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Analyst: New Generation In Two Years

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destrekor

Lifer
Nov 18, 2005
28,799
359
126
I'm thinking the next Nintendo system will be 2010, the next Xbox system will probably be late 2010 or sometime in 2011, and the PS4 probably won't release until late 2011 or 2012. Considering it was 6 years in-between the PS2 and PS3 launches (granted, delayed, so it would have been 5 or 5.5 years), and around 5-6 years between PS1 and PS2 launches... 2011-2012 sounds just about right for the PS4 launch. I don't see the PS4 coming out any earlier than Q4 2011. I really do wonder what Microsoft will do... and Nintendo, who the hell knows with them. They're playing a different ballgame then what they played previously. I wonder if they are going to try and match next-gen tech for their next system, and maybe bring it out when the Wii is still going strong so they can double dip in the market... both the casual and hardcore markets.

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mugs

Lifer
Apr 29, 2003
48,920
46
91
Originally posted by: kppanic

In a couple of years hopefully North American internet infrastructure catches up and we should have no problem surfing at much faster speed (i.e. sustained 1000mbps+) and whether this happens or not will dictate the future success of streaming HD content (imagine streaming HD Blu-ray quality movie with our existing internet connection...)

:Q I work in the telecomm industry, and if 1000mbps+ consumer Internet connections are going to happen in the next few years, I must have missed one hell of a memo.
 

CKDragon

Diamond Member
Jan 22, 2001
3,875
0
0
Originally posted by: mugs
Originally posted by: kppanic

In a couple of years hopefully North American internet infrastructure catches up and we should have no problem surfing at much faster speed (i.e. sustained 1000mbps+) and whether this happens or not will dictate the future success of streaming HD content (imagine streaming HD Blu-ray quality movie with our existing internet connection...)

:Q I work in the telecomm industry, and if 1000mbps+ consumer Internet connections are going to happen in the next few years, I must have missed one hell of a memo.

Dude, how long were you asleep?!?
 

destrekor

Lifer
Nov 18, 2005
28,799
359
126
Originally posted by: kppanic
Originally posted by: erwos
You have to look at this in terms of features, not chips. For the next generation of consoles, here are my predictions:

Downloadable content will play a much bigger role than it does now. Expect Microsoft and Nintendo to mimic Sony's predilection for combination downloadable / retail releases. Accordingly, we'll see much more emphasis placed on storage - I predict that _everyone_ will have 4gb of flash onboard, and generic eSATA hard drive support will be standard. I'm personally unsure about card readers or flash drives for games, but I suspect they'll at least be supported for media.

Visually, the target will be 1080p60 with 4x AA (although I'm suspecting Nintendo is going to use a scaler to hit this mark). Shaders will clearly need to be more powerful, too. For audio, I'm going to predict that we'll see at least 7.1 linear PCM, but maybe even real-time TrueHD and DTS-HD MA encoding. Of course, there'll be the usual DD-5.1 / DTS fall-back (maybe Nintendo will even include an SPDIF-out for once!).

Media streaming will also be a big deal. This will shift from just being a "share files on your computer" thing to more of a marketplace where you can buy and rent media.

I'm hoping (but not sure) we'll see more customizable controller options in the future. What I'd really like is a wireless controller "core" that could be placed in various non-standard controllers to enable them to work with any particular console. For instance, DDR pads, guitars, drums, light guns, etc.

Finally, I think that the idea of social gaming will grow tremendously. The real limitation to this in today's consoles is that you can't define a group on its own - you can only define your own friends. I think there's a lot of great ideas that could be done to cater to the casual and competitive crowds on this front, and I'm hoping someone finally does it.

On that note, IMHO emphasis on the storage will not be a big one, or at least the kind of gigantic storage that we think.

In a couple of years hopefully North American internet infrastructure catches up and we should have no problem surfing at much faster speed (i.e. sustained 1000mbps+) and whether this happens or not will dictate the future success of streaming HD content (imagine streaming HD Blu-ray quality movie with our existing internet connection...)

With internet this fast it would mean storing less and downloading more. Imagine playing a game without actual physical discs.

And obviously if any next gen console is released within the next 2 or 3 years it would not predicate the current gaming console.

I don't know... Obviously the computing power would increase in the next gen. But I honestly do not think this fact alone would be their selling point. Hopefully they start working with the developers to decrease this "juicing out" console delay. Give them the blueprint! Give them access to the research labs! haha...

I am sick and tired of this generation console and all the "hype" people create and then the quality of the games we get is sub-par. I mean, lets look at PS3. Its best game for about a year was Resistance Fall of Men. That made me very sad...

mark my words... the internet will be nowhere near that fast for the general broadband customer in the next few years. We have a problem that other countries, like Japan and Britain, don't have... land size. Getting network infrastructure up an running that can handle that kind of throughput AND runs across a country to provide for large markets, just isn't going to happen soon. That's an insanely expensive endeavor that is going to be unique to the US... well it would plague Russia and China too, but they aren't anywhere near us in terms of the demand for that technology. They are starting that tech with what they call Internet 2, but that's for research universities to share data. The Ohio State University was a pioneer in that venture, but us students are provided a connection to a shared internet link to a provider that is not on the Internet2 network. The largest university in the country, and if we are lucky, an individual can pull maybe up to 7mbps down, but rarely can I get that. It comes in spurts.

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