Android will get its BEHIND handed to itself by iOS if Google doesn't get it together

[Suspicious-Teach8788]

How can people say that people buy Android because its open? People buy it because its the only thing available. Most consumers don't know what the hell "open" means, its only important to geeks.

I would reserve judgement until a Verizon iPhone is released.

This is why Android has such high popularity. It's mostly dictated by the fact that nothing else is available. If you want a cool touchscreen phone but don't want an iPhone, your only choice is Android. WP7 is relatively new, and so we'll have to see how it fares, but had the iPhone been available on all 4 carriers, I think we'd be seeing a huge difference in terms of marketshare.

I just came back from Taiwan, and I think it's interesting to see how many iPhones are out there compared to HTC devices.

Uh huh. I can do this too... I work for a certain company which depends on subscriber revenue that comes from... home grown applications which have no bearing on mobile devices. Here's a hint though, odds are that within the next two years we will be developing our apps for these platforms. Which platform will get the nod? My guess is... BOTH.

Android is in good shape, and being adopted far faster than iOS. Why? Because Google doesn't want to iron fist it, and let manufacturers and more importantly the community drive the innovation of the OS. There's a real benefit to doing it this way, rather than handcuffing end-users into a static and immutable platform that only gets minor updates year on year simply to drive revenue. iOS is the one that needs to be worried.

LOL @minor updates. If anything 2.1, 2.2, 2.3 have been minor updates. iOS 4 alone brings more important and complete features than any Android update so far. I mean seriously, we still can't copy and paste in Twitter in Android. How ridiculous is that? It may have been funny to laugh at Apple fanboys for rejoicing over copy and paste, but it's one of the best implementations I have yet to see.

And for 2.3 to finally get a multitouch keyboard? LoL. I can't believe that Motorola had to tout its "multitouch" keyboard on the Droid X/2.

 

[Gamingphreek]

Uh huh. I can do this too... I work for a certain company which depends on subscriber revenue that comes from... home grown applications which have no bearing on mobile devices. Here's a hint though, odds are that within the next two years we will be developing our apps for these platforms. Which platform will get the nod? My guess is... BOTH.

Android is in good shape, and being adopted far faster than iOS. Why? Because Google doesn't want to iron fist it, and let manufacturers and more importantly the community drive the innovation of the OS. There's a real benefit to doing it this way, rather than handcuffing end-users into a static and immutable platform that only gets minor updates year on year simply to drive revenue. iOS is the one that needs to be worried.

Well said SunnyD. I read the first line and looked at the user account and immediately did a Double Facepalm.

 

[_Aurel_]

Does RIM not exist anymore? You just don't see them in your little microcosm since businesses usually get their phones direct.

Blackberry's are bought out of necessity, not necessarily out of want. It's usually because people need access to push email, or enterprise. A few more want it because of BBM, but that's becoming less common. It's Blackberry's own fault; maybe they shouldn't have taken the market for granted on this carrier by just refreshing their phone line, or at least they could have gotten BB6 out in a reasonable timeframe. The selling tool of 'BB6 upgradable' for the Bold and the Curve3 were used at the beginning of their product launches.

I don't think there's anything wrong with Google emphasizing their apps and the 'Google Experience' with their phones. They already do it with the Nexus One and S. The problem is that these two phones are available on two carriers (only one for the S). Instead of trying to focus on making an 'IT' phone, they should work towards building a set of standards for the 'With Google' branding on the back of their phone that manufactures must follow if they want it. They don't have to be super strict about it. Have the basic UI elements remain the same, but allow the manufacture to add their own special widgets. In some cases, if the hardware like the camera is deemed special enough allow them to add a custom UI to take advantage of it and in other cases like the Atrix allow them to expand a different UI in places where Android hasn't reached yet.

If a manufacture doesn't want to do this, that's fine. Android is a free and open OS. They can take a cue from the Nook and build out their own app store and experience and be very successful at it. The point is it's in Google's interest to see Android continue to grow and having it fragmented by manufactures with different schemes and locked-in features only serves to hinder that in the long run.

Android 2.3 is Gingerbread and it absolutely removes the ability to use Sense UI and Motoblur. Google did this in an effort to stop manufacturers from lingering around on older platforms and complicating the effort to get the OS pushed out to its phones.

I really hope that's the case. But with a majority of the phones announced at CES still having baked-in UI features on a Android 2.2 OS (Sony's Ark exluded) it may be a while before customers actually see that.

 

[NikolaeVarius]

Android 2.3 is Gingerbread and it absolutely removes the ability to use Sense UI and Motoblur. Google did this in an effort to stop manufacturers from lingering around on older platforms and complicating the effort to get the OS pushed out to its phones.

Now you can still write Custom UI Themes and apply them.

