• We’re currently investigating an issue related to the forum theme and styling that is impacting page layout and visual formatting. The problem has been identified, and we are actively working on a resolution. There is no impact to user data or functionality, this is strictly a front-end display issue. We’ll post an update once the fix has been deployed. Thanks for your patience while we get this sorted.

Another financial thread: Stock market participation ties record low

E

Exterous

Super Moderator
With the biggest drop (22%) being among the middle class

http://www.gallup.com/poll/190883/half-americans-own-stocks-matching-record-low.aspx

This reverses a brief trend of upwards participation in 2014 and 2015 but this drop occurred during the 3rd longest bull market in US history.

Notice the spike before the crash and the sudden drop in participation after. Some likely from economic issues but I'm betting impatience and a misunderstanding of risk play a big part
 
Hmmm... There are bumps up in participation around 2000, 2007, and 2015. Wonder if it's telling us something about 2016 and 2017.
 
Most people are idiots. They see the stock market drop 5% in a month on CNN and they cash everything out and swear theyll never get back in. Then 3 years later after its gone up 30%, they tread back in and then get hammered.
 
Hah, I'm just starting to get into it. I am researching and reading as much as I can...but uh. I tend to really hate the companies that do well. I feel like against my better judgement bet the ones that are the most horrible companies and you'll profit, how else do most of these companies stay around for 100 years? 😛
 
People don't have any money to gamble with anymore. US stocks are so overpriced it's not like they will miss anything when everything comes crashing down.
 
ImpulsE69 said:
Hah, I'm just starting to get into it. I am researching and reading as much as I can...but uh. I tend to really hate the companies that do well. I feel like against my better judgement bet the ones that are the most horrible companies and you'll profit, how else do most of these companies stay around for 100 years? 😛
Click to expand...

You could pick an index fund instead which owns all the companies as a weighted average of the entire stock market and does all the work for you for a really low fee. Then you don't have to pick the companies or even really pay that much attention to what companies its buying or selling

jpiniero said:
People don't have any money to gamble with anymore. US stocks are so overpriced it's not like they will miss anything when everything comes crashing down.
Click to expand...

Gambling? I'm not sure investing in something with a history of never having a negative 20 or 30 year return counts as gambling.

http://allfinancialmatters.com/2012/08/29/sp-rolling-total-returns-1-5-10-20-25-and-30-years/

I'm curious to know what you would consider a better investment vehicle than stocks

As for not having money Americans have made a significant dent in their outstanding debt:
https://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/credit-card-data/average-credit-card-debt-household/
and the deposit savings rate is up from 2008:
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PSAVERT

so saying "People don't have any money to gamble with anymore." doesn't appear correct as the money being used to save\pay down debt is coming from somewhere. They just aren't choosing to put it in the stock market

Edit: Or if they really cared they could take some of that $3200 they spend a year on alcohol, tobacco and eating out and put it towards retirement. $1600 on apparel and apparel related services seems pretty high to me as well
http://www.bls.gov/cex/csxann13.pdf
 
Last edited:
Imp said:
Hmmm... There are bumps up in participation around 2000, 2007, and 2015. Wonder if it's telling us something about 2016 and 2017.
Click to expand...
It's a well know phenomenon that small investors are the last to enter a bull market and the first to leave. So no, it's not a coincidence although you probably already realized that. 🙂

That's why the best investments are the ones that you literally forget you have. Then you don't fuck with them based on emotion or market conditions.

I did that in 2008. I rode my portfolio down into the depths like Slim Pickens on the bomb in Dr Strange Love. Yee-haw motherfuckers. If this blows up I'd rather be vaporized than die a long slow financial death. Also I knew that the fed would open up the financial flood gates and bury the world in dollars, which was exactly what they did.
 
Charmonium said:
I did that in 2008. I rode my portfolio down into the depths like Slim Pickens on the bomb in Dr Strange Love. Yee-haw motherfuckers. If this blows up I'd rather be vaporized than die a long slow financial death. Also I knew that the fed would open up the financial flood gates and bury the world in dollars, which was exactly what they did.
Click to expand...

Don't you worry, if it happens again, Fed will probably do the same thing. Having the world's best military also helps if economic problems arise...
 
Buy index funds (mutual or ETF), hold them forever, get well-off slowly.

If you have enough of an emergency fund in cash that you never need to sell, you can either ignore downturns or look at them as a buying opportunity while the fund is "on sale."

I did quite well in the last downturn, with >20% gains in one year on the new purchases. My existing shares were just fine and back to being profitable in a few years.

The people who cashed out and stayed away from buying until after the recovery lost their 20% or more forever. "Sell low, buy high" is not a good strategy.
 
jpiniero said:
Nothing is a good investment at the moment. Maybe Real Estate in small sections in a few cities.
Click to expand...

This year has been pretty good so far for my individual stocks bought this year as they are up almost 7% on the year with a good amount of of those gains realized.

