Analyst: New Generation In Two Years

[JPB]

New Generation In Two Years

Eventually, we're going to have to stop calling the PlayStation 3, Xbox 360 and Wii "next-generation consoles" because before too long, a whole new generation will be upon us (time travels fast, friends). And according to GameSpot and Pacific Coast Securities' Evan Wilson, we can expect that next generation to kick off in 2010.

Wilson was talking about EA's ambitious revenue predictions, and then he moved into his expectations for the new set of consoles that will become available in due time. He thinks Nintendo will launch theirs first (presumably, in 2010), followed by Microsoft a year later...but interestingly enough, Wilson made no mention of a PlayStation 4. He moved on to say the next set of Nintendo and Sony portables will drop in 2010 as well, although he didn't specify whether he was talking about whole new systems or just new versions of the DS and PSP. But getting back to the consoles, does it strike anyone else as a little strange that Wilson picked 2010? That's only two years off, after all, and perhaps the reason he didn't mention the PS4 is because Sony keeps saying the PS3 is at the start of a 10-year life cycle.

So if he's correct, it means we'll see something like the Xbox 720 or the Wii2 in a couple years time, and the PS3 will just continue along for another six years? Wouldn't Sony be more inclined to produce another competing system earlier? Well, we know the PS3 hasn't fully realized its exceedingly high potential, so perhaps the PS3 is capable of producing software on par with Xbox 720 titles. Oh well, we'll have to see what transpires over the next few years...and the waiting is half the fun.

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Developer: PS3 Hasn't Been Pushed Yet

By now, we're all quite familiar with the typical cycle of a PlayStation console: when it releases, developers are borderline clueless, and the software is kinda iffy (even though the potential is always obvious). Then, along the course of the system's life cycle, developers pull more and more out of its architecture, eventually gaining a firm grasp of its capabilities. Compare the likes of Final Fantasy XII and God of War II to PS2 launch titles like Summoner and and X-Squad, and it's like looking at games from two different generations on two different consoles.

After the Mirror's Edge presentation at SCEE's PlayStation Day in London this past week, the general manager of DICE Studio told VideoGamer.com that this same thing will happen with the PlayStation 3. Sean Decker made a comparison to the PS2, saying that "it's not until several years down the road that you're ale to squeeze every drop" out of a console. And by the way, Sony has continually stated that the PS3 will have a 10-year life span, so developers have plenty of time. Here's what Decker had to say when asked if any games he's seen have pushed the limits of the PS3:

"Oh no. I've been around for two different console cycles now, this is my third one, and it's always the case that the first several years everybody's exploring the bounds of it, and it's not until several years down the road that you're able to squeeze every drop out of it."

THis is something we've been saying since the launch of the PS3. We can't count how many times we've said it. It's just good to get vindication from another source, because Decker has voiced our sentiments exactly:

"Look at games like God of War. On the PS2 it looks brilliant. Try and do that game at the beginning of the PS2, wow, you would have such a hard time doing that. And the same thing's going to be true for this as well. Over the next several years on all the major platforms you're going to see all the developers squeezing every little bit out of it. It's going to be a while before you really push it to the edge."

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If there is a topic already for this, I couldn't find it.

Discuss ?

 

[RandomFool]

Sounds about right to me. I do think Sony will push a new console out before the PS3 10-year life is over. I doubt they'll let MS (or Nintendo) get to far ahead of them in terms of the technical stuff.

 

[DaveSimmons]

My thoughts in the Kazaam thread

The 360 will probably not be replaced until at least Fall 2010, and the PS3 most likely not until Fall 2011. Both are "good enough" technology for now and both companies want to make profits from their gaming divisions by selling them as long as possible.

There is also a good chance that both companies will follow Nintendo's lead and make the new models "two (old model)s duct-taped together": A 100% backwards compatible design with just more RAM, more and faster cores, and more / faster cores in the graphics processor.

Both companies are also fairly likely to not be so bleeding edge: since TVs will stay at 1080p for the forseeable future the 720 and PS4 only need to be 3-4 times as powerful as current models to move from the current 720p for most games to a solid, stable framerate at 1080p with a bit more eye candy.

