And It Begins...Obama Picks Up Three Super Delegates After PA Primary

[b0mbrman]

Oh Pilar Lujan...

 

[mflacy]

Make that +3 SD's on the day (Jenny Greenleaf of OR) which bumps him to +5 for Friday.

 

[RaistlinZ]

Originally posted by: mflacy
Make that +3 SD's on the day (Jenny Greenleaf of OR) which bumps him to +5 for Friday.

Hopefully he can keep picking up 4-5 per day and we can end this thing on June 3.

If Puerto Rico, Montana, and South Dakota go as most poeple think they will Obama could have over 2,000 total delegates by June 3, even if he doesn't pick up any more superdelegates between now and then, which is unlikely.

 

[b0mbrman]

Originally posted by: mflacy
Slow week for SD's. Clinton picked up 1 yesterday and lost 1 today. Obama picked up 2 today; Jim Costa & Dennis Cardoza. Obama also picked up 2 more of those Edwards delegates.

Another interesting tidbit: 7 add-on superdelegates are being named this weekend, all in states that Obama won. 1 from Alaska, 1 from Wyoming, 2 from Georgia, and 3 from Hawaii.

Add-ons have broken 30-6-5 winner-loser-undeclared. Expect on Obama getting 5, Clinton getting 1, and 1 who won't tell.

 

[b0mbrman]

Originally posted by: RaistlinZ

Originally posted by: mflacy
Make that +3 SD's on the day (Jenny Greenleaf of OR) which bumps him to +5 for Friday.

Hopefully he can keep picking up 4-5 per day and we can end this thing on June 3.

If Puerto Rico, Montana, and South Dakota go as most poeple think they will Obama could have over 2,000 total delegates by June 3, even if he doesn't pick up any more superdelegates between now and then, which is unlikely.

He needs less than 2 a day to get there by June 3:
http://spreadsheets.google.com...-0Yw80DbqlgeU3FA&gid=1

...unless FL/MI are added in any part. And then...then it gets ugly:
http://spreadsheets.google.com...-0Yw80DbqlgeU3FA&gid=3

 

[Robor]

I don't see how FL and MI can't be added in one way or another. I think to not seat them would be uglier for the (D)'s in the GE.

 

[b0mbrman]

Originally posted by: Robor
I don't see how FL and MI can't be added in one way or another. I think to not seat them would be uglier for the (D)'s in the GE.

MI doesn't seem to fault Obama much based on polls

As for those add-ons, GA went one each in their two:

Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton each picked up a delegate in Georgia on Saturday as state Democrats selected their delegation to the party's national convention in Denver this summer.

That brings Obama's overall delegates to 1,971 ? only 55 shy of the 2,026 needed to secure the presidential nomination ? to Clinton's 1,780.

The two add-on delegates are state party secretary Stephen Leeds, an Obama supporter, and Verna Cleveland, who was Clinton's Georgia state director.

http://ap.google.com/article/A...f2Zusn1o1fD3QD90S4FC80

 

[mflacy]

A 2nd on the day for Obama; Wyoming's add-on Patrick Goggles.

 

[mflacy]

Obama finished Saturday up +4 and Clinton netted +0 on the day.

Alaska added an Obama superdelegate; Tony Knowles. Additionally, there was a 1 delegate shift from Clinton to Obama when his vote totals shifted over 75% in a section of the state.

 

[mflacy]

Obama picked up all 3 Hawaii add-ons today. Clinton zilch.

 

[RaistlinZ]

Originally posted by: mflacy
Obama picked up all 3 Hawaii add-ons today. Clinton zilch.

How come all of the ones he's picked up over the weekend haven't been updated on CNN tracker? They still have him at 309 total SD's from last week.

 

[mflacy]

Originally posted by: RaistlinZ

Originally posted by: mflacy
Obama picked up all 3 Hawaii add-ons today. Clinton zilch.

How come all of the ones he's picked up over the weekend haven't been updated on CNN tracker? They still have him at 309 total SD's from last week.