There has also been a 5+ year trend of people saying to 'get out of the market' or 'nothing is a good investment at the moment'. Good thing I didn't listen to any of them

2011 - Sell your stocks!
http://www.ibtimes.com/stock-market-crash-2011-get-out-around-july-283571
2012: Warning of a 90% correction!
http://www.newsmax.com/Finance/MKTNews/billionaires-dump-economist-stocks/2012/08/29/id/450265/
2013 - Peak market:
http://www.businessinsider.com/signs-are-building-up-that-this-is-the-market-peak-2013-8
2013-2014 - Inevitable crash!
http://www.triwealth.com/the-inevitable-stock-market-crash-of-2013/
2014-2015: DOW to repeat 07-08 crash!
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-will-repeat-2007-2008-peak-crash-cycle-2012-09-24
 
Exterous said:
This year has been pretty good so far for my individual stocks bought this year as they are up almost 7% on the year with a good amount of of those gains realized.

There has also been a 5+ year trend of people saying to 'get out of the market' or 'nothing is a good investment at the moment'. Good thing I didn't listen to any of them

2011 - Sell your stocks!
http://www.ibtimes.com/stock-market-crash-2011-get-out-around-july-283571
2012: Warning of a 90% correction!
http://www.newsmax.com/Finance/MKTNews/billionaires-dump-economist-stocks/2012/08/29/id/450265/
2013 - Peak market:
http://www.businessinsider.com/signs-are-building-up-that-this-is-the-market-peak-2013-8
2013-2014 - Inevitable crash!
http://www.triwealth.com/the-inevitable-stock-market-crash-of-2013/
2014-2015: DOW to repeat 07-08 crash!
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-will-repeat-2007-2008-peak-crash-cycle-2012-09-24
Click to expand...

Don't worry. Market eventually humbles everyone.
 
Exterous said:
This year has been pretty good so far for my individual stocks bought this year as they are up almost 7% on the year with a good amount of of those gains realized.

There has also been a 5+ year trend of people saying to 'get out of the market' or 'nothing is a good investment at the moment'. Good thing I didn't listen to any of them
Click to expand...

If you had asked me in late 2015 about those people calling a market crash, I'd have laughed at them. There have been a lot of interesting developments since.

Good luck with your investments, sounds like you bought during the February-ish correction -- S&P 500 is up 2.3% year to date.

P.S. There was probably a 5 year trend of people calling out the housing bubble before 2008. Bla bla bla, I'm not an investment professional, don't listen to me.
 
Exterous said:
This year has been pretty good so far for my individual stocks bought this year as they are up almost 7% on the year with a good amount of of those gains realized.

There has also been a 5+ year trend of people saying to 'get out of the market' or 'nothing is a good investment at the moment'. Good thing I didn't listen to any of them
Click to expand...

That's because the Fed is propping it up because Wall Street has gotten too addicted to the low rates. They will have to let the bubble burst eventually. Of course Wall Street will know when the Fed will release the bubble. You won't. The problem is that once this correction happens, the economy would actually have to grow in order to justify to the levels it is now... and that could take decades.
 
Exterous said:
This year has been pretty good so far for my individual stocks bought this year as they are up almost 7% on the year with a good amount of of those gains realized.

There has also been a 5+ year trend of people saying to 'get out of the market' or 'nothing is a good investment at the moment'. Good thing I didn't listen to any of them

2011 - Sell your stocks!
http://www.ibtimes.com/stock-market-crash-2011-get-out-around-july-283571
2012: Warning of a 90% correction!
http://www.newsmax.com/Finance/MKTNews/billionaires-dump-economist-stocks/2012/08/29/id/450265/
2013 - Peak market:
http://www.businessinsider.com/signs-are-building-up-that-this-is-the-market-peak-2013-8
2013-2014 - Inevitable crash!
http://www.triwealth.com/the-inevitable-stock-market-crash-of-2013/
2014-2015: DOW to repeat 07-08 crash!
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-will-repeat-2007-2008-peak-crash-cycle-2012-09-24
Click to expand...
haha
 
jpiniero said:
That's because the Fed is propping it up because Wall Street has gotten too addicted to the low rates. They will have to let the bubble burst eventually. Of course Wall Street will know when the Fed will release the bubble. You won't. The problem is that once this correction happens, the economy would actually have to grow in order to justify to the levels it is now... and that could take decades.
Click to expand...

Seriously... look at the market since they stopped adding to QE in late 2014. QE hasn't ended, apparently, they're still buying assets when stuff they have matures. Meanwhile, companies are allegedly using low rates to issue bonds to buy back stocks.

Then look at the time between recessions in the U.S. of A. It's around an average of 5 years since ~1945. Since 1980, it's ranged between 5-10 years -- if you leave out 1981's. Last one ended in mid-2009, so it's been just under 7 years since the last one.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States
 
This is good news for longs. I was worried we were near a top but now i know we arent until all those people get back in. Then it will be time to sell.
 
Maybe people are getting wise to the fact that they're trading against computers running algorithms that cost millions to develop and are connected to the exchanges with sub-millisecond microwave links?
 
Markbnj said:
Maybe people are getting wise to the fact that they're trading against computers running algorithms that cost millions to develop and are connected to the exchanges with sub-millisecond microwave links?
Click to expand...

Yes, day trading is a sucker's bet, and trading any individual stocks is too much gambling for my taste.

When you buy and hold something like an S&P 500 index fund you're just betting that US corporations will do well as a group over the long haul. And (to repeat myself from past threads) if the US does collapse you'll need to have guns, drugs, food and power armor not gold.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

TRENDING THREADS

Back
Top