REALLY like the pre-release writeups of the SPRINT HERO.
Is the ANDROID OS going to stand the test of time or just be a fad?
Is the ANDROID OS going to stand the test of time or just be a fad?
ANDROID... Fad or here to stay?
- Thread starter KaGee
- Start date
I personally think that it's my "most likely to dominate over the long term" mobile OS. I do not think that it's a fad at all.
The main OSs now are Symbian, RIM, iPhone, WebOS, indows Mobile and Android. Of these, only WM and Android are open to all handset manufacturers. I personally believe that the smartphone market will follow the PC market and that the "most open" OS will win. Whether or not you think that MS-DOS was the "most open" OS at the time is debatable, but it was undoubtably fairly open - it wasn't tied to specific hardware from a specific manufacturer, it's licensing rules were for the time fairly lenient, and pretty much anyone who wanted to build a PC could license it. That was pretty open for the early 80's when most OS's were directly tied to specific hardware (like Amiga's OS was tied to Amiga, etc.)
I believe this model will be followed by the smartphone industry - that an OS that isn't tied to very specific hardware from one or two manufacturers, that leverages the internet "cloud" very well (which makes up for the small memory and low-power CPU), that's inexpensive and easy for manufacturers to modify to differentiate themselves, and that has a variety of well designed apps, a decent development environment and emulator, an open app store with few restrictions and lenient licensing. I believe this is the OS that will "win". And I think that Android is the OS that is the closest fit to this.
Beyond this, I tend to agree with Erwos, except with regards to Blackberry. I'm more upbeat about RIM because it's considered a more secure OS than Android, WM or Apple's OS is within the business community. And that kind of perception takes a very long time to break through. At my company you are not allowed to synchronize Android or Apple cell phones with company computers, are not allowed to use the corporate wireless network, and can't tie into the Exchange server. And the only smart phones that you can use as company phones are Blackberries. I don't see this changing in the near future, and even beyond that - say for another decade - I believe there will still be an aura of "business-class" and "secure" to RIM's products that Apple - who are deemed too much of a toy - and Android - who will likely continue to be deemed too insecure - will have a hard time getting into.
The main OSs now are Symbian, RIM, iPhone, WebOS, indows Mobile and Android. Of these, only WM and Android are open to all handset manufacturers. I personally believe that the smartphone market will follow the PC market and that the "most open" OS will win. Whether or not you think that MS-DOS was the "most open" OS at the time is debatable, but it was undoubtably fairly open - it wasn't tied to specific hardware from a specific manufacturer, it's licensing rules were for the time fairly lenient, and pretty much anyone who wanted to build a PC could license it. That was pretty open for the early 80's when most OS's were directly tied to specific hardware (like Amiga's OS was tied to Amiga, etc.)
I believe this model will be followed by the smartphone industry - that an OS that isn't tied to very specific hardware from one or two manufacturers, that leverages the internet "cloud" very well (which makes up for the small memory and low-power CPU), that's inexpensive and easy for manufacturers to modify to differentiate themselves, and that has a variety of well designed apps, a decent development environment and emulator, an open app store with few restrictions and lenient licensing. I believe this is the OS that will "win". And I think that Android is the OS that is the closest fit to this.
Beyond this, I tend to agree with Erwos, except with regards to Blackberry. I'm more upbeat about RIM because it's considered a more secure OS than Android, WM or Apple's OS is within the business community. And that kind of perception takes a very long time to break through. At my company you are not allowed to synchronize Android or Apple cell phones with company computers, are not allowed to use the corporate wireless network, and can't tie into the Exchange server. And the only smart phones that you can use as company phones are Blackberries. I don't see this changing in the near future, and even beyond that - say for another decade - I believe there will still be an aura of "business-class" and "secure" to RIM's products that Apple - who are deemed too much of a toy - and Android - who will likely continue to be deemed too insecure - will have a hard time getting into.
Pliablemoose
Lifer
- Oct 11, 1999
- 25,195
- 0
- 56
All 4 of the big players in the US teleco now sell Android phones, it's an "open OS" and all manufacturers can use it.
The app store for Android isn't nearly as mature as Apple's, but give it time...
IMHO, it's the OS that will eventually commoditize the iPhone, but it will take some time.
The app store for Android isn't nearly as mature as Apple's, but give it time...
IMHO, it's the OS that will eventually commoditize the iPhone, but it will take some time.
Thoughts:
1. Symbian is going to disappear eventually - it seems like Nokia's lost interest in it in favor of Maemo, and no one else seems to care. Maemo will probably get rolled into Android eventually.
2. I imagine that Palm may switch WebOS to run off Android as a base OS if Android ever gets popular and Palm doesn't acquire much more marketshare.
3. Windows Mobile won't be going away, but that's more because Microsoft can afford to lose money on it for a long time. I suspect Windows Mobile 7 with Zune integration will get them back into the mass market, though - the ZuneOS has proven that they've still got some design chops.
