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And the Republicans call the election 50-47%, Bush

Pliablemoose

Pliablemoose

Lifer
Link

Betting on Bush
The election is still a week off, but the Bush camp is making strong predictions about the final outcome. Insiders tell us that the Bush-Cheney polling team believes the president will win re-election 50 percent to 47 percent.
Click to expand...
 
Originally posted by: Pliablemoose
Link

Betting on Bush
The election is still a week off, but the Bush camp is making strong predictions about the final outcome. Insiders tell us that the Bush-Cheney polling team believes the president will win re-election 50 percent to 47 percent.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...

If your own polling team thinks you'll win by only 3%, thats pretty darn sad
 
Originally posted by: Pliablemoose
Link

Betting on Bush
The election is still a week off, but the Bush camp is making strong predictions about the final outcome. Insiders tell us that the Bush-Cheney polling team believes the president will win re-election 50 percent to 47 percent.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...

yawn
 
Good news for Kerry! The Cheney/Bush team has been wrong about everything else. They're more than likely wrong about this too.
 
Originally posted by: chess9
Counting bumper stickers is more reliable.

-Robert
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Hell, my wife won't let us put a bumpersticker on our brand new car, because she's afraid that it'll be vandalized.
 
I look at it as my patriotic duty to show a bumper sticker for Kerry. 🙂 Also, it really makes the right wingers nervous to see so many of those little red and blue signs popping up all over. Yep, Democracy may be coming to the U.S.A.

-Robert
 
Originally posted by: tallest1
Originally posted by: Pliablemoose
Link

Betting on Bush
The election is still a week off, but the Bush camp is making strong predictions about the final outcome. Insiders tell us that the Bush-Cheney polling team believes the president will win re-election 50 percent to 47 percent.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...

If your own polling team thinks you'll win by only 3%, thats pretty darn sad
Click to expand...

How much does the Kerry team think he will win by?
 
Originally posted by: lordtyranus
Originally posted by: tallest1
Originally posted by: Pliablemoose
Link

Betting on Bush
The election is still a week off, but the Bush camp is making strong predictions about the final outcome. Insiders tell us that the Bush-Cheney polling team believes the president will win re-election 50 percent to 47 percent.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...

If your own polling team thinks you'll win by only 3%, thats pretty darn sad
Click to expand...

How much does the Kerry team think he will win by?
Click to expand...

Kerry will win with something over 270 electoral votes.

 
There have been 35 national polls released since the first presidential debate, not counting tracking polls. Bush holds an average lead of 1.5 percent in these 35 polls. There is no trend evident. In 19 polls released between October 1 and 15, Bush led by an average of 1.6 points. In 16 polls released since October 15, Bush led by an average of 1.4 points.

Here are the results in the 11 most important battleground states. These are the 11 states identified as the key battlegrounds by the N.Y. Times today.
State (EVs) October polls Mean Bush lead/deficit
FL (27) 14 +0.6
OH (20) 12 -1.7
PA (21) 10 -3.7
MI (17) 7 -4.0
WI (10) 9 -0.2
IA (7) 9 +0.7
NV (5) 5 +5.4
NM (5) 5 -0.6
MN (10) 5 -2.4
CO (9) 9 +5.3
NH (4) 9 -1.7

Based on the average of all October polls, Kerry is currently leading in 7 states with 87 electoral votes. Bush is currently leading in 4 states with 48 electoral votes. In addition to these battleground states, The Times has Kerry favored in states with 190 electoral votes with Bush favored in states with 213 electoral votes. Adding these to the electoral votes of the battleground states in which Kerry and Bush now have the edge and you get the following: Kerry 277, Bush 261.

Obviously, neither candidate has a secure lead in the Electoral College right now--a switch of one or two states such as Ohio, Wisconsin, or Florida could change the picture considerably. But based on this analysis of recent polls in the battleground states, if either candidate has a slight edge, it's John Kerry. And that's without even factoring in the expected late movement of undecided voters to Kerry.
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No one should call this yet, unless they know something others don't.
 
Originally posted by: Pliablemoose
Wow, pretty close, huh?

Some pretty sweet quotes in this thread too😉
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That IS interesting, because this caught people by surprise. And not just on here, polls by many different organizations called it differently.

Hmm, Bush was the only one who predicted that he was going to win by a good margin and even predicted what the margin would look like (off by 1% on both him and Kerry, but the margin was perfect). I expect a few conspiracy theories here... 🙂

Not saying I believe that crap, but it's at least an odd coincidence that Bush and Co were the ONLY ones who called it right.
 
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