the current trend of 'interest only loans' and the rising of Federal interest rates I might hold off and see if the pacific north west market goes on the decline. I just figure if interest rates get too high a lot of first time buyers may not be read for the extra $$ in payments


You do know that the Fed doesn't set mortgage rates, right? When they raise short term interest rates it doesn'thave anything to do with mortgages.

no kidding?

(Excerpt from elsewhere)

"Mortgage rates are tied to the 10-year treasury bond (not the prime rate) because the average length of a mortgage is 10 years. Traditionally, the mortgage rates run about 2% higher than the T-bond rate. The t-bond rate is set by _expectations_ of what the market will do. ... So, basically, it's tied to the t-bond because it's a similar investment timeframe."

But if the interest rate keeps climbing we're going to see a decrease in spending. This allows the market to dip.