4. It is my own personal feeling that RIM will probably move to Android eventually, but I think this may come down to corporate politics rather than solid business reasoning. There seems to be no reason whatsoever for them to maintain their own OS.
5. Mobile OS X (aka, the iPhone OS) is probably not going anywhere at this point. It would be an interesting move for Apple to try licensing it out if the iPhone ever saw declining market share, but that would seem like a departure from their usual behavior.
To summarize, I see three OS's surviving in the long-term:
1. Windows Mobile (Microsoft won't let it die)
2. Android (best choice for a freely license-able smartphone OS)
3. Mobile OS X (Apple won't let it die)
1. Symbian is going to disappear eventually - it seems like Nokia's lost interest in it in favor of Maemo, and no one else seems to care. Maemo will probably get rolled into Android eventually.
2. I imagine that Palm may switch WebOS to run off Android as a base OS if Android ever gets popular and Palm doesn't acquire much more marketshare.
3. Windows Mobile won't be going away, but that's more because Microsoft can afford to lose money on it for a long time. I suspect Windows Mobile 7 with Zune integration will get them back into the mass market, though - the ZuneOS has proven that they've still got some design chops.
4. It is my own personal feeling that RIM will probably move to Android eventually, but I think this may come down to corporate politics rather than solid business reasoning. There seems to be no reason whatsoever for them to maintain their own OS.
5. Mobile OS X (aka, the iPhone OS) is probably not going anywhere at this point. It would be an interesting move for Apple to try licensing it out if the iPhone ever saw declining market share, but that would seem like a departure from their usual behavior.
To summarize, I see three OS's surviving in the long-term:
1. Windows Mobile (Microsoft won't let it die)
2. Android (best choice for a freely license-able smartphone OS)
3. Mobile OS X (Apple won't let it die)
Pliablemoose
Lifer
- Oct 11, 1999
- 25,195
- 0
- 56
Agreed.
In the short term, Apple will sell it's iPhone through as many carriers as it can, and move up in market share, I'm thinking they have 6 months to a year as top dog.
Cheap Chinese branded Android phones are going to rock the market, they'll give them away with a voice & data contract.
RIMM I dunno if they'll go the Moto route & fire all of it's current OS folk, as you said, it's going to be company internals that drive that change. the cost of keeping programmers on staff to maintain their own OS is a waste, Android is starting to look like a good, polished, capable interface. If my G1 had a faster processor, and more system memory, I'd be my perfect phone for now.
What I'd really like is a 5" screen on my phone, a good solid wide coverage data plan and tethering and my needs would be met, no netbook necessary.
shortylickens
No Lifer
- Jul 15, 2003
- 80,287
- 17,081
- 136
I thought I would come in here and make a meaningful contribution but I dont think I can top you guys.
Android has been around a while now and keeps getting more popular. It is a fad like cell phones are a fad. When cell phones die so will Android. It will get updated and improved over time and the face may change completely in a few years, but it will survive. Eventually they will put stripped down versions of it on basic phones and other media devices (according to many websites I've been reading).
Also, there are more and more devices scheduled to use it. http://droiddog.com/android-bl...y/android-device-list/
He doesnt have much info yet, but you can google for more.
Android has been around a while now and keeps getting more popular. It is a fad like cell phones are a fad. When cell phones die so will Android. It will get updated and improved over time and the face may change completely in a few years, but it will survive. Eventually they will put stripped down versions of it on basic phones and other media devices (according to many websites I've been reading).
Also, there are more and more devices scheduled to use it. http://droiddog.com/android-bl...y/android-device-list/
He doesnt have much info yet, but you can google for more.
Symbian's not disappearing yet. Maemo is a totally different thing. The N900 is offering PC functions with some telephony. It's different from smartphones offering PC-capabilities but have roots in a smartphone With Symbian^3, and Symbian^4 coming I don't necessarily count Nokia as dying yet.
RIMM is the one that needs to change big time, although that time will come later.
WinMo could see a significant push but that's due to players like HTC and LG pushing out a lot of new phones. Overseas WinMo already has decent penetration. In the US it's kinda... meh. We'll see.
RIMM is the one that needs to change big time, although that time will come later.
WinMo could see a significant push but that's due to players like HTC and LG pushing out a lot of new phones. Overseas WinMo already has decent penetration. In the US it's kinda... meh. We'll see.
Deeko
Lifer
- Jun 16, 2000
- 30,213
- 12
- 81
Android isn't going away. Its growing in a BIG way. Its already fairly big, with a pretty big developer community/app store, after just a year of the G1. Now we've got several new HTC phones, and very soon Motorola and Samsung - Android is just going to get bigger.
No one said Nokia was dying. But it's telling when they release something like the N900 as a response to the criticism of their previous top-end phone, the N97. You need to remember that Nokia is NOT the same as Symbian anymore.
Like I was saying before, Microsoft has a real chance to turn it around with WM7, especially if they can build on the success of the 360 and the growing success of the Zune. But, even if they blow it, there's so much money being dumped into Windows Embedded that it's unlikely it will ever REALLY die.