-Kevin

I haven't seen a single piece of evidence ever that has ever indicated that Gingerbread took out the ability for manufacturers to put on skins. Especially since the Sony ARC runs on 2.3 and it uses its own custom skin (Timescape?)

If you can write themes to put them on a phone, why wouldn't manufacturers also have the same ability?

http://www.engadget.com/2011/01/07/exclusive-interview-googles-matias-duarte-talks-honeycomb-tab/

Skip to 20:10 for the part about UI.

 

[Bateluer]

From what I've seen of Gingerbread, its UI isn't that much different than Froyo's. Stock Android is easily the best UI out there for Android based phones, but Gingerbread is hardly going to stop Moto/HTC/Samsung/LG/etc from loading their phones with their customized, bloated junk. They should give the end users the option whether or not to choose to install those UI overlays, whether through a voluntary OTA update or by letting the users grab the update from their website and copy to their SD cards.

Was just reading some things about the Droid Bionic, its prototypes at CES lacked an SD card. Not a good sign for future Android devices.

 

[Anubis]

Was just reading some things about the Droid Bionic, its prototypes at CES lacked an SD card. Not a good sign for future Android devices.

i can see them not shipping one but having a slot, lacking a SD card slot for storage expandability is massive failure

 

[Bateluer]

i can see them not shipping one but having a slot, lacking a SD card slot for storage expandability is massive failure

I'm okay with them not shipping an SD card, but I want the slot. The Nexus S shipped without a slot or card.

 

[zerocool84]

How can people say that people buy Android because its open? People buy it because its the only thing available. Most consumers don't know what the hell "open" means, its only important to geeks.

I would reserve judgement until a Verizon iPhone is released.

You could say something similar to the iPhone that people only buy it cus it has the Apple name. There's many choices on every carrier and Android has shown just like iPhone, to bring many people just to that carrier for a phone.

 

[Anubis]

I'm okay with them not shipping an SD card, but I want the slot. The Nexus S shipped without a slot or card.

the bionic will have one
http://www.droid-life.com/2011/01/10/chart-verizon-4g-lte-android-phone-lineup/

 

[MrX8503]

You could say something similar to the iPhone that people only buy it cus it has the Apple name. There's many choices on every carrier and Android has shown just like iPhone, to bring many people just to that carrier for a phone.

I don't see the correlation. For the most part Android hasn't really had any competition, which IMO is the real reason to its success, not its openness.

 

[cheezy321]

You could say something similar to the iPhone that people only buy it cus it has the Apple name. There's many choices on every carrier and Android has shown just like iPhone, to bring many people just to that carrier for a phone.

Do you truly believe a large percentage of the population buys android because it is 'open'?

Come on man...

 

[ew915]

I just came back from Taiwan, and I think it's interesting to see how many iPhones are out there compared to HTC devices.

Are you sure those aren't clone iphones? i've seen my share of iphones when i was back in china last summer however i have my doubts everyone can afford a $600 USD iphone 3GS.

 

[cheezy321]

iOS isn't really a threat to Android. People buy what they are given in the tech world and right now Motorola, HTC, Samsung, SE etc are giving us Android by the truck load. Not everyone wants an Apple, nor can everyone afford the premium, just like not everyone wants the same brand of car or TV, even though usually 1-2 brands are clearly better.

WTF are you talking about? The iPhone is at the *SAME EXACT* price points as most android phones...

 

[zerocool84]

I don't see the correlation. For the most part Android hasn't really had any competition, which IMO is the real reason to its success, not its openness.

Do you truly believe a large percentage of the population buys android because it is 'open'?

Come on man...

People buy it cus they like it. Some of you guys really crack me up. Android didn't make this huge leap just because there were no other options, cus there are. People made Android so huge cus they like it and obviously contunie to like it. Average person could care less about anything being open or closed as we all know, they get it cus they like it and obviously more people like Android now.

 

[Bateluer]

WTF are you talking about? The iPhone is at the *SAME EXACT* price points as most android phones...

Only the high end phones. You can find Android phones from Free, to 600 dollars off contract. With varying data plan pricing on most carriers too. Granted, you're going to get a very different experience running a T-Mobile Comet versus a Droid X. But that Comet is free with your contract, that appeals to a lot of people. Entry level smart phone.

 

[ChAoTiCpInOy]

Only the high end phones. You can find Android phones from Free, to 600 dollars off contract. With varying data plan pricing on most carriers too. Granted, you're going to get a very different experience running a T-Mobile Comet versus a Droid X. But that Comet is free with your contract, that appeals to a lot of people. Entry level smart phone.

You could buy a iPhone 3GS for $50 with contract. What's your point?

 

[MrX8503]

People buy it cus they like it. Some of you guys really crack me up. Android didn't make this huge leap just because there were no other options, cus there are. People made Android so huge cus they like it and obviously contunie to like it. Average person could care less about anything being open or closed as we all know, they get it cus they like it and obviously more people like Android now.