So: buy now and you'll get at least a couple of years of new games, probably more like 3-4 years since there will be an overlap between old and new consoles. Microsoft owns the rights to cost-reduce the 360 (unlike the original xbox) so they have no reason to kill it off as fast as they did last time, and there are still good PS2 games being made.

With backwards-compatible hardware it may even be cost-effective to keep making more games for all of 360/720 and PS3/PS4: a scalable engine like in the PC Half-Life just has 2 code paths for graphics with all other code shared. With duct-tape new consoles the work of supporting 360 and 720 might just mean building the game code twice with different switches for the graphics code.

 

[blurredvision]

The whole "10-year life cycle" of the PS3 that Sony was touting never meant that they'd have just one console for 10 years. Their plans involve overlapping console's life cycles, much like the PS2 and PS3 do right now. They expect the PS3 to still be a viable platform even when they launch the PS4.

 

[CKDragon]

Originally posted by: blurredvision
The whole "10-year life cycle" of the PS3 that Sony was touting never meant that they'd have just one console for 10 years. Their plans involve overlapping console's life cycles, much like the PS2 and PS3 do right now. They expect the PS3 to still be a viable platform even when they launch the PS4.

I agree 100% that's what will happen.

However, I think that in the early PS3 press conferences when Ken Kutaragi stood up at the game shows talking about a 10-year life cycle, he certainly wasn't trying to dissuade the general population from thinking the PS3 was powerful enough to last 10 years on its own. So some of the less-than-keen observers walked away thinking that the PS4 won't be due until 2016 and we still see evidence of that kind of thinking all over video game forums today.

 

[RESmonkey]

No, not 2 years. 3 at the very least.

 

[JPB]

Do you all think, the *next* Nintendo will be on the PS3 and 360's level of graphics ?

How awesome would a Legend Of Zelda title be with that level of graphics

 

[DaveSimmons]

I can see the next nintendo being at least at the 360's level since it will be another year or two and the 360 Arcade is already close to the wii's price.

Nintendo has no reason to hurry though as long as they can keep selling older, cheaper to manufacture tech at the $249 price as fast as they can make them.

 

[eelw]

If the Wii continues to sell like hotcakes, I don't see Nintendo launching the next console in that timeframe. A replacement for the DS, sure though.

 

[ChaoZ]

Originally posted by: JPB
Do you all think, the *next* Nintendo will be on the PS3 and 360's level of graphics ?

How awesome would a Legend Of Zelda title be with that level of graphics

Not very awesome with the standards a few years from now.

 

[DivideBYZero]

Nintendo first. Expect them to go with a two tier console strategy. Wii for family entertainment from now till 2012, high end console launched in 2010.

Mark my words.

 

[JPB]

Originally posted by: ChaoZ

Originally posted by: JPB
Do you all think, the *next* Nintendo will be on the PS3 and 360's level of graphics ?

How awesome would a Legend Of Zelda title be with that level of graphics

Not very awesome with the standards a few years from now.

So your saying in 2 or 3 years, a Zelda game won't look great to you with the Gears 2 type graphics ?

 

[darkswordsman17]

Here's my thoughts. I agree the PS3 10 year life does not mean we won't see PS4 before then, it'll be the same as the PS2/PS3. A lot of people were glum about the PS3, but the fact is, it really did not hurt Sony, since they're quickly making ground now, when people are finally starting to move beyond the PS2. I'm hoping Microsoft puts in more time and doesn't rush their next console like the 360. Of course, I'm not too sure how it will turn out since I thought they had created an internal team that was supposed to be developing the processors for it, however I'm going to guess they aren't far enough along. They have to be careful, because if they just go with something, they might end up losing out big with a shift in the computing world (to highly parallel processing), but at the same time, I'm going to guess that Microsoft, as much as anybody knows where processing is headed in the future. Nintendo is in no rush, as the Wii is still having quite rampant success, and they can ride it for a while. The bad news is that the Wii and DS has shown them that technological superiority is not everything (and to be honest, I think its as much that Nintendo doesn't know how to compete on that front that is keeping them from doing it) so that means we might see yet another not comparable to the PS4/Xbox system, but at the same time, they've got the money to be able to throw around to compete if they want to.