DivideBYZero
Lifer
- May 18, 2001
- 24,117
- 2
- 0
This is happening, along with OS 5.0. Then you have the purchase, by RIM, of Torch Mobile Inc., whose Webkit based browser gets 97/100 on the Acid 3 test, which is better than FF3.5(92).
The main reason for RIM to continue is they are unique in the industry in that they own the whole chain from enterprise to device. Server, middleware & device.
Most people base mobile OS decisions upon the browser these days, and IMHO that's a pretty odd place to start, as my device does much more than browsing, and to be fair I think it does that pretty well, even with the OOTB browser.
All that is well and good, but IMHO, Android will replace WinMo on 'generic' handsets. This is akin in a way to the Desktop, Windows vs. Linux, but in this space I see the 'Linux' of mobile OS's doing well. Why? Because there is only one distro, it's heavily focused on doing what it does well and both Device manufacturers and Carriers have given it their seal of approval. That and Google are pretty good at making stuff fly.
Pliablemoose
Lifer
- Oct 11, 1999
- 25,195
- 0
- 56
the iPhone is gaining traction in the corporate world with 19 of the biggest 100 companies using iPhones.
Interesting that the corporate IT folk are allowing iPhones, and in some cases subsidizing them.
Smartphones are an interesting device, they're breaking all the well established rules as the internet becomes an integral part of many people's lives.
There's certainly a market for this. But as you've just implicitly stated, owning the OS doesn't seem to be part of the chain. The BB OS is not really all that secure, it's just easier to remote wipe a BB owned by the company than your personal WinMo phone or iPhone.
Android has a problem that I think a lot of people see, but no one's willing to talk about: as HTC, Moto, Samsung, etc. all introduce their own customizations to Android, it becomes more and more fragmented as a brand. This is something Google (or the Open Handset Foundation, whatever) will need to address, or they'll wind up with a bunch of Android phones that operate in completely different ways.
shortylickens
No Lifer
- Jul 15, 2003
- 80,287
- 17,081
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Whats wrong with that?
Theres a bunch of linux distros that operate in completely different ways and people seem OK with it.
Why not have a solid foundation and then plenty of customization to make customers happy?
Even better would be the abililty of customers to change it themselves and have exactly what they want. I like having good battery life and dont care about multimedia or games, so basic customization like changing CPU speed on the fly would be helpful. My Asus A620 had that, and I used to think it was widely available on hi-power Smartphones but apparently its not.
Even though HTC and such release GUI customizations, there are several basic requirements for the phones. A home button is one, and so is a touchscreen.
Deeko
Lifer
- Jun 16, 2000
- 30,213
- 12
- 81
Customization is important for the handset makers, so they can differentiate themselves. However, TOO much customization can hurt brand identity. If you really like the Samsung Behold II, but don't know that its a Google Android phone, you (the average consumer) will think "I want another Samsung phone", not "I want another Google phone". Hence the deal for the G1, with it being advertised as the T-Mobile G1 with Google, not the HTC G1.
This is a big problem with Windows Mobile. That's why they've rebranded "Windows Phones", and are working with 6.5 to make the phones more identifiable as Microsoft-branded.
zerocool84
Lifer
- Nov 11, 2004
- 36,041
- 472
- 126
Apple would never license out their OS to anyone. The way it works, it needs to be locked down to certain hardware or else there would be bugs and crashes just like other phones. It's just like if Apple released OSX to work on any other computer. The only reason why it "just works" is cus the hardware is locked down and customized perfectly for it.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M...acintosh_clone_program
They would if they felt like it was financially advantageous.
zerocool84
Lifer
- Nov 11, 2004
- 36,041
- 472
- 126
Ehh what was like 15yrs ago and they are a totally different company now and didn't use the "it just works" campain like they do now. If they licensed it out people would be so pissed off at how much it crashed and how buggy it was.
DivideBYZero
Lifer
- May 18, 2001
- 24,117
- 2
- 0
BB security goes way beyond 'easy remote wipe'.
The BB OS is pretty much the most secure mobile OS. Never been cracked. The iPhone OS has been cracked (jailbreak allows access to the lowest hardware level, the baseband proc) and even the 'hardware' encryption on the GS has been cracked. The BB OS has never been cracked. Every BB is capable ofNSA Suite B level cryptography. Even the little Pearl Flip. If you want to go further BB have a bluetooth Smartcard reader that increases security further, and that has been Coverity Certified for Secure and Quality Code, both at Level 2.
I did not state owning the OS wasn't part of the chain, I suggested that it WAS, and a reason for the security and trust in the end to end solution.
Android is here to stay but it's never going to be a strong brand name like iPhone or Blackberry. The platform is already fragmented and it's barely a year old. It's going to be the "guts behind the machine" much like Linux is behind many CE devices and people don't ever realize it.
It seems Verizon is leaning more towards openness with their 2 upcoming android devices. Most notably, the Motorola Sholes. They are putting big development money, as well as Motorola, behind android.
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