another housing bubble in the works?

[brainhulk]

low rates + low inventory + investors/flippers = ?

http://www.ocregister.com/articles/offers-381617-buyers-homes.html

 

[BoomerD]

We're selling our house in NorCal. According to our realtor, even though there have been a shit-ton of houses foreclosed, the banks are holding on to them rather than dumping them on the market. If they didn't hold them, they'd push the market even lower. That creates an artificial shortage...causing prices to rise.
MOST of the offers we got were from investors, but we accepted the offer from a family who is buying the house to live in it. If things continue to go right, it will close within a couple of weeks. <crosses fingers>

 

[OILFIELDTRASH]

We're selling our house in NorCal. According to our realtor, even though there have been a shit-ton of houses foreclosed, the banks are holding on to them rather than dumping them on the market. If they didn't hold them, they'd push the market even lower. That creates an artificial shortage...causing prices to rise.
MOST of the offers we got were from investors, but we accepted the offer from a family who is buying the house to live in it. If things continue to go right, it will close within a couple of weeks. <crosses fingers>

Moving out of Cali?

 

[7window]

there is no low inventory but google shadow inventory there is a lot.

 

[soulcougher73]

If by "low inventory" you mean banks holding onto homes to keep prices artificially high..then sure.

 

[BoomerD]

Moving out of Cali?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3VCPn-49ELg

 

[OILFIELDTRASH]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3VCPn-49ELg

Nice song choice. What state and why? Im nosey.

 

[BoomerD]

Fully retired. I was only in California for the work. Now that I'm no longer working in the trades, I don't need to be there.
It was long past time to GTFO.
I went to California for a 6-8 week construction job...and stayed over 25 years.

 

[Chris A]

Fully retired..

Congratulations!!!! Hope you found a good place to kick back and enjoy.

 

[OILFIELDTRASH]

I think Boomer moved to Tex-ass and won't admit it.

 

[OverVolt]

If by "low inventory" you mean banks holding onto homes to keep prices artificially high..then sure.

Yea this. There is still a ton of inventory out of the market. Squatters and foreclosed, etc.

 

[mikegg]

I posted the same thing a month ago: http://forums.anandtech.com/showthread.php?t=2286115&highlight=

I got ridiculed for it.

Look, there's no way housing inventory can drop by that much year over year in a free market. When interest rates go up, when banks release more foreclosures, when banks stop allowing squatters to live for free, when the government stops pumping $40 billion into the real estate market every month, prices will plummet. When that might be, I don't know. I do know that this is unsustainable.

The media calls this "housing recovery". Recovery to what? 2007 level prices?

 

[OverVolt]

Recovery to the edge of the 2007 price cliff so we can fall off of it again of course :awe:

If at first you don't succeed, try, and try again.

 

[BoomerD]

I think Boomer moved to Tex-ass and won't admit it.

Fuck that...Tex-Ass has some nice parts, but the state has one big problem...it's full of Texans. (and Mexicans, but that's a different thread)

 

[FreshCrabLegs]

low rates + low inventory + investors/flippers = ?

http://www.ocregister.com/articles/offers-381617-buyers-homes.html

How about?

Chinese + Pistachios + (possible) higher yielding investment opportunity = ?

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-farmland-20121226,0,871517,full.story

 

[OverVolt]

Part of it is foreign investors riding the coat tails of QE3. The real question is who wouldn't be in on the real estate bubble? :awe:

Seriously though, if you were some rich guy in China and they announce QE3 to prop up house prices, why not?

It is a pump and dump though. They want their 10-20% profit and they will have to cash out before QE3 ends. So long as people understand the nature of the beast. Calling it a recovery is hilarious.

 

[dr150]

We're selling our house in NorCal. According to our realtor, even though there have been a shit-ton of houses foreclosed, the banks are holding on to them rather than dumping them on the market. If they didn't hold them, they'd push the market even lower. That creates an artificial shortage...causing prices to rise.
MOST of the offers we got were from investors, but we accepted the offer from a family who is buying the house to live in it. If things continue to go right, it will close within a couple of weeks. <crosses fingers>

Inventory is indeed being held low by the banks in order to get more money on current releases. Every realtor I've spoken with is extremely frustrated by the current situation as they are fighting with every other realtor for the commission.