Technologically, I think we'll see something quite a bit different from Microsoft. The reason I say this is that with DirectX 11, they are going to move to support Ray Tracing, which will be a big step for graphics. Now, I'm fairly confident that this will be fairly heavily tied to their next console's development as well. Of course, as you may know, it requires a lot of processing power, and is very well suited for highly parallel setups. I'm not sure if this will mean they go with one or more multi-core CPUs, I don't see GPUs going away since they're maybe better suited in the short term for this type of task (and also are able to render prior games). I think both Sony and Microsoft have been and are hard at work on the software side of development, and I think that is the key area that will benefit developers in the future (for instance some have predicted that when ray tracing takes off, we might see games return to software rendering only).

 

[imported_Imp]

Well, if they do, I'll just get out the blow torch and tweezers.

 

[Schadenfroh]

I sure hope not...

 

[DaveSimmons]

Intel is pushing ray tracing but Carmack doesn't think it will work well as soon as intel hopes for.

Also, shifting to a new architechture caused development delays and an initial bad reputation for the PS3 in year one. I expect Microsoft and Sony will look at that history and stay away from changing much if possible except (as I predicted above) taking the old CPU / GPU designs and adding more cores, RAM and maybe speed.

 

[randomlinh]

Originally posted by: DivideBYZero
Nintendo first. Expect them to go with a two tier console strategy. Wii for family entertainment from now till 2012, high end console launched in 2010.

Mark my words.

I would like to see this happen.

 

[bearxor]

I just thought about this the other day. It's hard to think that the 360 is almost three years old now. I certainly expect it to be replaced by it's 5th birthday in 2010.

 

[ManBearPig]

And you guys made fun of me when i asked if it was dumb to buy one now

 

[Wuzup101]

I'd say that 2010 might be a bit early. I agree with the others, that the 10-year life cycle that sony is talking about has to do with them continuing to support the PS3 after the next PS release (much like the PS2 now). The 360 and PS3 still have plenty to offer to developers right now (especially the PS3 which is the newest console). Because TVs will likely remain at 1080p for some time (because extra resolution really isn't practical... especially for normal consumer size TVs), the newer consoles can focus on other things rather than just trying to push resolution. I'm hoping for everything rendered in 1080p at 60fps with some AA or whatnot. This should easily be obtainable by 2010-2011 at console prices. I'd also love to see multi monitor support (wasn't that one of the original things they wanted to do with the PS3?).

I'm sure we will start seeing prototypes and such for the new consoles by the beginning of 2010; however, it doesn't seem likely that the companies will be rushing to get a new system out the door. I think MS has learned it's lesson about what happens when you rush things out the door, and they won't make that mistake again. The PS3 is still pretty damn NEW as far as tech is concerned... and it's just hitting it's stride as far as a game catalog is concerned... The Wii continues to sell like none other... however, if the big N does put out a "hardcore high end" console on the same cycle as the new xbox/ps (HD graphics, same tech, similar prices, etc...) they do have to realize that they won't be able to count on soccer moms and grandparents buying it (it won't be direct competition to the Wii either). I think Nintendo could do very well if they launched a new system on par with the new xbox and playstation; however, I have no idea if they intend to. Nintendo already has some of the best in house games... and with similar hardware... they would also get all the big developers working on that console. The Wii would probably continue to sell well, make them a butt load of cash with old tech, etc...

 

[erwos]

You have to look at this in terms of features, not chips. For the next generation of consoles, here are my predictions:

Downloadable content will play a much bigger role than it does now. Expect Microsoft and Nintendo to mimic Sony's predilection for combination downloadable / retail releases. Accordingly, we'll see much more emphasis placed on storage - I predict that _everyone_ will have 4gb of flash onboard, and generic eSATA hard drive support will be standard. I'm personally unsure about card readers or flash drives for games, but I suspect they'll at least be supported for media.

Visually, the target will be 1080p60 with 4x AA (although I'm suspecting Nintendo is going to use a scaler to hit this mark). Shaders will clearly need to be more powerful, too. For audio, I'm going to predict that we'll see at least 7.1 linear PCM, but maybe even real-time TrueHD and DTS-HD MA encoding. Of course, there'll be the usual DD-5.1 / DTS fall-back (maybe Nintendo will even include an SPDIF-out for once!).