No idea. Perhaps the guy that updates the count is off on a lake riding his jet-ski on Memorial Day weekend. There are plenty of news sources that have covered it if you need confirmation.

 

[mflacy]

Marc Ambinder Rumor: Obama Banking Superdelegates for release on June 4th & 5th:

In June of 1984, the day after California handed Gary Hart a last-minute victory and New Jersey, thanks to Hart's having insulted the state, voted for Walter Mondale by 15 points, Tad Devine, Mondale's chief superdelegate counter, was ready. Worried that Mondale would not meet his pledge to end the primary season with a majority of delegates, Devine and his team made a "frantic" series of phone calls to undeclared party leaders; by noon, a few dozen superdelegates endorsed Mondale en masse, taking the wind of out Hart's campaign forever.

Neither the Clinton nor the Obama campaign is clear what the DNC's rules and bylaws committee will do on May 31; depending upon how or whether they re-allocate delegates, Obama could wind up within to 20 to 30 votes of the nomination -- a situation rectifiable by a piddling performance in Puerto RIco, South Dakota and Montana -- or more than 100 delegates short, requiring solid performances in those states plus a few dozen superdelegate endorsements to put him over the top.

To prepare for that eventuality, the Obama campaign has, for the first time, really, begun to bank delegates. Sources close to the campaign estimate that as many as three dozen Democratic superdelegates have privately pledged to announce their support for Obama on June 4 or 5. The campaign is determined that Obama not end the first week in June without securing the support of delegates numbering 2026 -- or 2210, as the case may be.

 

[Robor]

Thanks for these updates, mflacy!

 

[mflacy]

No prob. Bomberman is updating as well.

Despite the previous rumor, Obama did pick up a SD today; Nancy Drummond of Wyoming.

 

[Robor]

Originally posted by: mflacy
No prob. Bomberman is updating as well.

Despite the previous rumor, Obama did pick up a SD today; Nancy Drummond of Wyoming.

Thanks to ya too, b0mbrman!

 

[mflacy]

Obama up 2 more undeclared supers this morning:

Oregon Democratic Chair Meredith Wood Smith
Colorado Democratic Chair Pat Waak

 

[b0mbrman]

Originally posted by: Robor

Originally posted by: mflacy
No prob. Bomberman is updating as well.

Despite the previous rumor, Obama did pick up a SD today; Nancy Drummond of Wyoming.

Thanks to ya too, b0mbrman!

Heh....all I do is run a google news alert and cut and paste, but you're welcome

But back to superdelegates, it looks like Obama only needs five more to hit 2026 on June 3 :Q
http://spreadsheets.google.com...-0Yw80DbqlgeU3FA&gid=1

Also, you'll notice there's a new Montana poll

 

[b0mbrman]

In separate tabs, I also added what two different FL/MI scenarios would look like...

 

[senseamp]

WTF, they want to count FL and MI as half? Even slaves got 3/5th. Hear that FL and MI, you are less than slaves as far as DNC is concerned.

 

[Wreckem]

Originally posted by: senseamp
WTF, they want to count FL and MI as half? Even slaves got 3/5th. Hear that FL and MI, you are less than slaves as far as DNC is concerned.

From a legal standpoint. They should not be counted at all.

 

[jpeyton]

Originally posted by: senseamp
WTF, they want to count FL and MI as half? Even slaves got 3/5th. Hear that FL and MI, you are less than slaves as far as DNC is concerned.

Well that's generous, considering that Hillary said back in January that they should get 0 delegates.

 

[Robor]

Originally posted by: senseamp
WTF, they want to count FL and MI as half? Even slaves got 3/5th. Hear that FL and MI, you are less than slaves as far as DNC is concerned.

:thumbsdown: Fail. Again.

 

[GoingUp]

Looks like the final number needed will change from 2026.

 

[senseamp]

Originally posted by: Robor

Originally posted by: senseamp
WTF, they want to count FL and MI as half? Even slaves got 3/5th. Hear that FL and MI, you are less than slaves as far as DNC is concerned.

:thumbsdown: Fail. Again.

No ?