Right, people buy it because they like it. I guarantee you they didn't buy it because Android was open though, consumers don't even know what that means.

 

[Pliablemoose]

I think Android will do quite well doing exactly what they're doing.

The vast majority of buyers just want good apps and a good UI, Android provides that.

As far as marketshare, etc, it's very fluid, and interesting as hell to watch....

I think Verizon having the iPhone will slow US growth a bit, but we've barely seen overseas sales take off yet, just flipping wait till the cheap Android handsets roll out on carriers around the world.... The companies in immediate trouble are Nokia and RIM, this next year, we're gonna see them drop some serious marketshare internationally....

 

[zerocool84]

Right, people buy it because they like it. I guarantee you they didn't buy it because Android was open though, consumers don't even know what that means.

Oh that's what you were specifically talking about, my mistake then. Yea the average person doesn't care about something being open or closed. Only nerds care about that stuff.

 

[KentState]

Android doesn't have to worry about the iPhone on Verizon for awhile. Yes, people wanting to dump ATT will jump over, but those are iPhone for iPhone swaps. People that didn't want to move to Android already. The current Android owners are locked into 2 year contracts until 4th quarter 2011. That give a couple more releases of Android to evolve plus LTE will become more prevalent. Even if the iPhone 5G LTE (whatever it's called) is launch this summer, Android owners are still locked into their current phones for another 4-5 months at least.

My prediction is that Verizon picks up 10-15 million people because of the iPhone taking market share from ATT, TMobile and Sprint. Android LTE phones launch and pick up some remaining hold outs. Beyond that, there is a lot of time for Android 4.0 and iOS 5 to change the market again.

 

[ChAoTiCpInOy]

Android doesn't have to worry about the iPhone on Verizon for awhile. Yes, people wanting to dump ATT will jump over, but those are iPhone for iPhone swaps. People that didn't want to move to Android already. The current Android owners are locked into 2 year contracts until 4th quarter 2011. That give a couple more releases of Android to evolve plus LTE will become more prevalent. Even if the iPhone 5G LTE (whatever it's called) is launch this summer, Android owners are still locked into their current phones for another 4-5 months at least.

My prediction is that Verizon picks up 10-15 million people because of the iPhone taking market share from ATT, TMobile and Sprint. Android LTE phones launch and pick up some remaining hold outs. Beyond that, there is a lot of time for Android 4.0 and iOS 5 to change the market again.

I think a lot of people on Verizon who didn't switch to AT&T will now get their iPhone fix. And it will be a majority of Verizon users who will be getting the iPhone on Verizon and not as much attrition from other carriers.

 

[KentState]

I think a lot of people on Verizon who didn't switch to AT&T will now get their iPhone fix. And it will be a majority of Verizon users who will be getting the iPhone on Verizon and not as much attrition from other carriers.

Give it a year, Verizon will take market share from the three major carriers. All the iPhone 2G/3G holdouts are up to make a move.

 

[tdawg]

There are problem inherent with the free and open approach Google has taken with Android and these are problems that Apple does not have, or at least not nearly as much. I keep repeating myself on this but for me the biggest problem Android has is the legacy of freeness.

From it's very inception Google did not understand that others owned the IP to things they thought they could reproduce for free. Remember when they started scanning in lots of books and making them available for free even though the authors and publishers never gave them permission to do so? This is a mindset that comes from college kids that downloaded music without regard for the IP and have developed a mindset that makes them default to the idea that they can do whatever they wish.

The ongoing consequence of this is that too many Android users believe that everything is or should be free and that puts app developers in a bind. Either the devs offer the app for free or they get no takers! Sooner or later the devs will walk away from there apps because they have to earn a living. Devoting 100's and 1000's of hours to apps that pay them nothing is not a long term strategy for success or even survival.

Google and the Android user base is going to have to come to terms with this fact or Android will wither away, not because Google can't write good code but because the app developers will have moved on to platforms they can earn a living at. In the end Android will be left with the crap that kids just starting out make and trial junk from other devs.


Brian

Developers get revenue for offering ad-supported software through the market. Free for users, revenue for Google and developers for every ad view, so, just like the App Store, developers can charge for their wares or earn money through advertising within their app.

 

[shabby]

All the iPhone 2G/3G holdouts are up to make a move.

I would expect they're waiting for the iphone5 rather than a cdma iphone4.

 

[shortylickens]

I would expect they're waiting for the iphone5 rather than a cdma iphone4.

Nah if I were holding out for one it would have been the iPhone 4. I think everyone who's been attracted to them in the slightest has already got one. At this point Apple needs to consider whole new markets instead of oversaturating its current market.