Media streaming will also be a big deal. This will shift from just being a "share files on your computer" thing to more of a marketplace where you can buy and rent media.

I'm hoping (but not sure) we'll see more customizable controller options in the future. What I'd really like is a wireless controller "core" that could be placed in various non-standard controllers to enable them to work with any particular console. For instance, DDR pads, guitars, drums, light guns, etc.

Finally, I think that the idea of social gaming will grow tremendously. The real limitation to this in today's consoles is that you can't define a group on its own - you can only define your own friends. I think there's a lot of great ideas that could be done to cater to the casual and competitive crowds on this front, and I'm hoping someone finally does it.

 

[austin316]

Originally posted by: RandomFool
Sounds about right to me. I do thing Sony will push a new console out before the PS3 10-year life is over. I doubt they'll let MS (or Nintendo) get to far ahead of them in terms of the technical stuff.

The PS3 will probably have a 10-year life-cycle before its retired, but a new Sony system will be released prior to 10 years. Just as it is now, with the PS2 still having games released even AFTER the PS3 hit store shelves.

 

[shingletingle]

Originally posted by: Kazaam
And you guys made fun of me when i asked if it was dumb to buy one now

So you think it's a good idea to wait for the next round of consoles? And then when those come out, you will think you should wait until the next round after that?

I fail to see why it would be dumb to buy one now. Stop over-analyzing things.

 

[kppanic]

Originally posted by: erwos
You have to look at this in terms of features, not chips. For the next generation of consoles, here are my predictions:

Downloadable content will play a much bigger role than it does now. Expect Microsoft and Nintendo to mimic Sony's predilection for combination downloadable / retail releases. Accordingly, we'll see much more emphasis placed on storage - I predict that _everyone_ will have 4gb of flash onboard, and generic eSATA hard drive support will be standard. I'm personally unsure about card readers or flash drives for games, but I suspect they'll at least be supported for media.

Visually, the target will be 1080p60 with 4x AA (although I'm suspecting Nintendo is going to use a scaler to hit this mark). Shaders will clearly need to be more powerful, too. For audio, I'm going to predict that we'll see at least 7.1 linear PCM, but maybe even real-time TrueHD and DTS-HD MA encoding. Of course, there'll be the usual DD-5.1 / DTS fall-back (maybe Nintendo will even include an SPDIF-out for once!).

Media streaming will also be a big deal. This will shift from just being a "share files on your computer" thing to more of a marketplace where you can buy and rent media.

I'm hoping (but not sure) we'll see more customizable controller options in the future. What I'd really like is a wireless controller "core" that could be placed in various non-standard controllers to enable them to work with any particular console. For instance, DDR pads, guitars, drums, light guns, etc.

Finally, I think that the idea of social gaming will grow tremendously. The real limitation to this in today's consoles is that you can't define a group on its own - you can only define your own friends. I think there's a lot of great ideas that could be done to cater to the casual and competitive crowds on this front, and I'm hoping someone finally does it.

On that note, IMHO emphasis on the storage will not be a big one, or at least the kind of gigantic storage that we think.

In a couple of years hopefully North American internet infrastructure catches up and we should have no problem surfing at much faster speed (i.e. sustained 1000mbps+) and whether this happens or not will dictate the future success of streaming HD content (imagine streaming HD Blu-ray quality movie with our existing internet connection...)

With internet this fast it would mean storing less and downloading more. Imagine playing a game without actual physical discs.

And obviously if any next gen console is released within the next 2 or 3 years it would not predicate the current gaming console.

I don't know... Obviously the computing power would increase in the next gen. But I honestly do not think this fact alone would be their selling point. Hopefully they start working with the developers to decrease this "juicing out" console delay. Give them the blueprint! Give them access to the research labs! haha...

I am sick and tired of this generation console and all the "hype" people create and then the quality of the games we get is sub-par. I mean, lets look at PS3. Its best game for about a year was Resistance Fall of Men. That made me very sad...

 

[RaiderJ]

I don't really care what or when, but I just hope everyone decides to at least stick to an audio/video standard. Can't we expect that 1080p (HDMI) with SPDIF is a minimum? Hopefully regular SATA hard drives will be standard as well - downloading games would be great along with "installing" games from a disc to increase read times.