Prices are getting ridiculous again in N. CA. People are over bidding and in the process setting a new standard for the neighborhood where the next house for sale in the block will be set at the stupid price the last one sold for by that desperate dumbshit engineering couple who will do anything NOT to lose their tenth bid this time around.

 

[Corporate Thug]

If by "low inventory" you mean banks holding onto homes to keep prices artificially high..then sure.

But that does make perfect sense. Why saturate the market the decrease to value of your own product?

 

[drebo]

But that does make perfect sense. Why saturate the market the decrease to value of your own product?

Because you fuck the entire country in the long run.

 

[OverVolt]

But that does make perfect sense. Why saturate the market the decrease to value of your own product?

You act like the houses aren't going to decay with no one living in them. This is something the econ guys don't understand: the physical waste of resources.

Wealth isn't paper money, its the actual things we buy with it. America becomes less wealthy the more we play paper money games having houses sitting around decaying, or giving house builders the wrong signal to build houses when we already have plenty. The price needs to drop and they are giant crybabies about it.

And we ultimately will pay for the misallocation of physical resources in the long run, with a shittier economy. Can't afford good furniture like we used to make it? We were too busy using the wood to build a house no one needs, because the economy is now retarded.

 

[Pr0d1gy]

Because you fuck the entire country in the long run.

It's sad that you have to explain that to people. I guess economics>America to the truly lost.

 

[Svnla]

How about?

Chinese + Pistachios + (possible) higher yielding investment opportunity = ?

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-farmland-20121226,0,871517,full.story

Saw a story on CBS Evening News last night. A Chinese student got a condo nears his college for over $1 million USD from his parents. The parents said the rent for compatible housing would be a waste.

The profiles of rich home buyers = http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505145_162-57560530/a-profile-of-todays-wealthiest-homebuyers/

 

[BoberFett]

You act like the houses aren't going to decay with no one living in them. This is something the econ guys don't understand: the physical waste of resources.

Wealth isn't paper money, its the actual things we buy with it. America becomes less wealthy the more we play paper money games having houses sitting around decaying, or giving house builders the wrong signal to build houses when we already have plenty. The price needs to drop and they are giant crybabies about it.

And we ultimately will pay for the misallocation of physical resources in the long run, with a shittier economy. Can't afford good furniture like we used to make it? We were too busy using the wood to build a house no one needs, because the economy is now retarded.

It's refreshing to see other people understand simple truths. Too many people believe money is wealth.

 

[Mermaidman]

When interest rates go up, when banks release more foreclosures, when banks stop allowing squatters to live for free, when the government stops pumping $40 billion into the real estate market every month, prices will plummet. When that might be, I don't know. I do know that this is unsustainable.

You're assuming that the above will be done in an uncontrollable manner. I'm sure the banks are smart enough not to do that.

 

[Corporate Thug]

You act like the houses aren't going to decay with no one living in them. This is something the econ guys don't understand: the physical waste of resources.

Wealth isn't paper money, its the actual things we buy with it. America becomes less wealthy the more we play paper money games having houses sitting around decaying, or giving house builders the wrong signal to build houses when we already have plenty. The price needs to drop and they are giant crybabies about it.

And we ultimately will pay for the misallocation of physical resources in the long run, with a shittier economy. Can't afford good furniture like we used to make it? We were too busy using the wood to build a house no one needs, because the economy is now retarded.

Of course it's going to decay. However, I'm pretty sure someone had to take a look at the sell price of the house minus decay versus flooding the market w/ inventory and made a quantitative decision that the lower price of the house w/ decay is still higher than what would happen on the whole if they flooded the market w/ inventory.

The prices have to drop, and they have. But that doesn't mean that the banks can't control the drop.